Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Basin Reserve (Wellington) - off my Xmas card list

When someone asks me, which is my favourite cricket ground/racecourse, I normally answer, based on past betting highlights. Oddly, both Taunton cricket ground and racecourse, have been good to me .. I dislike v few (obviously, Edgbaston is right up there), but, starting to get some traction, is the Basin Reserve, in Wellington.

I have some history, with this ground. 4 yrs ago, (it seems like a lifetime), I was watching S.Africa play N.Zealand at this ground, and, pretty much as usual, it was raining. It was the 4th day, of a 5 day test. I was happy to see it rain, I had backed the draw v heavily, and it was all good. It was banging down, an hr before the game was due to start - which was impossible, given the rain/state of the ground, but, I had a ticket etc, and .. with a good book, was happy to sit in the stand, and watch the ducks play.

It took some time to get into my alloted seat .. the section i was in, had been padlocked, and .. no-one had the key, as they didnt expect customers etc .. but, I finally got in. As it happened, my seat was quite close to the umpires locker room, and they saw me reading my book, as they ventured out, to look at the pitch. After 2-3 inspections, an umpire maybe thought I had better things to do, and said, I could probably go home in an hr, as they were likely to call the game off, for the day. This was cool .. I backed the draw some more ..

As the umpire disappeared into the changing room, the rain stopped, the sun came out, and literally, they were playing, 45 mins later. Luckily, I was able to salvage my book, but, Wellington, got a black mark.

Fast forward 4 yrs.

The N.Zealand / Bangladesh test, looks a certain draw, especially, as its raining v heavily on day 4.

Players havent left the hotels - radio stations, asking local residents, to a man, say, no play before lunch .. and once again, I back the draw.

Once again, the sun comes out, the rain misses the ground, and players were 5 mins late, starting - with little warm-ups, they were so-caught out.

This time, I couldnt recover my book, and lost, pretty heavily.

Not a great start to the year -- I did little wrong, but, paid the price, of listening to 'Joe Public'.


Saturday, 17 December 2016

And so this is Christmas ..

Almost there .. but, not likely to see any snow, where I live.

Gonna share the day, on a dam, with family (like 30 people), and just veg.

Starting to look back at the yr, and what, if anything I achieved.



1. Played a lot more golf .. this was good and bad .. the crowd I play with, are elderly, and a few pop-off every now and again. The troubling thing, is that when I play with them, they seem fine .. and develop cancer, a few weeks/mths later, and seem to not last more than 6 mths.

Its a sick disease - and u really just gotta give thanks, when u wake up in the morning.

Best round of the yr .. a 83 .. and I def have the potential to go lower - especially if I put some work in at the gym. Been playing squash with the kids, and I have a few mths, before they beat me into the ground, so .. am enjoying it.

2. Watched a deal of cricket .. and the markets / technology are changing. U have to keep moving, to stay ahead, and try and pay the bills ..

3. Really enjoying some Vlogs .. I must give a shout-out to this one .. its about 20 Vlogs in .. and its v decent : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLTP4Ns4v8EsVS0DVGugQrQ

4. Spent 7 weeks in the USA, and looking forward to returning, next yr .. hopeful we can mix in some sports betting, and even more hopeful, more states legalise it, within 2 yrs.

Thanks for all the postive messages .. am short various financial indexes, and long dollar. Expect the worst !!

Anyway .. basically, more of the same .. hope u all have a peaceful time over the festive season.

Monday, 12 December 2016

Cricket in India ...

I was watching some poker Vlogs, and youtube suddenly suggested a few new videos.

From a link, I found http://www.betfaircrickettips.com/ , which on the website, is ingeniously changed to Befaircrickettips.com, so, they don't get grief from the exchange.



For an explanation, of what some of the terms on the website mean, here is another video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLEoU89xW2k

Its interesting stuff, and u can see why India sends so many callers to grounds, relaying ball by ball info.

Its a massive market. I was exposed to Indian Bookies, maybe 10 years ago, and watched one setting the 'rate' .. it was rhythmical .. like the beat of a drum, how the quote would go 34-36, 34-36, 35-37 ...

The bet size, was enormous // not like the 2 bit online bookies  - which leads me to a pet grief, how S.African bookies, can quote .. for tomorrows T20 match : 70c Warriors - 101c Lions ..

