Tuesday, 29 December 2015

!st Test - General thoughts

Here are some overall thoughts, which, may or may not, be relevent.

The S.African team 'color' quota, gives the selectors many headaches. I wouldnt play, Duminy or Bavuma. Van Zyl is being played in the wrong spot, because, of selection issues.

Many S.African players, have mental scaring, from India. Elgar, looked much better. Du Plessis, gets one last chance, or is dropped for Van Zyl.

ABd is pure class. Steyn  got the key wkts on Day 1, and Eng would have scored 50-100 more, if he hadnt played. Morkel bowled v good, Piedt got a 5 for, and seems better than Tahir.

The pitch was 6-8 mph slower than usual. Which didnt help SA bowlers .. but, also didnt really help Eng.

S.Africa fielded poorly, Amla is not a captain .. he is anonymous on the field, and has poor form to contend with, let alone all the media, that he is not a natural for.

Eng played v well, and look on the up. With Anderson back, probably for Woakes, I would be happy to back them.

My S.African team for CT would be :

De Cock
Du Plessis

But, that doesnt fit the quota .. so, wont happen.

Betting markets loved S.Africa, for most of Days 1 -3, then, sorta woke up.

I hope they love them again in CT .. for me, they are a maximum punish (at wrong odds).

Thx for all the postive feedback on twitter and her. Its nice, but, as a v wise old bookie once
told me, 'There no praise like that u can put in your back pocket'.

Its true .. manage your own positions, and pay your own bills. Nothing else matters.

Monday, 28 December 2015

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 4 Trading

Book brought forward :

SA -£2900

Eng +£7200

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6200

Ok, what have we seen so far ?

IMHO, a very well disciplined England team, who batted ok, and bowled with great lines/fielded well, and generally, played pretty good.

A ragged S.African team, who, clearly rely too much, on 2-4 individuals, who fielded poorly, and may be on a downward curve.

England lead by 261, with 7 wkts left. I am sure Cook will be cautious, but expect a declaration, maybe 40 mins before Tea .. setting S.africa 400+.

Trading wise, the first 3 hrs will probably be pretty dull - unless England really bat quick, or S.Africa get a heap of wkts.

Current Prices

S.Africa 15

England 1.47

Draw 3.9

I have no wish to get involved, but, would back the Draw at bigger.

Oh, and BTW, think the Barmy Army are well below par .. v few songs .. they need to up their game a bit.

In the 4 hrs before the game, the Eng price has gone from 1.47, to 1.42 and back to 1.49.

Someone, taking it for a walk ...

Eng lose 2 wkts .. 197-5, lead by 286.

SA 8.6

Eng 1.47

Draw 4.8

New ball due in 2 overs .. if they take it , as this one is reversing. England looking to get on with it.

Some of these comments never showed 'live' .. dunno why.

Trade - lay 3000/750 draw 

Wkt - Taylor - Eng 224-6 

SA 5.5

Eng 1.47

Draw 7.4

Trade - back draw 3000/460

Eng 242-6 .. lead by 330

Eng crash to 1.37 ?

Trade - lay Eng 1750/5000

Someone got the muchies fir Eng 1.33 ?? .. shuda laid this price.

lead 350-6

15 mins to lunch

SA 12

Eng 1.37

Draw 5.1

Wkt - on review - Ali - Eng 361-7 ..net.

SA 8.6

Eng 1.37

Draw 6

Radio _2000 commemtator says dec imminent .. expletives required .. pick your own.



SA +£2390

Eng +£5740

Draw +£10900

Equity +£6400

Will look to get back on Eng, but think price wrong.

Eng lead 404-8

SA 16

Eng 1.36

Draw 4.8

Wkt - Broad 404-9

SA 12

Eng 1.35

Draw 5.3

Eng 416 all out ..net.

SA 9.4

Eng 1.35

Draw 6.6

370 in a losing cause been scored here before, batting last.

