And so this is Christmas ..

Almost there .. but, not likely to see any snow, where I live.

Gonna share the day, on a dam, with family (like 30 people), and just veg.

Starting to look back at the yr, and what, if anything I achieved.

1. Played a lot more golf .. this was good and bad .. the crowd I play with, are elderly, and a few pop-off every now and again. The troubling thing, is that when I play with them, they seem fine .. and develop cancer, a few weeks/mths later, and seem to not last more than 6 mths.

Its a sick disease - and u really just gotta give thanks, when u wake up in the morning.

Best round of the yr .. a 83 .. and I def have the potential to go lower - especially if I put some work in at the gym. Been playing squash with the kids, and I have a few mths, before they beat me into the ground, so .. am enjoying it.

2. Watched a deal of cricket .. and the markets / technology are changing. U have to keep moving, to stay ahead, and try and pay the bills ..

3. Really enjoying some Vlogs .. I must give a shout-out to this one .. its about 20 Vlogs in .. and its v decent : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLTP4Ns4v8EsVS0DVGugQrQ

4. Spent 7 weeks in the USA, and looking forward to returning, next yr .. hopeful we can mix in some sports betting, and even more hopeful, more states legalise it, within 2 yrs.

Thanks for all the postive messages .. am short various financial indexes, and long dollar. Expect the worst !!

Anyway .. basically, more of the same .. hope u all have a peaceful time over the festive season.

Cricket in India ...

I was watching some poker Vlogs, and youtube suddenly suggested a few new videos.

From a link, I found http://www.betfaircrickettips.com/ , which on the website, is ingeniously changed to Befaircrickettips.com, so, they don't get grief from the exchange.

For an explanation, of what some of the terms on the website mean, here is another video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLEoU89xW2k

Its interesting stuff, and u can see why India sends so many callers to grounds, relaying ball by ball info.

Its a massive market. I was exposed to Indian Bookies, maybe 10 years ago, and watched one setting the 'rate' .. it was rhythmical .. like the beat of a drum, how the quote would go 34-36, 34-36, 35-37 ...

The bet size, was enormous // not like the 2 bit online bookies  - which leads me to a pet grief, how S.African bookies, can quote .. for tomorrows T20 match : 70c Warriors - 101c Lions ..

For a start, Lions beat them in Durban .. leaving aside the theft of the pricing ...

Win-rates of poker v exchange players

I have been viewing a lot of Vlogs (Video logs), put out by 'successful' poker players, who want to maybe create a second income stream.

This is a good idea .. it doesn't take too long, and the video editing process, has gotten a lot easier.

One day, I might consider doing a Vlog, but, its maybe premature.

One of the videos, took a decent look at win-rate, of what a pro poker player, (in Vegas), might make.

Vegas is a cheap place to live - games run 24/7, and has the good/bad features, of a gambling mecca.

A medium pro, might look to win 10 Big Blinds per hour, after maybe 3 mths of study. For No Limit Hold-em, the games are typically, $1/2 .. so, the small blind is $1, the Big Blind $2. If u play 40 hours a week, you might make $800 a week, $3200 a mth.

That's for an accomplished pro .. so, maybe 7 BB is more realistic .. which equates to $560 a week, or $2240 a mth. Its ok, etc, but, with expenses .. we haven't really discussed if the pro has a family etc, its not really enough.

The games do run higher .. $2/$5, or $5/$10 are available .. and the skill level to beat 2/5, isn't that much higher then 1/2, but, the bankroll needed to sustain yourself, during the inevitable downswings, is much bigger.

Anyway, I was thinking, of the return, an exchange player, can make per hour.

Its obviously less well documented. A few blogs will post P/L cols for the day, but, what u really want to see, is the Premium Charge statement .. which gives weekly P/L, and cumulative numbers.

If a trader sits at his desk, and churns out 40 hours .. whats his expected return ? For me, a 7 hr test day .. using  a bank of £10k, I would like to think £200-£400 a day is expected return. If I traded horse-racing, it would be considerably less. How many BB / Hr does that equate to ?

Say £50 an hr .. is not so far away, from the $50/hr, a $2/$5 pro would expect to make, especially if the exchange trader then has to pay PC.

The lives are roughly similar .. sedentary jobs, 'achieving' nothing, but accumulating cash. Its possible the exchange trader could automate some of his stuff .. but, this is easier said than done .. I am getting v suspicious of the automated programs, which try to make u believe, 'any one can do it' - I certainly cant - and I have really tried.

Struggle Street - (fully parked in)

Thanks for the encouraging messages ..

Not much has changed, if anything, it has got worse, with the S.African cricket authorities, deciding, no courtsiders will be allowed in stadia. Only 4 odd games have gone by, since the ruling (probably brought about, as they lost key sponsor of domestic T20, maybe becos of a number of players, being involved in match fixing).

On top of this, the Indian government outlawed high value banknotes, which meant the local bookies had some liquidity problems, (which I am sure they will get around), but, for now, liquidity on a lot of games, has been affected (downwards).

For now, its a waiting game, and am using the time to do chill a bit, and look at my big reds on the financials. Its not a pleasant start to the day.

//  Footnote //

Was composing this post, whilst watching the Zim v Windies ODI, in which, I had a decent Red.

Game ended in a Tie (all bets void), .. maybe, things are turning.

Trump .. at least it will make a good BBC radio comedy.

Done my absolutes on Trump, and am v depressed.

Lost a mid-6 figs on the actual market, and am losing considerably greater amount, on the financials.

Gonna look for a new job.

Quite a bit to catch up on ..

