Monday, 12 October 2015

The power of a Lemon ...

So, its Monday morning, am am mindlessly watching some Poker on Youtube.

On different monitors, I have the Test match mkts up .. (Tomorrow, Pak play Eng in Dubai), and am thinking about some bets.

For the uninformed, a test match is scheduled to last 5 days, and will result in either :

Team A win

Team B wins

Its a Draw (no-one wins)

Its a Tie .. (about a 3000/1 chance)

Cricket markets get a lot of liquidity from India, where, they are conditioned to having a position around the Draw. This causes it to be over-bet .. but, with new cricket laws/more aggressive play, there are currently less draws than the mkt thinks = Value to oppose.

Some stats :

Since the last cricket World Cup, there have been 23 tests .. for each, the Draw price normally starts about 3.25, but often trades below 2.0

4 have finished on Day 3
6 have finished on Day 4
5 have finished on Day 5

and there have been 5 draws .. so, the true probability is 5/23 or, close to 5.5 (9/2).

Present odds for the game tomorrow :

Pakistan 2.4

England 3.35

Draw 3.5

Some people would be laying 3.5 the Draw ...

Now for the lemon :

On the poker, there was a water-dispenser .. and there was a sign saying, dont put lemons in styrofoam cups.

The lemon contains limonene, better known as Citra-solv, and this will dissolve the syrofoam.

Its not hazardous to health, but, eventually, it will dissolve the cup, leaving u with a 'non-toxic' substance like model-airplane glue ..

See .. u learn something every-day.

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