Thursday, 28 March 2013

Fast pictures .. but, no guarantee ..

People, who should know better, often moan, fast pictures produce too great an edge, for some exchange players ..

That debateable ..

In this race, they would have done their bollox ..!

Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Never Look Back ..

I really fancied the Titans to beat the Knights yesterday, and 1.65 that was available at the local bookies, seemed v generous, (not to mention the 1.80 on Betfair - thank-you),.

To get on, without the price collapsing (in a v thin mkt), I went on a bookie road-trip .. the first I had taken, for a very long time.

In all, I visted 5 shops .. and was absolutely stunned, at how they have changed.

15 yrs ago, I held 4 licences, and sold them .. for an equivalent £7000.

Today, at each location, they have queues at lunch-time, taking bets from locals, mainly on soccer, which has become the local lottery. The bets taken, are not big .. maybe an average £2 per stake, but, the volume/profit margin is unreal ..

If I had those licences today, they would be worth £1m.


(( I should say, in the interim 15 yrs .. 4 of my former colleagues have either committed suicide, or been gunned down, at work .. so, its not a total picnic ))

Monday, 25 March 2013

Weather Watching Shares

Sad weather watchers like me, use many tools, to try and get info, which may or may not, lead to an edge, which also, may or may not, lead to profits.

Its not clear cut .. weather never usually is .. thou, some days, its easier than others.

Remind me one day, to tell the story, of the last day - SA v Aus, Wanderers 2011.

Anyway .. Betfair, have live video from some cricket grounds, and when TV goes off, saddos can often be found glued to it.

About a yr ago, I got interested in a company called Perform Group Ltd, who supply video feeds on certain sports, as well as in-running data.

Here is their chart .. from IG Index.

They have had a spectacular run .. and I cant help feeling, Betfair should have bought this company, rather than wasted .. on LMAX.

** Disclaimer **

I hold shares in Perform .. I sold all my holdings in Betfair, last yr.

Friday, 22 March 2013

If u won the Lottery ..

I was watching the domestic T20 game, between the Titans and Dolphins, blissfully winding up the @sunfoildolphins tweeter, who, has a hard job, tweeting good stuff, as the side is pretty crap, when I came across a link, to an article written in The Econmist, about Lottery winners.

Before I address that, I have to say, how much fun twitter is.

Part of the bliss, is that, when u use a #, with a name, like #sunfoildolphins, everyone, can see that tweet, if they perform a random search, on #sunfoildolphins.

This is great, as, although someone can block, other tweeters, they cannot block #, so, your comments will be seen everywhere.

I have travelled, often many hundreds of miles, to watch these games, and if I feel a player is under-performing, will target the sides tweeter, to complain.

They can do nothing, and usually, do not fight back.

Its great fun.

Anyway, the lottery ..

It appears, Britons are a nation of lottery lovers, but, pretty stupid (in general), about the way they play.

The chance of winning, is about 1 in 14 million, and if I won, I would like to think, I could not have to work for a few years.

Some 10,000 people each week, play the numbers, 1,2,3,4,5,6.

If this was to hit .. they would win .. £700 each .. pretty sad.

Low numbers generally, should be avoided, as people often use birthdays etc .. Most people would be better off, turning the lottery ticket upside down, and then picking numbers.

Oddities do occur .. I recall, in 2010, the Israeli National lottery, pulled the same 6 numbers, twice in a month. Because, there was a different 'powerball' number, winners, got paid big, each time .. but, the odds of those 6 numbers hitting, twice, are something like .. 1 in 4 trillion .. something akin, to finding life on Mars.

Wednesday, 20 March 2013

Hands I have butchered ..

Wed tourny, $75, but, heart not really in it, as have a flight at 6am, and, this would go on to, 3am.

So a decent excuse .. and played a few hands, v differently than normal.

One worked out really well, but, another .. am not so sure.

Early on, after the re-buy period, Blinds 300/600, I have 12k chips.

Pick up, A ♦ A ♠ in early position, and flat call ..

One mid table, flat caller, and small blind also completes. So, 4 people see a flop of :

2 ♣ 2 ♦ 8♣

I check, and small blind bets, 1100.

I re-raise, to 4500, and he calls, pretty quickly. Now, I suppose he can have a 2 .. but, why bet the 1100.

Anyway, turn is 10 ♣

I check, and he bets, 2500 .. and I have lost the plot. I havent played with this guy before, and, the only hands he has shown, (being fairly inactive, hes had it).

To try and get a read, I ask him, will he show, if he folds, and he shrugs.

I have no idea why, but I fold ..

He shows, 8 ♦, and hides the other card.

I get knocked out, 15 mins later, and went home to sleep .. but, reviewing the hand, I think, I made quintuple errors, and its not good.