It never ends.

Readers/experienced Advantage Gamblers will remember the Phil Ivey exploits of the last 2 yrs, and we have just had the judgement from the Borgata case. Its a complex judgement, which may have ramifications for other gamblers, but, basically, Ivey was not guilty of committing a fraud, but, did breach his contract with the casino, and now probably owes the $10m (which they paid him).

Maybe Ivey will pay, maybe he goes insolvent, maybe he appeals.

On the Uk front, the Competition and Marketing Authority, is looking at potential breaches in consumer law, by the gambling industry. Bookmakers have some v bad press (for good reason), and I hope some reforms are made. It would be nice, if they also take a look at exchanges, abusing their dominant power.

https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/online-gambling

I had some correspondence re cheating machines, and the ability to stack a deck, so, the dealer wins, (wherever u cut it) .. which I found amazing.

https://www.benjoffe.com/holdem

Be careful out there ..

Bad timing or what ?

So, have been binge watching 'Narcos' .. a series largely about Pablo Escobar .. some 18 or so episodes in, and am half-way thru, an episode called 'Exit El-Patron' .. from which I surmise he gets his just deserts, when Netflix appears to have been hit, by a DDOS attack.

A trifle frustrating .. but, allows me to wander off on another tangent.

One of the recent podcasts I listened to, was about super chickens :

https://www.ted.com/talks/margaret_heffernan_why_it_s_time_to_forget_the_pecking_order_at_work?language=en

Its an interesting idea, that, for corporations to excel, u need collaboration.

It occurred to me, there is little collaboration between pro-gamblers .. unless they are part of a syndicate, and, maybe its a deficiency.

Sharing expertise is hard to quantify -- u don't know the value of a spreadsheet, or 15 yrs trading experience, but, its probably something that should be explored.

Quite how u do it, is another problem.

Digging deeper ...

As Advantage gamblers, we need to question things, and ask the next question.

This can be tiring, as there are fewer resources u can trust, and fewer knowledgeable people, willing to share info .. but, still, it needs to be done.

A while ago, my local casino, banned the use of cell-phones, from the poker table. I thought they were just being miserable, as they already had policies of no food at table, no free drinks, and were in the throws of putting in policies, which would lead to the room closing, organically.

Last yr, it became public knowledge, that it was possible to 'edge-sort' playing cards, and skilled professionals, could recognise a cards value, from the careful observation of the back of the card.

I just came across a video, where a hacked android phone, could observe the sides of a randomly shuffled deck, and accurately predict the top 2 cards of the deck.

https://youtu.be/x6LAE35fWDo

The presenter has an irritating french-Canadian accent, but, if u can get past it, the power of the program being sold, was pretty impressive. (Basically, it uses the phones in-built camera, to match previous pictures, of the edge of the deck. - Ok, so, u need to get hold of the deck .. but, for home games etc, this would be trivial)

Asking the next question .. if it can spot a card, from the top of a deck, there is no reason it couldn't reveal the ranking, of any casino game, where the hold-card is dealt face down (to the dealer).

There are quite a few casino games like this .. I wonder how much, they have got away with. $3000 or so, would be a fairly cheap investment .. if, u couldnt prep your own phone.

How Much ??

Ok, So, I do a fair amount of travelling, and sometimes get the munchies.

Airports are never the cheapest places to get supplies .. but, it gives u opportunities to test your personal EV levels.

I walked into a sweet emporium (Non Uk), and found these ..

Ok, So we Know they have a retail price of £1 in the Uk .. what can they reasonably cost ?

Local equivalent, of maybe £1.50 would be reasonable .. £4.35, is probably not.

I asked to see the owner, and debated how his pricing mechanism worked .. and ( where were the police ?)

He didnt see my humour .. but after holding up .. maybe 4 people in the line, paid the money - which I instantly regretted.

If .. as pro-gamblers, we havent got reasonable expected returns .. it will all fall apart. This, was a clear pass, and I failed the test .. which, is a wake-up call.

As it happens .. I have been on a fair run. the tipping verification site, tippingsports.com now has me down as 11 from 14 winning tips .. a 78% strike-rate.

It will need to continue .. if I am willing to pay 4x, for other shit.

An Apple a day ..

The Gambling Commission has appointed a new Chairman :

Bill Moyes, who has been heavily criticised in his role as Chairman of the Dental Council.

Quite what, Teeth, and Gambling have in common, I am not sure .. but, maybe, we shall see the GC take a bite out of the Bookies.

Hes got the gig for 5 yrs .. 55k a yr ..

Betting Podcasts

As regular subscribers of this podcast will know, I like Podcasts.

A new one has come on the horizon : https://soundcloud.com/user-384487594 which shows a decent amount of ingenuity from Matchbook, which, is a site, I am gaining a degree of respect for.

I am fairly active on some of the Matchbook markets .. it will be interesting to see if they dissect some of my trades ..

Anyway, new content is always welcome .. especially if its well produced, and has decent participants.

I wish them well.

Wacky Races

Its been a hell of a week.

They say a week is a longtime in Politics, and I can see why.

Clinton once looked clear, and only had to jump the final fence, but, now, the exchange markets, have drifted her from 1.45 - maybe 2 weeks ago, to 1.65 or so, on the back of coughing/collapsing, and Trumps' marketing savvy.

Lets be clear, I think Clinton is a v weak candidate - has little personal appeal, and clearly has issues with the truth .. but, Trump, says things, which just make no sense, and are both politically naive, and incorrect.

Trump is presently available to lay . in as much size as most would want, at 2.94. Clinton is 1.62.

