Womens Ashes - Test at Canterbury

The female Ashes series has gotton a lot of media coverage, with attendances and TV viewers being roundly sought after.

I attended the One Day game at Worcester, and it seemed pretty clear to me, Australia have a very solid top/middle order, which England never looked like breaking down.

On the eve of the game, most bookies bet, something like :

Eng 3.4

Australia 2.6

Draw 2.8

Its only a 4 day game, so, the draw has a decent chance. I would have England, much bigger, and although the markets are v small, have a position against England.

///

Aus win the toss and bat.

Overcast, so, do respect the draw, but, cant fathom how England are gonna take 20 wickets, so, have laid max Eng at 3.75 avg.

//

Aus 54-0 after 16 overs ;

Eng 8.00

Australia 2.7

Draw 1.94


Nice to look at a green book, after last week.

//

This is going pear .. from 80-2 at Lunch, Shrubsole has bowled really well, and Aussies look in a fair amount of trouble, at 97-4.

Eng 2.6

Aus 3.2

Draw 3.0

Have laid more Eng.

//

100-5 and Eng touch 1.90 .. laid more, so, my overall avg is now 2,7

Will try to reduce liability, if it gets back there.

//

Aus 126-5

Eng 2.70

Aus 3.5

Draw 2.80

///

COP Aus 268-8 .. which is a v fair effort, given they were 100-5.

Current prices, (with weather forecast generally improving)

Eng 4.4

Aus 2.4

Draw 2.80

Now comes the traders dilema. I can bank a profit, (which usually is a reasonable option, and even feel, 4.5 or so on Eng, is about right - but, still cant pull the trigger).

I am genuinely surprised, Lanning and Perry scored so few runs, and have to believe, they will be better in the 2nd dig.

If  I had no previous position on this game, I would lay the draw .. but, have a fair amount of travel in the next few days, making weather watching tricky, so, I will probably just leave my position as is.


//

Day 2 - and some nasty rain, came from almost no-where. Delayed start, to about 12.30, but, time can be made up .. might lose 8 overs today.

4th Ashes Test - Trent bridge

I may do a blog on this test, even thou, I cant watch much of days 1 and 2.

On the eve of the game, they now bet :

England 3.2

Australia  2.08

Draw 4.6

Over the last week, the draw has been the really weak link - maybe the groundsman is worried he produced such a poor pitch for the England v India game last yr, that, hes determined this will have more life.

The weather forecast is better, but, I still cant have England this short, and have a big position against them, going in.

///


Aus lose the toss, and Eng decide to bowl, on what did look to be a green-top.

At start of play :

England 3.0

Australia 2.12

Draw 5.1

//

Australia lose 3 wickets, inside the first 2 overs :

England 1.58

Australia 3.75

Draw 9.6

//

Going for a long walk ..

//

Done a few laps, and booked the loss at the end of the day .. U could argue, I should have bailed, once they lost the toss, and were put in .. but, thats gambling.

England 2 - Australia 1

3 games in, and although I did get to watch a lot of game 3, I must confess to being a little jaded with the contest.

England and Australia both have serious weak links, and it was always a question, of which link would prove most vital.

Having won the Edgbaston test, in 2 and a half days, losing Jimmy Anderson may prove to be the pivotal point of the contest.

Initial compilers, priced game 4 as :

England 3.2

Australia 2.4

Draw 3.7

At these odds, I have Eng a max lay .. win or lose, they cannot start that price - I would have them seriously bigger than 4.3 - and have laid with gusto.

England 1 - Australia 0

The 1st Ashes test ends in 4 days .. and its not a steam-roller job from Australia.

I didn't actually watch much of this, listening mainly on the radio, whilst watching cricket elsewhere, (about which, I will write later).

Its possible Aus were a little under-done, but, Eng have momentum .. the Lords test will be fascinating viewing ..

The Ashes 2015 - prepare for another over-hyped series

As u get older, u have experienced more, and sporting things, tend to become less relevant, and certainly, less exciting, than, when they were first enjoyed.