I hope he had 8 ♦ 8 ♠, but, its v likely he had 8 ♦ A ♦, or some such, maybe 8♦ A ♣, for a flush draw.

Anyway, I didnt shine.

Backing of Players

For some time, it has been 'normal' within the poker community, for players to sell pieces of themselves, for certain high-stake tournys.

For example, for a $10000 buy-in event, a player may sell 50% of himself, normally, at a small mark-up .. to cover his/her experience/expenses.

If they guy wins, or cashes, u get a share of the win, depending on how much u have bought.

I have never backed anyone in the US .. thou have backed in the UK, so, have no idea, what the tax rules are for the US.

A poker site has just been created,

which now does this, thru a website ..

I wouldnt be interested, just yet, but can see a day, when professional gamblers are backed .. thou, transparency, is a MAJOR problem.

Handle with care ..


This is not a culinary blog .. thou, the Singapore Fried rice, from a certain chinese restaurant, would win all my personal awards.

Whilst in NZ last yr, one of the biggest talking points, on local radio, was the non-availability of Marmite, following the earth-quake in Christchurch.

Things must be getting back to normal (its still raining), as Marmite has returned to the shelves, thou, rationing, is apparently, in place.

The customs officials, are especially vigilant, so, this is a right result, for some .. I cant say more.

I do miss those talk shows, and the soapie on TV, following the gangs of professional sheep shearers .. its oddly addictive.

Debts etc

Been a busy few days, with the cricket, and managed to come 10th in the Monday tourny, thou my heart wasnt really in it.

Had my share of 'run-good', and some enjoyable verbal sparing with my nemesis, (who came 8th), but, with the cricket workload, going thru the nite .. at one stage, u could watch 23 hrs of cricket on sky, back to back, its too much, for an oldie.

In the last few days, the Gambling Commission have suspended the Gambling licence for,

which, I hope, is just a temporary set-back for them .. as, they seemed good people, and money on desposit appears to be safe .. unlike other companies, which went bang, and didnt pay.

I am in the process of moving, and went thru some old papers, which really should have been thrown out, years ago.

Some memories were revived, when I found an uncashed cheque, for £2000, from someone, who has now died of cancer. He has a brother, (who also owes me money) .. but thats another story.

I never really expected to get paid .. from either .. they were friends or associates, who, asked, and when u are flush, its really hard to say no.

Gambling debts are always troublesome .. and there are often, more than 3 sides to a story.

I remember reading the autobiographies of both Kerry Packer (once, the richest guy in Australia), and Bill Waterhouse (the Biggest Bookie in Aus) .. and, how disputes arose, and were maybe settled .. I suspect, only they will know. If you are a bookie, its often said u have to win twice .. beat the horse, and then get paid .. and, its v true.

As a further digression, a favourite story about Kerry Packer :

Before he sold his corporate empire, on a Saturday, when he went racing, he had a personal limit, of how much he could lose .. $1m, after he sold, he had no limit (Aussie bookies pay a % of hold, so, he could only lose what bets they would accept), but, this limit would have been .. say $20m.

Anyway, this was before, and went racing to his local Sydney track ..Randwick.

He had a bad day, and by the 5th race, has lost his $1m, so, called his driver, to take him home.

Kerry was a big framed guy .. whose staple diet was hamburgers and milkshakes .. and on his way home, no doubt mulling over the day, asked his driver to stop at a deli, so he could get a sandwich.

Now in Aus, there are lots of take-aways .. but, he happened to find one, that was just closing - but, he barged in the door.

The manager, politely told Kerry .. we are closing .. but, Kerry insisted, and asked for a chicken sandwich, .. which would have been easy enough to prepare, as the ingredients were not yet packed away.

For some reason, the manger and Kerry, had an argument, and the manger, told him to go next door .. literally, and finally, Kerry acquiesced, and did just that.

Next door, he gets his chicken sandwich, and pays the guy, $10,000. The guy, not unnaturally, says, "whats this for" ? ..

Kerry says .. "Just do me a favour : Tell the guy next door, what I paid you, for a chicken sandwich"

Saturday, 16 March 2013

Not Another Draw ...

Test match cricket, is made 'watchable' by some, for the betting interest, derived by the amount of time that can be lost, due to weather factors.

Normally, a Test consists of 90 overs per day, - so, 5 days, makes 450 overs.

Most games, these days, tend to see results in under 400 overs, (just why that is, is debatable), but, its a happy trend, if you like to watch the weather, and are happy, most days will be interruption free.

(Some days, u get a Get-Out-Of-Jail free card, as time can be made up, with early starts/late finishes, but, this naturally, depends on the weather).

Last yr, there were 57 Tests, with, from memory - 11 draws, of which, only 3, were non rain affected.