The markets are a traders dream .. and if u have a view, and want to market-make .. u can make a decent book. (That is .. if u live outside the US .. u cant bet on politics in the land-of-the-free).

A v respected website, which has called the last few US elections, almost perfectly .. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ , makes Clinton / Trump 60:40.

That makes Clinton 1.6x .. which equates to the betting markets, but, I feel there is a disconnect.

I have heard stories, that it costs relatively little, for campaign managers to pump money into betting markets, distorting things. Its more natural, to expect it to happen, closer to the race .. but, $25m traded on Betfair .. is peanuts  .. considering presidential elections cost, literally billions. (2012 cost $2 billion, and this yrs, is expected to cost $5billion)

Conspiracy ?

Who knows ? All I know .. is that I have waited all yr, to Lay Trump. At sub 3.0, I have had to get involved.

For those who want to listen to excellent political podcasts, take your pick .. its a big market:

https://player.fm/en/featured/election-2016

Setting fire to money

In a different life, I was invited to lunch, with a legend of bookmaking. ( I was a peanut, and was .. frankly, in awe of him)

These lunches, tend to be v long, with a v big bill at the end, and u are never allowed to pay.

One day, I decided to take a stand, and try to pay.

The bookmaker, took out a roll of 50 pound notes, placed them in a pile, on a plate in the table, and took out his lighter.

He said, I had a choice, let him pay the bill, or watch, 2x the amount, go up in smoke.

I was thinking this thru, when, he took out a lighter, and lit the corner of the first 50 pound note. It quickly took .. and flames started. It wasnt my money, but, felt it wrong, to let them burn.

So, I put them out.

I was reminded of this, listening, to a podcast, where the main guest, was Alan Boston.

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2016/09/episode-186-alan-boston-fixed/

I have often listened to his interviews, and found them informative,honest and entertaining.

He seems to have been a great friend to many, and hope he gets a few breaks .. we all need them.

Gambling Commission - In-Play (in-running) betting : position paper

As it says on the tin :

Overview of their position :

In-play betting

What is in-play betting?

In-play betting (or in-running or live betting as it is also known) is betting while the event is actually taking place, for example, placing a bet on a horserace while the race is being run, or on a football match whilst it is being played. This form of betting takes place mainly, but not exclusively, on sporting events.

In-play betting is predominantly an online activity with bets being made via the internet using either a betting exchange or a traditional bookmaker’s website, but it also takes place in betting shops or over the phone.

What are the risks to the licensing objectives from in-play betting?

We do not consider, at this time, that in-play betting represents a significant risk to the licensing objectives over and above any other type of gambling. We do however acknowledge that, like other forms of gambling, in-play betting potentially raises a number of issues that could impact on the licensing objectives. These issues can be distilled into three groups:

• fairness and transparency of the betting
• integrity of the betting
• risk of harm within the betting medium.

Fairness and openness

With regard to the issues potentially affecting fairness and openness, such as speed of feeds or use of ‘bots’, in-play betting does not appear to generate specific risks to the licensing objectives as long as bettors are sufficiently aware of their position and the respective positions of other bettors and the betting operators.

This includes ensuring that any information deficit is clearly understood, as are any built-in time delays to operator systems. We do not consider it necessary to intervene to prevent some players using technology advantages, such as faster connectivity speeds, to gain a competitive edge provided it is clear to all players that this can be done.

Betting integrity

In relation to betting integrity, there is potential for individuals to exploit in-play betting for criminal or otherwise inappropriate gain. However, other forms of betting also have similar potential for exploitation. We do not consider that in–play betting requires further regulatory controls to those already applied within our wider efforts to maintain integrity in sports betting.

Risk of harm

People who bet in-play may place a higher number of bets in a shorter time period than people who bet in other ways, as in-play betting offers more opportunities to bet. Some studies have shown that placing a high number of bets can be an indication that a bettor may be at risk of harm from gambling. We do not consider that someone who bets in-play is automatically at increased risk of harm from gambling, but expect that licensees will monitor all bettors for signs of risk as required by our Licence conditions and codes of practice (LCCP).

We conclude that the risk to the licensing objectives from in-play betting is appropriately managed through the current regulatory framework and controls applied by licensees. We will continue to monitor in-play betting for fairness and openness as part of our overall betting compliance programme, and take its particular characteristics into account in our wider work on integrity in sports (and other) betting and gambling related harm.

Full paper can be downloaded here :

http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/pdf/In-running-betting-position-paper.pdf

Tipping isnt so hard .. u just gotta be lucky

Still on holiday .. and sort of whimsical .. especially reading some of the entertaining slanging matches, on offer, on certain blogs.

I have never belonged to a tipping service, and never wanted to start one .. but, I was sufficiently impressed by the ingenuity of Bfbotmanager (which, I dont use), to start a tipping account, on tippingsports.com

After hours of research (ok, maybe 5 mins), I have stuck up 7 tips, under the disguised tipster account, of Mr-Cricket, and gone 6 out of 7, with the only loser, trading evens, from 3.75 advised.

The tips are showing a 5.34 unit level stake profit.

I am not sure what to do now. Do I just quit ? Become v selective .. so, users are begging for more ? or rock on, and go for the home-run ?

Will have to have a deep think.

Absolutely, definitely on Holiday

Some people, (idiots), might say I am am permanent holiday .. but, they know nothing .. (there are lots of these types out there .. there has to be, just look at some of the markets).

Anyway .. am freeing up time in calender, to, have a proper go at doing nothing .. the problem is, the more I don't do things .. the more stuff crosses my mind, that needs to be done.

