ICC Champions Trophy - Pakistand v Sri Lanka - Warm-up game - Edgbaston

Hmm,

My favourite ground .. which has had some drainage issues.

Game was supposed to start, was 12.45 .. some rain over the last few days, and we know unlucky .. some would say .. foolish, Edgbaston have been, installing new drainage.

Game was delayed, initially in 1hr chunks, and having previously been at games here, where games have gone this route, only to be called-off, I was dubious.

Especially, as its a warm-up, before a major competition, and players wont want to risk injury.

Finally, at about 4.30pm, 2 hrs before cut-off, the game was called off.

Disappointing.

2nd Test - England v N.Zealand - Headingley - Day 5

Well, this should be fun.

After, what some would say, an ill-conceived refusal of enforcing the follow-on, England are left needing 4 wkts ..

The only problem, is that rain washed out all play on Day 1, and, looks likely to hugely interrupt play on Day 5.

Weather watchers have had the market all over the place.

At COP on day 4, they had it ... And the market, was bouncing around ..

Eng 2.02
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 1.98

A massive move, early evening, saw :

Eng 1.53
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 2.88

This move, was based on a perceived window, from about 1.30 to 4.00pm, when it was thought, enough time would be available, to clean-up/play/get 4 wkts.

This move, was for v substantial sums .. But,they looked foolish, when morning forecasts were a good deal bleaker.

5.30 am .. They had it. ..

Eng 1.84
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 2.24

I had to back the draw at this price .. Ad was well rewarded, as 3 hrs later ..

Eng 2.40
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 1.7. .. I even laid some 1.60 ..

9.30am, and it currently sits

Eng 1.92
N.Zealand 1000
Draw 2.10

As you can see, it's a very volatile market, and one likely to be that way, for most of the day, as people second guess the state of the outfield/time to get the pitch fit for play/break in the clouds ..

It's free to go in, so, am on the rattler ..

////////////////////////////////////////////

Intended to update this in real-time, but, as ever, got wet/busy, so, will have to do it retro ..

On the rattler back, and it was .. as expected .. a very volatile mkt, with professional money, coming for England, at times, when rain/drizzle seemed likely to scupper them.

In the end, they got way with it .. but not before Mr Draw went odds on, and in the end, final - terminal rain, may have been only 30 mins away.

The internet weather sites, only show generalised forecasts, and is not tailored to the needs of sports bettors, who want depth of rain/bad light, for an exceptionally localised region/time.

I wouldn't blame them .. and even more expensive mechanisms, still need a pair of eyes on the ground, to confirm what weather maps say .. I have often been at games, where sites say it should be raining, but, its so, fine, it doesn't register, and vice versa.

Interesting, that playing conditions seem to have changed. NZ restarted batting, with light drizzle .. and played on, thru it. In olden times, a scent of a drop, would have had them scurrying. Bad light, also, wasn't considered .. or maybe it was, and discarded .. one never really knows.

Anyway, got wet, and had fun .. which is the main thing.

Won a few quid.

Posted with Blogsy

2nd Test - England v N.Zealand - Headingley

Predictably wet.

Eng 1.88

NZ  12

Draw 2.34

Rain, pre game, saw Mr Draw go odds, on, and its likely there will be only 50 overs on day 1.

Days 2,3,and 4, looks much warmer .. so, on this basis, think draw is a lay, especially at 2.00 or so.


Some interesting Test Draw Analysis, from Ric Finlay, who runs a database service, in Aus.

% of Tests, Drawn

Leeds 25.4

Edgbaston  31.9

Lords   37.3

Nottingham  37.9

Oval    37.9

Manchester   46  ...

Rains a bit, in Manchester.


///////////////////////////////////////////////

So, all of Day 1 lost.

They can probably make up, 8 overs or so a day, with good weather.

Prices, pre-toss

Eng 2.86

NZ  13

Draw 1.76

.....

Eng win toss, and Bat

Eng 3.0

NZ   14

Draw 1.71

...........................

Have taken Red.

At Lunch, Eng 67-3 ..

