2nd T20 - England v N.Zealand - Oval

 

I don't like to be negative .. Honestly, and went to this game, despite not having a ticket.

I got there at a few minutes past start time, having studied the weather patterns all day, and though play, was at the best, 'iffy' , and most likely, would be severely interrupted.

I got there, (having been given a ticket), to see I had missed all the action - such as it was .. 2 balls, and England were 0-1.

Then, light drizzle forced the players to leave, and despite some efforts from all concerned, play never resumed.

In my view, they went off, a fraction early, but, that was unlucky.

I could not really fault the Oval .. They tried, but, where once again, they were poor, was in communication to the Public.

The PA system, is just impossible to hear, at least in the OCS stand .. And I asked 6 people on the tube after, where they sat, and if they could hear the PA, and all said, No.

Is it so hard, for them to actually improve this .. They have done well in most other areas ..

 

Posted with Blogsy

Champions Trophy Final - India v England - Edgbaston

We know if it's Edgbaston, it's gonna be wet, and we weren't disappointed.

The completed match market, traded over £10 million, which is a decent sum.

I was v heavily involved in these markets, and posted on twitter, my book, at a certain point .. it was a nice picture.

The book was heavily influenced with the theory, the ICC would change the rules .. just a guess, but, it made sense .. and it paid off.


In their wisdom, the ICC couldn't find space in the schedule, to allow reserve days, for either the semi-finals, or the final .. So, when the rain fell, both on the 2nd semi, and the final, the public were left largely wondering, what would happen.

I don't have a problem, specifically, with no reserve day, but, it appears the ICC changed the cut-off times, at least for the final .. And, this was never communicated to the paying public .. Till way past 4pm.

I saw many people leave their seats, and go home .. And u couldn't blame them .. As, they judged they were being taken for complete fools, by staying .. Which Edgbaston, has a history for.

All the ICC are doing, is alienating the public .. I suppose they don't care, it's all about TV revenue, but, u can only get away with so much.

In the game itself, you saw just how important momentum is .. I think Bell losing his wkt, is a 50 over game, last yr, saw the same sort of collapse .. and .. Dhoni is a quite brilliant captain/wikky/batsman.

Posted with Blogsy

Game 3 - Champions Trophy - England v Australia - Edgbaston

Prelude to the Ashes, and one to saviour.

No Clarke for Aus, and England have Swann missing/rested/hidden and Finn dropped, or not the right balance.

Eng win the toss, and decide to bat.

It should have been a 325 pitch, but, after a great start, Eng miss opportunities to press on, and allowed Aus back into the game.

Bell scored 91, but,it was one of those innings, you ever knew if it was match winning, or losing.

Bopara added some much needs runs, quickly at the end, as England finished on 270. I though it was 40 light, but, Warner isn't in great nick, and once Watson was out, they folded pretty tamely.

Hard to see Aus winning this tourny, without Clarke.

I can't really see Eng winning it either, but, they have very decent bowlers.

Posted with Blogsy

2nd Test - England v N.Zealand - Headingley - Day 5

Well, this should be fun.

After, what some would say, an ill-conceived refusal of enforcing the follow-on, England are left needing 4 wkts ..

The only problem, is that rain washed out all play on Day 1, and, looks likely to hugely interrupt play on Day 5.

Weather watchers have had the market all over the place.

At COP on day 4, they had it ... And the market, was bouncing around ..

Eng 2.02
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 1.98

A massive move, early evening, saw :

Eng 1.53
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 2.88

This move, was based on a perceived window, from about 1.30 to 4.00pm, when it was thought, enough time would be available, to clean-up/play/get 4 wkts.

This move, was for v substantial sums .. But,they looked foolish, when morning forecasts were a good deal bleaker.

5.30 am .. They had it. ..

Eng 1.84
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 2.24

I had to back the draw at this price .. Ad was well rewarded, as 3 hrs later ..

Eng 2.40
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 1.7. .. I even laid some 1.60 ..

9.30am, and it currently sits

Eng 1.92
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 2.10

As you can see, it's a very volatile market, and one likely to be that way, for most of the day, as people second guess the state of the outfield/time to get the pitch fit for play/break in the clouds ..

