Sunday, 19 June 2016

Brexit - Decent Arb

Since the tragic death of Jo Cox, sterling has had a fantastic run, gaining 600 basis points, from 1.40, to 1.46.

Some forecasts from the city, worked from options, seems to indicate an implied probability of Britain staying in Europe, of about 1.2x.

Current price on Betfair, is 1.40. Looks too big, whichever way u gonna vote.


1 pm, Next day, Remain on Betfair 1.28, after pound went higher.

Ching, ching !!!

No comments:

Post a Comment