One of the things I am thinking about, is developing software for Matchbook. Currently, there appears to be 2 products for the site .. Geeks Toy and BfBotmanager, and I don't particularly like the current interface. So, am mulling whether to get involved with them, to ask them/pay them ? to change things, or just write another, from scratch .. based on Gruss.

Matchbook have been v helpful so far .. and are obviously trying to grow market share.

If I have the energy, I will promote the site  .. but, I cant really do that, without software .. so, either the holiday goes out the window, or, something else has to give.

Will see.

As I mentioned in a previous post, Bfbotmanager has a sister site .. tippingsports.com, where u can become a tipster .. and, if u are any good .. can maybe sell your tips. I started an account .. its free to follow, for now .. but, am 3/3 on my first few tips  (9/1 treble). Nothing wrong with that.

The price of patience

Advantage gamblers need many disciplines .. one of which, is definitely self-control.

Self-control can form the realm of discipline of ones bank-roll, the avoidance of tilt .. and, in the general way, u go about helping others.

Writing a blog .. u get many novice gamblers, who ask 'stupid' questions. Stupid is probably wrong .. lets say, basic questions - They should have researched, and gone about trying to use my time, by asking a better question.

I am tired .. as is Bob Dancer .. if u dont know, do some google searches .. and have had enough of just plain giving.

Its taken me 15 yrs to learn these skills .. I refuse to donate them, any longer.

Book results, and a few other things

Finished listening to Mike Sextons, Lifes a gamble.. and, its a decent way to spend a few hrs.

He had the good fortune, to have some great associates, during his early years in Vegas, and, being hard-working and trustworthy, seems to have enjoyed the ride. We all have leaks, and, am pretty sure he regrets being so addicted to sports betting . but, hey, no ones perfect.

I am really uncomfortable, by the way the new Paddy Power/Betfair merger, has further sidelined the exchange. In the latest results, sportsbook revenue grew by 20%, exchange by 3%. Its hard to be positive, if u are an exchange player .. and, am looking for other avenues.

https://www.paddypowerbetfair.com/~/media/Files/P/Paddy-Power-Betfair/documents/interim-results-2016-presentation.pdf

Manual traders, seem to me, to have the worst of it, on the exchanges .. especially as there is no differentiation in Premium Charge, between manual users, and those that have automated strategies.

I have looked at a few more betting tools, and BFBotmanager, is interesting. The software interface still needs work, but, they have a v interesting tipster site, from where people can buy strategies, to load into the software, from winning tipsters. This is a decent idea, and have started a tipping account.

My free dissemination of info on twitter, will be reduced dramatically .. like 95% .. there is no point, giving freeloaders info .. no-one pays, and, am tired of the overhead.

Some books to have a look at ..

I have always respected Mike Sexton - poker ambassador, and a big-cheese at Party Poker.

He tells his story, in - Lifes a Gamble .. and, it has some amazing stories.

Hes been in action his whole life .. but, it shows, just how much u can make, when u get it right, in stock market ventures.

His shares in Party Gaming, would have been worth $500 million, .. if he had not sold, 6 mths before, launch - for $15 million. The other partners gave him another $15 million, when they cashed in .. and $30m .. is not chump change, .. but, even so.

Have just bought - Tales from the Pit .. and will try read in the next day or so ..

The final book .. below, is one I have heard discussed many times, and, am sure its v useful, for USA based gamblers. Will add to my reading pile ..

Traffic cones

I have often wondered, whats it like to go to a cricket match, in fancy dress . and, if I went, what would I go as ?

England has a merry assortment of characters, who like to dress up, and u see a motley selection of random individuals.

My favourites, are cookie monsters, sylvester, minions, bananas .. but of late, a growing trend, has been that of traffic cones .. to mimic, the sheer vastness of them, on every highway.

Its not much of a statement .. which is the way the British tend to do things .. understated ..

In the 2 months since the Brexit vote, the currency has devalued by over 15%, subsidies from the EU have been put on hold, valuable jobs, in the research arena, have been given to other countries, despite England having some of the best candidates.

I am no longer, so sure, Brexit will be a net positive for England .. and feel it will drag out .. a really long time.

2nd Test - England v Pakistan - Manchester (where it always rains)

So, we got the money, in round 1.

Pakistan deserved to win, but, if Stokes/Anderson come back, I think Eng are v decent favs, and would have to lay the 4.0 Pak.

Weather seems unsettled .. might get some disruptions .. one to watch.

4 days out :

Eng 2.02

Pak 4.1

Draw 3.85

(I am on the draw .. for now)

///

Eve of test .. weather picture got better, and am looking at a red book .. wont be the first time, I have gone into a test like that, and wont be the last .. will handle it.

Money for Eng ..

Eng 1.88

Pak 3.85

Draw 4.7

My net position s effectively laying Pak at 5.0, draw no bet .. not great, but, not the worst.

Will update the blog when I feel like it .. no one ever gives me a dime, so, its just for my own amusement anyway.

///

End Day 1 :

Eng used a v good toss, pretty well, and for me, Pak already all but, cant win.


Eng 1.43

Pak 18

Draw 4.0

Weather forecast for Sunday decidely iffy .. a little surprised draw is not trading a little shorter, especially given how pitch has played. U can def argue, Anderson/Broad will be good enuf, and thats a decent argument - but, have the draw, well on-side.

Current Book :

Eng +7 units

Pak  -12 units

Draw +24 units

I traded the day well .. someone kept offering 5.0+ Draw .. thats the sort of offer, I find hard to resist.

