Starting Price Theft

This doesnt just happen in the UK - where, I believe, the reported Horse-racing Sp, is taken from the top 5 bookies on the track  --  whether they are reps of the High Street chains, or not.

A race just occurred at the Vaal sand track, in S.Africa.

They were betting :

On BettingWorld.co.za

Senescal     2/1
Tornado Twister   22/10
Roaming in Rome  8/1


On Betfair, at the off

Senescal 7.4
Tornado Twister 3.1
Roaming in Rome 7.8

Punters, backing Senescal, anywhere really, got a stuff ..

Result :

1.Roaming in Rome
2.Senescal


The Gambling Comissision employs a lot of people. Fairness in gambling, is part of their remit.

The current SP process, largely controlled by the High Street Bookies, taking no account of internet exchanges, is Not Fair.

Bah Humbug

Really shit day.

In the local domestic T20, 2 pretty shit teams, were playing each other, and I fet the Dolphins were the least shit, and 2.1 down to 1.9, was value.

Backed them everywhere, and they won the toss, and decided to bat, on a track, where 170, is normally par.

They dawdled to 131-5 .. Bopara played another passenger role, and even against the Knights, it wasnt going to be enough.

They lose Bosman early, but, thereafter all hope ended, as they hit boundaries for fun, and got the total in a canter.

Done my absolutes.


Went to the Poker, a £100 buy-in, for which u get 8000 chips.

Its one-re buy, and I like to gamble early, and bluffed a guy, off his Jack, on a final board of

8 ♠ 8 ♥ 8 ♦ J ♦ 7♣


He asked me, if I would show, (after he had folded)  and I had to say Yes - so, showed the total air, and thou he wasnt pissed, made a mental note.

An hour later, I have got 26k chips, blinds are 200/400, and I am in the Big Blind.

I pick up 4 ♠ 4 ♦

The same guy, raised to 1200, and I have an easy call, for 800 chips.

Flop comes :   2 ♣ 4 ♥ 5 ♦

Bingo !!

First to act, I bet 2000, he raises to 4000, I push all-in, and he calls, for 18k chips.

He has : Q ♠ Q ♥   .. so, he has 2 outs ..

Turn : Q ♦ and I just want to hit someone.


Dont go on tilt, I have 8k chips left, and grind it up to 14k, when I pick up pocket 7's, and attack a mid-table raise, of 1800, which is flat-called by another player.

A good player, makes what I think, is a dubious call, with A K offsuit, but, naturally makes 2 pair, and I am looking for the door.


Its a really sick game, and I take the £100 loss, much harder, than the money lost on the cricket.

Tom Maynard Inquest

Just so sad.

Obviously, things have to follow due course, but, dont much like the way, Tabloids get extra mileage, from hashing accounts of the fateful nite.

I saw him play, but never spoke to him. Have the distinct impression, he was a good guy, and just hope/pray, readers never have to endure the emotions, his parents currently have/are.

RIP

More Poker ...

Am playing live tourneys 3 times a week .. In a casino, in which some of the best players in the country play ..

Of the 60 players, 25 are serious contenders ..

Last night, in a £50 freeze-out, there were multiple WSOP ring/bracelet winners .. And it's great experience to be on the same table.

Finished 12th, crippled from an early 60/40 flip .. I was fav - no complaints.

Am starting to re-think, the way I play pocket 10,s . In both cash games and tourneys, now think, they are not hands to push with, pre-flop. Better to wait for flop. And see if u flop a set.

If no set, and only 1 over, u can bet something - and see if u get called/raised, in which case u are done with the hand.

Playing cash, after the tourney, I get it all in, 10,s, against A Q suited, and am 57/43 fav.

It's a good edge, but, the variance is starting to affect me - and, as usual, he hits an A.

On the plus side, I set mined about 6 times, and found the set 2x, to finish the nite with a profit .. And finally, seeing some cards.

My casino has some major degens. There is one guy, who plays craps/roulette for hours, and he's not playing for peanuts.

His usual bet, on the craps, is £300 per number, £500 on the line, and full odds. So, he's involved for £2-£3k, per roll .. Pressing till he hits table limit, which is £750 per number, at which point, he takes wins, but leaves everything on.

He controls everything around the game .. U cannot put your chips, in the first rack on the table .. Just the 2nd rack, in case the dice hit it, and u have to stand away from table edge, with hands behind your back.

