Rain, pre game, saw Mr Draw go odds, on, and its likely there will be only 50 overs on day 1.
Days 2,3,and 4, looks much warmer .. so, on this basis, think draw is a lay, especially at 2.00 or so.
Some interesting Test Draw Analysis, from Ric Finlay, who runs a database service, in Aus.
% of Tests, Drawn
Manchester 46 ...
Rains a bit, in Manchester.
So, all of Day 1 lost.
They can probably make up, 8 overs or so a day, with good weather.
Eng win toss, and Bat
Have taken Red.
At Lunch, Eng 67-3 ..
Eng 2.68 ... looks desperately short, and have laid
NZ 12 .. about right, maybe 2 points too big
Draw 1.80 .. looks big
COP .. Eng 337-7
.. Have Red book, going no-where ..
Game liquidity seems to be affected by lack of Indian money, as most bookies are hiding for cover, waiting for IPL fixing storm, to pass by.
Start day 3 .. big move for Eng, on the back of improved weather for Tues.
Had to lay Eng at 1.8x, before NZ bat ..
NZ get to 50, for 0 wkts, and I take all profits, getting rid of red, and making a cup of tea.
Wkts then fall .. NZ really fragile, and, in retrospect, was lucky they got off to such a good start.
Surprised Eng didn't enforce the follow-on .. u do wonder sometimes, if commercial interests, are at the heart of some of these decisions .. (get more people to ground, Day 4/5).
Anyway, have flat book.