COP Day 3 .. Eng 490 ahead, batting again (which social media went crazy about .. which is the sort of thing it does).

Eng 1.1 chances, which is probably generous. I think Cook declares with maybe 50 more .. and they win pretty easy .. weather doesnt seem so bad.

I have flat/losing book .. but, I can live with it. (Going for Pak to trade sub 50, and against draw).

1st Test - England v Pakistan - Lords

Pre-game lays of England, looked at times, +Ev, and -Ev, and at times, it was the sort of 1st 2 days, where u could just leave up reverse trades, and leave them.

Anyway, after 2 days, of mkt love for England, the mkt may have to rethink.

Eng currently 86 behind in 1st dig .. 3 wkts left.

Eng 1.96

Pak 2.68

Draw 8.2

Eng against spin, seem unsure (lets put it kindly), but, Pak will always battle to score runs, given their long tail .. so, the test seems well poised.

Interesting 1st session, Day 3 .. if Eng get skittled quick .. Pak will be favs ??

Not sure how the mkt will stomach this .. and, with current prices, slightly prefer being with England - thou, no doubt, the mkt will jump on the England tail wkts.

/////

End day 3 --- Pak 281-8 net .. and mkt has both sides 2.02, give or take. (( Both sides have been favs, multiple times))

Mk love back for England, and could easily see new ball/early wkts/20-0 England, touch 1.6x .. but, given spin/wearing pitch, feel its the sort of lay, u should leave, and take the dog for a walk .. it will be too painful to watch.

I am surprised Pak are not decent favs, and have a position with them .. which, I expect to increase, as the bat-shit crazy prices evolve.

Lets hope ..

Gambling with an Edge - Website

The podcast finally has a home on the web, where many, many valuable interviews and references are listed.

If u are involved with gambling for a living, u need to see this :

Gamblingwithanedge.com

Keep Clam and Proofread

The generally, miserable summer in England continues apace, with more games either shortened or called off.

This has given me more time .. travelling to the scheduled cricket games, which, seem purposefully, to be as far away as the previous day as possible.

I have listened to some quality stuff : (via audible app)

The Silkworm - by J.K Rowling .. (Robert Galbraith) is as good a fictional book, as I have read, in a v long time, and would totally commend it. Its the 2nd book in a series, so, maybe read her debut, under an assumed name first .. but, its not necccessary.

Sri Lanka were generally, v mediocre, and made England look good.

I am pleased Pakistan are here to play, and hope Amir (fast bowler, banned for 5 yrs, for taking bribes for spot fixing), is given a fair chance.

I think England at 1.75 or so, to win at Lords, was crazy .. especially now Anderson/Stokes wont play. They are now 2.00 .. and still think they are worth opposing.

Trawling the net .. this was a fun poker video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StfWM8ns_9U#t=433.098706

More of the same ... Apple - U are rotten to the core

I have a list of companies I wont give the time of day to, and Apple and Virgin Trains, are right up there.

The customer service is pathetic, rude, and unhelpful.

They genuinely think they are doing u a a favour, letting u, buy their wares.

When a recent apple Ipad stoped charging, I was forced to waste 15 mins on the website, to book an appointment on the 'Genius' Bar. U cant book on the website .. they don't let u know this .. but, expect u to walk into the shop, to be given a slot, 1-2 hrs later, when it suits them.

No apologies for anything .. just, suck it up. Then, they are not allowed to open the piece of crap .. but, can let u upgrade to a replacement model, for not far short of full cost. Complete xxxxx, IMHO, I hope they go bust.

Brexit - Decent Arb

Since the tragic death of Jo Cox, sterling has had a fantastic run, gaining 600 basis points, from 1.40, to 1.46.

Some forecasts from the city, worked from options, seems to indicate an implied probability of Britain staying in Europe, of about 1.2x.

Current price on Betfair, is 1.40. Looks too big, whichever way u gonna vote.

//

1 pm, Next day, Remain on Betfair 1.28, after pound went higher.

Ching, ching !!!

Quality

We spend most of our lives, running the treadmill of life.

At times, it seems a long, uphill, unequal struggle .. and I have many sympathies for people who have an unfair start (by the sheer randomness, of being born in the wrong country).

This has started out quite miserable, which, wasnt my intention .. but maybe highlights, just how happy u should be, when you happen to come across sheeer quality, whether it be in the arts or anything.

World class, is just that .. World class, and I have often watched superstars in different fields, than I am used to, and admired their talents.

Chris Gayle, is a superstar of cricket - but got involved in a sexism row, when interviewed by a female reporter last yr. I heard a podcast recently, where he defended himself .. I thought correctly (I thought the whole issue was well over-blown - if that makes me sexist, I can live with that) .. and defended himself/his brand/image, which may have lost value, as a result.

I thought no more about it, but, last night at Taunton, he was due to play, but the game was rained out. Waiting for the game to be called off, I spoke to someone, who was one of 500 people who had attended a charity cricket game, held at the weekend, which Gayle attended.

Chris mingled with the crowd, and was genuinely approachable. He wasnt supposed to play, but, pads were found, and played the last 4 overs (Got 60 for fun), but the nice thing was, when someone caught one of his sixes in the crown, he got down on his knees, and did the "I am not worthy, rasing arms thingy" .. which was genuinely funny.

http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-06-13/chris-gayle-hits-half-century-for-charity/

The bowling was rank, but, it was probably supposed to be ..

Driving all over the country

In Poker, 'rounders', or professional poker players, consider the daily grind to be pretty tortuous, with late starts, sitting at the table, trying to beat the rake/boredom/mental issues, of making a living at the game.

