Thursday, 9 February 2017

$400 Trillion buys u a lot

Reading Edward Thorp's new book ... 'A man for all markets', is a joy, as he knows his subject, like inside out, and relates it well, to the average reader.

Reading books, I often find cross-referencing .. and, sometimes, I can either agree, with what was written elsewhere, or pause.  (Especially, when the authors are now dead), there are disputes, as to the truth. For instance, Kerry Packer,('The rise and rise of Kerry Packer') was obviously an extremely wealthy man, who liked to gamble, gave huge tips, but, sometimes, did not pay his gambling debts. This I found odd. In Bill Waterhouses book, in 2009 'What are the odds', he gave his account, of a dispute with Kerry, and how he could have handled it better.

In just about all life, there are 3 sides to any story .. your version, his version, and the truth, which maybe in between.



In Edward Thorps book, he puts the value on the earth, at $400 trillion. I am sure he is right .. this man makes few mistakes, and Warren Buffet put the value of the world gold value, (in 2009), at $7 trillion, and the value of the US stock market, about $20 trillion. So, I can see, that the numbers make sense.

What doesnt make a great deal of sense to me .. is the prices for cricket hospitality in the UK.

Its looking like a v busy summer of cricket, and I am being inundated with offers .. last chance !! to buy hospitality, ranging from $340 to £500 for a days cricket.

The cheapest I have actually paid for a ticket (many places were free), is $0.25c, to watch an international match in Sri lanka, on the concrete steps. Sure, its uncomfortable .. but, u get what u pay for. At £400 for a ticket, u would have to drink, an awful lot, to realise anything like value, and your body, may take offence.

I hope people stay away .. but, fear, they will not.

Thursday, 2 February 2017

Time resource and Social Media

Listening to an Alec Torelli (poker player), Youtube, talking about currencies of a Poker Player, and how he rates Money/Time/Mobility/Influence.

Having been up all night, trading a Completed Match Market, which, ended NO .. game was abandoned without a ball bowled, I was struck by a few chords.



Over the last 2 days, I lost money, following an Apple short. It wasnt much money, and, sensibly, I cut the position, once the immediate results were out, as, I would have lost a bit more.

During the CMM, twitter can be alive and slow. I follow a few people, a few people follow me. In the olden days, if I posted a picture of weather conditions, it would move the market .. so, I stopped.

The game above, was supposed to be 50 overs a side, but, it can be reduced to 20 overs a side, so, the 8 hrs allotted, can be cut, to about 2 hrs. After 4 hrs of waiting, the CMM, has traded from a v heavy favourite, of Yes, there would be a game, to No, being a heavy fav, at about 1.30.

It was 6pm local time, and a final inspection had been called for 6.30pm. Nothing can be done - match wise, till they have the final inspection.

One of my twitter .. lets call him Marty - posted 'Game Abandoned - more to follow'.

Almost instantly, £20k appeared wanting to back No game, at 1.01. Even sleep deprived (this was in the wee hrs), I had to lay my share, and took profits, when people realised, this was a pretty big mistake, by someone.

The game was finally called off, 45 mins later ..

The point I am trying to make .. is that, my using Time, to look at Social Media, is both good and bad. Its a balance. You will win some, lose some. Maybe refinement of the followers, and heavy diltuion of what some people say, is part of the process, to what it takes to win .. but, thats the game.

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

Apple Update - Lost again ..

The YOLO (You only live once) .. am I the only one, who has to google what these newer acronyms mean ?, wasnt a spectacular fail, but, a fail never the less.




The live results conference call, was hosted on Youtube, by our friend the Wolf .. who appears to have a  Canadian accent, and gathered 14k viewers.

It was almost certainly a demo account .. If he was getting a kick-back, from spread companies, who make money, on the bid/ask spread, I would be impressed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ilpE7caEXU

In researching this short, there are other funny videos on youtube .. from -- supposed ex-employees, making fun at the design of Apple products. It does make sense, but, maybe, with the fires from rival competitors, now, was not the best time to short. Ipad sales are off .. and likely to stay low .. maybe next time :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrpsA98DhCI

Monday, 30 January 2017

Apple earnings .. Turning $2.5 into dust ..

In a different life, I have done my absolutes, shorting this (which was dumb, but, was a re-active condition, after massive poor service).

Apple is due to report earning, tomorrow.



This is an interesting read, about someone, left $2.5m, has lost $2.15m of it, and is now, shorting the stock, hoping to get even.

