SA 2.2
Eng 2.84
Draw 5.0
My Book :
S.Africa -£800
England +£14200
Draw -£12000
Equity -- +£2200
Lets think about this : S.Africa are 166 behind, with 6 wkts left. Run lines make them likely to get 310.
There are 298 overs left in game, time allowing. Weather seems ok.
If Eng go back in to bat, say, an hr after lunch, their run line will prob be about 275 (maybe less).
Its clear, Draw at 5.0 is barking, but so, is SA at 2.2.
If I wasn't constraining my exposure to £20k, I would lay another chunk of the draw.
I make the betting, something like :
S.Africa 2.5
England 2.4
Draw 8,0
So, have not changed the basic flavour of my book, if anything, added to Eng.
Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.
Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve, and an auto lay, going forward.
Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.
Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve, and an auto lay, going forward.
6am Local .. Day 3
I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.
Mkt now :
S.Africa 2.36
England 2.50
Draw 5.7
At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200
Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :
Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500
Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day
SA 2.56
Eng 2.00
Draw 8
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Wkt - Duminy 152-6
Sa 3.1
Eng 1.8
Draw 8
Wkt - Abbot 156-7
SA 3
Eng 1.72
Draw 9.4
All good -- at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.
Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.
SA 3.45
Eng1.69
Draw 8.2
Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up
current book
SA win +£3100
Eng win +£7200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £3700
Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.
SA 200-7
SA 2.58
Eng 2.1
Draw 7.2
SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.
Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8
SA 2.84
Eng 1.81
Draw 9
SA 214 all out
Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.
Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.
SA 3.3
Eng 1.64
Draw 11 ????? ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.
Equity in book, £5200
England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.
Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.
SA .6
Eng 1.59
Draw 5.1
Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102
SA 3.4
Eng 1.75
Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)
Trade - back draw 6000/1000
Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.
Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.
Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.
(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)
Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.
SA 3.55
Eng 1.7
Draw 7.2
Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.
Book now :
SA win +£2100
Eng win +£6200
Draw lose -£1100
Book equity £4900
SA 3.7
Eng 1.68
Draw 7
Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.
Drinks final session
Eng 111-2 lead by 200
SA 10
Eng 1.5
Draw 4.1
10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3
Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..
The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :
Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???
Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???
Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.
COP
Eng lead by 261-3.
Steyn injured.
2 days left ..
SA 13.5
Eng 1.49
Draw 3.85
A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.
Book :
SA -£2900
Eng +£7200
Draw +£5900
Equity +£6200
Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.
///
play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.
wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.
At what price nw would you start to get interested in laying this draw do you think?
ReplyDeleteSorry, never saw this .. u better sending me a msg on Twitter.
DeleteDay 3 of a Test, with no weather issues, I was looking to back the Draw above 6.00, and lay sub 4.00. I am a trader, but, like often being contrary to the general view.