I appreciate its not easy .. But, in the last few days, have probably logged 12-14 hrs each day, of driving/watching cricket, and it's tough.

With every day, stock markets become more efficient, and, it's probably also true of sports betting markets. 

So, u need a fresh brain, and, that's not always easy to achieve, if u have been stuck in traffic/had a delayed connection. The absolute worst, would be getting there, and seeing the game .. A one-way train .. Or worse, called off.

My lifetime worst for this .. Was an hr drive, from Malaysia to Singapore airport, a 4 hr flight to Hong Kong, a 1 hr commute to the race track .. To find, racing was at a different venue, 2 hrs away .. Which I couldn't get to.

Not a good day.

Startup

Ok, so, it's been a while.

There are many reasons why. Sure, I've been busy, but, also, a little disappointed, in lots of things, and writing about them, just makes me uncomfortable.

So, I waited for a happier subject.

I spend a lot of time, driving or commuting .. And aiding in this, huge amount of dead time, I listen to books, or podcasts.

Startup, is a podcast, I heard mentioned by a poker interviewee, and went to look.

It's simply stunning .. Entertaining, evocative, relevant.

Take a look .. You won't be sorry .. And the whole archive, from April 2014, is available.

Start with epsisode 1, I am on episode 8, and all are fantastic.

Eye in the sky

Can't believe how many people are dying .. 

Went to see Alan Rickmans' last movie, "Eye in the sky", and rate it a very strong 9/10. It has a very strong cast, with a few people's work, I really admire.

The technology of drones etc, is simply amazing. V sad to see Alan Rickmans dies of cancer .. What a bitch of a disease this is. I am a monthly contributor to societies, hoping to cure the disease, and would implore others, to likewise donate. 

It probably won't help oldies .. But, if u under 40, u might benefit.

//

Really enjoying Los Angeles, but, having 2 winning poker sessions, will help with mind-set. Going to watch the Dodgers baseball tonite ...

More batty prices.

So, am still here .. 

The poker is beatable, at least on the east coast, where there seem to be more tourists.

The west coast, is the big leagues, and they play a v nitty style, due to the high rake. This forces u to really be patient, and just play top 6% hands, hoping a unknown will sit down, and donate their money.

Sports gambling is really big, and dropped into Kentucky, for a look. It's a beautiful place.

Here are some interesting pics. The only loss of Man o War, well described. Man o War boulevard, which runs thru Lexington, gave me the chills.

The keeneland race meet in April, is 23 meetings, almost daily, and they get 25,000 in on most days, 55,000, at he weekend.

It's $3 to go in, and $3 for a race add, but that's the only value.

It's all tote betting, with a minimum 16% house rake. If a Punter wins more than $1199, they pay 30% government tax. Seems hard to beat to me .. Yet, they queue up, to give it away.

Lines are so big, they have drive-thrus, like McDonald's ... Seriously, WTF ??

Adjusting to Theme Park price tilt

So, am on the road in the US of A.

It's an expensive place, for mere mortals. Minimum wage in my county is $1 an hr, in Washington it's currently $10, probably going to $15 .. Now, things here are expensive .. Coffee at Starbucks is $4, which is 3 times the price, I would expect to pay .. Nightly rates at basic 3 star hotels, are $100+ ..

Anyway, was getting past all of it, when we hit the theme parks.

4 adults (anything over 11 is an adult), for 2 days at Universal .. $800. The on-site hotel .. $300 a night, plus $22 parking, per day, (don't even think about free breakfast).

U walk in .. Someone takes you pic .. $30. Bottle of water, $2, sometimes $3. 

Fast pass tickets, an extra $200 .. Lines for fast pass, still for some rides, 15 mins. Harry Potter world well done .. But they are taking the piss. $40 for a fucking wand !! It's a little bit of plastic for fucks sake !!

The guy outside gringots has the right idea ..He got the lot.

Cheltenham 2016

Spent the last 2 days at Cheltenham .. Day 1, as a guest of Betdaq .. who still deem my support of their exchange worthy of hospitality, unlike some other exchanges, who dont.

I havent been, as a punter, for many years, and, the place has been really improved. They have spent bundles, and, its now well laid out, and people can flow, fairly easily .. apart from the Guiness Alley, which was rammed.

Its by no means cheap .. £55 for the tattersalls enclosure, £85 for club. The 10's of touts outside, will sell u one for cheap .. I paid £40 for a tatts tkt on day 2 .. could probably have got it for less. Touts obviously make a great deal of money .. they probably paid £20 or even less for the tkt .. so, just by buying and selling a commodity, they get a wage.

On a racecourse, u see lots of people trying to earn. Either daily security people, who get minimum wage, daily cashiers etc/cleaners/waiters .. its a broad cross-section. Given that they are being paid, maybe £60 for the day, I do wonder why they just dont back the horses, that are 'price-pusshed' in the betting shops, and arb them.

Betfred has a number of outlets on-course, and each day, he let u have a free £10, per £100 invested. Sure, u need the exchange account to hedge, and the ready cash .. but, I saw many people, who had tkts of up to £800 .. in theory, u are only allowed £100 a time, but, there are 10 cashiers a shop, at least 3 shops, and its rammed with people.

The bookies on-course have paid a pretty penny for their rights to bet .. anywhere from .. maybe £5000, to £300,000 for the 50 yr licence .. so, with the expenses associated, they need to bet to a decent margin to recoup their investment. I have no problem with this. Advantage players, will bet by mobile .. at lowest margins .. -- on-course punters, largely are price indifferent .. hard to believe, but true .. and deserve to be shafted.

