Monday, 24 October 2016

Quite a bit to catch up on ..

It never ends.

Readers/experienced Advantage Gamblers will remember the Phil Ivey exploits of the last 2 yrs, and we have just had the judgement from the Borgata case. Its a complex judgement, which may have ramifications for other gamblers, but, basically, Ivey was not guilty of committing a fraud, but, did breach his contract with the casino, and now probably owes the $10m (which they paid him).

Maybe Ivey will pay, maybe he goes insolvent, maybe he appeals.

On the Uk front, the Competition and Marketing Authority, is looking at potential breaches in consumer law, by the gambling industry. Bookmakers have some v bad press (for good reason), and I hope some reforms are made. It would be nice, if they also take a look at exchanges, abusing their dominant power.

I had some correspondence re cheating machines, and the ability to stack a deck, so, the dealer wins, (wherever u cut it) .. which I found amazing.

Be careful out there ..

Friday, 21 October 2016

Bad timing or what ?

So, have been binge watching 'Narcos' .. a series largely about Pablo Escobar .. some 18 or so episodes in, and am half-way thru, an episode called 'Exit El-Patron' .. from which I surmise he gets his just deserts, when Netflix appears to have been hit, by a DDOS attack.

A trifle frustrating .. but, allows me to wander off on another tangent.

One of the recent podcasts I listened to, was about super chickens :

Its an interesting idea, that, for corporations to excel, u need collaboration.

It occurred to me, there is little collaboration between pro-gamblers .. unless they are part of a syndicate, and, maybe its a deficiency.

Sharing expertise is hard to quantify -- u don't know the value of a spreadsheet, or 15 yrs trading experience, but, its probably something that should be explored.

Quite how u do it, is another problem.

Monday, 10 October 2016

Digging deeper ...

As Advantage gamblers, we need to question things, and ask the next question.

This can be tiring, as there are fewer resources u can trust, and fewer knowledgeable people, willing to share info .. but, still, it needs to be done.

A while ago, my local casino, banned the use of cell-phones, from the poker table. I thought they were just being miserable, as they already had policies of no food at table, no free drinks, and were in the throws of putting in policies, which would lead to the room closing, organically.

Last yr, it became public knowledge, that it was possible to 'edge-sort' playing cards, and skilled professionals, could recognise a cards value, from the careful observation of the back of the card.

I just came across a video, where a hacked android phone, could observe the sides of a randomly shuffled deck, and accurately predict the top 2 cards of the deck.

The presenter has an irritating french-Canadian accent, but, if u can get past it, the power of the program being sold, was pretty impressive. (Basically, it uses the phones in-built camera, to match previous pictures, of the edge of the deck. - Ok, so, u need to get hold of the deck .. but, for home games etc, this would be trivial)

Asking the next question .. if it can spot a card, from the top of a deck, there is no reason it couldn't reveal the ranking, of any casino game, where the hold-card is dealt face down (to the dealer).

There are quite a few casino games like this .. I wonder how much, they have got away with. $3000 or so, would be a fairly cheap investment .. if, u couldnt prep your own phone.

Monday, 3 October 2016

How Much ??

Ok, So, I do a fair amount of travelling, and sometimes get the munchies.

Airports are never the cheapest places to get supplies .. but, it gives u opportunities to test your personal EV levels.

I walked into a sweet emporium (Non Uk), and found these ..

Ok, So we Know they have a retail price of £1 in the Uk .. what can they reasonably cost ?

Local equivalent, of maybe £1.50 would be reasonable .. £4.35, is probably not.

I asked to see the owner, and debated how his pricing mechanism worked .. and ( where were the police ?)

He didnt see my humour .. but after holding up .. maybe 4 people in the line, paid the money - which I instantly regretted.

If .. as pro-gamblers, we havent got reasonable expected returns .. it will all fall apart. This, was a clear pass, and I failed the test .. which, is a wake-up call.

As it happens .. I have been on a fair run. the tipping verification site, now has me down as 11 from 14 winning tips .. a 78% strike-rate.

It will need to continue .. if I am willing to pay 4x, for other shit.

Saturday, 17 September 2016

An Apple a day ..

The Gambling Commission has appointed a new Chairman :

Bill Moyes, who has been heavily criticised in his role as Chairman of the Dental Council.

Quite what, Teeth, and Gambling have in common, I am not sure .. but, maybe, we shall see the GC take a bite out of the Bookies.

Hes got the gig for 5 yrs .. 55k a yr ..

Betting Podcasts

As regular subscribers of this podcast will know, I like Podcasts.

A new one has come on the horizon : which shows a decent amount of ingenuity from Matchbook, which, is a site, I am gaining a degree of respect for.

I am fairly active on some of the Matchbook markets .. it will be interesting to see if they dissect some of my trades ..

Anyway, new content is always welcome .. especially if its well produced, and has decent participants.

I wish them well.

Friday, 16 September 2016

Wacky Races

Its been a hell of a week.

They say a week is a longtime in Politics, and I can see why.

Clinton once looked clear, and only had to jump the final fence, but, now, the exchange markets, have drifted her from 1.45 - maybe 2 weeks ago, to 1.65 or so, on the back of coughing/collapsing, and Trumps' marketing savvy.

Lets be clear, I think Clinton is a v weak candidate - has little personal appeal, and clearly has issues with the truth .. but, Trump, says things, which just make no sense, and are both politically naive, and incorrect.

Trump is presently available to lay . in as much size as most would want, at 2.94. Clinton is 1.62.

The markets are a traders dream .. and if u have a view, and want to market-make .. u can make a decent book. (That is .. if u live outside the US .. u cant bet on politics in the land-of-the-free).

A v respected website, which has called the last few US elections, almost perfectly .. , makes Clinton / Trump 60:40.

That makes Clinton 1.6x .. which equates to the betting markets, but, I feel there is a disconnect.

I have heard stories, that it costs relatively little, for campaign managers to pump money into betting markets, distorting things. Its more natural, to expect it to happen, closer to the race .. but, $25m traded on Betfair .. is peanuts  .. considering presidential elections cost, literally billions. (2012 cost $2 billion, and this yrs, is expected to cost $5billion)

Conspiracy ?

Who knows ? All I know .. is that I have waited all yr, to Lay Trump. At sub 3.0, I have had to get involved.

For those who want to listen to excellent political podcasts, take your pick .. its a big market: