Monday, 12 December 2016

Win-rates of poker v exchange players

I have been viewing a lot of Vlogs (Video logs), put out by 'successful' poker players, who want to maybe create a second income stream.

This is a good idea .. it doesn't take too long, and the video editing process, has gotten a lot easier.

One day, I might consider doing a Vlog, but, its maybe premature.

One of the videos, took a decent look at win-rate, of what a pro poker player, (in Vegas), might make.

Vegas is a cheap place to live - games run 24/7, and has the good/bad features, of a gambling mecca.

A medium pro, might look to win 10 Big Blinds per hour, after maybe 3 mths of study. For No Limit Hold-em, the games are typically, $1/2 .. so, the small blind is $1, the Big Blind $2. If u play 40 hours a week, you might make $800 a week, $3200 a mth.

That's for an accomplished pro .. so, maybe 7 BB is more realistic .. which equates to $560 a week, or $2240 a mth. Its ok, etc, but, with expenses .. we haven't really discussed if the pro has a family etc, its not really enough.

The games do run higher .. $2/$5, or $5/$10 are available .. and the skill level to beat 2/5, isn't that much higher then 1/2, but, the bankroll needed to sustain yourself, during the inevitable downswings, is much bigger.

Anyway, I was thinking, of the return, an exchange player, can make per hour.

Its obviously less well documented. A few blogs will post P/L cols for the day, but, what u really want to see, is the Premium Charge statement .. which gives weekly P/L, and cumulative numbers.

If a trader sits at his desk, and churns out 40 hours .. whats his expected return ? For me, a 7 hr test day .. using  a bank of £10k, I would like to think £200-£400 a day is expected return. If I traded horse-racing, it would be considerably less. How many BB / Hr does that equate to ?

Say £50 an hr .. is not so far away, from the $50/hr, a $2/$5 pro would expect to make, especially if the exchange trader then has to pay PC.

The lives are roughly similar .. sedentary jobs, 'achieving' nothing, but accumulating cash. Its possible the exchange trader could automate some of his stuff .. but, this is easier said than done .. I am getting v suspicious of the automated programs, which try to make u believe, 'any one can do it' - I certainly cant - and I have really tried.


  1. A lot of online players multi-table, which is a two-edged sword. In a casino you can only play one table at a time, which limits the scalability of your income. If you can multi-table online then you can scale up your income n times. However, as with attempting to trade multiple exchange markets, there is a phyiscal limit as to how many tables you can play on simultaneously before it degrades performance.

  2. Sure .. the greats like Nanonoko can multi-table 24+ tables .. whether that is good/bad for the brain, long-term, is probably to be determined.

    I do play poker .. I spent 70 hrs travelling thru the US, in April this yr .. for a win-rate, of about 2BB .. before expenses. LOL.

    Poker players will tell u, the golden years are behind us .. much like exchanges .. maybe .. I have hopes etc, but, maybe, they are misplaced.

  3. Before sports betting/trading I played online full-time. As you say, it accomplishes little except for accumulating cash/taking it off others, but a decent hourly rate was possible even at $1/2 or lower, with 8+ tabling using software and playing ABC style. I averaged about 4BB/100 hands over a huge sample which is fine considering the hands per hour online when multitabling, and the fact live poker was (probably still is) quite a bit softer.

    Also, in my era, there were plenty of high percentage rakeback deals, so players were essentially being rewarded for providing liquidity - a concept which the sports exchange market has yet to properly grasp...

    1. Yeah .. on-line seems to have been easier // where have we heard that before // and it would be nice if we got a rakeback from Betfair, for providing liquidity, rather than being penalised.

      I am watching the number of US states, that are legalising poker/sports betting.

      I now place the over/under on legalised sports betting, in 8+ US states, at 2 yrs.