I am starting to really like the Zimbabwe team, who, only have a few stars, and huge debt, so, the players don't tend to get paid, but, are playing for the thrill of playing a genuine world class side, in Pakistan.
Some might argue, only Ajmal in the Pakistan side, is truly world class .. But, each to their own.
The 1st Test, was held only a few days ago, at the same venue .. Harare Sports club .. The 2nd test was scheduled for Bulawayo, but, The Zimbabwe union reckon they could save $50k, by moving the game, so, it seemed sensible.
Some concern, the resulting pitch, may crack etc .. But, that's to be seen.
That would be especially worrying, should Zim have to bat last .. Given Ajmal took 11 wickets in the previous test ..
Anyway, Zim won the toss, and decided to bat. Taylor back as captain, after the birth of his first child.
Opening betting :
Zim 7.6
Pak 1.33
Draw 7
The draw is a huge price, as people think the pitch will become a minefield etc.
I expect Pakistan to win, and will bias my book towards them, but, wont be taking silly prices.
Day 1
At lunch, Zim 65-2.
Zim 7.2
Pak 1.47
Draw 5.2
I have some nice trades, and book is weighted against draw .. For now.
The draw has become popular, and, I just have to lay, 3.6 or so.
Heavily against the draw.
Tea, Zim 165-3
Zim 6.0
Pak 1.79
Draw 3.65
This is a decent price for Pakistan, but, they need wickets, as do my book.
Am backing Pak, laying draw, and going for a walk ..
That worked !!
Zim 234-8 at the close.
Zim 9
Pak 1.26
Draw 9
Have a very nice book, will post tomorrow, as had some bad news, and got distracted.
Zimbabwe batted on, really well, finally getting to 294.
I am pretty much flat, waiting for some more, silly prices.
Pakistan 46-1 after lunch, and they hit 1.40, after losing the 1st wicket.
The market, rightly, loves Pakistan, but, it also loves the draw.
I am taking stock, of both, at good levels, hoping to trade.
Zim 14
Pak 1.30
Draw 6.0
This is my current position on Betfair .. I have positions, elsewhere, which .. may be similar.
Pak 64-2 .
Before the wkt, I took a view .. To lay Pak at 1.30, and back the draw at 6.4.
On the wkt, I took back some 1.40 Pak, and draw is now 6.8, so, a profitable trade.
Fell asleep, and, didnt really miss much ..
At the close of play, Pak are meandering along, at 163-3, 131 behind.
Zim 19
Pak 1.28
Draw 5.9
Pak looking to score 400 .. so, Zim will be batting either late tmrrw, or early on the 4th day, maybe 125 behind.
A lot will depend how badly the pitch breaks etc .. but for now, have the draw onside, but, can probably recover, if it goes pear-shaped.
/////////////////////
Day 3
Start day 3, with a new ball due, in 8 or so overs.
I have a big position against Pak .. and am hoping for wkts.
Pak 184-4
Zim 15
Pak 1.29
Draw 6
Morning session, and noticeable how resilient the 1.28 line is for Pak .. lays below this level, are risky, but, so far, have been rewarded.
Before lunch, Pak crawl to 202-4
Zim 19
Pak 1.32
Draw 5.0
Have taken profits, and would think about laying the draw, sub 5.00
...............
Didn't manage to lay any draw .. unlucky, but, have nice book.
Pak 211-5 just before lunch
Zim 11
Pak 1.33
Draw 6.0
After lunch, Zim take 2 quick wkts. Pak 212-7 .. still 82 behind.
Am heavily with Zim ...
Pak 224-8
Zim 4.5
Pak 1.5
Draw 8.4
Pakistan 230 all out !! Zimbabwe finish off the tail cheaply this time, and now lead by 64.
Don't fancy draw.
Tea Day 3, and Zim 30-1, effectively 94 ahead.
The market rightly respects Pakistan, but, if Zim get a lead of 275, this wont be an easy chase.
I think the draw is unlikely, and a value lay.
My book is progressing :
Ajmal on, but, the spin is a slow spin, and doesnt look unplayable yet.
Zim 3.05
Pak 1.85
Draw 7.00
Tricky now ..
Pretty much as expected, Pak price is blowing, as they arent looking that attacking/problematic.