The casino agree with him !! Which is total bollox, but shows what a donator he must be. Nice when he puts the casino under pressure, but, those days are too few and far between.

Posted with Blogsy

T20 - S.Africa v Pakistan - Durban

Scheduled for this Friday .. (in 3 days time), and weather already looking dodgy.

CMM has game at 1.30, in a thin mkt ..

Durban have lost losta games, over the last yr, and this would be another disappointment.

Pre-game, S.Africa are rightly favs, as Pakistan are a bit unknown.



S.Africa 1.60

Pakistan 2.60


Watching racing from Durban .. no rain last 24 hrs, and baking hot .. 37c or so .. which is probably the problem, as the heat will cause the thunderstorms, later in the week.


Now Friday morning :

CMM

Yes (there will be a game) 1.83 offerred ..

No ( no activity)

Readers who got the jump, can book profits, or, hold on .. its raining in Durban.

Will post pics on Blog.

Will no longer post them on twitter, just links.

Posted with Blogsy

3rd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Centurion - Day 2

I must confess, am already bored with this.

The India v Aus game,  is much more compelling .. lets hope, this picks up.


SA bowled out, eventually, for 400.

Lets see how the Pak top order fare.

Lunch .. Pak 9-0  .. no real demons, so far.


SA  1.40

Pak 14

Draw 4.7


Just before Tea .. havent watched much, to be honest ..

Pak 85-4  ..

SA 1.16

Pak   25

Draw 8.8


Pakistan fold, miserably, to 156.

On the enforced follow-on, they are 6-1, after 2 overs. This will probably be over in 3 days ..


///////////////////


And it was.

Its raining on Day 4 .. Draw backers, must feel a bit miffed.

A great start to a birthday ..Birthday Blues

54 yrs old, and feel like a 100.

Finallly get up, after watching some cricket game or other - there really is too much.

Going thru the markets, I see I have some bets on the Australia runs lines .. I have backed them to score 350, and laid 375, so have a little middle, in which I would win .. £50 or so .. something to watch.

My cat steps on the keyboard, and a button is pressed .. and 'the cat' has laid Australia to score 250 runs .. they already have 367, and I have lost £2000 in cold blood.

My blood pressure goes thru the roof ..

You might ask .. how can it happen .. well. I have automated betting software, without confirmation, so, this can happen.

Send off an email to Betfair, but am expecting nothing - its not their fault .. but, maybe the run-lines, which have already won, should be removed from the market - to prevent mistakes.

With the absolute needle, decide to lay Hurricanes against the Blues, to win £4000. They are 1.38 chances, and Hurricanes can be an odd team. (Also, Birthday Blues - is sorta rythmical)

Despite an horrendous call by the TMO, which gave the Hurricanes a penalty try, and sent off a man for 10 mins, the Blues still WIN !!!!!!

So, am winning £2000, and its not 9.am yet ..

The cat is getting a fan-club ...

Here's a pic .. Big Fat Scary Cat .. Is his name.

Posted with Blogsy

3rd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Centurion

SA win toss, but without Kallis.

Pak without Gul/Jamshed

They decide to bat ..

At drinks, 44-2  ..

SA 1.62

Pak 4.0

Draw 7.0



Lunch ..  104-2   Amla gets a 50, with Faff.

SA 1.47

Pak 7.20

Draw 5.1

Pak might think, they have bowled poorly, given the conditions... u might have expected 2 wkts more, given the normallow 1st inngs scores here.


Tea .. S.Africa  201-5

SA 1.44

Pak 5.8

Draw 7.0

Glorious sunshine



Some decent batting after tea, and Pakistan again lose a chance, to take a grip on the game.

S.Africa finish on 334-6 .. on a pitch, which is normally a 265-260 number.

The strip is a new one, so, its possible S.Africa wont be as penetrating, but, u have to think, once again, its set-up for them.

Thats why they are Number 1.


SA  1.29

Pak 17

Draw 5.8

3rd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Centurion .. Pre game

3 days before the final test ..

Rained on Monday .. from about 2pm, on and off, so, they would have lost some overs.

Morkel out, replaced by Kyle Abbott - at least hes in the squad .. Kleinfeldt will probably play.

(Morkel took 7 wkts, v India here, in 2010, so, he might be missed)

I make it, 17 Tests have been played by S.Africa at the ground, with a record of winning 13, losing 1, and 3 were draws.