SA need a good start etc .. not totally happy with my book, but, cant do much, st these prices.

SA 2-0

Saa 6.4
Eng 1.5!!
Draw 5.7

Trade back Eng 2000-4000

Solid start - SA 26-0 .. which is promising for them going forward, as Van Zyl could easily have been a basket case.

SA 5

Eng 1.59

Draw 5.6

Mkt going into meltdown

SA 49-0

SA 3.55

Eng 1.66

Draw 7

hmm ... The rapid start, with all the time available, has some traders v worried.

Wkt - Van zyl bowled for 33 - SA 53-1

SA 5.3

Eng 1.42

Draw 8.4

Tea - SA 65-1 .. need 351 more, in 4 sessions .. 120 overs or so.

SA 5

Eng 1.45

Draw 8.8

Interesting game .. and fair play to Van Zyl , who played v positively.


SA + £3350

Eng +£6700

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6000

Sa 82-1 .. mkt will get v twitchy, if Amla gets to 30 odd not out .. presently on 12

SA 3.4 .. they couldmeasily be odds on tomite ..

Eng 1.66

Draw 12  friendless .. rightly

Its 3.20 local .. play till 5.00 .. 30 more overs apprix .. they could be 200-? at close ..

Fllodlights coming on .. but not dark ..

Wicket - Amla chases one .. poor shot .. 85-2

SA 5.6

Eng 1.4

Draw 7.8

Wkt -Elgar goes, then a brief shower .. all hell let loose

cant keep up, 93-3

SA 12

Eng 1.28

Draw 7

Getting dark, but brighter in distance .. take your pick.

Drinks .. 19 overs left in day, but, not likely to see them all.

SA 113-3 .. need 290 more ..

all,about ABd and Du plessis ..

SA 7.6

Eng 1.31

Draw 9.2

looks right ..

SA 120-3 .. v little intent from SA .. blockathon.

batters look solid .. draw at 6.0 has some appeal.

Wicket - du plessis with 3 overs to close - SA 136/4

Massive Wkt, with, as it turns out, just 3 balls or so, left in the day.

SA 16

Eng 1.21

Draw 8

Abd is absolute class, but cant fo it by himself.

Steyn comes in as night watchman

Final Book :

SA + £3350

Eng +£6700

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6000

I will leave it like this. I dont feel I traded optimally today, there were some clear opportunities I didnt take .. and u could argue, I should have just left my position, as it was, on Day 1.

Still .. 

Sunday, 27 December 2015

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 3 Trading

Prices at COP  (Close of Play)

SA 2.2

Eng 2.84

Draw 5.0

My Book :

S.Africa -£800

England +£14200

Draw -£12000

Equity -- +£2200

Lets think about this :  S.Africa are 166 behind, with 6 wkts left. Run lines make them likely to get 310. 

There are 298 overs left in game, time allowing. Weather seems ok.

If Eng go back in to bat, say, an hr after lunch, their run line will prob be about 275 (maybe less).

Its clear, Draw at 5.0 is barking, but so, is SA at 2.2.

If I wasn't constraining my exposure to £20k, I would  lay another chunk of the draw.

I make the betting, something like :

S.Africa  2.5

England 2.4

Draw 8,0

So, have not changed the basic flavour of my book, if anything, added to Eng.

Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.

Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve,  and an auto lay, going forward.

6am Local .. Day 3

I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.

Mkt now :

S.Africa 2.36

England 2.50

Draw 5.7

At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200

Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :

Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500

Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day

SA 2.56

Eng 2.00

Draw 8

Trade - back draw 6000/1000

Wkt - Duminy 152-6

Sa 3.1

Eng 1.8

Draw 8

Wkt - Abbot 156-7

SA 3

Eng 1.72

Draw 9.4

All good   --  at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.

Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.

SA 3.45


Draw 8.2

Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up

current book

SA win +£3100

Eng win +£7200

Draw lose -£1100

Book equity £3700

Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.

