Friday, 24 May 2013

2nd Test - England v N.Zealand - Headingley

Predictably wet.

Eng 1.88

NZ  12

Draw 2.34

Rain, pre game, saw Mr Draw go odds, on, and its likely there will be only 50 overs on day 1.

Days 2,3,and 4, looks much warmer .. so, on this basis, think draw is a lay, especially at 2.00 or so.

Some interesting Test Draw Analysis, from Ric Finlay, who runs a database service, in Aus.

% of Tests, Drawn

Leeds 25.4

Edgbaston  31.9

Lords   37.3

Nottingham  37.9

Oval    37.9

Manchester   46  ...

Rains a bit, in Manchester.


So, all of Day 1 lost.

They can probably make up, 8 overs or so a day, with good weather.

Prices, pre-toss

Eng 2.86

NZ  13

Draw 1.76


Eng win toss, and Bat

Eng 3.0

NZ   14

Draw 1.71


Have taken Red.

At Lunch, Eng 67-3 ..

Eng 2.68 ... looks desperately short, and have laid

NZ   12  .. about right, maybe 2 points too big

Draw 1.80  .. looks big


COP  .. Eng 337-7

Eng 2.2

NZ  40

Draw 1.91

.. Have Red book, going no-where ..

Game liquidity seems to be affected by lack of Indian money, as most bookies are hiding for cover, waiting for IPL fixing storm, to pass by.


Start day 3 .. big move for Eng, on the back of improved weather for Tues.

Had to lay Eng at 1.8x, before NZ bat ..

NZ get to 50, for 0 wkts, and I take all profits, getting rid of red, and making a cup of tea.

Wkts then fall .. NZ really fragile, and, in retrospect, was lucky they got off to such a good start.


Surprised Eng didn't enforce the follow-on .. u do wonder sometimes, if commercial interests, are at the heart of some of these decisions .. (get more people to ground, Day 4/5).

Anyway, have flat book.

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