2nd T20 - England v N.Zealand - Oval

 

I don't like to be negative .. Honestly, and went to this game, despite not having a ticket.

I got there at a few minutes past start time, having studied the weather patterns all day, and though play, was at the best, 'iffy' , and most likely, would be severely interrupted.

I got there, (having been given a ticket), to see I had missed all the action - such as it was .. 2 balls, and England were 0-1.

Then, light drizzle forced the players to leave, and despite some efforts from all concerned, play never resumed.

In my view, they went off, a fraction early, but, that was unlucky.

I could not really fault the Oval .. They tried, but, where once again, they were poor, was in communication to the Public.

The PA system, is just impossible to hear, at least in the OCS stand .. And I asked 6 people on the tube after, where they sat, and if they could hear the PA, and all said, No.

Is it so hard, for them to actually improve this .. They have done well in most other areas ..

 

Posted with Blogsy

2nd ODI - England v N.Zealand - Southampton

England are 1-0 down, and need to win the last 2 games, to win the series.

Weather looks fine for the week, so, they have no excuses.

Presumably, Broad and Finn will still be missing, and they need Anderson/Swann to play well .. As they have been, to restrict, even a dubious looking N.Zealand batting team.

Think generally, England are a touch over-rated in this form, and N.Zealand have a chance.

 

N.Zealand win the toss, and decide to bat. Southee is not playing, which is a fairly big loss.

Eng 1.56

 

N.Zealand 2.76

 

N.Zealand finish on 359-3 ... Some total,especially at the Ageas Bowl, with a mighty impressive knock from Martin Guptil, of 189 not out.

Eng will have to bat, mightily well ..

 

At the break, N.Zealand big favs .. 1.16

 

Eng made a poor effort to get the runs, despite being 50-0, with a decent rate.

Big scores are gettable in the new format, with 2 balls etc, but, they went about it poorly.

Decent 100 from Trott.

 

N.Zealand win e series .. Last game on Wed, becomes a dead rubber.

 

 

Posted with Blogsy

Not Another Draw ...

Test match cricket, is made 'watchable' by some, for the betting interest, derived by the amount of time that can be lost, due to weather factors.

Normally, a Test consists of 90 overs per day, - so, 5 days, makes 450 overs.

Most games, these days, tend to see results in under 400 overs, (just why that is, is debatable), but, its a happy trend, if you like to watch the weather, and are happy, most days will be interruption free.

(Some days, u get a Get-Out-Of-Jail free card, as time can be made up, with early starts/late finishes, but, this naturally, depends on the weather).

Last yr, there were 57 Tests, with, from memory - 11 draws, of which, only 3, were non rain affected.

So, habitual draw layers, who, laid, with gay abandon, as low as an average 2/1 each game, were certainly, in the money.

This year, all was going swimmingly, with the 1st 10 games, all getting results (not a draw).

Then, the shit has hit the collective fan, with drawn games, in the last few weeks :

Eng v India .. Nagpur   ... 17/12/2012

Eng v N.Zealand  .. Dunedin  .. 10/3/2013

Sri Lanka v Bangladesh .. Galle  .. 12/3/2013

and 2 games, looking Drawish on the way, at

Eng v N.Zealand .. Wellington   .. 17/3/2013

India v Australia  .. Mohali   .. 18/3/2013


The volatilty in these games, can be mind-boggling .. u need a v strong stomach, and weather info.

///////////////////////////

Case in point .. the 4th Day, at Wellington.

Draw crashed to 1.4 pre-play, they actually get some play, and Draw goes odds against.

Meanders around a bit, then Eng get a wkt, and Mr Draw goes 2.3 or so.

Flat pitch (as tweeted, many times, and mizzle/rain comes).

2 hrs later, Mr Draw 1.28, which is a great price ...

1st Test - N.Zealand v England - Dunedin -Day 5

Hopefully, it will be a dull day, where Eng bat, probably all day, and l the game fizzles out to a draw.

Not sure if weather will matter, but, right now, the forecast is ok.

England did well, to bat, to a secure position, and it has salvaged my book.

5 days - of all nighters, to lose money - serious money - or not, is no fun ..and I am sure, there will be some books out there, nursing losses. For traders, this sometimes, just can't be avoided, and this Test was unusual, to see England collapse so badly on Day 2, and then bat so well, on Day 4.

I wouldn't be too hard on yourself, if you are looking at a red screen.

 

Posted with Blogsy

1st Test - N.Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 4

Moving Day !!

NZ still batting, (maybe), lead by 235 runs, with 2 days, and 190 overs or so.

Looks clear weather, for most of today .. prices haves settled :

NZ 2.06

Eng 60

Draw 1.98


I am with the draw, by force, more than anything else.

I think its a toss-up, and will be looking to lay the draw, should it go 1.8x.


Ugly book ..


.....................

Mcullum decides not to declare,and go for quick runs, this morning.

So far, thats working .. poor line bowling from Eng ..

NZ finally declare, 9 down, 293 ahead .. a quick 58 runs for them (in 9 overs)

Absolute toss-up, with Eng 100 chances.

If the new ball doesnt get wkts, expect Draw train to gather some steam ..


Comedy green on Eng still ..


India not covering todays play, so, draw 'alledgedly' holding up, longer.

But, pitch seems v slow .. maybe its the cold, but it was the same last March, and will probably be the same, when/if India play there, next March.

Eng 36-0

Eng 2.44

Eng 65

Draw 1.72

Book can now see the tunnel ..


