So, we got the money, in round 1.
Pakistan deserved to win, but, if Stokes/Anderson come back, I think Eng are v decent favs, and would have to lay the 4.0 Pak.
Weather seems unsettled .. might get some disruptions .. one to watch.
4 days out :
Eng 2.02
Pak 4.1
Draw 3.85
(I am on the draw .. for now)
///
Eve of test .. weather picture got better, and am looking at a red book .. wont be the first time, I have gone into a test like that, and wont be the last .. will handle it.
Money for Eng ..
Eng 1.88
Pak 3.85
Draw 4.7
My net position s effectively laying Pak at 5.0, draw no bet .. not great, but, not the worst.
Will update the blog when I feel like it .. no one ever gives me a dime, so, its just for my own amusement anyway.
///
End Day 1 :
Eng used a v good toss, pretty well, and for me, Pak already all but, cant win.
Eng 1.43
Pak 18
Draw 4.0
Weather forecast for Sunday decidely iffy .. a little surprised draw is not trading a little shorter, especially given how pitch has played. U can def argue, Anderson/Broad will be good enuf, and thats a decent argument - but, have the draw, well on-side.
Current Book :
Eng +7 units
Pak -12 units
Draw +24 units
I traded the day well .. someone kept offering 5.0+ Draw .. thats the sort of offer, I find hard to resist.
COP Day 3 .. Eng 490 ahead, batting again (which social media went crazy about .. which is the sort of thing it does).
Eng 1.1 chances, which is probably generous. I think Cook declares with maybe 50 more .. and they win pretty easy .. weather doesnt seem so bad.
I have flat/losing book .. but, I can live with it. (Going for Pak to trade sub 50, and against draw).
Showing posts with label Test. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Test. Show all posts
Monday, 18 July 2016
Saturday, 16 July 2016
1st Test - England v Pakistan - Lords
Pre-game lays of England, looked at times, +Ev, and -Ev, and at times, it was the sort of 1st 2 days, where u could just leave up reverse trades, and leave them.
Anyway, after 2 days, of mkt love for England, the mkt may have to rethink.
Eng currently 86 behind in 1st dig .. 3 wkts left.
Eng 1.96
Pak 2.68
Draw 8.2
Eng against spin, seem unsure (lets put it kindly), but, Pak will always battle to score runs, given their long tail .. so, the test seems well poised.
Interesting 1st session, Day 3 .. if Eng get skittled quick .. Pak will be favs ??
Not sure how the mkt will stomach this .. and, with current prices, slightly prefer being with England - thou, no doubt, the mkt will jump on the England tail wkts.
/////
End day 3 --- Pak 281-8 net .. and mkt has both sides 2.02, give or take. (( Both sides have been favs, multiple times))
Mk love back for England, and could easily see new ball/early wkts/20-0 England, touch 1.6x .. but, given spin/wearing pitch, feel its the sort of lay, u should leave, and take the dog for a walk .. it will be too painful to watch.
I am surprised Pak are not decent favs, and have a position with them .. which, I expect to increase, as the bat-shit crazy prices evolve.
Lets hope ..
Anyway, after 2 days, of mkt love for England, the mkt may have to rethink.
Eng currently 86 behind in 1st dig .. 3 wkts left.
Eng 1.96
Pak 2.68
Draw 8.2
Eng against spin, seem unsure (lets put it kindly), but, Pak will always battle to score runs, given their long tail .. so, the test seems well poised.
Interesting 1st session, Day 3 .. if Eng get skittled quick .. Pak will be favs ??
Not sure how the mkt will stomach this .. and, with current prices, slightly prefer being with England - thou, no doubt, the mkt will jump on the England tail wkts.
/////
End day 3 --- Pak 281-8 net .. and mkt has both sides 2.02, give or take. (( Both sides have been favs, multiple times))
Mk love back for England, and could easily see new ball/early wkts/20-0 England, touch 1.6x .. but, given spin/wearing pitch, feel its the sort of lay, u should leave, and take the dog for a walk .. it will be too painful to watch.
I am surprised Pak are not decent favs, and have a position with them .. which, I expect to increase, as the bat-shit crazy prices evolve.
Lets hope ..
Tuesday, 12 January 2016
3rd Test - S.Africa v England - Wanderers
England lead the 4 match series, 1-0, after the // trying to think of the right word // , for a Test, which saw Ben Stokes score a double hundred, in super quick time, and Amla / Bavuma also creating headlines.
Lost in the plot, were a Test debut for Morris, which saw him both, at the best of times/worst of times.
Anyway ..
Onto one of my favourite Test grounds .. The Wanderers .. not least, cos its v possible to get later afternoon Thunderstorms there :
Current weather forecast :
Current betting :
SA 2.88 .. Steyn out .. been as low as 2..4
Eng 3.3
Draw 2.96
I have a big position, for one of the teams, and against Draw.
Remember being at the fixture, 6 yrs ago .. (how time flies), and Morkel/Steyn had Eng in all sorts of bother, and S.Africa won by a distance. That was 2010 ..
Nov 1999, Donald/Pollock had England 4-2 .. and Eng 122 All-out. S.Africa won by a distance.
Jan 2005, Eng .. a game I remember v well, Eng scored 411 1st dig, and S.Africa got 417. After Eng scored another 332 before declaring .. people thght it would be a draw, but Hoggard got some key wkts late, in the gloom, and Eng got up to win.
Wanderers is a result wkt .. Draw backers, need a lot of wet stuff.
///
Result .. Game over in 3 days ..
All 3 options, traded sub 2.3 ..
Lost in the plot, were a Test debut for Morris, which saw him both, at the best of times/worst of times.
Anyway ..
Onto one of my favourite Test grounds .. The Wanderers .. not least, cos its v possible to get later afternoon Thunderstorms there :
Current weather forecast :
SA 2.88 .. Steyn out .. been as low as 2..4
Eng 3.3
Draw 2.96
I have a big position, for one of the teams, and against Draw.
Remember being at the fixture, 6 yrs ago .. (how time flies), and Morkel/Steyn had Eng in all sorts of bother, and S.Africa won by a distance. That was 2010 ..
Nov 1999, Donald/Pollock had England 4-2 .. and Eng 122 All-out. S.Africa won by a distance.
Jan 2005, Eng .. a game I remember v well, Eng scored 411 1st dig, and S.Africa got 417. After Eng scored another 332 before declaring .. people thght it would be a draw, but Hoggard got some key wkts late, in the gloom, and Eng got up to win.
Wanderers is a result wkt .. Draw backers, need a lot of wet stuff.
///
Result .. Game over in 3 days ..
All 3 options, traded sub 2.3 ..
Sunday, 3 January 2016
S.African cricket and other stuff
As I write this, Day 2 of the Cape Town test has ended, and SA are looking to save the game, chasing the 629/6, Eng set-up in quick fashion.
Since the last test, I have learnt a fair bit, about the quota/target system, S.Africa use, and its interesting.
S.Africa itself, is in transition .. 20 odd years, since the ANC came to power. There are still some 5m white people here, but, there are at least 25-30m+ other races, and .. logically, its these people who will be sitting in the stands, in 10 yrs time.
Thus, S.African sports need to find 'Non-white, role models', who will both help sport to flourish, and encourage a new breed of spectator, to the stadia.
I can now understand, why, selectors have their hands tied by government, and its just tough tacky, that there will be some hard times, before the new super-stars are found.
Since the last test, I have learnt a fair bit, about the quota/target system, S.Africa use, and its interesting.
