Wednesday, 24 September 2014

Millions by the Minute - Episode 2

I do enjoy watching these type of shows, as they drill down to individuals, all trying to compete against each other.

90% of retail (home) traders fail .. but, the ones that make the promised land, have a great lifestyle, so, sure, lots want to try.

Its a bit odd, that people want to try and win in a zero sum game .. but, thats our financial system.

I dont mind the hedge fund type approach, of the guys from Birmingham .. just hope safeguards are in place etc, so that clients funds are protected.

Sports markets, are not yet, quite big enough to offer Sports Hedge funds, on maybe more sports than Soccer. Lets hope, the global markets get steadily bigger, so that other sports can be traded.


Have joined a local golf club, and am now playing regularly twice a week.

This should help my scores, and indeed, I did manage a decent 97 today, which felt better .. as had 2 balls out of bounds on a tricky par 3 .. (ok, not that tricky, its only 160 metres), and 3 other 7's, elsewhere.

I do think, the 90, is in reach.

One of the guys in my four-ball, was 83yrs young, playing off 29, and shot a net 64 !! He was v pleasant to play with, telling me stories of sport in his youth. Back in the day, sponsorship didn't exist, and he favoured baseball over cricket, as Firestone bought them kit.

His brother, also a natural athlete, still holds the Transvaal record, of 5 wickets in 7 balls .. pretty good effort !!

Am looking forward to the Ryder Cup this weekend, and will try to watch all of it .. I haven't had any real bets .. may look to get with some individual matches, but, really, its just a guess.

I am negative of the financial markets, and think the AliBaba IPO, may have marked a top, in the US and UK exchanges. I am aggressively short ..

Gold has retraced to $1230 or so .. and its been a big winner. Am taking some profit, but, still can see it lower.

Sunday, 21 September 2014

Spots in Life/Gambling .. General

Just a ramble .. like my life.

After a few Champions League games, have managed to win on every one .. and its becoming a more definite factor, that I don't open a position till after, maybe 5-7 overs.

The games are only 20 overs each, so, by waiting 15% of the game time, u get to see :

1. The direction the mkt wants to take .. which is super important, if u want to nick a few ticks, or decide if u want to go against the tide.

2. How far behind your feed is : (for me, its about 7 secs) - so, u tailor your mkt participation, accordingly.

3. What twitter thinks !! .. which, sometimes, can be v interesting.

Anyway, am enjoying the fact there are games every day, and its something to do.

(( I saw a tweet by the bowler Robbie Frylink, who conceded 16 runs, in the last over, to maybe lose a game for his side. Its hard to defend in the last over, so, I didnt blame him, and his earlier 3 overs had gone for .. 16 total, so, he had bowled v well till that point. It shows players do really care, and use social media, probably far more than we appreciate))


I am without a house, and presently renting, whilst the builders/knock down/rebuild.

This is after 1 weeks work : I am hoping to see something complete by March 2015 - but, a lot depends on the weather in the interim (delays) etc.


I am driving about 4 hrs a week now, much less than in previous yrs, and am listening to a v interesting Pod cast ..

These are discussions with people who won a lot/were v good at poker, but decided the overall total of what was being experienced, wasn't enough - and moved on.

The author, is Terrence Chan, who goes about life, looking for greener grass .. and has the balls to experience almost anything. I wish him well .. some of his posts, are v interesting.


I am a v bad text er .. I saw this photo, and it made me laugh.

Maybe we will see car lanes with the same .. I still see far too many people texting, whilst driving.


Have a good one ..

Be yourself - everyone else is taken .. Oscar Wilde

Thursday, 18 September 2014

Champions League T20

So, after some qualifiers, the tournament proper started yesterday.

The first game was in Hyderabad .. a ground well known for chasing, and .. eventually, the chasing side KKR, did get there, but not before they touched 14/1 in running.

Traded totals on the game were  high -- GBP 32 m on Betfair ..

I had some bad initial trades .. not knowing KKR were missing 2 key players, but managed to turn it round.

Quite why, even the TV companies, hide the team sheets, till almost play-start time, is open to debate, but, these mkts are deep enough, so u can pick your spots.

CSK as ever, have mountains of money to support them .. am sure a blind strategy, to just back at certain levels, and trade out, would be profitable.


The Scottish independent vote is today, and I have a massive position on No, at 1.37 average (currently 1.21).

I will be stunned, if I don't collect.

Tuesday, 16 September 2014

Millions by the Minute

Have just watched this show on Iplayer.

Its ok, but, was interesting from a few standpoints.

Firstly, the traders featured, were declaring expected daily win rates, of maybe $1-2k. I thought this was low, but leave that aside for a moment.

Its does highlight, that most successfull traders, don't often have home run wins, where they win a gazillion. Instead, they tend to repeat, smallish type wins. Obviously, the smaller wins have less risk, and add up.

This is a methodology I tend to repeat in my sports trading. I do have home runs, but, rarely lose .. at least lose a lot .. and, it does add up.

If u get a chance, read the 'Wizard' books, by Jack Schwager


They are interviews from super traders, and their methodologies are worth reading.

It was also apparent traders feel they can now trade from home, on, a not uneven playing field, and if u search youtube, u will find many traders, showing videos of how they trade.

I have often wondered what 20 hours of a successful sports traders videos would be worth .. probably quite a lot, but, its hard to make people think its worth it  (if they are gonna pay, for the privaledge).

I like the route, Mark Iversen has taken with CricIntel.

By trying to get a different revenue stream, it protects poor trading periods, and maybe brings more people to the market.

I am not sure, the market is big enough .. I hope it is .. and for now, am buying the info packs.

Monday, 1 September 2014

Dont worry, Be Happy

I have been doing a LOT of travelling around Africa, (not just to find an easy Golf Course to shoot 90 on), thou that's part of it ..

In one place, I stayed at a lodge, where some Jehovah's Witnesses stayed .. (if your head drops, I can understand) . but, they told me stories/facts, that they had local meetings, where 80,000 people turned up, and had over 1500 baptisms.

I manged to avoid conversation on the 1st night, but, on the second, they got me, and we had a discussion. I got a free pen.

They are nice people.

For a lot of them .. possessions inhibit you (maybe that's why I got the pen) ..

The next day, I was playing 9 holes of golf, and was talking to my caddie. I like to take a caddie, as he has better eyes than me to find my ball, and I have someone to talk to .. as most people now avoid me.

He has 2 kids, 2 and 6, and they go to school. From where he stays, it costs him $3 return trip, to get to the golf course, and when he works, he gets $10 for 9 holes, or $20 for 18. There are 110 caddies waiting for a bag .. so, they work maybe 4 times a week, (as people are not playing Golf so much). So, his income is maybe $100 a week.

The school fees for the kids, are $25 a term - each.

U can see, its a struggle, and people are living hand to mouth, but, respect the law, and are peaceful people.

(I asked my taxi driver what he pays in school fees .. he replied $300 a term  but, that's for a school 2 hrs drive away, so she boards)

((Some of the top boarding schools in Africa cost $6,500 a term .. some kids .. who might see this, might see how much their parents love them))