Zim 60-1
Zim 2.8
Pak 2.28
Draw 4.9
Drinks, 22 overs left in day, Zim 138-1 NET
Zim 2.96
Pak 2.5
Draw 3.85
Pakistan stating to look threatening, as pitch maybe gets harder to play .. but, they need wkts soon.
Draw starting to look like going fav .. which looks mental, but, sheer weight of money :
Zim 147-1 Net .. 195 overs left
Zim 2.96
Pak 2.92
Draw 3.1
Tricky chance missed by the keeper .. but, Zim looking fairly solid.
Zim 167 ahead ..
Zim 2.72
Pak 3.9
Draw 2.64
3 overs to go, and Pak blowing to some massive prices .. (8.00 flashed up for a few sces, I took 6.8)
WICKETS !!
2 key ones, late in the day :
Zim now 121-3 ..
Zim 3.00
Pak 2.5
Draw 3.2
.....................
Wow .. what a change, another wicket .. the night watchman ..
Zim 121-4 .. lead by 185 at the close
Zim 3.25
Pak 1.97
Draw 6.00
Unreal last 15 minutes .. easy to do, your absolutes .. hope, no one got hurt.
///////////////////////////
My book was starting to look v nasty, having laid Mr Draw, at 'silly' levels ..
I have positions elsewhere, but, this is my Betfair book.
/////////////////////////
Evening of the 3rd Day ..
Prices have settled :
Zim 2.98
Pak 2.08
Draw 5.3
The run line, for Zim to score 250 (129 more), is 2.00.
Some of my friends have huge positions, and I am trying to think things thru ..
The run-rate for the game so far, has been 2.35/over.
If Zim get 250, their lead will be 304 or so, leaving Pakistan to score 300, in about 120 overs.
Its hard to believe, a side wouldn't go for that, but, I am really not so sure.
I could easily see Pakistan effectively blocking after tea on Day 4, and see whats happening etc.
I think there is value in the draw price, and have shifted my position .. early wkts in the morning session, will be v bad .. but, think its worth the gamble.
The Zim price, is probably least volatile .. and cant make a decision, to Lay or Back .. thou, if pressed, I would Lay.
Looking forward to Day 4 - it should be as good a day of test cricket, as it gets ..
Day 4
Prices have really moved from overnite :
Pre-day 4 -
Zim 2.88
Pak 2.28
Draw 4.7
...
2 overs in :
Zim 2.94
Pak 2.66
Draw 3.9
Pitch so far, looks playable, but, a few balls, have been uncomfortable.
Zim batters, trying to get well behind the ball, and not to score, that quickly .. for now.
Draw obviously has to crash.
Lead now 199 .. Pakistans record in chasing 300+, is v poor .. I like the way Zim are going about this, so far ..
Zim 2.84
Pak 2.8
Draw 3.45
Theres the first wicket of the morning .. a poor shot, by Sibanda
Zim 2.96
Pak 2.18
Draw 5.5
Zim 141-5 .. 205 ahead.
Waller and Taylor at the crease now, and ball starting to behave oddly at times .. hope Draw goes lower, (to Lay)
Zim 149-5, lead by 213, and a market move for Zim .. pressure at 2.60, which I respect, but, have to lay.
Zim 2.56
Pak 2.66
Draw 4.3
Drinks, morning session
Zim 2.60
Pak 2.72
Draw 3.95
Tricky, really tricky .. but think, Zim are a Lay.
Wicket - 1st ball after drinks .. a really poor ball from Ajmal, and an even worse shot from Waller.
Zim 150-6
Zim 2.64
Pak 2.06
Draw 7.2
Wicket - the gae moving quickly now, as some cracks open.
Zim 156-7 .. 218 ahead .. Zim need 30-50 more.
Zim 2.98
Pak 1.6
Draw 20
Zim 167-7 - and the Draw wont go away .. 5 overs before lunch, Zim lead by 231
Zim 2.62
Pak 1.84
Draw 11.5
A new ball due, shortly ..
Lunch on Day 4
Zim 172-7 - so, 51 runs in the session, for 3 wickets, which were primarly poor shots.
Still plenty of time left in the game, but, I still feel a lead of 300 brings the draw into the game (currently, the lead is 235).