S.Africa itself, is in transition .. 20 odd years, since the ANC came to power. There are still some 5m white people here, but, there are at least 25-30m+ other races, and .. logically, its these people who will be sitting in the stands, in 10 yrs time.
Thus, S.African sports need to find 'Non-white, role models', who will both help sport to flourish, and encourage a new breed of spectator, to the stadia.
I can now understand, why, selectors have their hands tied by government, and its just tough tacky, that there will be some hard times, before the new super-stars are found.
As for the Test itself : The knock by Ben Stokes, was as good a knock I have seen, since KP rescued, England at Headingley. He deserves to be on the winning side.
I think at 2.5, England are worth a bet.
// Good news, Bad news .. England started days play at about 2.4, having been down to 2.3. They finished on 11 .. so, basically, a bust.
Tuesday, 29 December 2015
!st Test - General thoughts
Here are some overall thoughts, which, may or may not, be relevent.
The S.African team 'color' quota, gives the selectors many headaches. I wouldnt play, Duminy or Bavuma. Van Zyl is being played in the wrong spot, because, of selection issues.
Many S.African players, have mental scaring, from India. Elgar, looked much better. Du Plessis, gets one last chance, or is dropped for Van Zyl.
ABd is pure class. Steyn got the key wkts on Day 1, and Eng would have scored 50-100 more, if he hadnt played. Morkel bowled v good, Piedt got a 5 for, and seems better than Tahir.
The pitch was 6-8 mph slower than usual. Which didnt help SA bowlers .. but, also didnt really help Eng.
S.Africa fielded poorly, Amla is not a captain .. he is anonymous on the field, and has poor form to contend with, let alone all the media, that he is not a natural for.
Eng played v well, and look on the up. With Anderson back, probably for Woakes, I would be happy to back them.
My S.African team for CT would be :
Elgar
Cook
Amla
Abd
De Cock
Du Plessis
Rouseau
Abbott
Piedt
Rabada
Morkel
But, that doesnt fit the quota .. so, wont happen.
Betting markets loved S.Africa, for most of Days 1 -3, then, sorta woke up.
I hope they love them again in CT .. for me, they are a maximum punish (at wrong odds).
Thx for all the postive feedback on twitter and her. Its nice, but, as a v wise old bookie once
told me, 'There no praise like that u can put in your back pocket'.
Its true .. manage your own positions, and pay your own bills. Nothing else matters.
The S.African team 'color' quota, gives the selectors many headaches. I wouldnt play, Duminy or Bavuma. Van Zyl is being played in the wrong spot, because, of selection issues.
Many S.African players, have mental scaring, from India. Elgar, looked much better. Du Plessis, gets one last chance, or is dropped for Van Zyl.
ABd is pure class. Steyn got the key wkts on Day 1, and Eng would have scored 50-100 more, if he hadnt played. Morkel bowled v good, Piedt got a 5 for, and seems better than Tahir.
The pitch was 6-8 mph slower than usual. Which didnt help SA bowlers .. but, also didnt really help Eng.
S.Africa fielded poorly, Amla is not a captain .. he is anonymous on the field, and has poor form to contend with, let alone all the media, that he is not a natural for.
Eng played v well, and look on the up. With Anderson back, probably for Woakes, I would be happy to back them.
My S.African team for CT would be :
Elgar
Cook
Amla
Abd
De Cock
Du Plessis
Rouseau
Abbott
Piedt
Rabada
Morkel
But, that doesnt fit the quota .. so, wont happen.
Betting markets loved S.Africa, for most of Days 1 -3, then, sorta woke up.
I hope they love them again in CT .. for me, they are a maximum punish (at wrong odds).
Thx for all the postive feedback on twitter and her. Its nice, but, as a v wise old bookie once
told me, 'There no praise like that u can put in your back pocket'.
Its true .. manage your own positions, and pay your own bills. Nothing else matters.
Monday, 28 December 2015
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 4 Trading
Book brought forward :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Ok, what have we seen so far ?
IMHO, a very well disciplined England team, who batted ok, and bowled with great lines/fielded well, and generally, played pretty good.
A ragged S.African team, who, clearly rely too much, on 2-4 individuals, who fielded poorly, and may be on a downward curve.
England lead by 261, with 7 wkts left. I am sure Cook will be cautious, but expect a declaration, maybe 40 mins before Tea .. setting S.africa 400+.
Trading wise, the first 3 hrs will probably be pretty dull - unless England really bat quick, or S.Africa get a heap of wkts.
Current Prices
S.Africa 15
England 1.47
Draw 3.9
I have no wish to get involved, but, would back the Draw at bigger.
Oh, and BTW, think the Barmy Army are well below par .. v few songs .. they need to up their game a bit.
In the 4 hrs before the game, the Eng price has gone from 1.47, to 1.42 and back to 1.49.
Someone, taking it for a walk ...
Eng lose 2 wkts .. 197-5, lead by 286.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.47
Draw 4.8
New ball due in 2 overs .. if they take it , as this one is reversing. England looking to get on with it.
Some of these comments never showed 'live' .. dunno why.
Trade - lay 3000/750 draw
Wkt - Taylor - Eng 224-6
SA 5.5
Eng 1.47
Draw 7.4
Trade - back draw 3000/460
Eng 242-6 .. lead by 330
Eng crash to 1.37 ?
Trade - lay Eng 1750/5000
Someone got the muchies fir Eng 1.33 ?? .. shuda laid this price.
lead 350-6
15 mins to lunch
SA 12
Eng 1.37
Draw 5.1
Wkt - on review - Ali - Eng 361-7 ..net.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.37
Draw 6
Radio _2000 commemtator says dec imminent .. expletives required .. pick your own.
Lunch
book
SA +£2390
Eng +£5740
Draw +£10900
Equity +£6400
Will look to get back on Eng, but think price wrong.
Eng lead 404-8
SA 16
Eng 1.36
Draw 4.8
Wkt - Broad 404-9
SA 12
Eng 1.35
Draw 5.3
Eng 416 all out ..net.
SA 9.4
Eng 1.35
Draw 6.6
370 in a losing cause been scored here before, batting last.
SA need a good start etc .. not totally happy with my book, but, cant do much, st these prices.
SA 2-0
Saa 6.4
Eng 1.5!!
Draw 5.7
Trade back Eng 2000-4000
Solid start - SA 26-0 .. which is promising for them going forward, as Van Zyl could easily have been a basket case.
SA 5
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.6
Mkt going into meltdown
SA 49-0
SA 3.55
Eng 1.66
Draw 7
hmm ... The rapid start, with all the time available, has some traders v worried.
Wkt - Van zyl bowled for 33 - SA 53-1
SA 5.3
Eng 1.42
Draw 8.4
Tea - SA 65-1 .. need 351 more, in 4 sessions .. 120 overs or so.
SA 5
Eng 1.45
Draw 8.8
Interesting game .. and fair play to Van Zyl , who played v positively.
Book.
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
Sa 82-1 .. mkt will get v twitchy, if Amla gets to 30 odd not out .. presently on 12
SA 3.4 .. they couldmeasily be odds on tomite ..
Eng 1.66
Draw 12 friendless .. rightly
Its 3.20 local .. play till 5.00 .. 30 more overs apprix .. they could be 200-? at close ..
Fllodlights coming on .. but not dark ..
Wicket - Amla chases one .. poor shot .. 85-2
SA 5.6
Eng 1.4
Draw 7.8
Wkt -Elgar goes, then a brief shower .. all hell let loose
cant keep up, 93-3
SA 12
Eng 1.28
Draw 7
Getting dark, but brighter in distance .. take your pick.
Drinks .. 19 overs left in day, but, not likely to see them all.