The draws, were largely not weather related .. but, its a ground where avg scores are 260, so, u would think, 50 overs need to be lost, to force a draw.

Prices ..

S.Africa 1.47

Pakistan 7.0

Draw 5.6


Overcast, on Wednesday .. might get some spots of rain.

Thursday was good, but forecasts for Sun/Mon are a little unclear.

..............


And so, its Match Day.

Not as bright a day, as initially thought, and rain now definitely on the way, for Monday.

Probably wont matter ..


SA  1.45

Pak  6.00

Draw 6.8

Revenge of the pocket 10's

Readers of this blog, will know I got knocked out of the WSOP circuit event, in the first 29 mins of Day 2, with pocket 10,s.

 

 

That story, is a little more compete now, as I spoke to the guy who had pocket AA, and had raised 3 times in a row,

On the other occasions, he had K J Suited, and 99, so, was unlucky to re-raise him, on the time he had a monster.

Anyway ..

Playing a small cash game, I had a table stack of £300, when a new guy comes to the table,with £150.

First hand, he raises my straddle - it was, £2/4, and his raise was £12, and I have pocket 10,s.

I re-raise, to £30, and he calls.

Flop is Q Q 10.

I bet all-in, and he calls .. With 99, and get the money.

 

Posted with Blogsy

2nd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Newlands - Day 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great game .. With lotsa possibilities.
Pakistan 112 in front, 3 down.

SA need some early wickets

 

SA 1.97

Pak 3.2

Draw 5.6

 

Wow..wot a morning .. Unbelievable volatility .. But, Pakistan lose 5 wkts, 3 in quick succession, and end the morning, almost in tatters, at 157-8, 169 ahead.

You would have to think, they need at least another 50 runs, to have any sort of chance.

SA 1.20

Pak 6.0

Draw 100

 

Draw backers died again ..thou, had some major mileage.

 

Pakistan lose their last 2 wkts, quickly, and set S.Africa 170 .. Which is 50 runs short.

S.A. Have a few hiccups, but get their, in the end, 7 down, and the game is over in 4 days. A bit disappointing .. Had an ok game, but, some of my comedy green, on Pakistan, was wasted.

 

Posted with Blogsy

2nd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Cape Town - Day 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

so, Day 3.

In theory, a better day to bat .. but SA 199 behind, 5 wkts left.

Pak fielding a little below par, and SA score 109 runs in the session, for 2 wkts ... 248-7. .. 90 behind.

SA 1.90

Pak 3.3

Draw 5.5

Adjmal not as threatening .. but still a great bowling performance.

After lunch, SA all out 326 .. good innings by Pietersen ..15 behind

SA 1.74

Pak 4.3

Draw 5.1

 

Tea ..

Pak 25-2, 37 overs left in day, lead by 38

SA 1.50 .. looks a gamble lay

Pak 4.2 .. right

Draw 9.2 .. back if anything, to trade

 

 

At the close, Pakistan attacking, and Morkel off injured, unlikely to bowl again.

Pakistan lead by 100, 3 down.

Rain now looks unlikely, for Monday, so, game on.

 

S.Africa 1.98 .. Looks a lay

Pak 3.05 .. Couldn't back at the price

Draw 5.7 .. Plenty of room. To go shorter.

 

Good game .. Got world class book.

 

Posted with Blogsy

2nd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Cape Town - Day 2

Blogsy is giving me a lot of shit .. not posting properly .. will re-type.

Gorgeous day, after a windy nite.

Run line, is 335, as Pakistan continue from 235-5 overnight.

S.Africa need these 5 wkts, quickly, to justify their odds.


Drinks - Pak 299-8

SA 1.55

Pak 6.8

Draw 4.8

Lunch .. Pak 338 all out


SA 1.72 .. Looks v short

Pak 6.2 .. right

Draw 3.75  .. Big enuf to trade .. my thinking is, runs will shorten draw, and go to Pak price .. SA not gonna move much.


SA run line 415 .. they fucking metal


Tea  SA 65-2 ..

SA 1.75

Pak 4.6

Draw 4.2


Ball spinning, but mkt doesnt respect Pak .. comedy green


DRinks after Tea


SA 105-4

SA 2.44

Pak 2.58

Draw 4.7


Fragile mkt - ball spinnubg .. I like Pak a lot


At close of play .. SA 139-5 , 199 behind

SA favs ??? .. 2.48 WTF ???