After the pleasure of watching England and New Zealand play cricket, in a sense of enjoyment, rather, than purely trying to win, am preparing myself for the shit-storm,that will no doubt hit, when Australia play England in their back-yard.

Series betting is as follows :

England to Win ..5.5

Australia to win 1.40

Drawn Series ..9.0

England are a work-in-progress type team, with some pretty tired bowlers, but, they generally, have been v hard to beat at home. Australia to win 5-0, are only 13/1, which, to me, is an insane price, given the prices for the first test in Cardiff are :

England  4.5

Australia  2.06

Draw 3.55

I would advise a maximum lay of Aus to  win 5-0, but, it involves tying up a decent chunk of your bank, for 5 weeks or so.

I think Aus are a little over-rated, and have laid the 1.40, for Aus to win the series.

Ashes Review

Haven't much energy these days, for what seem to be boring/repetitive games, but, felt I missed a major opportunity in the 5th and final Test.

After 3 days, a draw was looking v likely, with rain forecast to fall all day, on the 4th day.

In the evening of the 3rd day, the draw was trading at 1.08/1.09, and thou it looked v likely, I didn't feel the rain would be as heavy as expected, and left up a speculative lay, of £50k, at 1.06 - liability £3k.

In the wee hours, the draw drifted to 1.10, so, I cancelled the trade, only to see the draw trading at 1.03, pre day 4, as the weather moved in.

Day 4 was a washout, and the draw traded £2m at 1.01, and England traded 660/1 .. Which, it was a mistake, not to get involved with.

Day 5, saw an early dec by Clarke, and England went as low at 1.5,before finally falling short, by 20 odd runs, due to bad light.

I won smalls on the test, but, have the feeling, one got away.

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4th Ashes Test - Durham - Day 4/5

Radar seems to indicate rain will likely fall, after 2pm, on the 4th day.

This might not be terminal, but, if England are still batting, will throw various spammers into the works.

 

Some jumpy market moves, already.

Draw down to 3.75, in the early horse, back to 5.0 at the start, and within 3 overs, back to sub 4.0.

Eng 248-5. Lead by 216 .. Rain probably in 2 hrs.

Eng 1.76

Aus 5.2

Draw 4.0

 

Bell goes to a grub-hunter, 251-6, lead by 219

New ball

Eng 1.77

Aus 3.45

Draw 6.6

 

And then, next ball, another.

Eng 1.77

Aus 2.86

Draw 12

 

Drinks

Eng 306-8. .. Some v quick runs for England, mainly from Bresnan.

Eng 1.58

Aus 3.4

Draw 12 .. Which, is absolute madness

 

England 330 all out, lead by 299

Just before lunch, and no rain yet. Tomorrow looks reasonably clear, but draw, as ever, refuses to go away ...

Eng 1.59

Aus 3.1

Draw 17.5 ???

 

Aus 10-0 .. Eng lose a review .. One day, these will get priced in, properly.

Rain delay, but not for too long. Draw backers a bit unlucky, as some really heavy stuff, just slid by. Eng bowlers look a trifle unlucky, and Hill still getting a few wrong, but Aus so far, survive.

Aus 50-0

Eng 2.18

Aus 1.98

Draw 24

 

Aus 97-0

 

Eng 3.75

Aus 1.40

Draw 48

Aussie game to lose now .. Rain keeping away .. Tea in 20 mins, and light might start to go, but, Aussie doing it easy.

 

Aus 111-1

 

Eng 3.2

Aus 1.48

Draw 48

 

Aus 151-2

 

Eng 4.7

Aus 1.28

Draw 75

 

Aus 168-3 .. Good knock by Warner, maybe some life in this game.

Eng 3.4

Aus 1.43

Draw 60

 

I left to go play cards, as didn't want to ruin my book, and Aus v tamely folded, to lose, almost embarrassingly.

You could feel for the coach, who is a new guy, and deserved to get at least one win.

The side does look short of runs .. And Eng got the game, from no-where, with the highlight, being the superb bowling of Broad, who took 11 wkts in the game.

Sometimes, he's v average, but, when he's good, he's v good.

