Saturday, 19 January 2013

ODI - S.Africa v N.Zealand - Paarl

Watched some of the Aus Open Tennis, so, only got 3 hrs sleep. Have to leave for the airport at 5.30am ... Problems .. Car tire flat ... Will be touch and go if I make the flight, ... Expecting drab game, so, an excuse to go back to bed, wouldn't go amiss.








Made the flight .. But got lost going to ground .. Few signs ... iPad maps - what a piece of crap that is, can't locate Boland Park.




Clear day expected .. Hopefully not too hot, as it can be really baking in this part of the world.

S.Africa resort to there one day side, with N.Zealand also looking a slightly stronger outfit.

Hard to see it being a contest thou, and S.Africa solid favourites a 1.22







Well, that was how it normally goes .. But, let me tell you a story.


I am a fond believer in a strong work ethic, which, is sometimes at odds with the life of a trader ... and that chance favours the prepared.


In a different life, I used to trade horses .. Every day, I would get into the motor, and travel 1-2 hrs, just to ern a crust. This was a long time ago, before markets were as efficient as they are today, but, I could usually manage to win, lets say 20x a day, where x is undisclosed.

One day, in a week of bad weather, I had a 3 hr journey, to get to a racetrack. The 1st race was at 12.30, so, it meant leaving, pretty early.

I got up, turned on the radio, and wasn't surprised to discover, their was a track inspection, scheduled for 9.00. This wasn't much good to me, as it's. long jounrney, so, decided to start off, and try and pull over, after an hr.

I did this, only to hear, the 1st inspection was unclear, and a new one was schedule for 10.30. This was a problem. Do I decide to drive on, and probaly waste the petrol / time / effort. After much soul-searching, I did drive on,and got to the track at 12.00, to discover, the good news, the meeting would go ahead.

As I got out the car, I did notice it was very windy, but, gave it little thought, as my mind was on the Cornish pasties, this racetrack excelled at.

Anyway, the meeting went ahead .. And, in the 1st race, prices did not seem accurate. This rarely happens for long .. Efficient markets catch up, but, this day, they stayed in-efficient .. So much so, that I won .. 8x in the first race.

This was a good start, but, wasn't that unusual, so, gave it little thought.

The markets stayed inefficient in race 2 and 3, and now, I was really confused. I started questioning my software .. But, was winning, 35x, so, although puzzled, boxed on.

I got a phone call after the 4th race, from a colleague, asking how things were going. By this time, I was winning 50x, and explained this to my friend .. At which point, the penny dropped, when he told me, the high winds had blown away the Race Transmission transmitter, and all the country was both without pictures, and a lot of betting information.

I went on, that day, to win 80x, ... 4 times the norm, and I just use this story, as a guide, to what can happen, when normally efficient markets, get distorted.


Back to the cricket.


At the game S.Africa scored a below par ?, 208. It's a bit debateble if its below par, as .. Average score batting 1st there, is 187 ..but, there haven't been that many games there, and last yr, S.Africa scored 300 against Sri Lanka.

I only just managed to get to the game, after a few mishaps in the morning, with the inclement weather, causing delays. I made it .. When, I could just as easily, have decided to bail, and watch India v England, and the Big Bash final on tv.

During the chase, at one stage NZ were 35-3, and priced at about 1.34, which for the non-traders, means NZ would be expected to win 1 game in 3.

For a bizzarre 10 minute period, the NZ price, crashed to 1.25, then 1.16, then 1.10. At 1.10 you are basically saying NZ would win the game, once, in 10, which, I am sure they would be v unhappy about, and was clearly wrong.

I did not know why the market had become so inefficient. I could understand, other cricket was being played .. Even more high profile games, so, many traders would be focused elsewhere, but, this was a massive move.

Twitter is a superb tool, to discover what's happening .. And a few tweets, quickly established TV pictures were being interrupted, at which point, the general power at the cricket ground, failed.

Now, if u are a trader, and, suddenly .. Lets make an analogy :

If bread is normally £1.00 a loaf .. And suddenly, it becomes 40p, what do you do ?




You might want to to buy a great deal, but, you have to both store it, and then sell it, before it goes stale. In the same way, a price for a cricket match, can quickly go, from being huge value, to worthless, so, this is where staking plans, and esoteric discussions of Kelly ( a staking system, based on edge), normally kick in.

Kelly will normally say, bet 2% of your bank. So, lets go back to the bread analogy .. Lets say, u have a bank of £1000 .. and u buy 20 loaves each day at £1, so u can sell them, at £1.10. (I know this only makes u £2 profit .. But, just bear with me).

Now, if the price of Bread goes to 40p, how many loaves should you buy ?

Many people will have different answers, and there is probably no right answer, although I could argue, there are some wrong ones.

Anyway, at the cricket, I had this opportunity/dilemma, and aggressively used it. Many times, I have gone the same route, only to find the bread is full of imperfections, and only fit for the birds. This time, I was able to hold my position long enough, before the market became semi- efficient again, and I could cash the profit.


On many occasions, I have gone the extra mile, only to get a kick in the nuts.

Days like these, make them more palatable.


No comments:

Post a Comment