SA 200-7

SA 2.58

Eng 2.1

Draw 7.2

SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.

Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8

SA 2.84

Eng 1.81

Draw 9

SA 214 all out

Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.

Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.

SA 3.3

Eng 1.64

Draw 11  ?????  ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.

Equity in book, £5200

England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.

Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.

SA .6

Eng 1.59

Draw 5.1

Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102

SA 3.4

Eng 1.75

Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)

Trade - back draw 6000/1000

Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.

Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.

Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.

(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)

Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.

SA 3.55

Eng 1.7

Draw 7.2

Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.

Book now :

SA win +£2100

Eng win +£6200

Draw lose -£1100

Book equity £4900

SA 3.7

Eng 1.68

Draw 7

Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.

Drinks final session

Eng 111-2 lead by 200

SA 10

Eng 1.5

Draw 4.1

10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3

Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..

The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :

Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???

Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???

Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.


Eng lead by 261-3.

Steyn injured.

2 days left ..

SA 13.5

Eng 1.49

Draw 3.85

A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.

Book :

SA -£2900

Eng +£7200

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6200

Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.

play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.

wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.

Saturday, 26 December 2015

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 2 Trading

Its not much fun, when u compose posts, and the app u are using finds a way to either lose them or garble them so badly, they are unreadable.

That happened too many times yesterday, and ... alrhou I badly needed sleep last night, spent a few hrs, looking for an alternative solution. I sorta found one, but, it is limited .. in that I cant post pictures .. thou, I can obviously add them after play, at a laptop.  (May have found a way to post some pics .. amazing what u learn, when in need)

So, this is an interim solution. Sorry if it looks bad.

Play starts early today, trying to make up, the 25 overs lost from Day 1.

The weather forecast for the rest of the test is good, and thou it does get gloomy after Tea, am hopeful the overs can be made up.

Eng finished on 179-4, after being inserted on a tricky pitch. The run lines have England making about 340 .. which suggests there will be regular wkts.

Overnight, the prices haven't moved too much :

S.Africa 2.6

England 4.1

Draw 2.7

My current book .

S.Africa -£3400

England +£24000

Draw -£12000

Equity +£100

This is a super volatile position, but, apart from wanting to lay more draw, am happy with it.

I should be able to update the blog during breaks.


Sun burning off all the cloud - shud be a batting day. May try and lay S.Africa early, after maybe 5 overs, if no wkt.

Will be interesting to see how the mkt views a decent start by Eng .. the draw may shorten.

Stokes plays an aggressive shot, and puts one in the air. You can argue its a poor shot, but, its the way he gets on with it.

Eng 196-5

S.Africa 2.14

England 4.5

Draw 3.1

Mkt loves S.Afr

Trade --.. laid 3100/3000 .. new ball due in 8 overs, but, think price wrong.

Drinks Eng 232-5

S.Africa 2.56

England  3.75

Draw 2.82

Trade -- Lay 5500/2000 Eng to take some profit/reduce book exposure


Wkt --Compton goes - Eng 247-6

SA 2.32

Eng 4.1

Draw 3

will updates positions at lunch


SA 1.87

Eng 4.6

Draw 3.7


SA 1.66

Eng 5.5

Draw 4.4

Good last stand by Broad and Finn .. Eng finish just over 300, slightly higher than avg 1st inngs score.

At the inngs change,

S.Africa 1.73

England  4.6

Draw 4.7

S.Africa -£4700

England £21600

Draw -£12000

Equity -£250

At one stage, equity was positive, for over a grand .. so, maybe shuda cuda.

England blow during change to 5.7, S.africa, which the mkt has just lived all game, in to 1.61. This was just crazy .. in hindsight, these were just mistakes, and should have been punished.

Run line for s.africa about 380.

This is not a typical test for durban, and am a bit confused. cant bail on eng at this price, would rather back it.

Will sit tight, and cross fingers/ do my money.