The cheltenham festival is over 4 days, and, its always in March, and always cold. This year was no different, thou, the rain kept away.

Traffic is manic, and the price of coffee/burgers, sheer robbery, but, the atmosphere, is tremendous, and u do get a chance to meet up, with colleagues etc.

I enjoyed the 2 days ..

Free Play scams

As an  'Advantage Player', you should be aware of 'the good stuff', that may occasionally pass u by.

Some of the stories are merely entertaining, others, a little more instructive.

There is a lesson here .. maybe multiple lessons.

Free Play .. is basically credits, which a casino will add to your players card, to entice u into the casino, and get u maybe hooked on slots ..

The amount they give u, is normally quite small .. but, even so, $50 free play, (played thru the machine, by even a basic payer .. should return $45).

At the casino, free play is normally added to your players card, at the customer relations help-desk.

Here are 2 stories :

At one desk .. a player was supposed to be given $100.00, but, was mistakenly given $10000. (oops).

He played off $1000 a day, getting cash-out tickets, which the ATM machines can pay .. they can pay up to $1000.

In all, he banked $9500.

The casino discovered .. and thought about suing for reimbursement. How would u bet ?

In a second case, the comps manager, conspired with a customer relations employee. They tracked which customers were due comps, and what days they normally played.

On days, they didnt come in .. they printed out a new loyalty card, added $500 or so to it, and got a 3rd conspirator, to play it thru the machines.

In all, they got away with $400,000 !!!! (nice one), before a jilted lover, ratted them out (Deeep sigh).

Downtime .. would be nice

I am trying to get into the habit of reserving Feb/March, as months where my general workload decreases, and, I allow myself some time to think about things.

To help this endeavour, I signed-up for a 4 day painting course (landscapes and shit), not, interior.

I haven't painted for a seriously long time .. and, the overall quality of my colleagues work, was in a different league to mine. Here is the result of 3 days work .. (I got bored, and decided to play golf, on Day 4).

To give some balance .. here is the top picture over 3 days .. painted by a 65 yr old granny .. and a picture from the teacher .. produced in 90 mins.

At times, it wasn't easy to concentrate.

There is a lot of bad news re greyhounds tracks closing .. it seems Wimbledon has weeks left, and Hall Green, potentially, a few months.

These closures, will leave big gaps, and its not hard to envision many more flapping (unlicensed) tracks, than the potentially .. 16 or so, regional stadia, in 5 yrs or so.

There are many to blame for this sad state of affairs .. but, a sad fact is, that new supporters are hard to recruit .. given, the margins a typical on-course bookie works to .. (as he cant take money/balance his book).

Its a vicious circle .. and I don't really see a way out.

The trouble is .. the same can largely be said of horse-racing .. thou, I would be happy, to see maybe 10 of the existing 59 tracks in the UK, close.

There is too much racing, and the product has been diluted // bookies have come to rely on other products. If racing regained some quality, it would give everyone a chance to regroup .. which, is maybe what the industry needs.

Juggling the Planets

Its been an odd period of time.

Over the last 2 weeks, I have never been so out of kilter, with the market. I dont understand. They are wrong, I am right .. but, no-one understands.

Really fucking weird .. maybe its me, but, my results say otherwise .. hey-ho.

This weekend is Superbowl 50, and listening to many of the NFL podcasts, there are some sports books with a menu of up to 400 prop bets.

The Westgate casino/Sportsbook, went up with 200 or so props, last Thursday. the line of 30 punters, were allowed 2 bets each, before, going to the back of the line .. (the odds for there picks, normally shortened).

Historically, props are great business for the books. The squares, take the over on everything .. wanting to see action, and the sharps take the under, laying the heavy juice, knowing they have the best of it.

In the last 49 superbowls, the game has not gone to overtime. This time, its priced at 1.08 or so. Not a great price .. maybe, but, for bridge-jumpers, good enough.

I miss the US at superbowl time .. even thou, watching in Vegas, would be madness.

Carolina Panthers are 5.5 points fav, and about 1.47, on the moneyline. They were 40/1 at the start of the season .. some people have some nice ante-post wagers. I am with them, but, not at fancy prices.

Ram-Slam - Match Fixing - Mega Deep SIgh

I watched a lot of last yrs Ram-slam .. and thou a few games had many twists and turns, I never really thought it was 'dodgy' - rather thinking, the players were of such poor quality (overall), that, sport evolved naturally.

Its disturbing, to see this article :

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jan/19/thami-tsolekile-south-africa-cricket-match-fixing-ram-slam

The amounts involved are 'trivial' - but, maybe this isnt the full story - I hope its not true.

It must be a major blow to Cricket South Africa - doubly so, that the accused, are from the minority groups, they are trying to promote.

On a different tack, but also a bit sad to see :

Aaron Pangiso, alledgedly, barred from a flight, for being intoxocated :

http://www.sport24.co.za/Cricket/Proteas/drunk-protea-wreaks-havoc-on-flight-20160118?isapp=true

The tennis racket

Its not a sport I enjoy/watch/or bet on, but, am aware, its a massive market for betting, and, is thus a target for match-fixers.

As a rule, the authorities do less than fuck-all, save for a little cosmetic justice.