Zim 2.74
Pak 1.91
Draw 8.8
Soon after lunch, Taylor gives his wicket away.
Zim 177-8
Zim 2.8
Pak 1.67
Draw 20
Zim 195-8, lead by 259
Zim 2.62
Pak 1.83
Draw 12
Zim 199-9 , lead by 263
Zim 2.7
Pak 1.74
Draw 23
and so it ends, Zim 199 all out, setting Pakistan 264 to win.
Probably wont be straighforward, but, you would expect Pak to win.
Zim 2.72
Pak 1.62
Draw 50
Market love for pak returns .. in the change-over,
Zim 2.98
Pak 1.52
Draw 80
Solid start for Pakistan, with some very average bowling :
Pak 8-0
Zim 3.3
Pak 1.43
Draw 150
Pak 21-0 .. and, relatively untroubled, but, Zim havent bowled their best.
Zim 4.5
Pak 1.31
Draw 180
Wicket
Pak 30-1 .. leading edge
Zim 3.3
Pak 1.43
Draw 200
Pak run-rate is above 4 .. .. cue wkt ..
Wicket
Ali gets a duck ..
Pak 46-2
Zim 2.5
Pak 1.66
Draw 200
At Tea : Pak are 55-2, needing another 209 runs, from 124 overs ..
Zim 2.68 (touched 4.5 in this session)
Pak 1.59
Draw 210
My book has meandered a bit, and is basically flat, across all platforms.
Turnover for the game, just topped $1m, in their terms :
After Tea, Pak 70-2, need 194 more :
Zim 3.35
Pak 1.42
Draw 250
This game still might have a twist ..
Cue the twist : Pak 90-3, need 174 runs more, squeaky bum time, coming.
Zim 2.96
Pak 1.52
Draw 250
HUGE wicket :
Pak 100-4, Khan out for 29 .. Zim rightly favs now, can they see it home ?
Zim 1.86
Pak 2.18
Draw 200
Gonna be an exciting close .. can Zim hold their nerve ?
Pak 110-4 .. need 154 more
Zim 2.1
Pak 1.91
Draw 200
Drinks, final session : Pak 110-4 ..
Zim 2.06
Pak 1.94
Draw 250
Pitch starting to play-up . have moved 2/3rds green to Zim, which is medium risk, but, happy, with it.
Pak 114-4
Zim 1.97
Pak 2.00
Draw 200
Pak moving along, and am giving away a lot of profit.
Will wait, 15 more runs (128-4) now, before bailing.
Zim currently 2.88, and drifting quickly .. its a delicate time, to get involved, a real gamble .. and can be disheartening, to 'waste' 3 days work, if it goes against u .. but, that's the game ..
Wicket !!!
Pak 133-5
Zim 1.70
Pak 2.46
Draw 400
Really tense game now, but, Misbah is still at the crease .. this game has legs yet ..
Pak 140-5 .. 124 more wanted .. Tie anyone ??
Zim 1.89
Pak 2.14
Draw 200
Tie 75
Pak 149-5 .. 115 more wanted ..
Zim 2.20
Pak 1.82
Draw 200
Thats stumps .. Pak finish on 158-5, needing 106 more for the win.
Zim 2.5
Pak 1.66
Draw 260
A good days play, and both sides, had nervy moments. I think the mkt will think, Pak should win this, and the Pak price may shorten, a few ticks.
Day 5
No change in the market overnite, and we will all look forward to the pitch report.
I have weighted my book, towards a Pak win, but, not heavily so.
Pak 163-5 .. need 101 more.
Pitch looks ok, and with a few runs, the mkt starting to really like Pak.
Zim 2.72
Pak 1.54
Draw 450
Wicket !!!
Akmal caught Plumb in front, and mkt flips.
Zim 1.7
Pak 2.28
Draw 500
.....
A few balls later, and Zim bowling looks v threatening .. mkt wants to get with Zim ..
Zim 1.6
Pak 2.66
Draw 500
I think Pak price is attractive, but, cant back them .. 99 wanted, 4 wkts left.
174-6
V twitchy mkt ..
Zim 1.96
Pak 2.04
184-6 need 80
Zim 2.24
Pak 1.80
190-6 need 74, and mkt all over the place .. 2.5 Zim, down to 2.24 ??
