Monday, 4 February 2013

Poker Variance - Running Bad

I understand, Poker is a game of Variance (for now).

One day, I really hope, on line sites, will find a way to break-down hands, so that, if there is say, a 2000 chip pot, half of it, is allocated to the prevailing odds, and half of it, is just played out, in the normal way.


Say you have

K ♠ K ♣

Your opponent has :

A ♦ Q ♥

At this point, the Kings are 72% favourite, so of the 2000 chip pot, 1000 is split according to current likelihood of winning percentage, and 1000 played for in the normal way - so 720 is allocated to the player with Kings, 280 to the other player.

The other 1000 in the pot, is played out normally, and the combined chips, are given to each player, at the end of the hand.

Anyway, that's just an idea.

I have been thinking about variance .. a lot .. caused, by, some of the worst beats, I have had to suffer, in the last 5 tourneys I have played. The tourneys are relatively low level, but, it still hurts.

Here are 3 of the worst.

Playing nicely, I accumulated 57k chips, only by the 3rd level, when blinds were 100-200. This chip stack, was 20% of total chips in play .. so, everyone is saying, fold to the final table.

Players started with 8k chips.

That's not my game, and dominating every ones stack, I find J ♥ 9 ♥  in the cut-off.

Blinds were 100-200, and as there were 2 limper's, I raised 900.

I get 2 callers ..

Flop comes : J ♠ 9 ♦ 4 ♣

The 2 limper's check .. I bet .. all-in, and get called, by a guy with 12k chips. He has

J ♦ K ♠

So, at this point, I have 80% equity, and should win the hand, 4 times out of 5. Boom -  turn brings the K ♣ and I am dead.

No miracle on the river, so, now he has 27k chips, and I have about 43k chips.

The very next hand, I get

K ♠ K ♣     ... and I never get big pairs.

Somehow, it all goes in, against the same guy, who has A ♦ 7 ♣

How the hell, he calls my shove, with that crap, I just don't know, but, as I am sure u guessed, he hits his Ace on the flop, and says, 'unlucky'.

Its pointless saying anything .. just walk-away ..

One other gem :

I get Q ♠ Q ♥

My opponent, a good player, has J ♥ J ♣

The flop is 7 ♦ 4 ♣ 10 ♠

It all goes in .. Turn, is harmless : 3 ♥

Needless to say, he hits his 2 outer, on the river. I sorta expect it now .. and am playing big pairs, far, far more aggresively, as I dont want morons to call, and catch-up/lap me.

Anyway, I am playing in the WSOPA  (World series of Poker Africa) tomorrow .. hope to get a little run good, for a change .. I feel I am playing great .. it will be nice to play a deep stack tourney for a change.


  1. Just read your blog and quite like it. "Unlucky" is a word used by people that usually catch up when they know they are beat.

    I think you might want to re-look at playing big pairs more aggressively. The way i look at it is if you are betting very aggressively most of the time your opponent will think you're trying bluff him off the hand and will call. Maybe if you slow down and bet smaller your opponent might think you're trying to trap him with trips or some thing better then his cards.

    Q's into J's is pretty sick but would you fold jacks on a ten hi board?

  2. Thx for the comments

    Its always hard to accept criticsm, and adjust - but I do feel, something is not quite right about
    a few levels to my game.

    I have looked for a trainer/coach, but, there are none available .. I have asked around, in S.Africa, and .. Poker is just a pastime/hobby, so, havent looked on the internet.

    If somene pops along .. or, can get one, in the UK, I may pursue this line.