It's free to go in, so, am on the rattler ..

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Intended to update this in real-time, but, as ever, got wet/busy, so, will have to do it retro ..

On the rattler back, and it was .. as expected .. a very volatile mkt, with professional money, coming for England, at times, when rain/drizzle seemed likely to scupper them.

In the end, they got way with it .. but not before Mr Draw went odds on, and in the end, final - terminal rain, may have been only 30 mins away.

The internet weather sites, only show generalised forecasts, and is not tailored to the needs of sports bettors, who want depth of rain/bad light, for an exceptionally localised region/time.

I wouldn't blame them .. and even more expensive mechanisms, still need a pair of eyes on the ground, to confirm what weather maps say .. I have often been at games, where sites say it should be raining, but, its so, fine, it doesn't register, and vice versa.

Interesting, that playing conditions seem to have changed. NZ restarted batting, with light drizzle .. and played on, thru it. In olden times, a scent of a drop, would have had them scurrying. Bad light, also, wasn't considered .. or maybe it was, and discarded .. one never really knows.

Anyway, got wet, and had fun .. which is the main thing.

Won a few quid.

Posted with Blogsy

2nd Test - England v N.Zealand - Headingley

Predictably wet.

Eng 1.88

NZ  12

Draw 2.34

Rain, pre game, saw Mr Draw go odds, on, and its likely there will be only 50 overs on day 1.

Days 2,3,and 4, looks much warmer .. so, on this basis, think draw is a lay, especially at 2.00 or so.


Some interesting Test Draw Analysis, from Ric Finlay, who runs a database service, in Aus.

% of Tests, Drawn

Leeds 25.4

Edgbaston  31.9

Lords   37.3

Nottingham  37.9

Oval    37.9

Manchester   46  ...

Rains a bit, in Manchester.


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So, all of Day 1 lost.

They can probably make up, 8 overs or so a day, with good weather.

Prices, pre-toss

Eng 2.86

NZ  13

Draw 1.76

.....

Eng win toss, and Bat

Eng 3.0

NZ   14

Draw 1.71

...........................

Have taken Red.

At Lunch, Eng 67-3 ..

Eng 2.68 ... looks desperately short, and have laid

NZ   12  .. about right, maybe 2 points too big

Draw 1.80  .. looks big

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COP  .. Eng 337-7

Eng 2.2

NZ  40

Draw 1.91

.. Have Red book, going no-where ..

Game liquidity seems to be affected by lack of Indian money, as most bookies are hiding for cover, waiting for IPL fixing storm, to pass by.

//////////////////

Start day 3 .. big move for Eng, on the back of improved weather for Tues.

Had to lay Eng at 1.8x, before NZ bat ..

NZ get to 50, for 0 wkts, and I take all profits, getting rid of red, and making a cup of tea.

Wkts then fall .. NZ really fragile, and, in retrospect, was lucky they got off to such a good start.

....................................................

Surprised Eng didn't enforce the follow-on .. u do wonder sometimes, if commercial interests, are at the heart of some of these decisions .. (get more people to ground, Day 4/5).

Anyway, have flat book.

1st Test - England v N.Zealand - Lords

Been really busy, and have only small trades on this game, till now.

End Day 2 :

Eng 232 AO, NZ 153/4 .. Mcslogger/Williamson, still in.

Eng 4.0

NZ 4.0

Draw 2.0


NZ been as high as 30, which looks big now.

Weather v hard to read, but looks like rain at points, on all 3 remaining days.

At the prices, laying NZ , small.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

End day 3, and NZ went much bigger, but didnt buy back fancy prices.

Weather F/C has cleared a lot ..


Eng  1.48

NZ  5.0

Draw 7.6


Laid chunks of draw.

//////////////////////////////////////////

And so, Eng won in 4 days.

Props to Stuart Broad .. never really been a fan, as he seems to have mood swings, but, his batting came good, followed by a match winning bowling spell. Bresnan must be choking .. cant be fun, being the guy on the fringes, watching the guy u would like to replace, play a blinder.