Saturday, 27 May 2017

Windows Vulnerabilities

During my trading career, (15 yrs), I have ... knowingly, 3 times been hacked.

Once, my email was hacked, and a bank account number, I was supposed to pay £3k into, was changed, to another .. so, the hacker, got the trf. Pretty sneaky, and clever .. if u ignore the loss.

Last week, my servers were targeted, and all files were encrypted .. a message was left, saying I could get the encryption  key, for 1 bit coin .. about $2k.




I declined .. and had the server re-built.

Its a warning .. in this digital age, few things are safe. 2 factor authentication is v useful, as are other methods, of storing passwords.

The most worrying thing, was I had no idea, how they got into the servers .. as nothing was downloaded to them .. it must have been a Windows vulnerability .. and, I have now applied all patches/changed passwords etc.

Not good... but, is one of the prices, of this digital age.

//

In other news .. A certain Irish airline, had a late take-off, by about a hr. This caused me to miss the shuttle, from returning airport, to train station, which caused a further delay, in catching said train.

The survey request, from Irish airline, was completed .. not happy.

Saturday, 20 May 2017

Roadblocks ..

So, there is a thread on Bet Angel, re a trader who has decided to call it quits. Hes 20 yrs old .. grew a bank from 1k to 10k, then lost all of the winnings, in 1 day.

Hes decided to quit .. and the thread has run to 5 pages.

I am now, tired/jaded and not in a good mood to be compassionate .. which, is a neg EV play anyway.

People dont like the truth. He should quit, and move on, but basically wants sympathy.

We all want sympathy. Everyone has a good story, about how hard they work. Details are just details, if u havent got the self-motivation/life skills  to be a pro-gambler, then the market will get you,



//

Am losing weight, whuch is maybe making me crotchety. How the fuck, can a muffin have 450 calories, when a Jammie Dodger has 78. How can Rhubarb yoghurt have 114 calories, when raspberry has 46. Life isn't fair .. get used to it.

Sunday, 23 April 2017

Tennis Balls and High Blood Pressure

This blog hasnt re-invented itself, but, here is a health tip.

Recently listened to a podcast, where they analysed the blood pressure of ultra-fit fighter pilots.

Some had high blood pressure, some low. It seemed random, but, u would have thought, they would all have been low.

After comparison of the habits of both sets .. it was found, those pilots that gripped the joy-stick firmly, all had lower pressure.



To try and improve the blood pressure of the other group, simple exercises were created.

Get 2 tennis balls, hold one in each hand, firmly for 6 secs, then relax and repeat for 3 times. This was done for 6 sets .. so, the exercise takes maybe 5 mins max ..

After 2 weeks, all the pilots had dramatically improved blood pressure.

Try it .. whats to lose ?


Wednesday, 12 April 2017

Truth and Honesty

I'm in an odd spot right now, in that lots of things are passing me, which, I would normally comment on, but, its either too sensitive, or too informative, to be just passed on, to the general public.

That probably sounds pretentious .. spot on - live with it.

In a poker forum, I came across this quote/passage, which, I think applies to most things :

You will not make money in the market, unless you are smarter and more knowledgeable than the money weighted average of the market participants, in whatever niche you choose.

By commenting in a blog, my information - unless its bogus, has to increase the overall market knowledge, thereby making it harder to win. As I sell nothing, this is not my job, and its a -EV spot, to help people.

Social media is a full tapestry of people.

I was watching a cricket game in New Zealand, where the rain had been relentless, and it was fairly clear the last day of the test match would be rained out, resulting in a draw.

Being there Live, I know this post by Morty, was a blatent falsehood .. but, its interesting, the tweet, caused the draw price to spike to +/- 1.50, which was just theft.


This was reality :


And, 1.15 the draw, was if anything, a good price.

I dont think people should be allowed to get away with this. Morty has a history,  of doing this shit, and, its wrong. Weather u can sue, for posting known lies, is a bit debateable, but, I think people should be aware, what can happen.