So, habitual draw layers, who, laid, with gay abandon, as low as an average 2/1 each game, were certainly, in the money.

This year, all was going swimmingly, with the 1st 10 games, all getting results (not a draw).

Then, the shit has hit the collective fan, with drawn games, in the last few weeks :

Eng v India .. Nagpur   ... 17/12/2012

Eng v N.Zealand  .. Dunedin  .. 10/3/2013

Sri Lanka v Bangladesh .. Galle  .. 12/3/2013

and 2 games, looking Drawish on the way, at

Eng v N.Zealand .. Wellington   .. 17/3/2013

India v Australia  .. Mohali   .. 18/3/2013

The volatilty in these games, can be mind-boggling .. u need a v strong stomach, and weather info.


Case in point .. the 4th Day, at Wellington.

Draw crashed to 1.4 pre-play, they actually get some play, and Draw goes odds against.

Meanders around a bit, then Eng get a wkt, and Mr Draw goes 2.3 or so.

Flat pitch (as tweeted, many times, and mizzle/rain comes).

2 hrs later, Mr Draw 1.28, which is a great price ...

2nd ODI - S.Africa v Pakistan - Centurion

This game, highlighted just how important it is, to know the ground.

Weather has been around, but, not for long spells, and despite rain/thunder only being forecast to arrive at about 8pm local, it came far earlier, and disrupted the game for 2.30 hrs.

The Completed Match Market (CMM), saw a lot of activity, and, novices, easily got misled, by .. The amount of rain that fell, and the overhead conditions.

Here are pics, in time order .


As the rain had hit.

Clearing in the distance .. Yet, you could back game, (Yes), at about 1.6.

Dark clouds to the west .. But, they were .. Probably .. Moving away.

Clean-up started .. Yes, still available at 1.4 or so.

44 over a side game .. No more rain, and, for experienced weather watchers, almost free money.


There are a lot of similarities, to the Test in New Zealand. Weather patterns, do tend to repeat.

I am heavily on Mr Draw .. and think, its a racing certainty (currently 1.35, from (madness .. 1.8) or so, at close of play.

Good luck with your positions  ..  and take a brolly.

Thursday, 14 March 2013

3rd Test - India v Australia - Mohali - Day 1

Aussie with a few players missing, following some rifts in the camp.

Pre-toss :

India 2.3

Aus 7.0

Draw 2.4

At least, thats what it was, a few days before, but, steady rain, in the lead-up, gave draw backers considerable heart.

Day 1, was eventually lost, without a ball bowled :

India 3.55

Aus 12.5

Draw 1.56

Much more rain, and Draw backers in clover.

Mr Grumpy

Ok, go get a coffee .. this is a long story  ..  I will wait for u.

Was busy trading Day 2 at Cheltenham, but, decided to miss the last race, in favour of going to my local casino's regular  Wednesday poker tournament.

Got there, just in time for the 7.30pm registration, and noticed that of the 60 or so players, a few superstars were missing .. so, felt it was a good omen.

Feel my game is pretty sharp right now, but, I suppose all players do .. and blame variance on bad runs.

Anyway, get a v tough table draw .. 6 of the 9 are decent, with 2 unknowns.

8000 chip stacks, initial blinds 25/50 .. one re-buy, in first 40 mins .. $125 to enter.

Almost immediately, I get involved with :

6 ♦ 7 ♦

on the button.

2 away from me raises, 3x, and I call.

Flop comes :

8♦ 5♦ 6♥

Thats a pretty good flop for me .. no shit sherlock .. and it ends up, all going in the middle, as he has

6 ♣ 5♥

I hit, the 4 ♦ on the turn, and double up.

A few hands later, I am playing a tough pro, who mainly plays cash, and likes to gamble with me ..

I have 9 ♣ J ♣ and call his raise, of 4x.

Flop comes :

J ♦ J ♥ 10 ♠

As its the sort of board, he knows I can have/or will bluff at, I bet 65% of the pot, he shoves, and I call.

He has : A ♦ A ♠   .. thats ok, am monster fav, but, he catches A ♣ on the turn .. FUCK !! and cripples me, down to below avg stack.

Mentally, thats tough. Especially, when its a guy, who has beaten you in pots, probably 8 of 9 times, in the last 3 mths, when I am normally at least 60/40 fav.

Anyway, didnt go on tilt ..

I nick a few blinds here and there, and re-build my stack, with small pots, when I get involved, with the same pro, with :

J ♦ 10 ♦

Blinds are now 100/200, and I have 6000 chips. I am in late position, so, raise to 700, he calls.

Flop is Q ♣ 8♣ 5♦

I check, he checks.

Turn is 9 ♣ .. giving me the nut straight, but, am losing to a flush. He shoves.