Lunch still going on, and prices bouning from a low on SA of 1.6 to 1.75 now.
Eng now 4.3 .. fuck all has happened.

SA 1.77

Eng 4.3

Draw 4.8

Wkt   --  Van Zyl leaves one, and SA 0-1

SA 1.98

Eng 3.2

Draw 5

Trade - Lay 4400/2000 Eng

Wkt -- Amla goes, SA 14-2

Commentators say SA in all sorts of trouble, but, mkt still sees them as favs.

SA 2.2

Eng 2.78

Draw 5.4

Trade - Back SA 2400/2000

SA 22-2

Trade - lay Eng 4300/2000

Drinks - equity in book over 2k, but not cashing in

Devilliers given not out, by 3rd umpire .. big swing in equity for book, but, v hard for 3rd upire to give.

Tea S.Africa 55-2

S.Africa 1.82

England 4.2

Draw 4:5


S.Africa -£300

England +£15200

draw -£12000

Equity £550

Wkt -- Broad finally gets ABd .. now 8 from 11, times he has taken his wkt.

SA 103-3

SA 1.94

Eng 3.45

Draw 5

Drinks .. equity back to 1700 .. think Eng big price, and u have to lay S.Africa

Trade - Lay 4000/4000 SA

Wkt -- Du Plessis - 113-4

SA 2.26

Eng 2.4

Draw 6.6

Trade  -- Lay 5000/3500 Eng .. just to lock in profit ...


SA 137-4 .. 166 behind .. in 152 overs, which I dont really understand .. should be 180 overs in 2 days, so, we are still down 28 overs .. Early start tomorrow, but still .. why not play on tonite ?

SA 2.2

Eng 2.84

Draw 5.0

My Book :

S.Africa -£800

England +£14200

Draw -£12000

Equity -- +£2200

So, can book decent profits, but, not sure I want to ... will think about it.

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 1 Trading

So, here is my book from last night :

S.Africa  -£5400

Eng +£11000

Draw -£300

Current prices on Eve of test

S.Africa 2.32

Eng 3.65

Draw 3.3

Current Equity + £640

During the night, Draw eased to 3.5, but morning drizzle/rain, looks like affecting the start.

S.Africa 2.30

Eng 4.0

Draw 3.15

Think they will get a deal of play in, and it's a massive toss to win.

Against draw, for max.

Cant quite understand how a pitch that has given 8 results, in the last 8 games, has the draw this low :

Toss pushed back 30 mins.

Have v lopsided book ..

Eng win Crown Jewels, S.Africa lose small, Draw lose a fortune.

S.Africa 2.16

Eng 3.75

Draw 3.65

S.Africa win the toss and field.

S.Africa 2.08

Eng 3.75

Draw 3.9

Still with England .. Brightening up, nope ball doesn't swing too much.

Mkt aggressively against SA early, pushing them to 2.38 .. Then cook edges one.

SA 1.86

Eng 4.2

Draw 4.3

Ball doing plenty .. At least for Steyn.


IPad keeps dropping posts - which is giving me mega-tilt.

Early lunch taken, after lightening, then rain.

Eng 12-1 

S.Africa 2.1

Eng 5.1

Draw 3.0

Still against draw ..

Eng 55-3 when more light drizzle stops play. Getting a little dark at times, so, u wonder how bad light Will impact the game.

This piece of crap iPad app driving me crazy .. Have basically same position, going for England, and against draw. S.Africa lose a little bit more than before .. I think 1.6 short enuf.

// Tea -Eng 121-3 ..

S.Africa 2.2

England 4

Draw 3.35

Same book, and would back end more, if I wasn't in balls deep.

Became impossible to update this, via Ipad, and I wont even try for the next 4 days.

My book was good, then not so good, and is now v v average, with all the value gone, as the draw has crashed to below levels I think reasonable.