Anderson looks a bit tired .. After having a great season.

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4th Ashes Test - Durham

Series score 2-0, following the rain draw at Manchester.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some rain probable, during the 5 days at Durham, but, given the Aus need to play aggressively, I think u have to be against the draw.

Pre-toss ..

England 2.14

Aus 3.85

Draw 3.85

England win toss and bat

After a very slow session, Eng finish at Lunch on 57-1

Eng 2.07

Aus 5.1

Draw 3.0

I am with England, at avg 2.20 .. Okish book.

 

Tea - 155-4

Eng 2.14

Aus 3.75

Draw 3.75

Ball starting to spin, so, have gone against draw.

 

Cue wkt .. 5 down

 

Eng grind themselves into a corner ..

Eng 199-8

 

Eng 2.74

Aus 1.98

Draw 7.6

 

Average its inns score here, in 5 1st class games this yr, all about 250, so, this score isn't desperate, but, 104-1, to this, it ain't.

England lost their mo-jo, but, have to lay Aus, sub 2.0.

 

So, COP ..

Eng 238-9, which maybe isn't so bad.

Eng 2.56

Aus 2.15

Draw 6.8

 

Interesting days play, and u get the impression the Eng batters find it hard to play against bowling which is naggingly accurate, and give away their wkts.

Maybe the bowlers, will come to the rescue again.

 

Day 2

Anderson gets hit on the head, and succumbs to a straight one, a few balls later.

Eng 238 all out.

Eng 2.72

Aus 2.02

Draw 7.0

 

Run line, is about 300 .. Think they will get more, and a 100 run lead, may well be the match.

 

Warner goes early, 12-1.

Eng 2.34

Aus 2.18 (1.91, pre)

Draw 8.0

 

Some volatile trading, as Aus lose 2 then 3 wkts, but Rogers steadies the ship, and after tea, Aus are 203-4.

Just 35 behind, and thou bad light may be an issue, rain is staying away.

Eng 4.9

Aus 1.74

Draw 4.6

 

Day 3

 

An early wkt, for England, with Aus 7 behind, 3 wkts left.

Eng 2.78

Aus 2.1

Draw 5.9

 

The draw price, is being held in place, by the light/rain, which may come later, but right now, it's sunshine.

 

Aus all out, with the last review, really funny, as the players accept it's out, and walk off, to leave the umpire to raise his finger (he got it wrong, again), to no- one.

Eng 2.26

Aus 2.68

Draw 5.3

 

Draw refuses to go away, with showers maybe tmrrw.

 

After lunch, Eng 48-2, 16 ahead.

 

Eng 2.26

Aus 2.38

Draw 7.6

 

No rain yet, and sunshine now.

Tea - Eng 123-3 91 runs ahead.

Some dark clouds about, but, they keep missing !!

Game really moved on, after lunch, with some quick wkts, but Bell and Pietersen has moved the game, firmly to England.

 

Eng 2.06

Aus 2.94

Draw 5.7

 

Have had some nice trades, and am an Draw lay, at 2.1 avg.

 

An hour or so left in the day, if light permits. The weather has been v tricky, with pixels fading away, and rain falling, for literally seconds.

Eng 176-4

 

Eng 1.95

Aus. 2.92

Draw 6.8

 

The test seems to be heading England's way, with a lead of 144, and it looks like 225, would be challenging.

 

COP Eng 234-5. Lead by 202

 

Eng 1.76

Aus 4.2

Draw 5.0

 

Sme thoughts, there will be some rain tomorrow, and might lose 40 overs.

I had one bad trade, which set me back quite a bit, but, have ok book.

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3rd Test - Ashes - England v Australia - Manchester

After the 2-0 appetisers, we get to the main course section, where people really start to get twitchy.

Careers are broken, and contracts can be on the line.

After the 2nd convincing win, some pre-game idiots, had England as short as 1.80.

I tucked into this, as saw v little downside, especially as it seems to always rain in Manchester.

A week to go, and they bet :

England 2.04 .. Australia 6.0Draw 2.94

This makes more sense .. And it somewhere near, I would have put it.

