Thursday, 4 February 2016

Juggling the Planets

Its been an odd period of time.

Over the last 2 weeks, I have never been so out of kilter, with the market. I dont understand. They are wrong, I am right .. but, no-one understands.

Really fucking weird .. maybe its me, but, my results say otherwise .. hey-ho.

This weekend is Superbowl 50, and listening to many of the NFL podcasts, there are some sports books with a menu of up to 400 prop bets.

The Westgate casino/Sportsbook, went up with 200 or so props, last Thursday. the line of 30 punters, were allowed 2 bets each, before, going to the back of the line .. (the odds for there picks, normally shortened).



Historically, props are great business for the books. The squares, take the over on everything .. wanting to see action, and the sharps take the under, laying the heavy juice, knowing they have the best of it.

In the last 49 superbowls, the game has not gone to overtime. This time, its priced at 1.08 or so. Not a great price .. maybe, but, for bridge-jumpers, good enough.

I miss the US at superbowl time .. even thou, watching in Vegas, would be madness.

Carolina Panthers are 5.5 points fav, and about 1.47, on the moneyline. They were 40/1 at the start of the season .. some people have some nice ante-post wagers. I am with them, but, not at fancy prices.




Tuesday, 19 January 2016

Ram-Slam - Match Fixing - Mega Deep SIgh

I watched a lot of last yrs Ram-slam .. and thou a few games had many twists and turns, I never really thought it was 'dodgy' - rather thinking, the players were of such poor quality (overall), that, sport evolved naturally.

Its disturbing, to see this article :

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jan/19/thami-tsolekile-south-africa-cricket-match-fixing-ram-slam

The amounts involved are 'trivial' - but, maybe this isnt the full story - I hope its not true.

It must be a major blow to Cricket South Africa - doubly so, that the accused, are from the minority groups, they are trying to promote.



On a different tack, but also a bit sad to see :

Aaron Pangiso, alledgedly, barred from a flight, for being intoxocated :


Monday, 18 January 2016

The tennis racket

Its not a sport I enjoy/watch/or bet on, but, am aware, its a massive market for betting, and, is thus a target for match-fixers.

As a rule, the authorities do less than fuck-all, save for a little cosmetic justice.

This expose, shows just how lax, the Tennis authorities are :

http://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/the-tennis-racket#.wjP8wxAJd



Sunday, 17 January 2016

Betfair pre-off Volume

On the Bet Angel forum .. which is excellent, there is a thread about how Betfair volume on the exchange, has decreased significantly :

Since 2012 pre off turnover has fallen from £19.5bn to £16.9bn

Comparisons on individual sports, top ten sports by turnover (pre off) : -

Horse Racing -4% - £10.31bn vs. £9.88bn 
Soccer -27% - £5.73bn vs. £4.16bn 
Tennis -31% - £1.36bn vs. £0.94bn 
Greyhound Racing -10% - £0.72bn vs. £0.65bn 
Cricket +57% - £0.37bn vs. £0.58bn 
Basketball -48% - £0.22bn vs. £0.11bn 
American Football -2% - £0.1bn vs. £0.09bn 
Golf -14% - £0.09bn vs. £0.08bn 
Australian Rules -39% - £0.07bn vs. £0.04bn


Its interesting. that cricket is the only sport, to have increased, and increased significantly - thou, the actual volume number, is quite low, in relation to other sports.

I have no idea why the Betfair share price nudges £40 .. to me, its a fucking mystery.




Maybe, becos in-play volumes have risen, at least, for some sports.

Soccer -13% - £13.73bn vs. £11.98bn 
Tennis -7% - £9.94bn vs. £9.24bn 
Cricket 73% - £5.17bn vs. £8.95bn 
Horse Racing -5% - £2.63bn vs. £2.49bn 
Basketball -16% - £0.7bn vs. £0.59bn 
Golf -1% - £0.25bn vs. £0.25bn 
Darts -11% - £0.17bn vs. £0.15bn 
Snooker -25% - £0.17bn vs. £0.13bn 
American Football -8% - £0.15bn vs. £0.14bn



Truth is like poetry

Saw the movie, 'The Big Short' last night, based on the book by Michael Lewis.

The book is better, as is the general rule, but, it passed some time, and its a solid 8/10.



There was an amusing quote during the movie :

Truth is like Poetry :

Most people fucking hate poetry.

I feel my twitter feed and this blog, is pretty much like that.

S.Africa cricket team, is well fucked. If u cant see it, and u are a trader, u need new glasses.

Tuesday, 12 January 2016

3rd Test - S.Africa v England - Wanderers

England lead the 4 match series, 1-0, after the // trying to think of the right word // , for a Test, which saw Ben Stokes score a double hundred, in super quick time, and Amla / Bavuma also creating headlines.

Lost in the plot, were a Test debut for Morris, which saw him both, at the best of times/worst of times.

Anyway ..

Onto one of my favourite Test grounds .. The Wanderers .. not least, cos its v possible to get later afternoon Thunderstorms there :

Current weather forecast :





Current betting :

SA 2.88 .. Steyn out .. been as low as 2..4

Eng 3.3

Draw 2.96


I have a big position, for one of the teams, and against Draw.

Remember being at the fixture, 6 yrs ago .. (how time flies), and Morkel/Steyn had Eng in all sorts of bother, and S.Africa won by a distance. That was 2010 ..

Nov 1999, Donald/Pollock had England 4-2 .. and Eng 122 All-out. S.Africa won by a distance.

Jan 2005, Eng .. a game I remember v well, Eng scored 411 1st dig, and S.Africa got 417. After Eng scored another 332 before declaring .. people thght it would be a draw, but Hoggard got some key wkts late, in the gloom, and Eng got up to win.



Wanderers is a result wkt .. Draw backers, need a lot of wet stuff.


///

Result .. Game over in 3 days ..

All 3 options, traded sub 2.3 ..

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Another one left without me ...

I missed my flight .. Which isn't a new thing, but, it's only Jan 6, and the year is young.

Last year, I missed 21 flights .. Including one which I had somehow double-booked myself on .. Not my finest hour.

I say 21, it might easily have been 41, I sorta stop counting, like a gambler stops acknowledging losing poker sessions, preferring to let them slide.

I can't deny, this is a major leak ..



As this is confession time, I also missed about 30 pre-booked, non-changeable trains, which, oddly, I find more irritating than the planes .. 

I paid 3 accident excesses, on hired cars, and had to rip-up about £100, to a car owner, who I had backed into, and wanted to go to the police .. (The Ckt game started in 45 mins, and that wasn't going to happen)... (The scratch was minuscule .. I got severely fucked-over)

My new house build, over-ran by about 12 mths, and £50k .. If I am lucky, I also stop counting on this one - it got too depressing.

There is a pattern here .. 

Having said all the above, last yr was fantastic .. Not least, cos I shot regular sub 90's ... Nothing else really matters.

This yr, I will try miss only 10 planes, 10 trains, flatten 1 excess.

If I make only 1 out of 3, and shoot a 85 or better somewhere, I will be estatic.