SA 113-3 .. need 290 more ..
all,about ABd and Du plessis ..
SA 7.6
Eng 1.31
Draw 9.2
looks right ..
SA 120-3 .. v little intent from SA .. blockathon.
batters look solid .. draw at 6.0 has some appeal.
Wicket - du plessis with 3 overs to close - SA 136/4
Massive Wkt, with, as it turns out, just 3 balls or so, left in the day.
SA 16
Eng 1.21
Draw 8
Abd is absolute class, but cant fo it by himself.
Steyn comes in as night watchman
Final Book :
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
I will leave it like this. I dont feel I traded optimally today, there were some clear opportunities I didnt take .. and u could argue, I should have just left my position, as it was, on Day 1.
Still ..
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Ok, what have we seen so far ?
IMHO, a very well disciplined England team, who batted ok, and bowled with great lines/fielded well, and generally, played pretty good.
A ragged S.African team, who, clearly rely too much, on 2-4 individuals, who fielded poorly, and may be on a downward curve.
England lead by 261, with 7 wkts left. I am sure Cook will be cautious, but expect a declaration, maybe 40 mins before Tea .. setting S.africa 400+.
Trading wise, the first 3 hrs will probably be pretty dull - unless England really bat quick, or S.Africa get a heap of wkts.
Current Prices
S.Africa 15
England 1.47
Draw 3.9
I have no wish to get involved, but, would back the Draw at bigger.
Oh, and BTW, think the Barmy Army are well below par .. v few songs .. they need to up their game a bit.
Someone, taking it for a walk ...
Eng lose 2 wkts .. 197-5, lead by 286.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.47
Draw 4.8
New ball due in 2 overs .. if they take it , as this one is reversing. England looking to get on with it.
Some of these comments never showed 'live' .. dunno why.
Trade - lay 3000/750 draw
Wkt - Taylor - Eng 224-6
SA 5.5
Eng 1.47
Draw 7.4
Trade - back draw 3000/460
Eng 242-6 .. lead by 330
Eng crash to 1.37 ?
Trade - lay Eng 1750/5000
Someone got the muchies fir Eng 1.33 ?? .. shuda laid this price.
lead 350-6
15 mins to lunch
SA 12
Eng 1.37
Draw 5.1
Wkt - on review - Ali - Eng 361-7 ..net.
SA 8.6
Eng 1.37
Draw 6
Radio _2000 commemtator says dec imminent .. expletives required .. pick your own.
Lunch
book
SA +£2390
Eng +£5740
Draw +£10900
Equity +£6400
Will look to get back on Eng, but think price wrong.
Eng lead 404-8
SA 16
Eng 1.36
Draw 4.8
Wkt - Broad 404-9
SA 12
Eng 1.35
Draw 5.3
Eng 416 all out ..net.
SA 9.4
Eng 1.35
Draw 6.6
370 in a losing cause been scored here before, batting last.
SA need a good start etc .. not totally happy with my book, but, cant do much, st these prices.
SA 2-0
Saa 6.4
Eng 1.5!!
Draw 5.7
Trade back Eng 2000-4000
Solid start - SA 26-0 .. which is promising for them going forward, as Van Zyl could easily have been a basket case.
SA 5
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.6
Mkt going into meltdown
SA 49-0
SA 3.55
Eng 1.66
Draw 7
hmm ... The rapid start, with all the time available, has some traders v worried.
Wkt - Van zyl bowled for 33 - SA 53-1
SA 5.3
Eng 1.42
Draw 8.4
Tea - SA 65-1 .. need 351 more, in 4 sessions .. 120 overs or so.
SA 5
Eng 1.45
Draw 8.8
Interesting game .. and fair play to Van Zyl , who played v positively.
Book.
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
Sa 82-1 .. mkt will get v twitchy, if Amla gets to 30 odd not out .. presently on 12
SA 3.4 .. they couldmeasily be odds on tomite ..
Eng 1.66
Draw 12 friendless .. rightly
Its 3.20 local .. play till 5.00 .. 30 more overs apprix .. they could be 200-? at close ..
Fllodlights coming on .. but not dark ..
Wicket - Amla chases one .. poor shot .. 85-2
SA 5.6
Eng 1.4
Draw 7.8
Wkt -Elgar goes, then a brief shower .. all hell let loose
cant keep up, 93-3
SA 12
Eng 1.28
Draw 7
Getting dark, but brighter in distance .. take your pick.
Drinks .. 19 overs left in day, but, not likely to see them all.
SA 113-3 .. need 290 more ..
all,about ABd and Du plessis ..
SA 7.6
Eng 1.31
Draw 9.2
looks right ..
SA 120-3 .. v little intent from SA .. blockathon.
batters look solid .. draw at 6.0 has some appeal.
Wicket - du plessis with 3 overs to close - SA 136/4
Massive Wkt, with, as it turns out, just 3 balls or so, left in the day.
SA 16
Eng 1.21
Draw 8
Abd is absolute class, but cant fo it by himself.
Steyn comes in as night watchman
Final Book :
SA + £3350
Eng +£6700
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6000
I will leave it like this. I dont feel I traded optimally today, there were some clear opportunities I didnt take .. and u could argue, I should have just left my position, as it was, on Day 1.
Still ..
Sunday, 27 December 2015
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 3 Trading
Prices at COP (Close of Play)
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
6am Local .. Day 3
I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.
Mkt now :
S.Africa 2.36
England 2.50
Draw 5.7
At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200
Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :
Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500
Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day
SA 2.56
Eng 2.00
Draw 8
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Wkt - Duminy 152-6
Sa 3.1
Eng 1.8
Draw 8
Wkt - Abbot 156-7
SA 3
Eng 1.72
Draw 9.4
All good -- at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.
Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.
SA 3.45
Eng1.69
Draw 8.2
Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up
current book
SA win +£3100
Eng win +£7200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £3700
Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.
SA 200-7
SA 2.58
Eng 2.1
Draw 7.2
SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.
Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8
SA 2.84
Eng 1.81
Draw 9
SA 214 all out
Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.
Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.
SA 3.3
Eng 1.64
Draw 11 ????? ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.
Equity in book, £5200
England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.
Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.
SA .6
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.1
Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102
SA 3.4
Eng 1.75
Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.
Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.
Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.
(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)
Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.
SA 3.55
Eng 1.7
Draw 7.2
Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.
Book now :
SA win +£2100
Eng win +£6200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £4900
SA 3.7
Eng 1.68
Draw 7
Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.
Drinks final session
Eng 111-2 lead by 200
SA 10
Eng 1.5
Draw 4.1
10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3
Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..
The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :
Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???
Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???
Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.
COP
Eng lead by 261-3.
Steyn injured.
2 days left ..
SA 13.5
Eng 1.49
Draw 3.85
A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.
Book :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.
///
play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.
wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
Lets think about this : S.Africa are 166 behind, with 6 wkts left. Run lines make them likely to get 310.
There are 298 overs left in game, time allowing. Weather seems ok.
If Eng go back in to bat, say, an hr after lunch, their run line will prob be about 275 (maybe less).
Its clear, Draw at 5.0 is barking, but so, is SA at 2.2.
If I wasn't constraining my exposure to £20k, I would lay another chunk of the draw.
I make the betting, something like :
S.Africa 2.5
England 2.4
Draw 8,0
So, have not changed the basic flavour of my book, if anything, added to Eng.
Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.
Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve, and an auto lay, going forward.
Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.
Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve, and an auto lay, going forward.
6am Local .. Day 3
I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.