Thats not an easy call .. but, finally make it, and he has :

K ♠ K ♦

and win the pot/knock him out.

This is all fine, but, the dynamic of the table then changes, as 4 new people come to the table, who are all 'buddies'. They dont soft play each other, so, its ok - but, they do talk during hands.

The card room management is v poor .. and tonite, it was especially poor, as the usual guy was off.

Almost right away, 2 of the buddies got involved in a hand, and they basically talk to each other, during the hand .. which is sometimes fun, but, can create friction, when one guy, talks his 'buddy' off a hand.

Anyway, I am staying out of it, but, finally cant resist, and target - who I thought was the weaker of the 4.

I have 3 ♠ 5 ♠ .. not great, but call his raise.

Flop is 6 ♦ 7♦ 10 ♠ .. so have quite well concealed .. crap .. really.

We both check, turn is 5 ♥, so I bet ..he calls, after a deep think.

I take this deep think as weakness, and after a blank hits the river, shove all in .. I had him covered.

At this point, hes thinking, (no one is talking), but, after a good while, he calls. I throw my cards in the muck, and he says to the dealer, he wants to see them.

I say, he cant .. I have mucked, and he says he has paid to see.

Now, I understand his point .. a bit, as I could be chip dumping, but in most places, if u just chuck your cards in .. they stay concealed.

He was quite a big guy, and grabs the cards, turning them over.

I dont like this, and call for the card room manager, who is useless, and doesnt know if the cards should be exposed or not .. I just leave it, .. hes won the hand, and 2 or 3 hands later, the guy comes over, and shakes my hand, saying 'No hard feelings' .. which I suppose, is fair enough.

So, its already been a 'tough' nite, and have a headache.

20 mins later, I have about 25k in chips, and the blinds are 300/600.

One of the 'merry/drunk' brothers is small blind, 'muscles' is big blind.

I have A ♦ K ♣ in late position.

I raise to 3000. The 'merry' brother calls, puts his 3000 chips in the middle, at which point, 'muscles; says, 'All-in'. Brother, says, 'Oh Shit', grabs his 3000 chips back, and puts his cards, face down, in the middle of the table ..  what the fuck !!

His brother, rightly says, u cant do that, and the small blind brother, grabs his cards back.

After some debate, he puts the 3000 in, and I decide to call the extra 7000 - all-in, from 'muscles'.

Back to the 'merry' brother .. and hes talking aloud, what to do. His brother says, 'U should call' - and, even thou hes not involved in the hand, I say nothing. After a good while, he puts the 7000 in, and now, both me and 'muscles' are not happy.

Before it goes any further, I ask for a ruling, as to whether, he should be allowed to retrieve his cards etc, from the middle of the table .. Card management .. say, its ok, he can do what he wants !! but, eventually, decides to fold.

'muscles' has Q ♦ Q ♠ .. about what I expected, but I hit my K, and win the pot, knocking him out.

So, its a fun table .. and my head is throbbing ..

I get moved .. YES !!, to a weak table, and a novice gives me 27k in chips, when he shoves with

K ♦ K ♠

on a board of

A ♣ 7 ♠ 8♦   ..   I have A ♥ K♥, so its an easy call, and as I say, he just gave me the chips.

There are now 11 players left, I lose some chips .. but have 55k, of the 475k in play.

We get down to 10, and a final table is called.

We move to the table, draw for seats, and someones asks for 5 mins break .. even thou, we had a break, 20 mins earlier. Everyone says ok .. and I wander off, to get a coffee.

This takes longer than it should, and am back, after maybe 7 mins .. and they have started, with me losing a small/big blind, of a total of 3000 chips.

I say .. whats going on ? No one tried to call me etc .. but these are poker players, .. its mid-nite, and even thou, I have often waited for players, and wont start a final table, till everyone is present, they basically say, 'tough shit'.

I declare to the table .. Fine .. 'No Deals' .. we will play till 4 in the morning, and slow play my hands, for the next hour - taking a minute to even look at my cards.

This naturally, amuses some/pisses off others, but, they can do nothing, and the card manager has little idea, when/if he can call a clock ..

Anyway, the tourny paid down to 7 players, and 'No deals' no one talks to me.

2 get knocked out, so .. the virtual bubble is created, when, the same guy, who asked for a deal, 2 weeks earlier, and I have said no to, re-raises my 9000 chip raise - all-in.

I have 40k chips .. to call, was 27k more .. and I have A ♦ J ♠.

Thats probably not winning, normally he plays solid, but, even thou I knew, I was probably behind, I call.

He has A ♣ K ♠ .. so, am dominated, in a v poor spot, and everyone is licking their lips.

The flop comes :

J ♦ J ♥ 10 ♦  .. Yeah baby !!, and he goes ballistic. Which is fair enough. He doesnt find the Q for a straight, so he goes out the door, with some loud expletives, more about how bad he runs, than my shit play.