Zim 2.36
Pak 1.74
Wicket !!!
197-6
Zim 1.74
Pak 2.3
Really, really twitchy
Pak 204-7 .. need 60
Zim 2.12
Pak 1.88
Just trading ... Some collosal arbs about .. 1.85 Pak, in one place, 1.65 to lay, in another ..
Pak 213-7
Zim 2.56
Pak 1.64
Wicket !!!
Ajmal goes.
Pak 214-8
Zim 1.59
Pak 2.66
Tie 50
....
and thats Lunch .. Pak 217-8 need 47
Great trading session, and think Zim at prices, are almost a bet.
Zim 1.64
Pak 2.54
Tie 50
I have positions elsewhere, which may be as good, or worse ..
After Lunch .. New ball due in 4 overs ..
Pak 229-8 need 35
Zim 2.10
Pak 1.91
Bailed on lunch position, for 1k loss
Pak 238-8
Zim 3.2
Pak 1.46
Tie 33
Misbah, playing great .. new ball taken .. any more twists ?
Game ended in 3 balls ..
238-9 ..an 2 balls later, Pakistan all out.
Zimbabwe win ..
As good a test, to watch and trade, as just about any .. save for my personal fav .. which, is another story.
Good nite all .. off to hit some golf balls :
Won a few quid ..
/////////////////////
Day 3
Start day 3, with a new ball due, in 8 or so overs.
I have a big position against Pak .. and am hoping for wkts.
Pak 184-4
Zim 15
Pak 1.29
Draw 6
Morning session, and noticeable how resilient the 1.28 line is for Pak .. lays below this level, are risky, but, so far, have been rewarded.
Before lunch, Pak crawl to 202-4
Zim 19
Pak 1.32
Draw 5.0
Have taken profits, and would think about laying the draw, sub 5.00
...............
Didn't manage to lay any draw .. unlucky, but, have nice book.
Pak 211-5 just before lunch
Zim 11
Pak 1.33
Draw 6.0
After lunch, Zim take 2 quick wkts. Pak 212-7 .. still 82 behind.
Am heavily with Zim ...
Pak 224-8
Zim 4.5
Pak 1.5
Draw 8.4
Pakistan 230 all out !! Zimbabwe finish off the tail cheaply this time, and now lead by 64.
Don't fancy draw.
Tea Day 3, and Zim 30-1, effectively 94 ahead.
The market rightly respects Pakistan, but, if Zim get a lead of 275, this wont be an easy chase.
I think the draw is unlikely, and a value lay.
My book is progressing :
Ajmal on, but, the spin is a slow spin, and doesnt look unplayable yet.
Zim 3.05
Pak 1.85
Draw 7.00
Tricky now ..
Pretty much as expected, Pak price is blowing, as they arent looking that attacking/problematic.
Zim 60-1
Zim 2.8
Pak 2.28
Draw 4.9
Drinks, 22 overs left in day, Zim 138-1 NET
Zim 2.96
Pak 2.5
Draw 3.85
Pakistan stating to look threatening, as pitch maybe gets harder to play .. but, they need wkts soon.
Draw starting to look like going fav .. which looks mental, but, sheer weight of money :
Zim 147-1 Net .. 195 overs left
Zim 2.96
Pak 2.92
Draw 3.1
Tricky chance missed by the keeper .. but, Zim looking fairly solid.
Zim 167 ahead ..
Zim 2.72
Pak 3.9
Draw 2.64
3 overs to go, and Pak blowing to some massive prices .. (8.00 flashed up for a few sces, I took 6.8)
WICKETS !!
2 key ones, late in the day :
Zim now 121-3 ..
Zim 3.00
Pak 2.5
Draw 3.2
.....................
Wow .. what a change, another wicket .. the night watchman ..
Zim 121-4 .. lead by 185 at the close
Zim 3.25
Pak 1.97
Draw 6.00
Unreal last 15 minutes .. easy to do, your absolutes .. hope, no one got hurt.
///////////////////////////
My book was starting to look v nasty, having laid Mr Draw, at 'silly' levels ..
I have positions elsewhere, but, this is my Betfair book.