Mkt now :
S.Africa 2.36
England 2.50
Draw 5.7
At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200
Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :
Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500
Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day
SA 2.56
Eng 2.00
Draw 8
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Wkt - Duminy 152-6
Sa 3.1
Eng 1.8
Draw 8
Wkt - Abbot 156-7
SA 3
Eng 1.72
Draw 9.4
All good -- at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.
Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.
SA 3.45
Eng1.69
Draw 8.2
Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up
current book
SA win +£3100
Eng win +£7200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £3700
Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.
SA 200-7
SA 2.58
Eng 2.1
Draw 7.2
SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.
Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8
SA 2.84
Eng 1.81
Draw 9
SA 214 all out
Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.
Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.
SA 3.3
Eng 1.64
Draw 11 ????? ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.
Equity in book, £5200
England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.
Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.
SA .6
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.1
Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102
SA 3.4
Eng 1.75
Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.
Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.
Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.
(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)
Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.
SA 3.55
Eng 1.7
Draw 7.2
Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.
Book now :
SA win +£2100
Eng win +£6200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £4900
SA 3.7
Eng 1.68
Draw 7
Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.
Drinks final session
Eng 111-2 lead by 200
SA 10
Eng 1.5
Draw 4.1
10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3
Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..
The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :
Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???
Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???
Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.
COP
Eng lead by 261-3.
Steyn injured.
2 days left ..
SA 13.5
Eng 1.49
Draw 3.85
A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.
Book :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.
///
play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.
wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.
Saturday, 26 December 2015
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 2 Trading
Its not much fun, when u compose posts, and the app u are using finds a way to either lose them or garble them so badly, they are unreadable.
That happened too many times yesterday, and ... alrhou I badly needed sleep last night, spent a few hrs, looking for an alternative solution. I sorta found one, but, it is limited .. in that I cant post pictures .. thou, I can obviously add them after play, at a laptop. (May have found a way to post some pics .. amazing what u learn, when in need)
So, this is an interim solution. Sorry if it looks bad.
Play starts early today, trying to make up, the 25 overs lost from Day 1.
The weather forecast for the rest of the test is good, and thou it does get gloomy after Tea, am hopeful the overs can be made up.
Eng finished on 179-4, after being inserted on a tricky pitch. The run lines have England making about 340 .. which suggests there will be regular wkts.
Overnight, the prices haven't moved too much :
S.Africa 2.6
England 4.1
Draw 2.7
My current book .
S.Africa -£3400
England +£24000
Draw -£12000
Equity +£100
This is a super volatile position, but, apart from wanting to lay more draw, am happy with it.
I should be able to update the blog during breaks.
//
Sun burning off all the cloud - shud be a batting day. May try and lay S.Africa early, after maybe 5 overs, if no wkt.
Will be interesting to see how the mkt views a decent start by Eng .. the draw may shorten.
Stokes plays an aggressive shot, and puts one in the air. You can argue its a poor shot, but, its the way he gets on with it.
Eng 196-5
S.Africa 2.14
England 4.5
Draw 3.1
Mkt loves S.Afr
Trade --.. laid 3100/3000 .. new ball due in 8 overs, but, think price wrong.
Drinks Eng 232-5
S.Africa 2.56
England 3.75
Draw 2.82
Trade -- Lay 5500/2000 Eng to take some profit/reduce book exposure
//
Wkt --Compton goes - Eng 247-6
SA 2.32
Eng 4.1
Draw 3
will updates positions at lunch
253-7
SA 1.87
Eng 4.6
Draw 3.7
253-8
SA 1.66
Eng 5.5
Draw 4.4
Good last stand by Broad and Finn .. Eng finish just over 300, slightly higher than avg 1st inngs score.
At the inngs change,
S.Africa 1.73
England 4.6
Draw 4.7
S.Africa -£4700
England £21600
Draw -£12000
Equity -£250
At one stage, equity was positive, for over a grand .. so, maybe shuda cuda.
England blow during change to 5.7, S.africa, which the mkt has just lived all game, in to 1.61. This was just crazy .. in hindsight, these were just mistakes, and should have been punished.
Run line for s.africa about 380.
This is not a typical test for durban, and am a bit confused. cant bail on eng at this price, would rather back it.
Will sit tight, and cross fingers/ do my money.
Lunch still going on, and prices bouning from a low on SA of 1.6 to 1.75 now.
Eng now 4.3 .. fuck all has happened.
SA 1.77
Eng 4.3
Draw 4.8
Wkt -- Van Zyl leaves one, and SA 0-1
SA 1.98
Eng 3.2
Draw 5
Trade - Lay 4400/2000 Eng
Wkt -- Amla goes, SA 14-2
Commentators say SA in all sorts of trouble, but, mkt still sees them as favs.
SA 2.2
Eng 2.78
Draw 5.4
Trade - Back SA 2400/2000
SA 22-2
Trade - lay Eng 4300/2000
Drinks - equity in book over 2k, but not cashing in
Devilliers given not out, by 3rd umpire .. big swing in equity for book, but, v hard for 3rd upire to give.
Tea S.Africa 55-2
S.Africa 1.82
England 4.2
Draw 4:5
book
S.Africa -£300
England +£15200
draw -£12000
Equity £550
Wkt -- Broad finally gets ABd .. now 8 from 11, times he has taken his wkt.
SA 103-3
SA 1.94
Eng 3.45
Draw 5
Drinks .. equity back to 1700 .. think Eng big price, and u have to lay S.Africa
Trade - Lay 4000/4000 SA
Wkt -- Du Plessis - 113-4
SA 2.26
Eng 2.4
Draw 6.6
Trade -- Lay 5000/3500 Eng .. just to lock in profit ...
COP
SA 137-4 .. 166 behind .. in 152 overs, which I dont really understand .. should be 180 overs in 2 days, so, we are still down 28 overs .. Early start tomorrow, but still .. why not play on tonite ?
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
So, can book decent profits, but, not sure I want to ... will think about it.
That happened too many times yesterday, and ... alrhou I badly needed sleep last night, spent a few hrs, looking for an alternative solution. I sorta found one, but, it is limited .. in that I cant post pictures .. thou, I can obviously add them after play, at a laptop. (May have found a way to post some pics .. amazing what u learn, when in need)
So, this is an interim solution. Sorry if it looks bad.
Play starts early today, trying to make up, the 25 overs lost from Day 1.
The weather forecast for the rest of the test is good, and thou it does get gloomy after Tea, am hopeful the overs can be made up.
Eng finished on 179-4, after being inserted on a tricky pitch. The run lines have England making about 340 .. which suggests there will be regular wkts.
Overnight, the prices haven't moved too much :
S.Africa 2.6
England 4.1
Draw 2.7
My current book .
S.Africa -£3400
England +£24000
Draw -£12000
Equity +£100
This is a super volatile position, but, apart from wanting to lay more draw, am happy with it.
I should be able to update the blog during breaks.
//
Sun burning off all the cloud - shud be a batting day. May try and lay S.Africa early, after maybe 5 overs, if no wkt.
Will be interesting to see how the mkt views a decent start by Eng .. the draw may shorten.
Stokes plays an aggressive shot, and puts one in the air. You can argue its a poor shot, but, its the way he gets on with it.
Eng 196-5
S.Africa 2.14
England 4.5
Draw 3.1
Mkt loves S.Afr
Trade --.. laid 3100/3000 .. new ball due in 8 overs, but, think price wrong.
Drinks Eng 232-5
S.Africa 2.56
England 3.75
Draw 2.82
Trade -- Lay 5500/2000 Eng to take some profit/reduce book exposure
//
Wkt --Compton goes - Eng 247-6
SA 2.32
Eng 4.1
Draw 3
will updates positions at lunch
253-7
SA 1.87
Eng 4.6
Draw 3.7
253-8
SA 1.66
Eng 5.5
Draw 4.4
Good last stand by Broad and Finn .. Eng finish just over 300, slightly higher than avg 1st inngs score.