Saturday, 8 April 2017

The Feds finally got Billy

Billy Walters is a legendary sports bettor in Las Vegas, and has been hounded by the authorities for many years.



He has been accused of many infractions of the law, over his 70 yrs, but, this is the first time, hes been found guilty. Am sure he will appeal .. likely to get 5 yrs+, as it stands.

(Phil Mickleson - who I once saw in a UK betting shop, asking what 'cartoon racing' was .. maybe dodged a bullet, by paying an admission of guilt fine, a yr or so ago)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/billy-walters-win-streak-ends-with-insider-trading-conviction

Saturday, 11 March 2017

White Flag .. if I can find one (everything sold, to pay margin)

Ok, enuf.

I have been destroyed by the inexorable rise in stock marjets, since Trump took over, and, its time to retreat, and lick my wounds.

I need a industry size licker .. one of those they use for postage stamps (remember them ?) ..




So, am now out of everything, and have turned my phone off. Dont call me, and dont leave any messages. - Oh, and dont mention me, in random blogs, who know nothing.

In other news, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

5 yrs ago, I came to Dunedin, to watch a pedestrian test match, where the run-rate crawled along, and rain threatened .. finally killing the last day, and a draw ensued.

Fast forward, the ground has been modernised, the students have got louder, but the run-rates are still low, and day 5 is again washed out.

If we are still here in 5 yrs time, we can get out of it, backing the draw.

Thursday, 9 February 2017

$400 Trillion buys u a lot

Reading Edward Thorp's new book ... 'A man for all markets', is a joy, as he knows his subject, like inside out, and relates it well, to the average reader.

Reading books, I often find cross-referencing .. and, sometimes, I can either agree, with what was written elsewhere, or pause.  (Especially, when the authors are now dead), there are disputes, as to the truth. For instance, Kerry Packer,('The rise and rise of Kerry Packer') was obviously an extremely wealthy man, who liked to gamble, gave huge tips, but, sometimes, did not pay his gambling debts. This I found odd. In Bill Waterhouses book, in 2009 'What are the odds', he gave his account, of a dispute with Kerry, and how he could have handled it better.

In just about all life, there are 3 sides to any story .. your version, his version, and the truth, which maybe in between.



In Edward Thorps book, he puts the value on the earth, at $400 trillion. I am sure he is right .. this man makes few mistakes, and Warren Buffet put the value of the world gold value, (in 2009), at $7 trillion, and the value of the US stock market, about $20 trillion. So, I can see, that the numbers make sense.

What doesnt make a great deal of sense to me .. is the prices for cricket hospitality in the UK.

Its looking like a v busy summer of cricket, and I am being inundated with offers .. last chance !! to buy hospitality, ranging from $340 to £500 for a days cricket.

The cheapest I have actually paid for a ticket (many places were free), is $0.25c, to watch an international match in Sri lanka, on the concrete steps. Sure, its uncomfortable .. but, u get what u pay for. At £400 for a ticket, u would have to drink, an awful lot, to realise anything like value, and your body, may take offence.

I hope people stay away .. but, fear, they will not.

Thursday, 2 February 2017

Time resource and Social Media

Listening to an Alec Torelli (poker player), Youtube, talking about currencies of a Poker Player, and how he rates Money/Time/Mobility/Influence.

Having been up all night, trading a Completed Match Market, which, ended NO .. game was abandoned without a ball bowled, I was struck by a few chords.



Over the last 2 days, I lost money, following an Apple short. It wasnt much money, and, sensibly, I cut the position, once the immediate results were out, as, I would have lost a bit more.

During the CMM, twitter can be alive and slow. I follow a few people, a few people follow me. In the olden days, if I posted a picture of weather conditions, it would move the market .. so, I stopped.

The game above, was supposed to be 50 overs a side, but, it can be reduced to 20 overs a side, so, the 8 hrs allotted, can be cut, to about 2 hrs. After 4 hrs of waiting, the CMM, has traded from a v heavy favourite, of Yes, there would be a game, to No, being a heavy fav, at about 1.30.

