Saturday, 17 December 2016

And so this is Christmas ..

Almost there .. but, not likely to see any snow, where I live.

Gonna share the day, on a dam, with family (like 30 people), and just veg.

Starting to look back at the yr, and what, if anything I achieved.

1. Played a lot more golf .. this was good and bad .. the crowd I play with, are elderly, and a few pop-off every now and again. The troubling thing, is that when I play with them, they seem fine .. and develop cancer, a few weeks/mths later, and seem to not last more than 6 mths.

Its a sick disease - and u really just gotta give thanks, when u wake up in the morning.

Best round of the yr .. a 83 .. and I def have the potential to go lower - especially if I put some work in at the gym. Been playing squash with the kids, and I have a few mths, before they beat me into the ground, so .. am enjoying it.

2. Watched a deal of cricket .. and the markets / technology are changing. U have to keep moving, to stay ahead, and try and pay the bills ..

3. Really enjoying some Vlogs .. I must give a shout-out to this one .. its about 20 Vlogs in .. and its v decent :

4. Spent 7 weeks in the USA, and looking forward to returning, next yr .. hopeful we can mix in some sports betting, and even more hopeful, more states legalise it, within 2 yrs.

Thanks for all the postive messages .. am short various financial indexes, and long dollar. Expect the worst !!

Anyway .. basically, more of the same .. hope u all have a peaceful time over the festive season.

Monday, 12 December 2016

Cricket in India ...

I was watching some poker Vlogs, and youtube suddenly suggested a few new videos.

From a link, I found , which on the website, is ingeniously changed to, so, they don't get grief from the exchange.

For an explanation, of what some of the terms on the website mean, here is another video :

Its interesting stuff, and u can see why India sends so many callers to grounds, relaying ball by ball info.

Its a massive market. I was exposed to Indian Bookies, maybe 10 years ago, and watched one setting the 'rate' .. it was rhythmical .. like the beat of a drum, how the quote would go 34-36, 34-36, 35-37 ...

The bet size, was enormous // not like the 2 bit online bookies  - which leads me to a pet grief, how S.African bookies, can quote .. for tomorrows T20 match : 70c Warriors - 101c Lions ..

For a start, Lions beat them in Durban .. leaving aside the theft of the pricing ...

Win-rates of poker v exchange players

I have been viewing a lot of Vlogs (Video logs), put out by 'successful' poker players, who want to maybe create a second income stream.

This is a good idea .. it doesn't take too long, and the video editing process, has gotten a lot easier.

One day, I might consider doing a Vlog, but, its maybe premature.

One of the videos, took a decent look at win-rate, of what a pro poker player, (in Vegas), might make.

Vegas is a cheap place to live - games run 24/7, and has the good/bad features, of a gambling mecca.

A medium pro, might look to win 10 Big Blinds per hour, after maybe 3 mths of study. For No Limit Hold-em, the games are typically, $1/2 .. so, the small blind is $1, the Big Blind $2. If u play 40 hours a week, you might make $800 a week, $3200 a mth.

That's for an accomplished pro .. so, maybe 7 BB is more realistic .. which equates to $560 a week, or $2240 a mth. Its ok, etc, but, with expenses .. we haven't really discussed if the pro has a family etc, its not really enough.

The games do run higher .. $2/$5, or $5/$10 are available .. and the skill level to beat 2/5, isn't that much higher then 1/2, but, the bankroll needed to sustain yourself, during the inevitable downswings, is much bigger.

Anyway, I was thinking, of the return, an exchange player, can make per hour.

Its obviously less well documented. A few blogs will post P/L cols for the day, but, what u really want to see, is the Premium Charge statement .. which gives weekly P/L, and cumulative numbers.

If a trader sits at his desk, and churns out 40 hours .. whats his expected return ? For me, a 7 hr test day .. using  a bank of £10k, I would like to think £200-£400 a day is expected return. If I traded horse-racing, it would be considerably less. How many BB / Hr does that equate to ?

Say £50 an hr .. is not so far away, from the $50/hr, a $2/$5 pro would expect to make, especially if the exchange trader then has to pay PC.

The lives are roughly similar .. sedentary jobs, 'achieving' nothing, but accumulating cash. Its possible the exchange trader could automate some of his stuff .. but, this is easier said than done .. I am getting v suspicious of the automated programs, which try to make u believe, 'any one can do it' - I certainly cant - and I have really tried.