At the inngs change,
S.Africa 1.73
England 4.6
Draw 4.7
S.Africa -£4700
England £21600
Draw -£12000
Equity -£250
At one stage, equity was positive, for over a grand .. so, maybe shuda cuda.
England blow during change to 5.7, S.africa, which the mkt has just lived all game, in to 1.61. This was just crazy .. in hindsight, these were just mistakes, and should have been punished.
Run line for s.africa about 380.
This is not a typical test for durban, and am a bit confused. cant bail on eng at this price, would rather back it.
Will sit tight, and cross fingers/ do my money.
Lunch still going on, and prices bouning from a low on SA of 1.6 to 1.75 now.
Eng now 4.3 .. fuck all has happened.
SA 1.77
Eng 4.3
Draw 4.8
Wkt -- Van Zyl leaves one, and SA 0-1
SA 1.98
Eng 3.2
Draw 5
Trade - Lay 4400/2000 Eng
Wkt -- Amla goes, SA 14-2
Commentators say SA in all sorts of trouble, but, mkt still sees them as favs.
SA 2.2
Eng 2.78
Draw 5.4
Trade - Back SA 2400/2000
SA 22-2
Trade - lay Eng 4300/2000
Drinks - equity in book over 2k, but not cashing in
Devilliers given not out, by 3rd umpire .. big swing in equity for book, but, v hard for 3rd upire to give.
Tea S.Africa 55-2
S.Africa 1.82
England 4.2
Draw 4:5
book
S.Africa -£300
England +£15200
draw -£12000
Equity £550
Wkt -- Broad finally gets ABd .. now 8 from 11, times he has taken his wkt.
SA 103-3
SA 1.94
Eng 3.45
Draw 5
Drinks .. equity back to 1700 .. think Eng big price, and u have to lay S.Africa
Trade - Lay 4000/4000 SA
Wkt -- Du Plessis - 113-4
SA 2.26
Eng 2.4
Draw 6.6
Trade -- Lay 5000/3500 Eng .. just to lock in profit ...
COP
SA 137-4 .. 166 behind .. in 152 overs, which I dont really understand .. should be 180 overs in 2 days, so, we are still down 28 overs .. Early start tomorrow, but still .. why not play on tonite ?
SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
So, can book decent profits, but, not sure I want to ... will think about it.
1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 1 Trading
So, here is my book from last night :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices on Eve of test
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
During the night, Draw eased to 3.5, but morning drizzle/rain, looks like affecting the start.
S.Africa 2.30
Eng 4.0
Draw 3.15
Think they will get a deal of play in, and it's a massive toss to win.
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices on Eve of test
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
During the night, Draw eased to 3.5, but morning drizzle/rain, looks like affecting the start.
S.Africa 2.30
Eng 4.0
Draw 3.15
Think they will get a deal of play in, and it's a massive toss to win.
Against draw, for max.
Cant quite understand how a pitch that has given 8 results, in the last 8 games, has the draw this low :
Toss pushed back 30 mins.
Have v lopsided book ..
Eng win Crown Jewels, S.Africa lose small, Draw lose a fortune.
S.Africa 2.16
Eng 3.75
Draw 3.65
S.Africa win the toss and field.
S.Africa 2.08
Eng 3.75
Draw 3.9
Still with England .. Brightening up, nope ball doesn't swing too much.
Mkt aggressively against SA early, pushing them to 2.38 .. Then cook edges one.
SA 1.86
Eng 4.2
Draw 4.3
Ball doing plenty .. At least for Steyn.
//
IPad keeps dropping posts - which is giving me mega-tilt.
Early lunch taken, after lightening, then rain.
Eng 12-1
S.Africa 2.1
Eng 5.1
Draw 3.0
Still against draw ..
Eng 55-3 when more light drizzle stops play. Getting a little dark at times, so, u wonder how bad light Will impact the game.
This piece of crap iPad app driving me crazy .. Have basically same position, going for England, and against draw. S.Africa lose a little bit more than before .. I think 1.6 short enuf.
// Tea -Eng 121-3 ..
S.Africa 2.2
England 4
Draw 3.35
Same book, and would back end more, if I wasn't in balls deep.
Became impossible to update this, via Ipad, and I wont even try for the next 4 days.
My book was good, then not so good, and is now v v average, with all the value gone, as the draw has crashed to below levels I think reasonable.
At COP ..Eng 179-4 .. from a v tedious 65 overs. Play starts early tomorrow, and weather looks ok. Pitch may speed up.
S.Africa 2.6
England 4.1
Draw 2.64
Currently, have a nothing book, with v little equity. Am determined to win on England, and have both the Draw and S.Africa as losers .. the Draw. for the biggest liability.
Monday, 21 December 2015
1st Test .. S.Africa v England - Durban - Boxing Day (Pre-Game Thread)
Its been a while since the English were here .. 2011 I think, when the local currency was a tad stronger (11 Rand to the Pound .. its now 22 ... how times flies).
Its also been a while since I have done a trading thread .. so, although I wont update the thread each session, I will post my positions, up until at least end Day 4.
A week ago, some traders priced up S.Africa as strong 2.1 favs. I have eaten all of this, and my present book, is something like :
S.Africa -£7000 (laid 2.2 avg)
Eng + £5500 (backed 3.5 avg)
Draw +£5700 backed 3.7 avg)
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.44 (Big driffy .. Steyn prob plays, but Philander out)
Eng 3.2
Draw 3.65
Current Equity + £350 (I never knew, how to calculate this.. but, someone kindly told me)
Its current position/Current price .. total all 3 outcomes. So, 7000/2.44 = -2943, 5500/3.2 = 1719, 5700/3.65 =1524. (-2943+1719+1524=350)
I think the current prices are better, but, would still have S.Africa bigger, and the draw shorter.
Above posted, 5 days before game.
Some recent Test 'form' :
In Tests since 1994 : S.Africa v England stats courtesy of S.Rajesh (cricinfo) @rajeshstats
In South Africa .. 19 tests, SA won 5, Eng won 4, Draws 10
In England .. 20 tests, SA won 8, Eng won 6, Draws 6
Total .. 39 tests, SA won 13, Eng won 10, Drawn 16
Playing at home, there tends to be results .. just 6 draws, in the last 47 tests in S.Africa (thou that number maybe looks low, as SA played some real rubbish opponents.
//////
Eng won the warm-up game ina a canter, and it doesnt look like any of those S.African 'possibles' will get the nod for the 1st 2 Tests, at least.
Some drizzle today in Durban .. the draw went 3.8, and I added to my position/backed Eng.
Currently, v similar to last night :
S.Africa -£8100
Eng + £7400
Draw +£5100
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.28 .. went to 2.5 during the day.
Eng 3.3
Draw 3.55
Current Equity + £300
//// - Wee hrs, Wednesday morning .. Appears Anderson Doubtful
So, this is not good, at least for my position.
S,Africa 2.22 in a thin mkt
England 3.75
Draw 3.45
Current Equity -£300
The question is now, whether to panic .. or at least, would like to panic, as the mkt wont let u do much, at 3 am.
Will wait ..
////
Test starts on Sat .. hope for some early disruptions .. thou, u should be aware, the last 8 tests at the ground have produced results, and .. in general, there are less draws in S.Africa, than other major centres. - Centurion and Johannesburg have only had 1 draw each, out of 19 Tests in the last 10 yrs.
The pitch looks pretty benign ..
On the strength of the above, plus some belief the start will see some poor weather, I added to my draw bias.