I am now, 2nd in chips, there are 6 left, and I am a good thing to win.

I rob the table blind .. still didnt see a premium pair .. just had the 3  x A K all night, and we get down to 3, at which point, I suggest a deal, and we each get $1100 each.

This story, isnt over yet.

Last week, when I won, the guy in 5th place, was stopped by Police, at the first traffic light outside, and basically had to give him his money.

I went to my car, hid $1000, and left $100 in my pocket.

At the same traffic light, the cops are there again, and I get pulled over. The talk starts, I say, I have $100, can I give u $40, and he says, sure.

Not happy about the robbery .. but, realistically, will let it slide.

Wednesday, 13 March 2013

2nd Test - N.Zealand v England - Wellington - Preview

The basin reserve is an odd ground, and one I have also spent many happy days, watching it rain.

I recall last yrs, N.Z v S.Africa test .. it absolutely bucketed down, especially on the Sat (day 3), so bad, they hadn't even opened the grandstand, when I wanted to take my seat.

An umpire, who was on his way to the box, where they have their cuppa etc, saw me all alone in the stand, came over, and said .. u can probably go home, this should be called off soon ... 3 hrs later, they were playing ..

Anyway, the forecast for days 4/5 is really bad, for this test, so, we shall tread carefully.

Pre-toss prices

NZ  8.0

Eng .1.85

Draw 2.96


Maybe meaningless stats :

Barcelona have played 3 times, during a Papal conclave .. they have always won 4-0 ..

There has been only 1 result, in the 6 tests, after a Papal conclave.

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

Casino Statistics - 2

Back in Dec, I happened to come across the Casino 'Drop' figures, as prepared by the Gambling Commission :

There was - what I thought, was an anomaly, in that the High End London, House win %, was in the order of 8%, as compared to a country average, of about 16%.

The report has now been produced, for Dec .. and its v similar.

Maybe, I mis-read the report, but, its a rolling yr figure .. they report on the period from Jan 12 to Dec 12 ..

Anyway, the 6 casinos, that operate as 'High End London', are obviously doing something different, to the rest of the country. Maybe .. its the influence of high-rollers, playing baccarat .. which maybe has a lower house retention/edge ..

If anyone wants to share a view, I would be interested.

I am sorta thinking, maybe 'money-laundering' is going on .. maybe .. but, surely, the Gambling Commission would be aware/investigate etc ?

Monday, 11 March 2013

1st Test - Sri Lanka v Bangladesh - Galle - Day 3/4

Well, this is a right stuff-up.

Almost no rain has fallen, but, sides have scored runs, far, far higher than their expectancy, and the draw looks a virtual certainity.

It was reasonable to think Sl would score 500, but for Bangladesh to score 600, is dream-land, and not pleasant, if u have a lump on Sl.

Done plenty, and its been a shitty weekend ..(S.Africa train, when largely supporting Pakistan, didnt help)

Saturday, 9 March 2013

1st Test - N.Zealand v England - Dunedin -Day 5

Hopefully, it will be a dull day, where Eng bat, probably all day, and l the game fizzles out to a draw.

Not sure if weather will matter, but, right now, the forecast is ok.

England did well, to bat, to a secure position, and it has salvaged my book.

5 days - of all nighters, to lose money - serious money - or not, is no fun ..and I am sure, there will be some books out there, nursing losses. For traders, this sometimes, just can't be avoided, and this Test was unusual, to see England collapse so badly on Day 2, and then bat so well, on Day 4.

I wouldn't be too hard on yourself, if you are looking at a red screen.


1st Test - Sri Lanka v Bangladesh - Galle - Day 2

Have mostly lost interest with this, as its a mis-match, just a weather bet.

Sri Lanka score 570-4 and declare .. there is rain about, which spooks the mkt, but, u have to think there will be more than enough play, for a positive result for Sri Lanka.

I have a lump and leave position with Sri Lanka, at 1.76 avg (after some trading), and am happy.

Bang currently 64-1 in reply, 19 overs left, on Day 2.

Friday, 8 March 2013

1st Test - N.Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 4

Moving Day !!

NZ still batting, (maybe), lead by 235 runs, with 2 days, and 190 overs or so.

Looks clear weather, for most of today .. prices haves settled :

NZ 2.06

Eng 60

Draw 1.98

I am with the draw, by force, more than anything else.

I think its a toss-up, and will be looking to lay the draw, should it go 1.8x.

Ugly book ..


Mcullum decides not to declare,and go for quick runs, this morning.

So far, thats working .. poor line bowling from Eng ..

NZ finally declare, 9 down, 293 ahead .. a quick 58 runs for them (in 9 overs)

Absolute toss-up, with Eng 100 chances.