This expose, shows just how lax, the Tennis authorities are :

http://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/the-tennis-racket#.wjP8wxAJd

Betfair pre-off Volume

On the Bet Angel forum .. which is excellent, there is a thread about how Betfair volume on the exchange, has decreased significantly :

Since 2012 pre off turnover has fallen from £19.5bn to £16.9bn

Comparisons on individual sports, top ten sports by turnover (pre off) : -

Horse Racing -4% - £10.31bn vs. £9.88bn 
Soccer -27% - £5.73bn vs. £4.16bn 
Tennis -31% - £1.36bn vs. £0.94bn 
Greyhound Racing -10% - £0.72bn vs. £0.65bn 
Cricket +57% - £0.37bn vs. £0.58bn 
Basketball -48% - £0.22bn vs. £0.11bn 
American Football -2% - £0.1bn vs. £0.09bn 
Golf -14% - £0.09bn vs. £0.08bn 
Australian Rules -39% - £0.07bn vs. £0.04bn

Its interesting. that cricket is the only sport, to have increased, and increased significantly - thou, the actual volume number, is quite low, in relation to other sports.

I have no idea why the Betfair share price nudges £40 .. to me, its a fucking mystery.

Maybe, becos in-play volumes have risen, at least, for some sports.

Soccer -13% - £13.73bn vs. £11.98bn 
Tennis -7% - £9.94bn vs. £9.24bn 
Cricket 73% - £5.17bn vs. £8.95bn 
Horse Racing -5% - £2.63bn vs. £2.49bn 
Basketball -16% - £0.7bn vs. £0.59bn 
Golf -1% - £0.25bn vs. £0.25bn 
Darts -11% - £0.17bn vs. £0.15bn 
Snooker -25% - £0.17bn vs. £0.13bn 
American Football -8% - £0.15bn vs. £0.14bn

Truth is like poetry

Saw the movie, 'The Big Short' last night, based on the book by Michael Lewis.

The book is better, as is the general rule, but, it passed some time, and its a solid 8/10.

There was an amusing quote during the movie :

Truth is like Poetry :

Most people fucking hate poetry.

I feel my twitter feed and this blog, is pretty much like that.

S.Africa cricket team, is well fucked. If u cant see it, and u are a trader, u need new glasses.

3rd Test - S.Africa v England - Wanderers

England lead the 4 match series, 1-0, after the // trying to think of the right word // , for a Test, which saw Ben Stokes score a double hundred, in super quick time, and Amla / Bavuma also creating headlines.

Lost in the plot, were a Test debut for Morris, which saw him both, at the best of times/worst of times.

Anyway ..

Onto one of my favourite Test grounds .. The Wanderers .. not least, cos its v possible to get later afternoon Thunderstorms there :

Current weather forecast :

Current betting :

SA 2.88 .. Steyn out .. been as low as 2..4

Eng 3.3

Draw 2.96


I have a big position, for one of the teams, and against Draw.

Remember being at the fixture, 6 yrs ago .. (how time flies), and Morkel/Steyn had Eng in all sorts of bother, and S.Africa won by a distance. That was 2010 ..

Nov 1999, Donald/Pollock had England 4-2 .. and Eng 122 All-out. S.Africa won by a distance.

Jan 2005, Eng .. a game I remember v well, Eng scored 411 1st dig, and S.Africa got 417. After Eng scored another 332 before declaring .. people thght it would be a draw, but Hoggard got some key wkts late, in the gloom, and Eng got up to win.



Wanderers is a result wkt .. Draw backers, need a lot of wet stuff.


///

Result .. Game over in 3 days ..

All 3 options, traded sub 2.3 ..

Another one left without me ...

I missed my flight .. Which isn't a new thing, but, it's only Jan 6, and the year is young.

Last year, I missed 21 flights .. Including one which I had somehow double-booked myself on .. Not my finest hour.

I say 21, it might easily have been 41, I sorta stop counting, like a gambler stops acknowledging losing poker sessions, preferring to let them slide.

I can't deny, this is a major leak ..

As this is confession time, I also missed about 30 pre-booked, non-changeable trains, which, oddly, I find more irritating than the planes .. 

I paid 3 accident excesses, on hired cars, and had to rip-up about £100, to a car owner, who I had backed into, and wanted to go to the police .. (The Ckt game started in 45 mins, and that wasn't going to happen)... (The scratch was minuscule .. I got severely fucked-over)

My new house build, over-ran by about 12 mths, and £50k .. If I am lucky, I also stop counting on this one - it got too depressing.

There is a pattern here .. 

Having said all the above, last yr was fantastic .. Not least, cos I shot regular sub 90's ... Nothing else really matters.

This yr, I will try miss only 10 planes, 10 trains, flatten 1 excess.

If I make only 1 out of 3, and shoot a 85 or better somewhere, I will be estatic.

S.African cricket and other stuff

As I write this, Day 2 of the Cape Town test has ended, and SA are looking to save the game, chasing the 629/6, Eng set-up in quick fashion.

Since the last test, I have learnt a fair bit, about the quota/target system, S.Africa use, and its interesting.

S.Africa itself, is in transition .. 20 odd years, since the ANC came to power. There are still some 5m white people here, but, there are at least 25-30m+ other races, and .. logically, its these people who will be sitting in the stands, in 10 yrs time.

Thus, S.African sports need to find 'Non-white, role models', who will both help sport to flourish, and encourage a new breed of spectator, to the stadia.

I can now understand, why, selectors have their hands tied by government, and its just tough tacky, that there will be some hard times, before the new super-stars are found.

As for the Test itself : The knock by Ben Stokes, was as good a knock I have seen, since KP rescued, England at Headingley. He deserves to be on the winning side. 

I think at 2.5, England are worth a bet.

// Good news, Bad news .. England started days play at about 2.4, having been down to 2.3. They finished on 11 .. so, basically, a bust.