S.Africa -£10800
Eng + £9000
Draw +£8000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.42 .. interesting move, and might highlight weakness during test
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £500
This is probably as big an exposure I will trade, pre-game.
//
Evening - Test starts in 57 hrs :
In previous trading threads, I have posted pics of my positions on various exchanges.
This yr, its gonna be harder, as I am trying to reduce my use of Betfair .. and using more external sources.
I have 5 main outlets .. and I may decide or not, to picturise my positions. It will be v time consuming to take pics of everywhere .. thou, I understand, the pics add legitimacy.
I will mull over it, but, right now, dont hold your breath.
What makes it harder, is there are exchange biases .. I have no doubt, Betdaq will be biased towards England, and against the draw. Matchbook will generally follow Betfair. Indian mkts, dont exist, so, I wont be using those, either.
I should also add, my positions are v v fluid. I have a tissue (prices), which I work to .. when they get to these, I cut-back or extend my position. I wont flip excessively, but, dont be surprised, if my book come Day 4, is v dissimilar to todays. I will try to explain my rationale as the Test goes along, but, I do a deal of market making .. and its not always easy to post etc.
Anyone who follows these positions, for their own book, are naive/stupid.
Based on the ground stats, the amount time that can be made up etc (thou bad light may curtail this), my percieved weakness of the S.African batting .. I would expect my final book to be v lopsided against S.Africa, and maybe 75/25 in fav of Eng, over the draw. But, I have no set-in-stone convictions.
My bank for the game, is £20k.
Some local sports books in S.Africa have decent arbs, (no Tax on wins), but, will limit u pretty quick, unless u have a losing history. A lot of work, but, maybe worth it.
////
Evening, 24th
Anderson confirmed out.
Weather picture. arguably, improved.
I have tinkered a bit, but, nothing really dramatic. I might cut-back my S.African exposure by 2k or so, but, not at 2.30.
S.Africa -£8800
Eng + £7700
Draw +£6000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.3 ..
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.5
Current Equity + £580
////
Ahem, this is a stuff-up. The Current Equity figs are wrong ..
Current equity is + 110
///
Xmas morning, and its raining in Dueban, albeit lightly. This was expected, so a little surprised to see the draw crash thru 2.8.
Morning of Day 1 looks like being disrupted, but, I cant have these prices, and have re-arranged some deckchairs..
S.Africa -£7800
Eng + £8800
Draw +£4000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.52 .. touched 2.6x ??
Eng 4.0 .. v weak ..
Draw 2.74
Current Equity + £560 .. This fig is right, my excel calc, was adding in a rogue figure.
England posted picture from Kingsmead . doesnt seem so bad :
.
Its also been a while since I have done a trading thread .. so, although I wont update the thread each session, I will post my positions, up until at least end Day 4.
A week ago, some traders priced up S.Africa as strong 2.1 favs. I have eaten all of this, and my present book, is something like :
S.Africa -£7000 (laid 2.2 avg)
Eng + £5500 (backed 3.5 avg)
Draw +£5700 backed 3.7 avg)
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.44 (Big driffy .. Steyn prob plays, but Philander out)
Eng 3.2
Draw 3.65
Current Equity + £350 (I never knew, how to calculate this.. but, someone kindly told me)
Its current position/Current price .. total all 3 outcomes. So, 7000/2.44 = -2943, 5500/3.2 = 1719, 5700/3.65 =1524. (-2943+1719+1524=350)
I think the current prices are better, but, would still have S.Africa bigger, and the draw shorter.
Above posted, 5 days before game.
Some recent Test 'form' :
In Tests since 1994 : S.Africa v England stats courtesy of S.Rajesh (cricinfo) @rajeshstats
In South Africa .. 19 tests, SA won 5, Eng won 4, Draws 10
In England .. 20 tests, SA won 8, Eng won 6, Draws 6
Total .. 39 tests, SA won 13, Eng won 10, Drawn 16
Playing at home, there tends to be results .. just 6 draws, in the last 47 tests in S.Africa (thou that number maybe looks low, as SA played some real rubbish opponents.
//////
Eng won the warm-up game ina a canter, and it doesnt look like any of those S.African 'possibles' will get the nod for the 1st 2 Tests, at least.
Some drizzle today in Durban .. the draw went 3.8, and I added to my position/backed Eng.
Currently, v similar to last night :
S.Africa -£8100
Eng + £7400
Draw +£5100
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.28 .. went to 2.5 during the day.
Eng 3.3
Draw 3.55
Current Equity + £300
//// - Wee hrs, Wednesday morning .. Appears Anderson Doubtful
So, this is not good, at least for my position.
S,Africa 2.22 in a thin mkt
England 3.75
Draw 3.45
Current Equity -£300
The question is now, whether to panic .. or at least, would like to panic, as the mkt wont let u do much, at 3 am.
Will wait ..
////
Source : Cricinfo
Source : bbctms twitter
S.Africa -£10800
Eng + £9000
Draw +£8000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.42 .. interesting move, and might highlight weakness during test
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £500
This is probably as big an exposure I will trade, pre-game.
//
Evening - Test starts in 57 hrs :
In previous trading threads, I have posted pics of my positions on various exchanges.
This yr, its gonna be harder, as I am trying to reduce my use of Betfair .. and using more external sources.
I have 5 main outlets .. and I may decide or not, to picturise my positions. It will be v time consuming to take pics of everywhere .. thou, I understand, the pics add legitimacy.
I will mull over it, but, right now, dont hold your breath.
What makes it harder, is there are exchange biases .. I have no doubt, Betdaq will be biased towards England, and against the draw. Matchbook will generally follow Betfair. Indian mkts, dont exist, so, I wont be using those, either.
I should also add, my positions are v v fluid. I have a tissue (prices), which I work to .. when they get to these, I cut-back or extend my position. I wont flip excessively, but, dont be surprised, if my book come Day 4, is v dissimilar to todays. I will try to explain my rationale as the Test goes along, but, I do a deal of market making .. and its not always easy to post etc.
Anyone who follows these positions, for their own book, are naive/stupid.
Based on the ground stats, the amount time that can be made up etc (thou bad light may curtail this), my percieved weakness of the S.African batting .. I would expect my final book to be v lopsided against S.Africa, and maybe 75/25 in fav of Eng, over the draw. But, I have no set-in-stone convictions.
My bank for the game, is £20k.
Some local sports books in S.Africa have decent arbs, (no Tax on wins), but, will limit u pretty quick, unless u have a losing history. A lot of work, but, maybe worth it.
////
Evening, 24th
Anderson confirmed out.
Weather picture. arguably, improved.
I have tinkered a bit, but, nothing really dramatic. I might cut-back my S.African exposure by 2k or so, but, not at 2.30.
S.Africa -£8800
Eng + £7700
Draw +£6000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.3 ..
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.5
Current Equity + £580
////
Ahem, this is a stuff-up. The Current Equity figs are wrong ..
Current equity is + 110
///
Xmas morning, and its raining in Dueban, albeit lightly. This was expected, so a little surprised to see the draw crash thru 2.8.
Morning of Day 1 looks like being disrupted, but, I cant have these prices, and have re-arranged some deckchairs..
S.Africa -£7800
Eng + £8800
Draw +£4000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.52 .. touched 2.6x ??
Eng 4.0 .. v weak ..
Draw 2.74
Current Equity + £560 .. This fig is right, my excel calc, was adding in a rogue figure.
England posted picture from Kingsmead . doesnt seem so bad :
I am laying Draw at 2.9 .. this price is just wrong (IMHO), will make it level.