/////////////////////////
Evening of the 3rd Day ..
Prices have settled :
Zim 2.98
Pak 2.08
Draw 5.3
The run line, for Zim to score 250 (129 more), is 2.00.
Some of my friends have huge positions, and I am trying to think things thru ..
The run-rate for the game so far, has been 2.35/over.
If Zim get 250, their lead will be 304 or so, leaving Pakistan to score 300, in about 120 overs.
Its hard to believe, a side wouldn't go for that, but, I am really not so sure.
I could easily see Pakistan effectively blocking after tea on Day 4, and see whats happening etc.
I think there is value in the draw price, and have shifted my position .. early wkts in the morning session, will be v bad .. but, think its worth the gamble.
The Zim price, is probably least volatile .. and cant make a decision, to Lay or Back .. thou, if pressed, I would Lay.
Looking forward to Day 4 - it should be as good a day of test cricket, as it gets ..
Day 4
Prices have really moved from overnite :
Pre-day 4 -
Zim 2.88
Pak 2.28
Draw 4.7
...
2 overs in :
Zim 2.94
Pak 2.66
Draw 3.9
Pitch so far, looks playable, but, a few balls, have been uncomfortable.
Zim batters, trying to get well behind the ball, and not to score, that quickly .. for now.
Draw obviously has to crash.
Lead now 199 .. Pakistans record in chasing 300+, is v poor .. I like the way Zim are going about this, so far ..
Zim 2.84
Pak 2.8
Draw 3.45
Theres the first wicket of the morning .. a poor shot, by Sibanda
Zim 2.96
Pak 2.18
Draw 5.5
Zim 141-5 .. 205 ahead.
Waller and Taylor at the crease now, and ball starting to behave oddly at times .. hope Draw goes lower, (to Lay)
Zim 149-5, lead by 213, and a market move for Zim .. pressure at 2.60, which I respect, but, have to lay.
Zim 2.56
Pak 2.66
Draw 4.3
Drinks, morning session
Zim 2.60
Pak 2.72
Draw 3.95
Tricky, really tricky .. but think, Zim are a Lay.
Wicket - 1st ball after drinks .. a really poor ball from Ajmal, and an even worse shot from Waller.
Zim 150-6
Zim 2.64
Pak 2.06
Draw 7.2
Wicket - the gae moving quickly now, as some cracks open.
Zim 156-7 .. 218 ahead .. Zim need 30-50 more.
Zim 2.98
Pak 1.6
Draw 20
Zim 167-7 - and the Draw wont go away .. 5 overs before lunch, Zim lead by 231
Zim 2.62
Pak 1.84
Draw 11.5
A new ball due, shortly ..
Lunch on Day 4
Zim 172-7 - so, 51 runs in the session, for 3 wickets, which were primarly poor shots.
Still plenty of time left in the game, but, I still feel a lead of 300 brings the draw into the game (currently, the lead is 235).
Zim 2.74
Pak 1.91
Draw 8.8
Soon after lunch, Taylor gives his wicket away.
Zim 177-8
Zim 2.8
Pak 1.67
Draw 20
Zim 195-8, lead by 259
Zim 2.62
Pak 1.83
Draw 12
Zim 199-9 , lead by 263
Zim 2.7
Pak 1.74
Draw 23
and so it ends, Zim 199 all out, setting Pakistan 264 to win.
Probably wont be straighforward, but, you would expect Pak to win.
Zim 2.72
Pak 1.62
Draw 50
Market love for pak returns .. in the change-over,
Zim 2.98
Pak 1.52
Draw 80
Solid start for Pakistan, with some very average bowling :
Pak 8-0
Zim 3.3
Pak 1.43
Draw 150
Pak 21-0 .. and, relatively untroubled, but, Zim havent bowled their best.
Zim 4.5
Pak 1.31
Draw 180
Wicket
Pak 30-1 .. leading edge
Zim 3.3
Pak 1.43
Draw 200
Pak run-rate is above 4 .. .. cue wkt ..
Wicket
Ali gets a duck ..
Pak 46-2
Zim 2.5
Pak 1.66
Draw 200
At Tea : Pak are 55-2, needing another 209 runs, from 124 overs ..
