Thursday, 9 February 2017

$400 Trillion buys u a lot

Reading Edward Thorp's new book ... 'A man for all markets', is a joy, as he knows his subject, like inside out, and relates it well, to the average reader.

Reading books, I often find cross-referencing .. and, sometimes, I can either agree, with what was written elsewhere, or pause.  (Especially, when the authors are now dead), there are disputes, as to the truth. For instance, Kerry Packer,('The rise and rise of Kerry Packer') was obviously an extremely wealthy man, who liked to gamble, gave huge tips, but, sometimes, did not pay his gambling debts. This I found odd. In Bill Waterhouses book, in 2009 'What are the odds', he gave his account, of a dispute with Kerry, and how he could have handled it better.

In just about all life, there are 3 sides to any story .. your version, his version, and the truth, which maybe in between.

In Edward Thorps book, he puts the value on the earth, at $400 trillion. I am sure he is right .. this man makes few mistakes, and Warren Buffet put the value of the world gold value, (in 2009), at $7 trillion, and the value of the US stock market, about $20 trillion. So, I can see, that the numbers make sense.

What doesnt make a great deal of sense to me .. is the prices for cricket hospitality in the UK.

Its looking like a v busy summer of cricket, and I am being inundated with offers .. last chance !! to buy hospitality, ranging from $340 to £500 for a days cricket.

The cheapest I have actually paid for a ticket (many places were free), is $0.25c, to watch an international match in Sri lanka, on the concrete steps. Sure, its uncomfortable .. but, u get what u pay for. At £400 for a ticket, u would have to drink, an awful lot, to realise anything like value, and your body, may take offence.

I hope people stay away .. but, fear, they will not.

Thursday, 2 February 2017

Time resource and Social Media

Listening to an Alec Torelli (poker player), Youtube, talking about currencies of a Poker Player, and how he rates Money/Time/Mobility/Influence.

Having been up all night, trading a Completed Match Market, which, ended NO .. game was abandoned without a ball bowled, I was struck by a few chords.

Over the last 2 days, I lost money, following an Apple short. It wasnt much money, and, sensibly, I cut the position, once the immediate results were out, as, I would have lost a bit more.

During the CMM, twitter can be alive and slow. I follow a few people, a few people follow me. In the olden days, if I posted a picture of weather conditions, it would move the market .. so, I stopped.

The game above, was supposed to be 50 overs a side, but, it can be reduced to 20 overs a side, so, the 8 hrs allotted, can be cut, to about 2 hrs. After 4 hrs of waiting, the CMM, has traded from a v heavy favourite, of Yes, there would be a game, to No, being a heavy fav, at about 1.30.

It was 6pm local time, and a final inspection had been called for 6.30pm. Nothing can be done - match wise, till they have the final inspection.

One of my twitter .. lets call him Marty - posted 'Game Abandoned - more to follow'.

Almost instantly, £20k appeared wanting to back No game, at 1.01. Even sleep deprived (this was in the wee hrs), I had to lay my share, and took profits, when people realised, this was a pretty big mistake, by someone.

The game was finally called off, 45 mins later ..

The point I am trying to make .. is that, my using Time, to look at Social Media, is both good and bad. Its a balance. You will win some, lose some. Maybe refinement of the followers, and heavy diltuion of what some people say, is part of the process, to what it takes to win .. but, thats the game.

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

Apple Update - Lost again ..

The YOLO (You only live once) .. am I the only one, who has to google what these newer acronyms mean ?, wasnt a spectacular fail, but, a fail never the less.

The live results conference call, was hosted on Youtube, by our friend the Wolf .. who appears to have a  Canadian accent, and gathered 14k viewers.

It was almost certainly a demo account .. If he was getting a kick-back, from spread companies, who make money, on the bid/ask spread, I would be impressed.

In researching this short, there are other funny videos on youtube .. from -- supposed ex-employees, making fun at the design of Apple products. It does make sense, but, maybe, with the fires from rival competitors, now, was not the best time to short. Ipad sales are off .. and likely to stay low .. maybe next time :