Just laid some 2.7 Draw .. now a loser, for me, but, good equity in book.
Just laid some 2.7 Draw .. now a loser, for me, but, good equity in book.
Odd tinge of green in the pitch .. happy to lay draw at these levels, thou nagging worry, who is taking these prices ??
Root has recovered from stomach illness, and will play.
Woakes confirmed as replacement for Anderson.
Almost time for Xmas dinner .. so, as will likely not post before Midnite, lets tie things off.
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.46
Eng 4.0
Draw 2.88
Current Equity + £480
Am tempted to lay 2.9 draw, for Bigs, but, its Xmas.
The price makes little sense, compared to previous evenings, and expect it to meander back to above 3.3.
I have some orders left open, in various places.
///
Xmas Day eve ..
Well, whoda thght it. Draw price corrected :
Rain may be around before play starts, but, shouldnt last too long. I would have draw 3.75+
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
Happy with balance of book, thou, could have laid more draw, at 2.7 this morning.
Root has recovered from stomach illness, and will play.
Woakes confirmed as replacement for Anderson.
Almost time for Xmas dinner .. so, as will likely not post before Midnite, lets tie things off.
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.46
Eng 4.0
Draw 2.88
Current Equity + £480
Am tempted to lay 2.9 draw, for Bigs, but, its Xmas.
The price makes little sense, compared to previous evenings, and expect it to meander back to above 3.3.
I have some orders left open, in various places.
///
Xmas Day eve ..
Well, whoda thght it. Draw price corrected :
Rain may be around before play starts, but, shouldnt last too long. I would have draw 3.75+
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
Happy with balance of book, thou, could have laid more draw, at 2.7 this morning.
Monday, 12 October 2015
The power of a Lemon ...
So, its Monday morning, am am mindlessly watching some Poker on Youtube.
On different monitors, I have the Test match mkts up .. (Tomorrow, Pak play Eng in Dubai), and am thinking about some bets.
For the uninformed, a test match is scheduled to last 5 days, and will result in either :
Team A win
Team B wins
Its a Draw (no-one wins)
Its a Tie .. (about a 3000/1 chance)
Cricket markets get a lot of liquidity from India, where, they are conditioned to having a position around the Draw. This causes it to be over-bet .. but, with new cricket laws/more aggressive play, there are currently less draws than the mkt thinks = Value to oppose.
Some stats :
Since the last cricket World Cup, there have been 23 tests .. for each, the Draw price normally starts about 3.25, but often trades below 2.0
4 have finished on Day 3
6 have finished on Day 4
5 have finished on Day 5
and there have been 5 draws .. so, the true probability is 5/23 or, close to 5.5 (9/2).
Present odds for the game tomorrow :
Pakistan 2.4
England 3.35
Draw 3.5
Some people would be laying 3.5 the Draw ...
Now for the lemon :
On the poker, there was a water-dispenser .. and there was a sign saying, dont put lemons in styrofoam cups.
The lemon contains limonene, better known as Citra-solv, and this will dissolve the syrofoam.
Its not hazardous to health, but, eventually, it will dissolve the cup, leaving u with a 'non-toxic' substance like model-airplane glue ..
See .. u learn something every-day.
On different monitors, I have the Test match mkts up .. (Tomorrow, Pak play Eng in Dubai), and am thinking about some bets.
For the uninformed, a test match is scheduled to last 5 days, and will result in either :
Team A win
Team B wins
Its a Draw (no-one wins)
Its a Tie .. (about a 3000/1 chance)
Cricket markets get a lot of liquidity from India, where, they are conditioned to having a position around the Draw. This causes it to be over-bet .. but, with new cricket laws/more aggressive play, there are currently less draws than the mkt thinks = Value to oppose.
Some stats :
Since the last cricket World Cup, there have been 23 tests .. for each, the Draw price normally starts about 3.25, but often trades below 2.0
4 have finished on Day 3
6 have finished on Day 4
5 have finished on Day 5
and there have been 5 draws .. so, the true probability is 5/23 or, close to 5.5 (9/2).
Present odds for the game tomorrow :
Pakistan 2.4
England 3.35
Draw 3.5
Some people would be laying 3.5 the Draw ...
Now for the lemon :
On the poker, there was a water-dispenser .. and there was a sign saying, dont put lemons in styrofoam cups.
The lemon contains limonene, better known as Citra-solv, and this will dissolve the syrofoam.
Its not hazardous to health, but, eventually, it will dissolve the cup, leaving u with a 'non-toxic' substance like model-airplane glue ..
See .. u learn something every-day.
Wednesday, 5 March 2014
Day 5 - 3rd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Newlands
Australia's game to win, but,this pitch is really holding together.
U wonder if the groundsman was reluctant to see the repeat if the game 3 yrs ago, when S.Africa were bowled for a 100, and Aus 47, leaving the game over in 3 days ....
Anyway, 4 down at the start of play, they just lose the night watchman in the morning session .. 122-5 at Lunch .. New ball due soon.
Ab dev and Faff have records for batting long, in this sort of situation .. They might have a chance ..
Tea - S.Africa 201-7 ..hanging on .. But, it's not easy for Australia .. Thou ball is now doing stuff.
Game yo-yo a bit .. With Aus going 4.3 at one point, but, they finally win, as Harris gets 2 in 3 balls, with 4 overs left in the game.
A great test match .. Aus deserved to win the series .. Thou, some of their on-field behaviour, is crass.
Posted with BlogsyMonday, 3 March 2014
Day 4 - 3rd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Newlands
Captain Smith announces his retirement at the end of this Test. Ponting did similar, and lost his last Test. Think this may go, the same way.
He was a v decent captain, .. Far too conservative for my liking, in the early part of his career, but, has got better, in my eyes, over the last 3 yrs.
His run making, was always ugly, but, he got the runs .. Thou, in this series, his firm has been dire .. Averaging 8
Looking forward to 2 sessions of free batting .. Warner can do some real damage ...
Drinks - Aus 125-1 .. Lead by 332
Warner having some fun .. Expect dec, mid-way after lunch.
Aus went on a bit .. But, have no objections, as they scored so fast.
Setting S.Africa 520 or so, they were 4 down at the close, with the ball starting to reverse. Before it reversed, it was fairly easy to play .. But, if it continues int he morning, this should be over, by tea.
Aus 1.25
Draw 5.0
3rd Day - 3rd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Newlands
Clarke declares ..
At drinks, S.Africa 55-2, on a nice day for Ckt.
Think Aus will get steady wkts, draw at sub 2.00, is a lay.
At lunch, S.Africa 127/4 .. U would have to say, Aus on top.
S. Africa 370 behind, and the ball starting to reverse.
S.Africa 20
Australia 1.86
Draw 2.4
Tea .. S.Africa 200-6 .. 297 behind ..
Game is going quite slowly .. So, another maybe 10 overs lost to the game, but, if Aus get the last 4, tonite, this should set-up a v hard last day.
S.Africa 17
Australia 1.67
Draw 2.84
S.Africa 287 all out .. Not great, on a pitch that looked pretty fair for batting .. Trail by 210 ..
Aus will no doubt best for .. 50 odd overs, maybe more, score 200 and get S.Africa back in.
Time left in this game now .. Can't see how Aus don't win.
S.Africa 18
Aus 1.55
Draw 3.1
Sunday, 2 March 2014
Day 2 - 3rd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Newlands
Day 2 .. Aus finished at 331-3, with some brave cricket by Michael Clarke.
A little rain expected in the afternoon, but, clear for last 3 days of the match, so, shouldn't affect outcome.
My book is fucked .. Gonna turn the page.