If the new ball doesnt get wkts, expect Draw train to gather some steam ..

Comedy green on Eng still ..

India not covering todays play, so, draw 'alledgedly' holding up, longer.

But, pitch seems v slow .. maybe its the cold, but it was the same last March, and will probably be the same, when/if India play there, next March.

Eng 36-0

Eng 2.44

Eng 65

Draw 1.72

Book can now see the tunnel ..

Ok, so lunch ... an odd fact, at the start of the session, Eng were 235 behind, and NZ needed 10 wkts.

At the end of the session, Eng are 235 behind, and NZ need 10 wkts !!

NZ 2.84

Eng 50  ..  my average is 600

Draw 1.58


I think Eng will win ..cant have NZ on my mind - its draw or Eng.


A few overs after lunch, Eng 82-0.

NZ 3.85

Eng 44

Draw 1.38

Tunnel located, and light shining on a green book.

Holding out for retirement.

Thursday, 7 March 2013

1st Test - Sri Lanka v Bangladesh - Galle - Day 1

Drama, in the lead up, as Sri Lankan authorities have little money, and negotiations between players union, and the board, didn't go well.

Eventually, the players signed .. But, suppose, there is bad feeling, all around.

Money in Sri Lanka is scarce .. It's hard for Europeans to understand, just how poor some countries are - not, that that's always terminal - it's just a different situation.

It came home best to me, during the T20 World Cup, when, tickets selling at $0.25, were unsold, for many games .. And not just the crappy ones.


The game is being played at Galle, and, it's almost always wet. Having said that, they tend to get results there, as its a low scoring ground.

Of the 21 times, there have been Tests at Galle, 5 games were drawn.

I make it, the sides have played each other 12 times : Sri Lanka have won every time, 7 times, inflicting an innings defeat.


Sri Lanka 1.52
Bangladesh 10
Draw 3.7

You would have to factor, a lot of rain, for the draw to be a runner.


Am heavily with SL.

They win the toss, and rain keeps off. Topped up, at 1.6x .. unreal price.

Currently, 336-3 after 81 overs .. rain never came.

SL 1.3  .. still a fair price

Bang 100  .. hard to see them winning this

Draw 4.4  .. need a lotta rain

1st Test - New Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 3

So, the mighty England (who I think I heard Michael Atherton, say, have a budget of £30m a yr, need to dig deep, to fight off, some well less funded 'minnows')

N.Zealand at odds-on, can hardly be anyones cup of tea .. but, its probably right.

However, having laid most prices, from 9 down to evens, its a decent chance to average out.

My book, is not one, everyone would want,, and comes under the 'Dont try this at home' warming.

Roughly :


NZ    -245 units  (units are not whole numbers)

Eng  + 780 units

Draw + 75 units


Something to watch.


2 hours before a start, and money has come for the draw :

NZ  2.02

Eng 16

Draw 2.24

Might be a new forecast ..


15 mins to start of play .. think Draw will be fav, by Lunch .. lets see.


A few overs in, NZ score a few, and

NZ 2.38

Eng 20

Draw 1.9

Yes 1.9 ....

Blog readers, should have traded well ..

Exceptional 100 for Debutant Ruthorford .. must be a real thrill.

Mkt is fun to trade .. have it on a rope right now, and, thou my position is not ideal, have a feeling, I will have a v big win .. we shall see ..


NZ get to 402-7, before play is called, due to bad light rain.

They are 235 ahead, with 2 days play of scheduled time left.

Even without rain interuptions, Eng prob need to bat, for 4+ sessions .. similar to what S.Africa did last yr, when they were rolled in the 1st dig fr 200, but scored 400, second time rouund.

NZ  2.52

Eng 50

Draw 1.70


Still have precarious position, thou have traded it better .. may escape financial harm.


Strill drizzle in Dunedin .. pitch may require a little prep in the morning.

NZ  2.16

Eng  60

Draw 1.92

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

1st Test - New Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 2

Very fresh early on, but some definite blue sky, and no reason not to think, they will get 90+ overs in today.

The forecasts, for Saturday in particular, are a little more mixed, but, I think we can expect, maybe 350 overs, in this test match, if they are required.

The ground appears to have drained ok.

Early on :

NZ  9  (has to drift, quickly)

Eng 3.1

Draw 1.70

I laid a lot of 1.70 - 1.72, early, and as play started, it went out to 1.80.

Ball doesn't really appear to be doing that much, and think Eng will score plenty (run line about 395), and am anxious not to be against the draw .. I think it has room, to go much lower.

Eng 19-3

NZ 6.2

Eng 3.1

Draw 1.92

All 3 prices are interesting ..