(I suppose its easy, being a smart-arse, after the event .. but, if u had laid Eng, in both Tests, at odds-on, u could easily have made money, thru trading).

 

 

 

 

 

 

The series score market, is an interesting diversion, if u have time to waste.

With England leading 2-0, there are many journos/commentators, who are thinking ahead, and trying to get to a 5-0 whitewash.

This was priced at 5.4, earlier in the week, but, now with some rain maybe expected during the Manchester test, has drifted to 6.2.

This is priced more accurately .. As, simple backing of England, for each game, gives 2.0 x 1.8 x 1.7 = 6.12 .. That's assuming my prices for the 4th and 5th test are somewhere near right ..

I have never felt England are really so far ahead of Australia .. But, have confidence, and a better team spirit .. However, backing odds on chances, in tests, has never been my cup of tea, and expect England to get unstuck somewhere, with Aus getting a draw - maybe at Manchester or Durham, which can also, be pretty wet.

 

 

So, the day has arrived, and weather forecasts have been all over the place.

Currently, thinking is day 1-3 look ok, but 4/5, look wet ..

Pre toss :

 

Eng 188

Aus 4.9

Draw 3.75

 

Aus win a good toss, and decide to bat.

 

Eng 1.94

Aus 4.4

Draw 3.8

 

No real position yet, and couldn't lay Eng at so big a price, just yet.

 

Drinks on Day 1, Aus 49-0

 

Eng 2.92

Aus 3.6

Draw 2.62

 

Seamers not really getting much help .. Pitch might be two-paced, Aus score of over 350 looks likely.

Am against Aus at about 4.0.

 

Aus lose the 1st, at 76 .. Watson, out to a good ball, from Bresnan.

 

Eng 2.7

Aus 3.7

Draw 2.74

 

Unreal DRS decision, sees Aus 2 down at lunch.

89-2 seems okish, but, they have failed from here before, and Swann will be v hard to play, later.

Eng 2.32

Aus 3.8

Draw 3.25

 

At the prices, I like Eng a lot. Aus seems to me, a v cheap lay.

 

Aus progress, but lose Rogers on 84, Aus 131-3

 

Eng 2.28

Aus 3.5

Draw 3.55

 

Tea - Aus 180-3

 

Eng 3.1

Aus 3.2

Draw 2.68

 

Hot sun, but maybe showers Sat and rain Monday.

 

Some more crap umpiring, and Aus progress to 303-3 at the close.

Over a Test series, there will be swings and roundabouts, but the standard of umpiring / DRS seems well below what you would expect.

Aus can maybe post 500, and try bowl Eng out. Its likely 30 overs + will be lost to bad weather, so, maybe the draw, is the most likely result, but, it's well in the price.

Eng 9.0

Aus 3.05

Draw 1.78

 

Am against the draw, and have a crap book.

 

Day 2

 

Some light rain in the morning, pre game, and draw crashed to 1.66, and, with an on-time start, and sun, plus runs for Aus, draw went further south, to 1.5x.

2 wkts, and it's back to 1.8x, volatile enough.

Lunch - 392-5

Eng 11

Aus 3.0

Draw 1.72

Have recovered book a bit, and pitch is proving it may well deteriorate quickly on day 4/5, .. Thou rain is forecast etc.

Still against Draw.

 

Aus declare, a few overs after tea .. 527-7

Eng 16

Aus 2.9

Draw 1.68

 

Quite an attacking dec from Clarke .. Would like to lay draw, in the 1.5x area.

Day 3 .. Weather for today, looks ok, but, MondY especially, looks worse.

After Lunch, Eng 148-4 .. Pietersen got a 50, and looking to take the game away from Aus, but, if they get him, the follow-on, looks decidedly possible.

Have worked away at my book, and now it's just against Eng, who I can't see winning.

Would like to back the Draw, but, no value, at 1.5x

Eng 36

Aus 3.05

Draw 1.54

Hope the draw goes much bigger, on wkts.

 

No wickets, and pretty poor session for Aus, with a DRS wicket, not taken, and poor new ball bowling.