It was 6pm local time, and a final inspection had been called for 6.30pm. Nothing can be done - match wise, till they have the final inspection.

One of my twitter .. lets call him Marty - posted 'Game Abandoned - more to follow'.

Almost instantly, £20k appeared wanting to back No game, at 1.01. Even sleep deprived (this was in the wee hrs), I had to lay my share, and took profits, when people realised, this was a pretty big mistake, by someone.

The game was finally called off, 45 mins later ..

The point I am trying to make .. is that, my using Time, to look at Social Media, is both good and bad. Its a balance. You will win some, lose some. Maybe refinement of the followers, and heavy diltuion of what some people say, is part of the process, to what it takes to win .. but, thats the game.

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

Apple Update - Lost again ..

The YOLO (You only live once) .. am I the only one, who has to google what these newer acronyms mean ?, wasnt a spectacular fail, but, a fail never the less.




The live results conference call, was hosted on Youtube, by our friend the Wolf .. who appears to have a  Canadian accent, and gathered 14k viewers.

It was almost certainly a demo account .. If he was getting a kick-back, from spread companies, who make money, on the bid/ask spread, I would be impressed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ilpE7caEXU

In researching this short, there are other funny videos on youtube .. from -- supposed ex-employees, making fun at the design of Apple products. It does make sense, but, maybe, with the fires from rival competitors, now, was not the best time to short. Ipad sales are off .. and likely to stay low .. maybe next time :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrpsA98DhCI

Monday, 30 January 2017

Apple earnings .. Turning $2.5 into dust ..

In a different life, I have done my absolutes, shorting this (which was dumb, but, was a re-active condition, after massive poor service).

Apple is due to report earning, tomorrow.



This is an interesting read, about someone, left $2.5m, has lost $2.15m of it, and is now, shorting the stock, hoping to get even.

I would love him to be right :

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/5qhzcy/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Basin Reserve (Wellington) - off my Xmas card list

When someone asks me, which is my favourite cricket ground/racecourse, I normally answer, based on past betting highlights. Oddly, both Taunton cricket ground and racecourse, have been good to me .. I dislike v few (obviously, Edgbaston is right up there), but, starting to get some traction, is the Basin Reserve, in Wellington.

I have some history, with this ground. 4 yrs ago, (it seems like a lifetime), I was watching S.Africa play N.Zealand at this ground, and, pretty much as usual, it was raining. It was the 4th day, of a 5 day test. I was happy to see it rain, I had backed the draw v heavily, and it was all good. It was banging down, an hr before the game was due to start - which was impossible, given the rain/state of the ground, but, I had a ticket etc, and .. with a good book, was happy to sit in the stand, and watch the ducks play.

It took some time to get into my alloted seat .. the section i was in, had been padlocked, and .. no-one had the key, as they didnt expect customers etc .. but, I finally got in. As it happened, my seat was quite close to the umpires locker room, and they saw me reading my book, as they ventured out, to look at the pitch. After 2-3 inspections, an umpire maybe thought I had better things to do, and said, I could probably go home in an hr, as they were likely to call the game off, for the day. This was cool .. I backed the draw some more ..

As the umpire disappeared into the changing room, the rain stopped, the sun came out, and literally, they were playing, 45 mins later. Luckily, I was able to salvage my book, but, Wellington, got a black mark.

Fast forward 4 yrs.

The N.Zealand / Bangladesh test, looks a certain draw, especially, as its raining v heavily on day 4.

Players havent left the hotels - radio stations, asking local residents, to a man, say, no play before lunch .. and once again, I back the draw.

Once again, the sun comes out, the rain misses the ground, and players were 5 mins late, starting - with little warm-ups, they were so-caught out.

This time, I couldnt recover my book, and lost, pretty heavily.

Not a great start to the year -- I did little wrong, but, paid the price, of listening to 'Joe Public'.