At COP ..Eng 179-4 .. from a v tedious 65 overs. Play starts early tomorrow, and weather looks ok. Pitch may speed up.

S.Africa 2.6

England 4.1

Draw 2.64

Currently, have a nothing book, with v little equity. Am determined to win on England, and have both the Draw and S.Africa as losers .. the Draw. for the biggest liability.

Monday, 21 December 2015

1st Test .. S.Africa v England - Durban - Boxing Day (Pre-Game Thread)

Its been a while since the English were here .. 2011 I think, when the local currency was a tad stronger (11 Rand to the Pound .. its now 22 ... how times flies).

Its also been a while since I have done a trading thread .. so, although I wont update the thread each session, I will post my positions, up until at least end Day 4.

A week ago, some traders priced up S.Africa as strong 2.1 favs. I have eaten all of this, and my present book, is something like :

S.Africa -£7000  (laid 2.2 avg)

Eng + £5500  (backed 3.5 avg)

Draw +£5700 backed 3.7 avg)

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.44   (Big driffy .. Steyn prob plays, but Philander out)

Eng 3.2

Draw 3.65

Current Equity + £350   (I never knew, how to calculate this.. but, someone kindly told me)

Its current position/Current price .. total all 3 outcomes. So, 7000/2.44 = -2943, 5500/3.2 = 1719, 5700/3.65 =1524. (-2943+1719+1524=350)

I think the current prices are better, but, would still have S.Africa bigger, and the draw shorter.

Above posted, 5 days before game.

Some recent Test 'form' :

In Tests since 1994 : S.Africa v England  stats courtesy of S.Rajesh (cricinfo) @rajeshstats

In South Africa .. 19 tests, SA won 5, Eng won 4, Draws 10

In England .. 20 tests, SA won 8, Eng won 6, Draws 6

Total  .. 39 tests, SA won 13, Eng won 10, Drawn 16

Playing at home, there tends to be results .. just 6 draws, in the last 47 tests in S.Africa (thou that number maybe looks low, as SA played some real rubbish opponents.


Eng won the warm-up game ina a canter, and it doesnt look like any of those S.African 'possibles' will get the nod for the 1st 2 Tests, at least.

Some drizzle today in Durban .. the draw went 3.8, and I added to my position/backed Eng.

Currently, v similar to last night :

S.Africa -£8100

Eng + £7400

Draw +£5100

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.28 .. went to 2.5 during the day.

Eng 3.3

Draw 3.55

Current Equity + £300  

//// - Wee hrs, Wednesday morning .. Appears Anderson Doubtful

So, this is not good, at least for my position.

S,Africa 2.22  in a thin mkt

England 3.75

Draw 3.45

Current Equity -£300

The question is now, whether to panic .. or at least, would like to panic, as the mkt wont let u do much, at 3 am.

Will wait ..


Test starts on Sat .. hope for some early disruptions .. thou, u should be aware, the last 8 tests at the ground have produced results, and .. in general, there are less draws in S.Africa, than other major centres. - Centurion and Johannesburg have only had 1 draw each, out of 19 Tests in the last 10 yrs.

Source : Cricinfo

The pitch looks pretty benign ..

Source : bbctms twitter

On the strength of the above, plus some belief the start will see some poor weather, I added to my draw bias.

S.Africa -£10800

Eng + £9000

Draw +£8000

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.42 .. interesting move, and might highlight weakness during test

Eng 3.5

Draw 3.3

Current Equity + £500

This is probably as big an exposure I will trade, pre-game.


Evening - Test starts in 57 hrs :

In previous trading threads, I have posted pics of my positions on various exchanges.

This yr, its gonna be harder, as I am trying to reduce my use of Betfair .. and using more external sources.

I have 5 main outlets .. and I may decide or not, to picturise my positions. It will be v time consuming to take pics of everywhere .. thou, I understand, the pics add legitimacy.

I will mull over it, but, right now, dont hold your breath.