Drinks : Eng 35-3

NZ 7.8

Eng 3.15

Draw 1.78

Draw looks short enough, but cant back Eng at 3.15, and cant fancy NZ, fullstop.

Sit on hands time.

Just before Lunch, Eng 71-5 .. looking rusty, as its not that sorta pitch.

NZ  4.0

Eng 3.6

Draw 2.08

Given the draw was 1.70 before play, 2.1 seems just daft .. with blue skies etc.

Am laying draw - run spread now .. 234

Will catch a few hrs sleep, and may come back, after Tea.


Am I still dreaming ?

The mighty England score 167, and NZ are 68-0, blue sunshine, with 20 odd overs left in the day.

NZ 2.08

Eng 8.4

Draw 2.44

Am against Draw, and have comedy green on Eng .. level on NZ .. would like to see some wkts.



NZ 131-0 ...

NZ 1.94

Eng 18.5

Draw 2.3

Have some problems with my book here, but, I wouldnt neccesarily blame myself, as its a rare occurence for Eng to get rolled for 160 in a day, and then concede 130 for 0.

Not sure of a way forward .. if there is one ..  will give it some thought.

1st Test - N.Zealand v England - Dunedin - Day 1

Ahh, Dunedin .. a favourite location of mine - especially if u want to watch it rain.

I spent many happy hours, during the N.Zealand v S.Africa test, watching the birds gather on the wet outfield  .. bliss.

As an aside .. a 5 day ticket/pass for the test last yr .. was $50, this yr, as England are in town, it a great deal  more .. that's a bit naughty.

N.Zealand in March, can be a very wet place .. this yr, its been far hotter, but, as luck would have it, it rained most of the 1st day, and no play was possible.

In part, that due to the outfield/ground, not having world class drainage .. its a university ground, after all.

Pre-game, Eng were 1.68 or so favs, but, now the 1st day has been 'lost' .. 8 overs a day can probably be made up, if light/weather allows, they have drifted to 3.05.

A result might be possible, but, once the rain started, having spent so much time there, I stocked up heavily on the draw, and have a v nice book.

Will re-assess, before play, on Day 2.

Anyone stuck there, could spend some time, going to the Bird Sanctuaries .. they v good.

There are a lot of people, far away from the location, asking for weather info. I try to give my honest opinion, and generally use this opinion, to make, money.

I take offence at people misconstruing the odd post .. on Sunday, I posted tweets about the ODI, which were 100% accurate, and mostly, all I get is flak.

I will block, on twitter, anyone having the slightest dig .. I just dont need it.

Tuesday, 5 March 2013

A day off .. But we are all addicts

Got to bed, at about 3am, following the Poker, and woke up at 6.30 or so,to check the cricket .. Aus had done the decent thing, and folded, so, went back to bed.

Got up at 11.30, and saw Oscar winner - Best Movie - Argo - was on as 11.45.

Rushed to the cinema, and they squeezed me in (I was the only person watching).

It's highly recommended.


Finished about 2pm, just as the afternoons cash poker starts .. So, would be rude not to have a look, and see whose playing.

Of the 6 or so people, 4 were regs, but, 1 was unknown, so, I sat down, with £150.

It was made into a very loose game, by this unknown (at least to me) - who it turns out, was a whale, taking time off from the Salon Prive.

He raised every hand .. Not much caring about pot odds example.

I had A♣ K♦

2 doors away, had K♥ K♠

Next to him, had Q♣ Q♠

The whale had 10♥ 3♦

Not the best ..but a pot, of about £800 was created, and he called, for £200,pre-flop.

I missed my A for a great pay-day, but, re-loaded.


It was an action table, and he quickly went thru £2k, - pocket change - unfortunately, only a little to me.

Then, this hand comes along.

I have a stack of about £400, a new guy has joined the table - not a reg, but be hasn't played much.

I have Q♠ Q♣

Blinds are £1/£2, whale makes normal raise to £10. I flat call, just for a change, and the new guy, bets £35. Everyone folds to me, and I just call.

Flop comes 10♠ 6♣ 4♥

Not a bad flop for me, but check. Other guy,bets £50, I raise to £135, and he shoves.

I can call for £200 more, or fold.

I do smell a rat, but, figure he can have A 10, and folding, would be too weak.

So call.

He turns over, a hand that has bugged me for the last 2 mths - 10♥ 10♦

I am dead,to 2 outs, but, the miracle Q♥ comes on the turn !!

So I get the money, and figure some poker run good, has come my way.


Monday, 4 March 2013

Monday, Poker Tourney

I play in 3 regular Tourneys each week :

Monday - £50 freeze out - 55 players - social, but still a fair level - only 5000 starting chips

Wednesday - £80 - 1 re-buy, up to 1st level - v strong players - 8000 starting chips

Sunday - £110 - 1 re-buy, up to 1st level - v strong players - 10000 starting chips

Of the 3, Monday is by far the weakest, as some of the top players, dont enter.

