Thursday, 24 September 2015

Betfair etc

I am continually scratching my head with this company, for many reasons.

The website of Edward Murray - .. is a dark hole, that may or not, be spurious nonsense .. its a trifle hard to say, but, a lot of things Mr Murray is saying, looks clearly defamatory .. so, u wonder when the court case, is coming.

The website, is reporting of an alleged Melbourne drug lord, laundering money thru the Betfair Australia arm (which was sold/disposed of .. a while ago .. so, maybe its not their problem).

This is on the back, of the million-to-one shot, of the Paddy Power / Betfair merger, which, I continue struggle to find good business sense of. This is clearly just me .. as the 'city' .. saw the news as positive, taking the Betfair share price, from +/- £26 .. to unheard of heights, of £32.

It sort of shows, either what a good job, the new CEO has done, or how under-valued it was, under previous heads.

For me, it seems to be less focused on being an exchange, and more focused on providing a mainstream bookmaker type service .. and that is both a shame, and maybe an opportunity, for others.

Tax issues of the rich and famous

In gambling, and definitely Irish gambling, J.P.McManus is a giant, who whilst I wouldn't say I have followed,  remember documentaries about him, going back over 35 yrs.

JP began as a professional horse-race gambler, before being so successful, was able to diversify into forex trading/studs/other businesses - like buying and selling Man Utd -- a smart cookie, said to be worth over £500m.

He is known to be v generous, do a great deal for charity, and thou I have never met him, am sure hes got a lot of gamble.

In recent days, news of a £5.2m tax problem has emerged, where its believe he won $22m playing either backgammon or poker in 2012, and the losing party sent the IRS the $5.2, as withholding tax, not knowing Ireland has a tax agreement with the US. JP is non-resident in the US.

Professional gamblers in the UK and Ireland are largely exempt from tax (nice) - JP has to play a flat E200k a yr, under the domicile levy .. so, is doing nothing wrong, but, the IRS is dragging its feel in paying back the money.

So, its not the money .. but, it does make u wonder, how protected the IRS is, and how slow they can be. Also ..just how big, are some private poker games ?

Must be nice .. I hope he gets back-dated interest etc.

EV (Expected Value) - of being a cat

I am back in the writing vein, as my house has now largely become a reality, and save for a few new walls being moved, (a mere bagatelle, in the scheme of things), I have been accumulating stuff to write about.

A few things were going to occupy this post .. with such interesting topics as the matchbook traders conference, life EV, my quest for 90 (always stimulating stuff), and various blogs/podcasts,mergers I was gonna take issue with.

That all changed, when I saw the happy state of 2 maine coon cats, we inherited from a previous owner, whose future husband was allergic.

They look chilled .. I suppose they should, they kip for 16-20 hrs a day, get their food served up on a plate, and only really bother to wake up, to destroy my furniture, and annoy the dogs.

I dont suppose they have a blog .. or have to worry about the arcane workings of the Uk betting markets ..

Where do we sign up ?

Monday, 21 September 2015

Rugby World Cup - 2015

Historically, bookmakers have normally found Rugby a very hard sport to beat ..

This may be because 15 men, who are committed/fit etc, can fairly easily balance the effects of a team member under-performing.

The World Cup is a long competition, and to win, more than anything else, u need a v strong squad - not just a great starting 15. Players get injured - tired - etc .. so, countries with depth, will overcome.

As injuries can be such a factor - its a theory, that once a team has 'won' its first/second match, it will ease off - either physically or mentally, in the last 10 mins.

Maybe becos of this, in the last World Cup, all 8 underdogs 'on handicap' managed to win their games .. for example, if Japan were 40 points underdog, they managed to lose by less than 40.

So far, of the 8 games played .. 6 underdogs, managed to win on handicap - and its noticeable, the gap between the historically great rugby nations, and the also-rans, is narrowing.

So far, I havent been that impressed by any team, thou I have little doubt, if New Zealand manage to keep 15 players on the field, they will go v close to winning. At 2.24, it cant be a bet.

I have a little on Ireland at 12/1 .. and have laid S.Africa for maximum. The coach looks nervous, and rightly so - his head looks bang on the chopping block, after Japan at 300/1+, managed a well deserved win.

Monday, 7 September 2015

10 Green Bottles

The nice thing about sport, is that it reminds u of stuff.

Its also a way of keeping track of time .. I cant believe England last toured S.Africa in 2010/11 .. gee time flies. They are due to tour again, at the end of the yr.

I have fond memories of the games, and the Barmy Amy, singing many songs.

One song, which was used to wind-up the locals, was a theme of 10 green bottles, based upon the weakness of the local currency - the Rand.

In 2010, the song started at ..

We get 1 Rand to the pound, we get 1 rand to the pound, etc etc

and seemingly, 15 minutes later, they finished on

We get 12 rand to the pound , We get 12 rand to the pound, We get 12 rand to the pound, We get 12 rand to the pound !!

with a special finish of :

Its so cheap, its unbelievable !!

well, 5 yrs on .. things have changed a bit.

U now get 21 Rand to the £ .. the song will take 35 minutes ..

S.Africa has become ridiculously cheap, for foreigners .. a 5 star hotel can cost £110, a bottle of beer - well its cheap.

For 6 bottles, its R55 or -- £2.70..

I think some holiday makers, will have some v sore heads.