What makes it harder, is there are exchange biases .. I have no doubt, Betdaq will be biased towards England, and against the draw. Matchbook will generally follow Betfair. Indian mkts, dont exist, so, I wont be using those, either.

I should also add, my positions are v v fluid. I have a tissue (prices), which I work to .. when they get to these, I cut-back or extend my position. I wont flip excessively, but, dont be surprised, if my book come Day 4, is v dissimilar to todays. I will try to explain my rationale as the Test goes along, but, I do a deal of market making .. and its not always easy to post etc.

Anyone who follows these positions, for their own book, are naive/stupid.

Based on the ground stats, the amount time that can be made up etc (thou bad light may curtail this), my percieved weakness of the S.African batting .. I would expect my final book to be v lopsided against S.Africa, and maybe 75/25 in fav of Eng, over the draw. But, I have no set-in-stone convictions.

My bank for the game, is £20k.

Some local sports books in S.Africa have decent arbs, (no Tax on wins), but, will limit u pretty quick, unless u have a losing history. A lot of work, but, maybe worth it.


Evening, 24th

Anderson confirmed out.

Weather picture. arguably, improved.

I have tinkered a bit, but, nothing really dramatic. I might cut-back my S.African exposure by 2k or so, but, not at 2.30.

S.Africa -£8800

Eng + £7700

Draw +£6000

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.3 ..

Eng 3.5

Draw 3.5

Current Equity + £580


Ahem, this is a stuff-up. The Current Equity figs are wrong .. 

Current equity is + 110


Xmas morning, and its raining in Dueban, albeit lightly. This was expected, so a little surprised to see the draw crash thru 2.8.

Morning of Day 1 looks like being disrupted, but, I cant have these prices, and have re-arranged some deckchairs..

S.Africa -£7800

Eng + £8800

Draw +£4000

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.52 .. touched 2.6x ??

Eng 4.0  .. v weak ..

Draw 2.74

Current Equity + £560  .. This fig is right, my excel calc, was adding in a rogue figure.

England posted picture from Kingsmead . doesnt seem so bad :


I am laying Draw at 2.9 .. this price is just wrong (IMHO), will make it level.

Just laid some 2.7 Draw .. now a loser, for me, but, good equity in book.

Odd tinge of green in the pitch .. happy to lay draw at these levels, thou nagging worry, who is taking these prices ??

Root has recovered from stomach illness, and will play.

Woakes confirmed as replacement for Anderson.

Almost time for Xmas dinner .. so, as will likely not post before Midnite, lets tie things off.

Current Book :

S.Africa  -£5400

Eng +£11000

Draw -£300

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.46

Eng 4.0

Draw 2.88

Current Equity + £480

Am tempted to lay 2.9 draw, for Bigs, but, its Xmas.

The price makes little sense, compared to previous evenings, and expect it to meander back to above 3.3.

I have some orders left open, in various places.


Xmas Day eve ..

Well, whoda thght it. Draw price corrected :

Rain may be around before play starts, but, shouldnt last too long. I would have draw 3.75+

Current Book :

S.Africa  -£5400

Eng +£11000

Draw -£300

Current prices ;

S.Africa 2.32

Eng 3.65

Draw 3.3

Current Equity + £640

Happy with balance of book, thou, could have laid more draw, at 2.7 this morning.

Saturday, 19 December 2015

People are stupid ..

I have spent the last 3 days playing golf, and this was gonna be a nice golf ramble, with assorted pics of courses where, labourers must have spent many laborious hours, cutting a railway track into a mountain.

The course now has a dis-used railway line, overlooking it .. and the labourers, must literally be turning in their grave ..

((Ok, I cant resist the pics, of both the railway line, and the buck on my local course, but that's the end of the digression)).

Have been reading a few fora, where people have been discussing how hard sports betting is, how thin edges are, and basically, ya da, ya da, woe is me.

