Friday, 26 August 2016

The price of patience

Advantage gamblers need many disciplines .. one of which, is definitely self-control.

Self-control can form the realm of discipline of ones bank-roll, the avoidance of tilt .. and, in the general way, u go about helping others.

Writing a blog .. u get many novice gamblers, who ask 'stupid' questions. Stupid is probably wrong .. lets say, basic questions - They should have researched, and gone about trying to use my time, by asking a better question.

I am tired .. as is Bob Dancer .. if u dont know, do some google searches .. and have had enough of just plain giving.

Its taken me 15 yrs to learn these skills .. I refuse to donate them, any longer.

Thursday, 25 August 2016

Book results, and a few other things

Finished listening to Mike Sextons, Lifes a gamble.. and, its a decent way to spend a few hrs.

He had the good fortune, to have some great associates, during his early years in Vegas, and, being hard-working and trustworthy, seems to have enjoyed the ride. We all have leaks, and, am pretty sure he regrets being so addicted to sports betting . but, hey, no ones perfect.

I am really uncomfortable, by the way the new Paddy Power/Betfair merger, has further sidelined the exchange. In the latest results, sportsbook revenue grew by 20%, exchange by 3%. Its hard to be positive, if u are an exchange player .. and, am looking for other avenues.

https://www.paddypowerbetfair.com/~/media/Files/P/Paddy-Power-Betfair/documents/interim-results-2016-presentation.pdf

Manual traders, seem to me, to have the worst of it, on the exchanges .. especially as there is no differentiation in Premium Charge, between manual users, and those that have automated strategies.

I have looked at a few more betting tools, and BFBotmanager, is interesting. The software interface still needs work, but, they have a v interesting tipster site, from where people can buy strategies, to load into the software, from winning tipsters. This is a decent idea, and have started a tipping account.

My free dissemination of info on twitter, will be reduced dramatically .. like 95% .. there is no point, giving freeloaders info .. no-one pays, and, am tired of the overhead.


Tuesday, 16 August 2016

Some books to have a look at ..

I have always respected Mike Sexton - poker ambassador, and a big-cheese at Party Poker.

He tells his story, in - Lifes a Gamble .. and, it has some amazing stories.



Hes been in action his whole life .. but, it shows, just how much u can make, when u get it right, in stock market ventures.

His shares in Party Gaming, would have been worth $500 million, .. if he had not sold, 6 mths before, launch - for $15 million. The other partners gave him another $15 million, when they cashed in .. and $30m .. is not chump change, .. but, even so.

Have just bought - Tales from the Pit .. and will try read in the next day or so ..

The final book .. below, is one I have heard discussed many times, and, am sure its v useful, for USA based gamblers. Will add to my reading pile ..







Sunday, 14 August 2016

Traffic cones

I have often wondered, whats it like to go to a cricket match, in fancy dress . and, if I went, what would I go as ?

England has a merry assortment of characters, who like to dress up, and u see a motley selection of random individuals.

My favourites, are cookie monsters, sylvester, minions, bananas .. but of late, a growing trend, has been that of traffic cones .. to mimic, the sheer vastness of them, on every highway.



Its not much of a statement .. which is the way the British tend to do things .. understated ..

In the 2 months since the Brexit vote, the currency has devalued by over 15%, subsidies from the EU have been put on hold, valuable jobs, in the research arena, have been given to other countries, despite England having some of the best candidates.

I am no longer, so sure, Brexit will be a net positive for England .. and feel it will drag out .. a really long time.






Monday, 18 July 2016

2nd Test - England v Pakistan - Manchester (where it always rains)

So, we got the money, in round 1.

Pakistan deserved to win, but, if Stokes/Anderson come back, I think Eng are v decent favs, and would have to lay the 4.0 Pak.

Weather seems unsettled .. might get some disruptions .. one to watch.

4 days out :

Eng 2.02

Pak 4.1

Draw 3.85

(I am on the draw .. for now)

///

Eve of test .. weather picture got better, and am looking at a red book .. wont be the first time, I have gone into a test like that, and wont be the last .. will handle it.

Money for Eng ..

Eng 1.88

Pak 3.85

Draw 4.7

My net position s effectively laying Pak at 5.0, draw no bet .. not great, but, not the worst.

Will update the blog when I feel like it .. no one ever gives me a dime, so, its just for my own amusement anyway.

///

End Day 1 :

Eng used a v good toss, pretty well, and for me, Pak already all but, cant win.


Eng 1.43

Pak 18

Draw 4.0

Weather forecast for Sunday decidely iffy .. a little surprised draw is not trading a little shorter, especially given how pitch has played. U can def argue, Anderson/Broad will be good enuf, and thats a decent argument - but, have the draw, well on-side.

Current Book :

Eng +7 units

Pak  -12 units

Draw +24 units

I traded the day well .. someone kept offering 5.0+ Draw .. thats the sort of offer, I find hard to resist.

COP Day 3 .. Eng 490 ahead, batting again (which social media went crazy about .. which is the sort of thing it does).

Eng 1.1 chances, which is probably generous. I think Cook declares with maybe 50 more .. and they win pretty easy .. weather doesnt seem so bad.

I have flat/losing book .. but, I can live with it. (Going for Pak to trade sub 50, and against draw).


Saturday, 16 July 2016

1st Test - England v Pakistan - Lords

Pre-game lays of England, looked at times, +Ev, and -Ev, and at times, it was the sort of 1st 2 days, where u could just leave up reverse trades, and leave them.

Anyway, after 2 days, of mkt love for England, the mkt may have to rethink.

Eng currently 86 behind in 1st dig .. 3 wkts left.

Eng 1.96

Pak 2.68

Draw 8.2

Eng against spin, seem unsure (lets put it kindly), but, Pak will always battle to score runs, given their long tail .. so, the test seems well poised.

Interesting 1st session, Day 3 .. if Eng get skittled quick .. Pak will be favs ??

Not sure how the mkt will stomach this .. and, with current prices, slightly prefer being with England - thou, no doubt, the mkt will jump on the England tail wkts.

/////

End day 3 --- Pak 281-8 net .. and mkt has both sides 2.02, give or take. (( Both sides have been favs, multiple times))

Mk love back for England, and could easily see new ball/early wkts/20-0 England, touch 1.6x .. but, given spin/wearing pitch, feel its the sort of lay, u should leave, and take the dog for a walk .. it will be too painful to watch.

I am surprised Pak are not decent favs, and have a position with them .. which, I expect to increase, as the bat-shit crazy prices evolve.

Lets hope ..

Saturday, 9 July 2016

Gambling with an Edge - Website

The podcast finally has a home on the web, where many, many valuable interviews and references are listed.

If u are involved with gambling for a living, u need to see this :

Gamblingwithanedge.com