Monday, 18 July 2016

2nd Test - England v Pakistan - Manchester (where it always rains)

So, we got the money, in round 1.

Pakistan deserved to win, but, if Stokes/Anderson come back, I think Eng are v decent favs, and would have to lay the 4.0 Pak.

Weather seems unsettled .. might get some disruptions .. one to watch.

4 days out :

Eng 2.02

Pak 4.1

Draw 3.85

(I am on the draw .. for now)

///

Eve of test .. weather picture got better, and am looking at a red book .. wont be the first time, I have gone into a test like that, and wont be the last .. will handle it.

Money for Eng ..

Eng 1.88

Pak 3.85

Draw 4.7

My net position s effectively laying Pak at 5.0, draw no bet .. not great, but, not the worst.

Will update the blog when I feel like it .. no one ever gives me a dime, so, its just for my own amusement anyway.

///

End Day 1 :

Eng used a v good toss, pretty well, and for me, Pak already all but, cant win.


Eng 1.43

Pak 18

Draw 4.0

Weather forecast for Sunday decidely iffy .. a little surprised draw is not trading a little shorter, especially given how pitch has played. U can def argue, Anderson/Broad will be good enuf, and thats a decent argument - but, have the draw, well on-side.

Current Book :

Eng +7 units

Pak  -12 units

Draw +24 units

I traded the day well .. someone kept offering 5.0+ Draw .. thats the sort of offer, I find hard to resist.


Saturday, 16 July 2016

1st Test - England v Pakistan - Lords

Pre-game lays of England, looked at times, +Ev, and -Ev, and at times, it was the sort of 1st 2 days, where u could just leave up reverse trades, and leave them.

Anyway, after 2 days, of mkt love for England, the mkt may have to rethink.

Eng currently 86 behind in 1st dig .. 3 wkts left.

Eng 1.96

Pak 2.68

Draw 8.2

Eng against spin, seem unsure (lets put it kindly), but, Pak will always battle to score runs, given their long tail .. so, the test seems well poised.

Interesting 1st session, Day 3 .. if Eng get skittled quick .. Pak will be favs ??

Not sure how the mkt will stomach this .. and, with current prices, slightly prefer being with England - thou, no doubt, the mkt will jump on the England tail wkts.

/////

End day 3 --- Pak 281-8 net .. and mkt has both sides 2.02, give or take. (( Both sides have been favs, multiple times))

Mk love back for England, and could easily see new ball/early wkts/20-0 England, touch 1.6x .. but, given spin/wearing pitch, feel its the sort of lay, u should leave, and take the dog for a walk .. it will be too painful to watch.

I am surprised Pak are not decent favs, and have a position with them .. which, I expect to increase, as the bat-shit crazy prices evolve.

Lets hope ..

Saturday, 9 July 2016

Gambling with an Edge - Website

The podcast finally has a home on the web, where many, many valuable interviews and references are listed.

If u are involved with gambling for a living, u need to see this :

Gamblingwithanedge.com


Thursday, 7 July 2016

Keep Clam and Proofread

The generally, miserable summer in England continues apace, with more games either shortened or called off.

This has given me more time .. travelling to the scheduled cricket games, which, seem purposefully, to be as far away as the previous day as possible.

I have listened to some quality stuff : (via audible app)

The Silkworm - by J.K Rowling .. (Robert Galbraith) is as good a fictional book, as I have read, in a v long time, and would totally commend it. Its the 2nd book in a series, so, maybe read her debut, under an assumed name first .. but, its not necccessary.


Sri Lanka were generally, v mediocre, and made England look good.

I am pleased Pakistan are here to play, and hope Amir (fast bowler, banned for 5 yrs, for taking bribes for spot fixing), is given a fair chance.

I think England at 1.75 or so, to win at Lords, was crazy .. especially now Anderson/Stokes wont play. They are now 2.00 .. and still think they are worth opposing.

Trawling the net .. this was a fun poker video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StfWM8ns_9U#t=433.098706

Monday, 4 July 2016

More of the same ... Apple - U are rotten to the core

I have a list of companies I wont give the time of day to, and Apple and Virgin Trains, are right up there.

The customer service is pathetic, rude, and unhelpful.

They genuinely think they are doing u a a favour, letting u, buy their wares.

When a recent apple Ipad stoped charging, I was forced to waste 15 mins on the website, to book an appointment on the 'Genius' Bar. U cant book on the website .. they don't let u know this .. but, expect u to walk into the shop, to be given a slot, 1-2 hrs later, when it suits them.

No apologies for anything .. just, suck it up. Then, they are not allowed to open the piece of crap .. but, can let u upgrade to a replacement model, for not far short of full cost. Complete xxxxx, IMHO, I hope they go bust.


Sunday, 19 June 2016

Brexit - Decent Arb

Since the tragic death of Jo Cox, sterling has had a fantastic run, gaining 600 basis points, from 1.40, to 1.46.

Some forecasts from the city, worked from options, seems to indicate an implied probability of Britain staying in Europe, of about 1.2x.

Current price on Betfair, is 1.40. Looks too big, whichever way u gonna vote.




//

1 pm, Next day, Remain on Betfair 1.28, after pound went higher.

Ching, ching !!!


Thursday, 16 June 2016

Quality

We spend most of our lives, running the treadmill of life.

At times, it seems a long, uphill, unequal struggle .. and I have many sympathies for people who have an unfair start (by the sheer randomness, of being born in the wrong country).

This has started out quite miserable, which, wasnt my intention .. but maybe highlights, just how happy u should be, when you happen to come across sheeer quality, whether it be in the arts or anything.

World class, is just that .. World class, and I have often watched superstars in different fields, than I am used to, and admired their talents.



Chris Gayle, is a superstar of cricket - but got involved in a sexism row, when interviewed by a female reporter last yr. I heard a podcast recently, where he defended himself .. I thought correctly (I thought the whole issue was well over-blown - if that makes me sexist, I can live with that) .. and defended himself/his brand/image, which may have lost value, as a result.

I thought no more about it, but, last night at Taunton, he was due to play, but the game was rained out. Waiting for the game to be called off, I spoke to someone, who was one of 500 people who had attended a charity cricket game, held at the weekend, which Gayle attended.

Chris mingled with the crowd, and was genuinely approachable. He wasnt supposed to play, but, pads were found, and played the last 4 overs (Got 60 for fun), but the nice thing was, when someone caught one of his sixes in the crown, he got down on his knees, and did the "I am not worthy, rasing arms thingy" .. which was genuinely funny.

http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-06-13/chris-gayle-hits-half-century-for-charity/

The bowling was rank, but, it was probably supposed to be ..