Then, I come across this enterprising individual in the US, who installed self-deleting malware, on state lottery computers, so, it would pick certain combinations of numbers .. which, obviously, he had the winning tickets for.


I admire the guys ingenuity .. sure, its illegal, but, really, when people are so stupid, as to not do due-diligence etc .. then, I can get past it. Lotteries are a tax on the poor anyway ..

Wednesday, 16 December 2015

Cricket and other thoughts

So, the finals of the domestic T20 in South Africa, went exactly as predicted in the previous post, making me .. something like, 28-3 for the tourny, when I had a bet.

Thats a pretty good strike rate .. and highlights the benefits of watching specific players, in specific competitions.

Over confidence can be a v detrimental trait in gamblers, thou, it also sometimes, has its uses .. I am wary, my good run cannot last, but, its been a v decent trot.

I am currently reading a very interesting book, called Trading Bases, which, is just about, one of the best gambling 'model' books, I have ever read.


Its all about a former Wall Street trader, who, got hit by an ambulance, lost his trading job, and to cure the boredom from being stuck in a chair, modelled baseball, with the intention of placing bets, on his model.

I cant recommend it enough .. it has many insights.

Some points he makes, re both the Financial markets/Las vegas/Sports betting/Betting to a bank-roll, are all spot-on.

I am not sure if he started a fund etc .. but, would be willing to commit some money to it, if he did.

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

This n that .. Golf stuff mostly

So, all year I have been banging on about my golf game.

It was a definite goal, to shoot a 90, on a proper course, and although I had sorta done it, never really convincingly, and never, with such flair.

I am bang in form. This isn't really a factor, but, maybe it helps u mentally, when sizing what shot to make/play .. (On a side note, its amazing how often when u tip something on twitter, if it wins, u hear nothing, but, if it loses, the world comes down on u) .. social media I guess.

Anyway, on my local 72 par course, I was level par after 9 holes, making 5 pars, 2 bogeys, and 2 birdies. One of the birdies, was on the stroke 2 hole - seriously hard, needing a 200 yard drive, followed by a 200 yard 3 Wood. I knocked the 3 wood to 8 feet, and made the putt.

This was real golf .. and maybe I tensed up, as the back 9 wasn't so good, finishing with a 84. Questions were asked again, and the handicap committee were not impressed, cutting me immediately to a 19.

The local T20 tournament in South Africa, has been ultra high variance .. your basic traders dream, with favs changing fairly often during the course of the game. I have tipped v well, and my confidence is sky high.

The semi is tomorrow in Durban .. the local side, with KP back, playing the Cobras. They played each other last week, and the Dolphins won .. but Levi got out cheaply .. as he often seems to do, when I watch him. I like the Dolphins to win the semi, but, Titans to win the final on Saturday.

S.Africa played poorly in India, and am not sure they are heading down the right road .. I think England are decent value, for the up-coming test series .. especially if Steyn isnt fit.

Thursday, 3 December 2015

Tiger Woods at 40

Age catches up with us all .. thou, I must admit at times, I look back at games I traded only 5 yrs ago, and it feels like 20 yrs ago.

Tiger Woods will be 40, on Dec 30, and I must admit to being sorry, his back injuries appear to have put an end to his career.

In his day, he was just the best .. and the best, by quite a long way.

I only watched him play Live once, and, he seemed a surly soul, never saying a word. His golf thou, was sublime .. and I suppose, we can forgive.

Here is a compilation, of his best shots.


Tuesday, 1 December 2015

Betfair in the US

The Daily Racing Form .. an online horse-racing portal in the US, which has a large following, has just posted this :


This is a very interesting development, which has taken a great deal of time to have come about.

Its debatable, whether the various lobbyists will allow it to see light of day, but, it shows that the investment Betfair have continued to pour into the US, might finally have something to show for it.

I would take the under, on Betfair opening in March .. i.e., I dont think its likely, but, would like to be pleasantly surprised.

One to keep an eye on.