Not totally convinced weather for Sunday is that bad, but, this is looking v drawing, with Eng only 110 away from avoiding follow on.

Tea - 211-4 , 315 behind.

Eng 20

Aus 6.6

Draw 1.24

 

Day 4 - Eng 303-7 .. Need 30 more, to avoid follow on, but, rain threatens to intervene, with a lot coming after lunch, and even more on Monday.

Pre play ..

Eng 28

Aus 5.5

Draw 1.26

..

Eng score runs quickly, and easily avoid the follow on.

337-7 .. 190 behind.

 

Eng 16

Aus 14

Draw 1.14 .. After having touched 1.11

 

Lunch Aus 24-1 .. Lead by 183

Eng 15

Aus 6.2

Draw 1.28

 

No rain yet, but likely to be some, in the next 90 mins .. Thou, heavy stuff, may miss to east.

Book is improving, laying 1.11 / 1.2x .. Which was a gamble, but still.

 

End day 4, and it's easy to heap some blame on the Umpires, for going off early, but, rain was coming later, and u could argue, Clarke should have declared earlier.

The whole series has been best with poor umpiring and DRS technology, and it should even itself out, but, it's easy to think, Aus have been hard done by.

Tomorrow will probably see only 60 overs of play, and a draw will no doubt result .. So, England retain the Ashes.

Congrats to them, but, it somehow feels v hollow.

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The Ashes - so far - Ramdom Thoughts

Pre series, I thought Aus would struggle to win a game, and almost wrote an article, on a new website, but, it never happened.

The 1st game, would have had me worried, but, the second, has reinforced my view, and, thou I still believe England are over-rated, just can't see a historically poor Aussie team, beating them.

The weather has been blissful so far, but, am hopeful the rains will come for Manchester, and we get some weather trading.

I like the way Cook leads England, and,thou by a few accounts, he needs some presentation / motivational speaking skills, to be enhanced, it's clear the team has a few characters, and a general good team spirit.

I suppose it's fairly easy to have this, when u are winning, but it's stil nice to see.

Ticket touts have been doing a great business, and was asked to pay £275 for a Day 1 ticket at Lords .. I didn't .

The grounds are doing far more to engage the public, which is great .. Someone is listening.

 

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The Ashes - 1st Test - Trent Bridge

And so it starts.

I think Darren Lehman will prove to be a good coach .. so long as Aus are playing well ..

Not sure, they have the team, to be all that competitive, despite the fact, I think Eng are a tad over-rated.

Price ,, pre- Day 1 - No weather issues .. should see full 5 days.

Eng 1.95

Aus 4.1

Draw 3.95

Traders expecting no draw, as pitch will deteriorate quickly, days 4/5.

Am playing golf, all of Day 1, so wont be doing much, but have left up some lays of the draw, below 3.0.

End Day 1 .. didn't watch much, but golf was fun.

Eng were 215 all-out, and Aus 75-4 in return.

Eng 1.76

Aus 2.76

Draw 17

Lunch Day 2 .. Aus fly, then fall, now flying again

Aus quickly scored 35 runs, and moved to almost favs, before losing a clutch of wkts, for a few runs, and at 117-9, 100 behind, they were in huge trouble, and Eng, 1.2x or so.

An unreal partnership, .. which is still going, now sees :

Eng 1.75

Aus 2.72

Draw 16

Broad is 95% a passenger .. but still think Aus will struggle to win .. pitch looks a belter now ..

Am against Aus, at good average.

End day 3, and have been dipping in and out, at various times.

Eng 260-6 net, on a wearing pitch, with some chance of rain, after tea on Day 4, but, time can be made up on Day 5, which looks clear.

Eng 1.33

Aus 5.6

Draw 13

Highest 4th inngs chase .. at Trent Bridge is 284 .. so, chasing even 260, will be tough.

Flat book, for now, but will lay draw, if it goes sub 10.

 

Interesting twists to the game, not least The Tie, traded at 11.0.

 

England are the better side. Not sure Aus will win a game.

 

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