Last night, I had a decent table draw early, with just 1 good player, and 5 social ones.

The good player, is my absolute nemesis, and he must have knocked me out of more Tourneys, than just about anyone else.

We play each other strongly, and even thou, we know the fish are to be targeted, dont shy away from a fight.

Fortunately, he was card dead early, and I was able to catch him with a weak stack, on a semi-bluff, with pocket Q, when he had 10♥ 7♥ .. my cards held up, and knocked him out.

From that point, even thou there was 45 people left, I would have priced myself, 4/1 to win the whole thing.

I had one of the softest tables, I have ever been at .. raising decent blinds, 7 times in a row, and never getting played back at .. so, destroyed that table, and got moved to another, with 27 players left, and me on a stack of about 45k - Total chips in play - 275k.

1st hand at the new table, I have a lady on my left, I have never played with before.

She has 15k in chips.

I raise under the gun, with 6♥ 3♥

Blinds were, 200/400, so I raise to 1000.

She calls.

Everyone else folds, and flop comes 8♣ 4♠ 2♦

She bets, 2000, and I call.

Turn comes, 8♦

I shove, all-in, and she has a small think, and folds. I show her the bluff, and establish myself, again, as the table bully.

With about 20 players left, I pick up a nice hand, of K♣ J♣

There were some shorts stacks, and basically, a 25k pot, plus side pots, is established, between 5 players.

The other 5 players had : A♠ 10♥ - 4♣ 4♥ - 9♦ 9♠ - 7♥ 8♦

So, a fair selection to dodge, but, I hit my K, and knock-out 3 more.

From there, I have 75k in chips, and wait for the blinds to start eating away, at the short-stacks, before bullying some more.

A final table is established, and I really like my chances.

4 players left, there is just 1 player, who has a slightly smaller stack than me, the other 2, hanging on.

They ask for a deal, and I am not interested .. it was late, but, the deal they want, is too much, given their stacks, and the other big stack and I, just pick them off.

So, its heads up, for £800 1st prize, £600 2nd.

Its about 2.30am, and, after 10 or so hands, we just decide to split everything.

Am knackered, but Tuesday is a soft day, (especially as Aus are getting rolled, by India), so, can sleep late.

Nice to win .. saw pocket Q twice, and pocket K, once .. at some tables, u just dont need cards.

The Draw

In the 2011-12 season, I make it there were 10 draws. from 41 games.

U would think there would be more .. shows, the impact of pyjama cricket.

5 of those, involved S.Africa, but it wasnt just Smith being negative (hes becoming more daring, with his declarations - it was largely the rain)

So, a draw does occur, roughly 1 in every 4 games.

Drawn games, were :

RSA v NZ - Wellington .. wet

RSA v NZ - Dunedin  .. wet

WI v Aus - Port of Spain .. wet

WI v Eng - Edgbaston .. Mega wet

SL v Pak - Colombo - wet

SL v Pak - Palekele- Day 2 lost - wet

RSA v Eng - Headingley - wet

RSA v Aus - Gabba - Day 2 lost

RSA v Aus - Adelaide - non rain affected, draw

Eng v Ind - Nagpur - non rain affected draw

So far, in 2013, we have had 7 tests, with no draws.

One must be due soon.

Poker losing Market Share/Popularity

An excellent piece, by The Age :

Basically, 8 poker rooms hav closed in Vegas, in the last 2 yrs.

Its not the 'Must Have' for a casino, that it once was.

Sunday, 3 March 2013

2nd T20 - S.Africa v Pakistan - Centurion


Short boundaries ..

Pakistan win the toss and bat.

S.Africa 1.66. Looks v short to me.


S.African bowlers .. Tsotsobe, Peterson, Kleinveldt, Abbott,Morris.

Morris got big IPL contract, lets see how he handles the pressure.


S.African batters, ABD, David's,Faff, Ontong, Behardien.


Hardly strikes fear into anyone's heart.


Wow .. Pakistan score almost 200, and rout S.Africa.

I was v busy trading this game, and called it almost perfect. are a v average T20 side, and only a little better, as an ODI side.

The prices were wrong, at least IMHO, and took advantage.


Friday, 1 March 2013

Wet T20 Durban

Doesn't look promising ..

90 mins before start ..

1 poor super sopper, and fine to heavy non-stop rain, meant this game was doomed from v early on.

Umpires came out, but, u get he feeling, it's for PR only.

Game thankfully called off, 2 hrs before final cut-off, as field would have been impossible to get right.

2nd game of the series, is in Pretoria on Sunday .. Lets hope the rain, doesn't get there.