Zim 2.68 (touched 4.5 in this session)
Pak 1.59
Draw 210
My book has meandered a bit, and is basically flat, across all platforms.
Turnover for the game, just topped $1m, in their terms :
After Tea, Pak 70-2, need 194 more :
Zim 3.35
Pak 1.42
Draw 250
This game still might have a twist ..
Cue the twist : Pak 90-3, need 174 runs more, squeaky bum time, coming.
Zim 2.96
Pak 1.52
Draw 250
HUGE wicket :
Pak 100-4, Khan out for 29 .. Zim rightly favs now, can they see it home ?
Zim 1.86
Pak 2.18
Draw 200
Gonna be an exciting close .. can Zim hold their nerve ?
Pak 110-4 .. need 154 more
Zim 2.1
Pak 1.91
Draw 200
Drinks, final session : Pak 110-4 ..
Zim 2.06
Pak 1.94
Draw 250
Pitch starting to play-up . have moved 2/3rds green to Zim, which is medium risk, but, happy, with it.
Pak 114-4
Zim 1.97
Pak 2.00
Draw 200
Pak moving along, and am giving away a lot of profit.
Will wait, 15 more runs (128-4) now, before bailing.
Zim currently 2.88, and drifting quickly .. its a delicate time, to get involved, a real gamble .. and can be disheartening, to 'waste' 3 days work, if it goes against u .. but, that's the game ..
Wicket !!!
Pak 133-5
Zim 1.70
Pak 2.46
Draw 400
Really tense game now, but, Misbah is still at the crease .. this game has legs yet ..
Pak 140-5 .. 124 more wanted .. Tie anyone ??
Zim 1.89
Pak 2.14
Draw 200
Tie 75
Pak 149-5 .. 115 more wanted ..
Zim 2.20
Pak 1.82
Draw 200
Thats stumps .. Pak finish on 158-5, needing 106 more for the win.
Zim 2.5
Pak 1.66
Draw 260
A good days play, and both sides, had nervy moments. I think the mkt will think, Pak should win this, and the Pak price may shorten, a few ticks.
Day 5
No change in the market overnite, and we will all look forward to the pitch report.
I have weighted my book, towards a Pak win, but, not heavily so.
Pak 163-5 .. need 101 more.
Pitch looks ok, and with a few runs, the mkt starting to really like Pak.
Zim 2.72
Pak 1.54
Draw 450
Wicket !!!
Akmal caught Plumb in front, and mkt flips.
Zim 1.7
Pak 2.28
Draw 500
.....
A few balls later, and Zim bowling looks v threatening .. mkt wants to get with Zim ..
Zim 1.6
Pak 2.66
Draw 500
I think Pak price is attractive, but, cant back them .. 99 wanted, 4 wkts left.
174-6
V twitchy mkt ..
Zim 1.96
Pak 2.04
184-6 need 80
Zim 2.24
Pak 1.80
190-6 need 74, and mkt all over the place .. 2.5 Zim, down to 2.24 ??
Zim 2.36
Pak 1.74
Wicket !!!
197-6
Zim 1.74
Pak 2.3
Really, really twitchy
Pak 204-7 .. need 60
Zim 2.12
Pak 1.88
Just trading ... Some collosal arbs about .. 1.85 Pak, in one place, 1.65 to lay, in another ..
Pak 213-7
Zim 2.56
Pak 1.64
Wicket !!!
Ajmal goes.
Pak 214-8
Zim 1.59
Pak 2.66
Tie 50
....
and thats Lunch .. Pak 217-8 need 47
Great trading session, and think Zim at prices, are almost a bet.
Zim 1.64
Pak 2.54
Tie 50
I have positions elsewhere, which may be as good, or worse ..
After Lunch .. New ball due in 4 overs ..
Pak 229-8 need 35
Zim 2.10
Pak 1.91
Bailed on lunch position, for 1k loss
Pak 238-8
Zim 3.2
Pak 1.46
Tie 33
Misbah, playing great .. new ball taken .. any more twists ?
Game ended in 3 balls ..
238-9 ..an 2 balls later, Pakistan all out.
Zimbabwe win ..
As good a test, to watch and trade, as just about any .. save for my personal fav .. which, is another story.
Good nite all .. off to hit some golf balls :
Won a few quid ..
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