Sunday, 19 April 2015

Wealth warning

In this age of PC (political correctness, not, the Premium Charge), a lot of things carry warnings.

I have looked my wife over, and there is no stamp anywhere .. and this is a flaw in the design process.

2 yrs ago, I was not listening .. something I often do, and got conned into agreeing to build a new house - almost from scratch, on some land, we did buy, fairly cheaply. Ok, its not a small house - and I did make some changes, but, the initial timeframe/budget(target), (((has anyone spent LESS building a house???)))), has now ballooned so far, that its rapidly becoming unfunny.

The latest, little extra, is a remodelling of the driveway - which, we got a 'Lofty' in to help with.

These are fun little machines - ok, not so little - which cost about $40 an hr to hire, plus removal costs of all the earth the disrupt.

As u can see, we now have a lot of bare earth .. but, unfortunately, it has rained, almost non-stop, since the dig, and we now have a gigantic mud-slide.

Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Happy little hampster

I have had a busy last 3 mths. This seems to be a common theme with me .. maybe I am a 110% person, who just cant rest, be it working or doing sporting stuff.

The majority of it, has been spent in the US of A - with my time mainly spent in between New York/Baltimore and Tampa.

The time was exceptionally interesting, and let me un-wind a bit, from the intense ckt schedule I seem to maintain, and generally think about things.

I did a lot of the thinking, whilst at a poker table, playing either $1/2 No limit holdem, or $2/$5 Nlhe. Thou they should be roughly the same game, its like comparing test ckt, to T20's, each have their own dynamic.

Professional players - known as regs - try and grind at the low limits - 8-10 hrs a day, trying to average $15 an hr - which is barely minimum wage. These regs, are by no-means bad players - the casino rake, is just so big, that, u have to play a v defensive style, to win, and its both mundane, and demoralising, to experience 'variance' - which in Poker, happens, probably more than in ckt.

By variance, I mean - a reg can sit for 2 hrs, folding everything, finally picking up pocket Aces, the best starting hand - and maybe, if hes lucky, get to play a $400 pot, where he might be 60/40 fav, 80/20 fav, 95/5% fav .. but, might lose, in anyone of those spots. Mentally and financially, thats v tough - tilt can easily ensue - but, it obviously happens, if u are playing for a living.

I played a lot .. maybe 100 hrs .. (I just love the challenge - even thou, its def -EV, for me to even sit there) and came to a number of conclusions - some of which I will share :

1) The US is a phenomenal country.

2) The US has some v odd state laws, re both poker and sports betting

3) Poker regs, are a solid bunch of people

4) The edge I have found in ckt, is colossal, compared to what these people put themselves thru.

Number 4, is a watershed moment for me.

Although many poker forums, will debate how to play certain hands in certain spots, often the advice is non-optimal.

This is becos Poker has become v hard to beat - at least, its definitely not as easy to beat, as it was, before the US banned internet poker - the poker player pool has declined, and those left, are more regs, than fish.

Twitch - may help change this. Twitch is a platform, which gamers stream their screen, while they are playing some shoot-em-up game - getting thousands of followers - but, recently, Jason Sommerville, who streams as jcarver, has been getting 7-10k viewers - who watch him play 8-10 hrs of poker a day - while he explain his thought process/entertains. Twitch is largely free - but, if u pay a nominal amount, u can chat directly to the streamer .. maybe $5 a mth, but, obviously $5 a mth, from 10k people, is worth having.

Getting access to a huge player pool, is enormous, for all dynamics. Right now, it maybe, just sub-30 yr olds watching, who have few financial resources. But, given the right level of education, they can learn/earn.

This platform, may one day - be useful for pro traders .. but, I dont think that day, is yet here.

Maybe when, the US legalises internet sports betting ??