Pak 2.68

Draw 4.3


Some eye watering prices



In the hrs after, cooler heads prevail :


Now, Pak 2.36

SA 2.64

Draw 5.1

looks better

2nd Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Cape Town

Interesting day 1, during which, S.Africa won the toss, decided to bowl, and had Pakistan in a heap of trouble, 4 down for not many.

A superb recovery, has them 253-5 at the close, and there are many opinions as to which way this will go.

Easiest way forward, is to lay the draw at 4.1.

Start of play :

S.Africa 1.47 .... Down to 1.12, high of 2.28

Pakistan 6.0 ... Down to 4.5 or so, high of 25

Draw 5.3. .. Down to 2.96, high of 12

Initial run line, 265, hammered lower.

No rain ,. Clear blue skies .. Thou there was rain, pre-game.

Close of Play
S.Africa 1.65
Pakistan 6.6 .. Looks fair
Draw 4.1 .. Looks low

Posted with Blogsy

Casino Statistics

The Gambling Commission, prepare a report .. Well, the people have to do something - which summarises the amount people buy Chips for at a Casino - commonly known as "The Drop" and the House win percentage, of that Drop.

It is broken down by Region.

For Dec 2012, roughly :

Scotland : Drop £200m, house win 16.1%

North : Drop £730m, house win 15.4%

High end London : Drop £2 073m, house win 8.4%

Other London : Drop £2 019m, house win 16.0%

So, the only figure really sticking out, is why High End London, is so low, compared to the norm.

The drop isn't that much, compared to other London .. Maybe it's the result of devices .. Helping gamblers, or, just the rest of the country, have fewer ideas.

It's an odd figure .. But maybe 1 mth, is a blip.

Posted with Blogsy

Pocket 10,s

So, playing in my normal Sunday Tourney, for £100. Only 16 players, just to other events, drawing players away.

2nd level, I have a guy on my immediate left, who has 1 away from me, on the left, when I went out of the 1st event, with the 10,s, against pocket AA. He is a thinking player, and saw/commented on my demise, saying 'unlucky'.

He went on to cash, going out 17th.

Blinds are 100/200, I have 6600, from a starting stack of 8000.

In early position, 2 off the button, raises to 700. I get the dreaded pocket 10,s, and re-raise to 1800.

Villain (thinking player) re-shoves, all-in .. And his stack covers mine.

Initial raiser folds.. Just me, and a think again.

Following all the drama this week, I decide to fold, and he shows me J 10 off-suit .. I feel like this hand is trying to kill me.

Went out. 3 or 4 hands later .. KQ suited, against pocket Kings.


Not my week.

Posted with Blogsy

WSOP Event 4 - $580

Ok, so it's now Saturday, and have spent most of the week, re-thinking the hand I busted out of Event 1.

I suppose, most players agonise over The Hand - that busts you, but, this has been worse, as really, I should have cashed .. Lying in 20th place, of 43, with top 30 paid.

I made a lot of mistakes .. I should have really targeted the small stacks .. Especially to my left, but, couldn't wait to get tangled with the bigger ones.

Anyway ...

30 mins till the next event .. I didn't play in the main event - $3300 is too much for my bankroll/game .. Thou, a lot of people I play with at Montecasnio are playing .. And I particularly wish Warren Zackey (who had a deep run, in the WSOP man event), well.

Will try and update the blog as the day goes, but, may be busy etc.

.............

Totally card dead ,. And its fucking enough !!

2 hrs, one pair 7,s, one AK.

Down to 5500 at the break.

 

Cards required ...

 

Guy on my immediate right, has 375 left .. Blinds 100/200, and he has shoved, pre-flop, blind.

I have 4700 left .. And pick up A Q off-suit - mid-position.

Plenty good enough to raise-all in .. But, not thinking, I just throw in a 1k chip, And it's just a call .. Not even a raise ... Fuck !!

3 players priced in to call ..

Flop A 4 3 rainbow ..

I now shove .. And get called by A 4 .... Obviously played the hand like a right twat, and the remaining cards didn't help. Out early .. But, not focused, and got what I deserve.

Long drive home ....