For a start, Lions beat them in Durban .. leaving aside the theft of the pricing ...



Win-rates of poker v exchange players

I have been viewing a lot of Vlogs (Video logs), put out by 'successful' poker players, who want to maybe create a second income stream.

This is a good idea .. it doesn't take too long, and the video editing process, has gotten a lot easier.



One day, I might consider doing a Vlog, but, its maybe premature.

One of the videos, took a decent look at win-rate, of what a pro poker player, (in Vegas), might make.

Vegas is a cheap place to live - games run 24/7, and has the good/bad features, of a gambling mecca.

A medium pro, might look to win 10 Big Blinds per hour, after maybe 3 mths of study. For No Limit Hold-em, the games are typically, $1/2 .. so, the small blind is $1, the Big Blind $2. If u play 40 hours a week, you might make $800 a week, $3200 a mth.

That's for an accomplished pro .. so, maybe 7 BB is more realistic .. which equates to $560 a week, or $2240 a mth. Its ok, etc, but, with expenses .. we haven't really discussed if the pro has a family etc, its not really enough.

The games do run higher .. $2/$5, or $5/$10 are available .. and the skill level to beat 2/5, isn't that much higher then 1/2, but, the bankroll needed to sustain yourself, during the inevitable downswings, is much bigger.

Anyway, I was thinking, of the return, an exchange player, can make per hour.

Its obviously less well documented. A few blogs will post P/L cols for the day, but, what u really want to see, is the Premium Charge statement .. which gives weekly P/L, and cumulative numbers.

If a trader sits at his desk, and churns out 40 hours .. whats his expected return ? For me, a 7 hr test day .. using  a bank of £10k, I would like to think £200-£400 a day is expected return. If I traded horse-racing, it would be considerably less. How many BB / Hr does that equate to ?

Say £50 an hr .. is not so far away, from the $50/hr, a $2/$5 pro would expect to make, especially if the exchange trader then has to pay PC.

The lives are roughly similar .. sedentary jobs, 'achieving' nothing, but accumulating cash. Its possible the exchange trader could automate some of his stuff .. but, this is easier said than done .. I am getting v suspicious of the automated programs, which try to make u believe, 'any one can do it' - I certainly cant - and I have really tried.


Saturday, 19 November 2016

Struggle Street - (fully parked in)

Thanks for the encouraging messages ..

Not much has changed, if anything, it has got worse, with the S.African cricket authorities, deciding, no courtsiders will be allowed in stadia. Only 4 odd games have gone by, since the ruling (probably brought about, as they lost key sponsor of domestic T20, maybe becos of a number of players, being involved in match fixing).



On top of this, the Indian government outlawed high value banknotes, which meant the local bookies had some liquidity problems, (which I am sure they will get around), but, for now, liquidity on a lot of games, has been affected (downwards).

For now, its a waiting game, and am using the time to do chill a bit, and look at my big reds on the financials. Its not a pleasant start to the day.

//  Footnote //

Was composing this post, whilst watching the Zim v Windies ODI, in which, I had a decent Red.

Game ended in a Tie (all bets void), .. maybe, things are turning.

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Trump .. at least it will make a good BBC radio comedy.

Done my absolutes on Trump, and am v depressed.



Lost a mid-6 figs on the actual market, and am losing considerably greater amount, on the financials.

Gonna look for a new job.

Monday, 24 October 2016

Quite a bit to catch up on ..

It never ends.

Readers/experienced Advantage Gamblers will remember the Phil Ivey exploits of the last 2 yrs, and we have just had the judgement from the Borgata case. Its a complex judgement, which may have ramifications for other gamblers, but, basically, Ivey was not guilty of committing a fraud, but, did breach his contract with the casino, and now probably owes the $10m (which they paid him).



Maybe Ivey will pay, maybe he goes insolvent, maybe he appeals.

On the Uk front, the Competition and Marketing Authority, is looking at potential breaches in consumer law, by the gambling industry. Bookmakers have some v bad press (for good reason), and I hope some reforms are made. It would be nice, if they also take a look at exchanges, abusing their dominant power.

https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/online-gambling

I had some correspondence re cheating machines, and the ability to stack a deck, so, the dealer wins, (wherever u cut it) .. which I found amazing.

https://www.benjoffe.com/holdem

Be careful out there ..