Friday, 16 September 2016

Wacky Races

Its been a hell of a week.

They say a week is a longtime in Politics, and I can see why.

Clinton once looked clear, and only had to jump the final fence, but, now, the exchange markets, have drifted her from 1.45 - maybe 2 weeks ago, to 1.65 or so, on the back of coughing/collapsing, and Trumps' marketing savvy.

Lets be clear, I think Clinton is a v weak candidate - has little personal appeal, and clearly has issues with the truth .. but, Trump, says things, which just make no sense, and are both politically naive, and incorrect.

Trump is presently available to lay . in as much size as most would want, at 2.94. Clinton is 1.62.

The markets are a traders dream .. and if u have a view, and want to market-make .. u can make a decent book. (That is .. if u live outside the US .. u cant bet on politics in the land-of-the-free).

A v respected website, which has called the last few US elections, almost perfectly .. , makes Clinton / Trump 60:40.

That makes Clinton 1.6x .. which equates to the betting markets, but, I feel there is a disconnect.

I have heard stories, that it costs relatively little, for campaign managers to pump money into betting markets, distorting things. Its more natural, to expect it to happen, closer to the race .. but, $25m traded on Betfair .. is peanuts  .. considering presidential elections cost, literally billions. (2012 cost $2 billion, and this yrs, is expected to cost $5billion)

Conspiracy ?

Who knows ? All I know .. is that I have waited all yr, to Lay Trump. At sub 3.0, I have had to get involved.

For those who want to listen to excellent political podcasts, take your pick .. its a big market:

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