 

 

Will have some thinking to do .. But other players also had their share of beats .. One guy, in 3 different tourneys, hits a set on the flop, shoves, and is called every time, by a flush draw. In all three, the villain makes the flush, and he's walking/talking to himself.

Poker can be a sick game.

Posted with Blogsy

Conditional Veto for New Jersey Online Gambling Bill

I wrote back in Decemeber, that I felt 2013 would be a positive year for Poker/Internet gambling stocks :

http://megarainuk.blogspot.com/2013/01/fiscal-cliff-bill.html

and in other places.

Chris Christie, Governor for New Jersey, waited till the last minute, of the 45 day deadline, to issue a conditional veto, on the states proposed on-line gambling legislation, but, supporters of on-line gambling, can take heart, that the veto, is fairly limited, and things are moving.

Stocks with exposure to Atlantic City, lke Boyd Gaming (Full disclosure - I own some), and Caesars Entertainment, moved 5% and 13% upwards, on the news.

UK stocks, BWIN and 888 have moved 12-14% upwards.

Laddaq - waiting for the changes

2 weeks ago, Ladbrokes finally acquired the Betdaq exchange, for a decent sum, and I was hoping for change.

http://megarainuk.blogspot.com/2013/01/exchange-stuff.html

I havent had a job for a long time, so, may have forgotten how ridiculously slow, big companies now operate, but .. If anything has really happened (on Betdaq), I have missed it.

Liquidity, if anything, has fallen .. At least on the mkts I have watched.

Maybe they are busy setting up meetings, with counterparts etc .. And the techies are in meetings, wondering how to get the 2 companies systems to talk to each other .. Users don't know .. They tell u nothing, but expect you to waste your time, looking at markets, which are just a copy of Betfair, less 9%.

Maybe my expectations were too high .. Maybe 2 months is a more realistic time-frame .. I really hope something has happened by then.

Just for the record, Ladbrokes share price, on Jan 21 2013 - 211.66

Ladbrokes share price Feb 7 2013 - 218.34

Betfair share price, Jan 21 2013 - 664.7

Betfair share price, Feb 7 2013 - 680.6

Posted with Blogsy

Blind Luck

I have some kids, and they have a hard time adjusting to my lifestyle/telling other kids, what I do.

There are obviously compensations. I get to spend long periods of time with them .. At times .. Anyway, and it's quality time .. I was stunned at the stat, that the average Dad, only spends 6 mins a day, with his kids.

When they watch me trade, I will often have a stock ticker, running.

2 encourage stock/share ownership, I encouraged them to choose a few shares .. And my 9 yr old, who is a decent thinker, went away, and came back, maybe 2 days later.

I thought he would choose a popular share, like maybe Apple .. And was fairly stunned, when his pick was a company called Take Two Interactive. Who the hell are they ? Is a fair question. It turns out, they make video games, with the best selling brand, Grand Theft Auto, in their stable.

I opened a spread bet, for £3 a point, back in Oct, when, they were 1136.6.

3 months later .. They are 1441.1, and he checks on his current £913 profit every day.

He hasn't really dabbled elsewhere .. For a few weeks, we held some Samsung (got some profits), and some oil shares, which are basically flat.

Posted with Blogsy

WSOP Africa - Satelite to the main event

Drove back to the casino, and I suppose its normal, for most poker players, to be "talking to yourself", thinking about the hand that knocked me out of the 1st event.

There have been some comments, but, I am starting to think, the best line, may have been, just to fold.

I was in the small blind, and will be out of position, for the remainder of the hand. OK, so, the re-raise will probably mean, there isn't too much more input to the hand .. Either he folds or shoves ..but, it was possible, the limper, might have slow-played pocket J/Q.

Anyway, trying to put it out of my mind.

Played in the Mega Satelite, but, it had a v fast structure, and only 4000 starting chips. I didn't play that we'll, and in all honesty, was lucky to get the stack to 11k, before going completely card dead. I had Raymond Rahme on my immediate right, and my nemesis, Alon Argaman next to him. Alon got Pocket QQ, KK, AK, in 4 hands .. 2 against me, and I think he slow played them a bit, as I survived. (Alon cashed in the 1st Event).

I finally went out, with the blinds at 300/600, 75 Ante .. After maybe 2 hrs.