I would love him to be right :

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/5qhzcy/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Basin Reserve (Wellington) - off my Xmas card list

When someone asks me, which is my favourite cricket ground/racecourse, I normally answer, based on past betting highlights. Oddly, both Taunton cricket ground and racecourse, have been good to me .. I dislike v few (obviously, Edgbaston is right up there), but, starting to get some traction, is the Basin Reserve, in Wellington.

I have some history, with this ground. 4 yrs ago, (it seems like a lifetime), I was watching S.Africa play N.Zealand at this ground, and, pretty much as usual, it was raining. It was the 4th day, of a 5 day test. I was happy to see it rain, I had backed the draw v heavily, and it was all good. It was banging down, an hr before the game was due to start - which was impossible, given the rain/state of the ground, but, I had a ticket etc, and .. with a good book, was happy to sit in the stand, and watch the ducks play.

It took some time to get into my alloted seat .. the section i was in, had been padlocked, and .. no-one had the key, as they didnt expect customers etc .. but, I finally got in. As it happened, my seat was quite close to the umpires locker room, and they saw me reading my book, as they ventured out, to look at the pitch. After 2-3 inspections, an umpire maybe thought I had better things to do, and said, I could probably go home in an hr, as they were likely to call the game off, for the day. This was cool .. I backed the draw some more ..

As the umpire disappeared into the changing room, the rain stopped, the sun came out, and literally, they were playing, 45 mins later. Luckily, I was able to salvage my book, but, Wellington, got a black mark.

Fast forward 4 yrs.

The N.Zealand / Bangladesh test, looks a certain draw, especially, as its raining v heavily on day 4.

Players havent left the hotels - radio stations, asking local residents, to a man, say, no play before lunch .. and once again, I back the draw.

Once again, the sun comes out, the rain misses the ground, and players were 5 mins late, starting - with little warm-ups, they were so-caught out.

This time, I couldnt recover my book, and lost, pretty heavily.

Not a great start to the year -- I did little wrong, but, paid the price, of listening to 'Joe Public'.


Saturday, 17 December 2016

And so this is Christmas ..

Almost there .. but, not likely to see any snow, where I live.

Gonna share the day, on a dam, with family (like 30 people), and just veg.

Starting to look back at the yr, and what, if anything I achieved.



1. Played a lot more golf .. this was good and bad .. the crowd I play with, are elderly, and a few pop-off every now and again. The troubling thing, is that when I play with them, they seem fine .. and develop cancer, a few weeks/mths later, and seem to not last more than 6 mths.

Its a sick disease - and u really just gotta give thanks, when u wake up in the morning.

Best round of the yr .. a 83 .. and I def have the potential to go lower - especially if I put some work in at the gym. Been playing squash with the kids, and I have a few mths, before they beat me into the ground, so .. am enjoying it.

2. Watched a deal of cricket .. and the markets / technology are changing. U have to keep moving, to stay ahead, and try and pay the bills ..

3. Really enjoying some Vlogs .. I must give a shout-out to this one .. its about 20 Vlogs in .. and its v decent : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLTP4Ns4v8EsVS0DVGugQrQ

4. Spent 7 weeks in the USA, and looking forward to returning, next yr .. hopeful we can mix in some sports betting, and even more hopeful, more states legalise it, within 2 yrs.

Thanks for all the postive messages .. am short various financial indexes, and long dollar. Expect the worst !!

Anyway .. basically, more of the same .. hope u all have a peaceful time over the festive season.

Monday, 12 December 2016

Cricket in India ...

I was watching some poker Vlogs, and youtube suddenly suggested a few new videos.

From a link, I found http://www.betfaircrickettips.com/ , which on the website, is ingeniously changed to Befaircrickettips.com, so, they don't get grief from the exchange.



For an explanation, of what some of the terms on the website mean, here is another video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLEoU89xW2k

Its interesting stuff, and u can see why India sends so many callers to grounds, relaying ball by ball info.

Its a massive market. I was exposed to Indian Bookies, maybe 10 years ago, and watched one setting the 'rate' .. it was rhythmical .. like the beat of a drum, how the quote would go 34-36, 34-36, 35-37 ...

The bet size, was enormous // not like the 2 bit online bookies  - which leads me to a pet grief, how S.African bookies, can quote .. for tomorrows T20 match : 70c Warriors - 101c Lions ..

For a start, Lions beat them in Durban .. leaving aside the theft of the pricing ...