Ok, so lunch ... an odd fact, at the start of the session, Eng were 235 behind, and NZ needed 10 wkts.

At the end of the session, Eng are 235 behind, and NZ need 10 wkts !!


NZ 2.84

Eng 50  ..  my average is 600

Draw 1.58

...

I think Eng will win ..cant have NZ on my mind - its draw or Eng.


/////////////////////////////////////

A few overs after lunch, Eng 82-0.

NZ 3.85

Eng 44

Draw 1.38

Tunnel located, and light shining on a green book.

Holding out for retirement.

1st Test - New Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 3

So, the mighty England (who I think I heard Michael Atherton, say, have a budget of £30m a yr, need to dig deep, to fight off, some well less funded 'minnows')

N.Zealand at odds-on, can hardly be anyones cup of tea .. but, its probably right.

However, having laid most prices, from 9 down to evens, its a decent chance to average out.

My book, is not one, everyone would want,, and comes under the 'Dont try this at home' warming.

Roughly :

Its

NZ    -245 units  (units are not whole numbers)

Eng  + 780 units

Draw + 75 units

...

Something to watch.

----

2 hours before a start, and money has come for the draw :

NZ  2.02

Eng 16

Draw 2.24

Might be a new forecast ..

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

15 mins to start of play .. think Draw will be fav, by Lunch .. lets see.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

A few overs in, NZ score a few, and

NZ 2.38

Eng 20

Draw 1.9

Yes 1.9 ....

Blog readers, should have traded well ..


Exceptional 100 for Debutant Ruthorford .. must be a real thrill.

Mkt is fun to trade .. have it on a rope right now, and, thou my position is not ideal, have a feeling, I will have a v big win .. we shall see ..

////////////////////////////////

NZ get to 402-7, before play is called, due to bad light rain.

They are 235 ahead, with 2 days play of scheduled time left.

Even without rain interuptions, Eng prob need to bat, for 4+ sessions .. similar to what S.Africa did last yr, when they were rolled in the 1st dig fr 200, but scored 400, second time rouund.


NZ  2.52

Eng 50

Draw 1.70

...

Still have precarious position, thou have traded it better .. may escape financial harm.

....

Strill drizzle in Dunedin .. pitch may require a little prep in the morning.


NZ  2.16

Eng  60

Draw 1.92

1st Test - New Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 2

Very fresh early on, but some definite blue sky, and no reason not to think, they will get 90+ overs in today.

The forecasts, for Saturday in particular, are a little more mixed, but, I think we can expect, maybe 350 overs, in this test match, if they are required.

The ground appears to have drained ok.


Early on :

NZ  9  (has to drift, quickly)

Eng 3.1

Draw 1.70


I laid a lot of 1.70 - 1.72, early, and as play started, it went out to 1.80.

Ball doesn't really appear to be doing that much, and think Eng will score plenty (run line about 395), and am anxious not to be against the draw .. I think it has room, to go much lower.


Eng 19-3

NZ 6.2

Eng 3.1

Draw 1.92


All 3 prices are interesting ..

Drinks : Eng 35-3

NZ 7.8

Eng 3.15

Draw 1.78

Draw looks short enough, but cant back Eng at 3.15, and cant fancy NZ, fullstop.

Sit on hands time.


Just before Lunch, Eng 71-5 .. looking rusty, as its not that sorta pitch.

NZ  4.0

Eng 3.6

Draw 2.08

Given the draw was 1.70 before play, 2.1 seems just daft .. with blue skies etc.


Am laying draw - run spread now .. 234

Will catch a few hrs sleep, and may come back, after Tea.


zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


Am I still dreaming ?

The mighty England score 167, and NZ are 68-0, blue sunshine, with 20 odd overs left in the day.

NZ 2.08

Eng 8.4

Draw 2.44

Am against Draw, and have comedy green on Eng .. level on NZ .. would like to see some wkts.


.................

COP

NZ 131-0 ...

NZ 1.94

Eng 18.5

Draw 2.3


Have some problems with my book here, but, I wouldnt neccesarily blame myself, as its a rare occurence for Eng to get rolled for 160 in a day, and then concede 130 for 0.

Not sure of a way forward .. if there is one ..  will give it some thought.

1st Test - N.Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 1

Ahh, Dunedin .. a favourite location of mine - especially if u want to watch it rain.

I spent many happy hours, during the N.Zealand v S.Africa test, watching the birds gather on the wet outfield  .. bliss.

As an aside .. a 5 day ticket/pass for the test last yr .. was $50, this yr, as England are in town, it a great deal  more .. that's a bit naughty.

N.Zealand in March, can be a very wet place .. this yr, its been far hotter, but, as luck would have it, it rained most of the 1st day, and no play was possible.

In part, that due to the outfield/ground, not having world class drainage .. its a university ground, after all.

Pre-game, Eng were 1.68 or so favs, but, now the 1st day has been 'lost' .. 8 overs a day can probably be made up, if light/weather allows, they have drifted to 3.05.

A result might be possible, but, once the rain started, having spent so much time there, I stocked up heavily on the draw, and have a v nice book.

Will re-assess, before play, on Day 2.


Anyone stuck there, could spend some time, going to the Bird Sanctuaries .. they v good.

There are a lot of people, far away from the location, asking for weather info. I try to give my honest opinion, and generally use this opinion, to make, money.

I take offence at people misconstruing the odd post .. on Sunday, I posted tweets about the ODI, which were 100% accurate, and mostly, all I get is flak.

I will block, on twitter, anyone having the slightest dig .. I just dont need it.