Went to watch the final table of the event I was knocked out of, sorta rooting for Jared Solomon, as I think he is a solid pro/good guy .. Thou would also love to see Michael Holden win it .. As he plays so patiently, and David Dadic, who's commentaries on the All Africa Poker I used to love ( thou he knocked me out of an event .. Maybe 4 yrs ago .. KK v QQ ) .. I don't suppose he remembers.

It's being streamed, and the quality is fair, but can't really hear much .. But my Internet is shit.

Its pissing down in Johannesburg, but, theres no cricket here ... so no one really cares.

.............................

Just seen Jarred Soloman (solotilt on twitter, take down the 1st event.

Really pleased for him .. watched some of his poker in Melbourne, and was lucky enough to win 30k, chips off him yesterday .. which he remembered, and said I gave him a few problems. Just shows hes a nice guy .. everyone knows, I havent gotta clue ...

Posted with Blogsy

WSOP Africa - Event 1

Ok, so after all the moaning, I entered a $300 buy-in, 2 day event.

It's the first WSOP event I have played in Africa, and it's a real joy to have the tournament directors from the USA, take control, and teach the locals - they can only learn, which is fair enough.

I played in Flight A, starting 11am local, and have just finished, an hour ago.

120 odd players played in Flight A, and thru 15 levels, we played down to 16 players. Average stack is 71k.

I got a bit lucky, early on ..

Starting stacks were 10k (I think - brain a bit frazzled), but levels/structure is great.

Nothing much happened early on .. Ripped up 4k, on some bluff, then got it back ..

I had a stack of about 8k, and was playing fairly tight, when this hand comes along :

Blinds of 75, 150, under the gun, makes it 300, called by 4 players, including me.

I have 8 ♦, 7 ♦, In late position .. Total stack, maybe 7k .. I flat call.

Flop comes : A♦, J ♦ , 4 ♣

The initial raiser, bets 750. This is called by the next guy, and I make it 2500.

A solid cash game player, who has seen me win hands, with 8 ♣, 2 ♣ and other junk, ships for 6500. Initial raiser, caller, fold.

I have a deep think, and call.

He turns over K ♦ , Q ♦ and I am in pretty bad shape.

Turn : 7 ♣ .. A few gasps

River : 7 ♠

Nice to get lucky, and have built the stack, to 60k .. One of the 16, from Flight A.

It's a thrill to be playing .. Grinder and Scotty are being very nice to everyone, and it's fun.

Will see how many get thru, from Flight B, hopefully, 25 or so. 1st place is $20k, down to $465 for 30th.

..................

Got not much sleep .. Mind buzzing etc, and was gonna drive home (1hr), but it wet, and roads are badly lit, so found a hotel ..

43 players in total, will play Day 2, and I am in 20th place, a mile away from the chip leader on 191k, but, with 30 BB or so ..

 Something to work with.

It's the morning after, when u reflect what your stack might have been, if you had done, this or that, but, I have v few regrets. Poker variance can be rough .. Especially when u are a loose player, who looks to be aggressive.

Definately, fun thou.
............
Day 2 .. got 60k, blinds now 1000, 2000 with 300 ante.

I steal 2nd hand of day, and get stack to 66k.

Seat 3, missed 1st 2 hands, but arrives, with 100k chips.

He raises next 3 hands in a row, and wins all hands, without showdown.

Next hand, in the small blind, I get 10 ♠, 10 ♦

Same guy, raises his normal figure .. 5500, a solid player, in mid-position, who only plays good hands, flat calls. Now 16k in pot. I bet 20500. Hoping for a squeeze, but really thinking the initial raiser can't have good cards again .. (I played 7 hours yesterday, and never saw a pair above 10's).

Anyway, initial raiser ships, and I am now in a really tough spot. I have only seen him play 4 hands. Maybe he's bluffing, but, I sorta put him on A K, A Q, type hands .. but can also have mid-pairs, or air.

I call .. He flips over A ♦, A ♥

No miracles on the flop, turn, river, and I am gone.

Deep sigh ..

Maybe I should fold .. V hard hand .. Comments welcome.

Posted with Blogsy

Poker Variance - Running Bad

I understand, Poker is a game of Variance (for now).

One day, I really hope, on line sites, will find a way to break-down hands, so that, if there is say, a 2000 chip pot, half of it, is allocated to the prevailing odds, and half of it, is just played out, in the normal way.

e.g.

