I attended the One Day game at Worcester, and it seemed pretty clear to me, Australia have a very solid top/middle order, which England never looked like breaking down.
On the eve of the game, most bookies bet, something like :
Eng 3.4
Australia 2.6
Draw 2.8
Its only a 4 day game, so, the draw has a decent chance. I would have England, much bigger, and although the markets are v small, have a position against England.
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Aus win the toss and bat.
Overcast, so, do respect the draw, but, cant fathom how England are gonna take 20 wickets, so, have laid max Eng at 3.75 avg.
//
Aus 54-0 after 16 overs ;
Eng 8.00
Australia 2.7
Draw 1.94
Nice to look at a green book, after last week.
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This is going pear .. from 80-2 at Lunch, Shrubsole has bowled really well, and Aussies look in a fair amount of trouble, at 97-4.
Eng 2.6
Aus 3.2
Draw 3.0
Have laid more Eng.
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100-5 and Eng touch 1.90 .. laid more, so, my overall avg is now 2,7
Will try to reduce liability, if it gets back there.
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Aus 126-5
Eng 2.70
Aus 3.5
Draw 2.80
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COP Aus 268-8 .. which is a v fair effort, given they were 100-5.
Current prices, (with weather forecast generally improving)
Eng 4.4
Aus 2.4
Draw 2.80
Now comes the traders dilema. I can bank a profit, (which usually is a reasonable option, and even feel, 4.5 or so on Eng, is about right - but, still cant pull the trigger).
I am genuinely surprised, Lanning and Perry scored so few runs, and have to believe, they will be better in the 2nd dig.
If I had no previous position on this game, I would lay the draw .. but, have a fair amount of travel in the next few days, making weather watching tricky, so, I will probably just leave my position as is.
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Day 2 - and some nasty rain, came from almost no-where. Delayed start, to about 12.30, but, time can be made up .. might lose 8 overs today.
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