Drinks .. 381-3 .. Still scoring quick, thou Abbott has bowled super. Steyn not in pitch, looks unlikely to play a part in this match.
S.Africa 20
Aus 2.0
Draw 2.18
Lunch - windy as anything, and mountain obscured by cloud .. It's raining on mountain, according to the idiots on the radio.
Aus 434-4 .. I reckon they look for 575 .. And put SA in, after a Tea.
S.Africa 23
Aus 2.06
Draw 2.10
39 overs in, and rain arrives and doesn't budge. 51 overs lost in the day .. 2 were lost on Day 1, so, despite 30 mins early start, day 3/4/5, overs being lost from the game.
Aus 494-7
Steyn may bowl in second inngs ..
The batting line-up for S.Africa does look a bit stronger, with Elgar and Du Plessis .. So, maybe they can hang on for a draw, .. Hard to see them winning.
S.Africa 17
Aus 2.34
Draw 1.90
Book still record losses ...
Saturday, 1 March 2014
Day 1 - 3rd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Cape Town
Some thoughts of a few showers, maybe, on day 1/2 of the test, but fine weather thereafter, so, hard to see a draw.
S.Africa 2.34
Aus 3.2
Draw 3.80
Aus win the toss, and decidet to bat. Warner plays as expansively as ever, and take Aus to 118-1 at Lunch .. SA bowled moderately.
S.Africa 4.3
Aus 2.34
Draw 3.0
Have a shit book .. Going for S.Africa / laying draw ...
SA got Doolan fairly early, but, despite a superb spell of bowling from Morkel, they couldn't get another. Clarke survived a fearsome spell .. And deserves to get a 50 ..
At Tea .. Aus 195-2 ..
S.Africa 6.4
Aus 2.2
Draw 2.58
Prices look about right, especially as Steyn off with a hamstring strain.
My book, looks max loss territory.
Aus 331-3 .. And am looking at largest loss for 10 yrs.
Hard to say anything else ..
Wednesday, 26 February 2014
3rd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Cape Town
So, the 3 match series is 1-1 .. And all eyes look ahead to Cape Town, which looks like being a v well attended game.
3 days before,in glorious weather, they bet :
S.Africa 2.30
Australia 3.25
Draw 3.8
I don't understand the draw price .. The weather right now, is stunning, and average rainfall for this time if yr, is v low.
Forecasts have maybe, some drizzle, on the odd day, followed by days of hot clear weather.
For test 1, the draw was 5.0, and 3.8, looks a v cheap lay, to me.
Watson has recovered enough, to play, and hopefully, Kyle Abbott wil play for S.Africa.
3 days before,in glorious weather, they bet :
S.Africa 2.30
Australia 3.25
Draw 3.8
I don't understand the draw price .. The weather right now, is stunning, and average rainfall for this time if yr, is v low.
Forecasts have maybe, some drizzle, on the odd day, followed by days of hot clear weather.
For test 1, the draw was 5.0, and 3.8, looks a v cheap lay, to me.
Watson has recovered enough, to play, and hopefully, Kyle Abbott wil play for S.Africa.
Sunday, 23 February 2014
Day 4 - 2nd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Port Elizabeth
Gorgeous start to day, forecast for Monday improving, and think doom mongers for tomorrow are all wrong.
I am heavily against draw.
Draw dived to 2.40 .. Who are these idiots ?
SA declare .. Setting Aus 445 ..just before lunch .. I expecting 55 overs tomorrow, so, Aus got a sniff.
S.Africa 1.73
Aus 11
Draw 2.94
Lunch. And Aus batting well .. 31-0 .. Mkt rethinks Aus chance of winning this.
S.Africa 2.12
Aus 7.0
Draw 2.56
Drinks .. Aus 99-0 .. SA's 3 bowlers, getting nothing from pitch.
Max with Aus
S.Africa 3.75
Aus 3.75
Draw 2.24 .. Draw stupid short
Aus into 3.25, but lose Warner .. Spinners getting some turn.
Aus 127-1 .. Need 321 more
S.Africa 2.5
Aus 5.5
Draw 2.38
Run rate might slow now .. Good game
Tea .. Aus 141-1 .. Rogers hit one, but, no review by SA.
S.Africa 2.82
Aus 5.2
Draw 2.16
U could argue, all prices are wrong.
After Tea, Steyn gets some real fire, and Aus 6 down.
Aus 166-6 ..
S.Africa 1.19
Aus 140
Draw 6.2
All over .. And it never rained on Day 5 ....
Saturday, 22 February 2014
Day 3 - 2nd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Port Elizabeth
Gorgeous day, and forecast is great for day 4, thou day 5, looks bad.
A little wind, so might get some swing .. Huge 1st session !
At lunch, Aus wobbling at 205-8 .. Needing 20 more, to avoid follow-on, if it's enforced.
Monday weather is key .. Any one got any ideas ?
S.Africa 1.77
Aus 17
Draw 2.62
Day kicked on, but spent most of it looking at weather charts for Monday.
At COP day 3, SA are 363-4 .. Net.
Apocalyptic weather forecasts for Monday .. Which may or may not be accurate.
Currently .. Blissful ..
S.Africa 1.57
Aus 18
Draw 3.2
Thursday, 20 February 2014
Day 2 - 2nd Test - S.Africa v Australia - Port Elizabeth
V curious weather systems in this area .. Mild drizzle, 100km away, up the coast, but PE clear, and looks likely to stay that way, for at least most of the day.
S.Africa losing the 2 cheap wkts at the end, certainly affects the game, and with a new ball this morning, under some cloud think the Aussie attack, might get some sticks.
S.Africa 3.3
Australia 3.45
Draw 2.40. ?
I have draw much bigger, and have laid.
Radar has a little rain around, but think wind will blow it away, and next 2 days, look v clear, to make up any lost time, (if there is any).
Ball doing nothing ..S.Africa 240-5 .. Brighter, but looks like only mistakes will take wkts .. Not impossible, and maybe pitch will wear ..
Drinks .. S.Africa 263-5 .. Pretty good start for them .. Bowlers look flat, maybe it's the pitch .. Will be interesting to see Steyn/Morkel/Philander, especially if they have niggles.
S.Africa 3.2
Aus 7.6
Draw 1.77
Lunch .. And a session to S.Africa !!
323-5 .. ABDev 102 n.o., and JP 59 n.o.
S.Africa 2.92
Aus 14
Draw 1.69
Bright enough, so imagine lotsa play today .. Maybe S.A get 475 before the close, and get some overs at Aus.
For now, still looks a road.
Mid-way after lunch, and ABDev goes, for a well compiled 100.
374-6 .. Quite bright, thou some dark clouds from the west.
S.Africa 3.45
Aus 13
Draw 1.56
At tea - S.Africa 413-8 .. JP still there on 118, but, with only Steyn and Morkel, u would expect, maybe another 50 runs.
Some talk about a declaration, but, I can't see it.
Still fairly light, think they will go to natural close of play, or v close.
Game is really lifeless .. Prices not moving much.
After tea, S.Africa quickly 423 all out .. Leaves quite a few overs tonite, in good light.
One key thing, is the final test, is in 4 days after the end of this one .. Maybe, the fast bowlers will be looked after, if no wkts early. S.Africa didn't play a spinner, which looks odd.
At change of innings :
S.Africa 3.7
Aus 8.0
Draw 1.64
Amazing session after Tea .. S.Africa bowled with real menace . . Could have had 6, easy.
Aus 112-4 .. 312 behind ..
S.Africa 2.12
Aus 13
Draw 2.22
Monday forecast, v ropes .. Might lose 45 overs.
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