Say you have

K ♠ K ♣

Your opponent has :

A ♦ Q ♥

At this point, the Kings are 72% favourite, so of the 2000 chip pot, 1000 is split according to current likelihood of winning percentage, and 1000 played for in the normal way - so 720 is allocated to the player with Kings, 280 to the other player.

The other 1000 in the pot, is played out normally, and the combined chips, are given to each player, at the end of the hand.

Anyway, that's just an idea.


I have been thinking about variance .. a lot .. caused, by, some of the worst beats, I have had to suffer, in the last 5 tourneys I have played. The tourneys are relatively low level, but, it still hurts.

Here are 3 of the worst.

Playing nicely, I accumulated 57k chips, only by the 3rd level, when blinds were 100-200. This chip stack, was 20% of total chips in play .. so, everyone is saying, fold to the final table.

Players started with 8k chips.

That's not my game, and dominating every ones stack, I find J ♥ 9 ♥  in the cut-off.

Blinds were 100-200, and as there were 2 limper's, I raised 900.

I get 2 callers ..

Flop comes : J ♠ 9 ♦ 4 ♣

The 2 limper's check .. I bet .. all-in, and get called, by a guy with 12k chips. He has

J ♦ K ♠

So, at this point, I have 80% equity, and should win the hand, 4 times out of 5. Boom -  turn brings the K ♣ and I am dead.

No miracle on the river, so, now he has 27k chips, and I have about 43k chips.


The very next hand, I get

K ♠ K ♣     ... and I never get big pairs.

Somehow, it all goes in, against the same guy, who has A ♦ 7 ♣

How the hell, he calls my shove, with that crap, I just don't know, but, as I am sure u guessed, he hits his Ace on the flop, and says, 'unlucky'.


Its pointless saying anything .. just walk-away ..

One other gem :

I get Q ♠ Q ♥

My opponent, a good player, has J ♥ J ♣

The flop is 7 ♦ 4 ♣ 10 ♠

It all goes in .. Turn, is harmless : 3 ♥

Needless to say, he hits his 2 outer, on the river. I sorta expect it now .. and am playing big pairs, far, far more aggresively, as I dont want morons to call, and catch-up/lap me.

Anyway, I am playing in the WSOPA  (World series of Poker Africa) tomorrow .. hope to get a little run good, for a change .. I feel I am playing great .. it will be nice to play a deep stack tourney for a change.

1st Test - S.Africa v Palkistan - Wanderers - Day 2

For some reason, my days blog got chewed, and I have to try recreate it.

It's hard to do S.Africa justice, in a few lines.

Pakistan folded, (or were forced to fold), to 49 all out. From 6-0 overnight, that's some bowling performance, even on a pitch, known for low scores.

Steyn was the main man, with 6-8 ... Better than good.

S.Africa took a 204 lead (not enforcing follow-on), and finish the day 207-3, 400+ ahead .. 3 days rain is needed by Pakistan, and that doesnt look likely.

This should be over, by lunch, day 4.

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1st Test - S.Africa v Pakistan - Wanderers - Day 1

SA win the toss, and decide to bat, on a pitch, which has some green.

Run line, is quite low .. 368

SA 1.58. ... Drifting

Pak 6.4

Draw 4.7

Blue skies, may get thunderstorms, late in the day.

Ball doing a lot early, and a brave decision by 100 captain Smith, to bat, considering all the hype etc, ... Can't be easy to concentrate.

At drinks .. SA 27-0

2 vital wkts in the second part if the morning, and SA finish on 68-2. Pakistan bowled with a great deal of merit, and on a tricky pitch, could easily have had 2 more.

At lunch :

SA 1.47 ... Plenty short enuf

Pak 7.4 .. Some value

Draw 5.1

Am slightly involved, against Draw and SA (small), with all green on Pakistan.

At Tea : SA 159-4, and expected score down to about 336.

SA 1.47

Pak 6.6

Draw 5.8

Some cloud, but don't think it will rain, before COP.

Still with Pakistan.

Drinks after tea :

SA 204-5 after 72 overs

SA 1.45

Pak 6.8

Draw 6.0

Low scoring pitch .. Avg score, 258 .. So, maybe SA score better than it looks.

And so, 5 overs before the end of play, SA post 253 all out.

Good bowling/fielding, I like this Pakistan side .. They seem energetic and happy.

At the break :

SA 1.60

Pak 3.85

Draw 8.4

How well will Pakistan bat on this ?

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