Eng 2.68 ... looks desperately short, and have laid

NZ   12  .. about right, maybe 2 points too big

Draw 1.80  .. looks big

/////////////

COP  .. Eng 337-7

Eng 2.2

NZ  40

Draw 1.91

.. Have Red book, going no-where ..

Game liquidity seems to be affected by lack of Indian money, as most bookies are hiding for cover, waiting for IPL fixing storm, to pass by.

//////////////////

Start day 3 .. big move for Eng, on the back of improved weather for Tues.

Had to lay Eng at 1.8x, before NZ bat ..

NZ get to 50, for 0 wkts, and I take all profits, getting rid of red, and making a cup of tea.

Wkts then fall .. NZ really fragile, and, in retrospect, was lucky they got off to such a good start.

....................................................

Surprised Eng didn't enforce the follow-on .. u do wonder sometimes, if commercial interests, are at the heart of some of these decisions .. (get more people to ground, Day 4/5).

Anyway, have flat book.

YB40 Warwickshire v Nottingham - Edgbaston

We should know by now, Edgbaston = wet/windy, and generally miserable.

This was no exception.

Reduced game, down from 37, to finally 30.

Warwickshire been generally below par, all season, and Nottingham have a v decent batting attack.

Thought Notts were a gift at 1.66, and when they won the toss and inserted, they went to 1.50, in a v thin market.

Early wkts, for Warwicks, meant a relatively low early score, of 186 or so .. not enuf.

Notts won easy.

1st Test - England v N.Zealand - Lords

Been really busy, and have only small trades on this game, till now.

End Day 2 :

Eng 232 AO, NZ 153/4 .. Mcslogger/Williamson, still in.

Eng 4.0

NZ 4.0

Draw 2.0


NZ been as high as 30, which looks big now.

Weather v hard to read, but looks like rain at points, on all 3 remaining days.

At the prices, laying NZ , small.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

End day 3, and NZ went much bigger, but didnt buy back fancy prices.

Weather F/C has cleared a lot ..


Eng  1.48

NZ  5.0

Draw 7.6


Laid chunks of draw.

//////////////////////////////////////////

And so, Eng won in 4 days.

Props to Stuart Broad .. never really been a fan, as he seems to have mood swings, but, his batting came good, followed by a match winning bowling spell. Bresnan must be choking .. cant be fun, being the guy on the fringes, watching the guy u would like to replace, play a blinder.

Betfair Pricing

Following the (declined) bid, from CVC there was an exceptional comment, on the markxdavies bog.

I reproduce it here : (From Graffiti : ) link is : http://www.markxdavies.com/2013/05/14/for-sale-bidders-welcome/#comments

Betfair’s problem is a very simple one. Have they ever put enough thought into their pricing?

Market liquidity operates along an S-curve / sigmoid function. Initially it is hard work (the first early players can’t get matched at a fair market-clearing price, or bets they leave up are unmatched). Once a market reaches a critical mass, then the conflicting opinions kick in, and the betting turnover starts increasing at a much faster incremental rate, with only a proportionately smaller increase in the number of players.

Betfair need to address the S-curve with their pricing. It just isn’t good enough to have the same pricing policy for a major liquid market, as it is for a side market where there is a danger of liquidity drying up.

If a layer operates in a big main market, they pay normal charges. But someone putting liquidity up into a side market adds a much greater value to Betfair’s diversity of markets/betting events. There has to be the introduction of a financial incentive for people, especially key big layers, to make it cheaper to operate in a market which will be in essence a lot less profitable for them (their bets won’t get matched as easily/often, they will have to give away value to get anything matched).

Betfair’s pricing is almost exclusively based on profit/loss, whereas it needs to be changed to reflect liquidity, especially urgently needing to focus on favouring people who leave bets up in illiquid markets. The time and effort people put into side markets makes them proportionately much harder work and more hassle. This must be reflected by Betfair in its pricing, and is why Betfair’s current pricing is, well, a bit meh.

Betfair needs at the extreme, where a market has dropped below critical mass, to not just offer zero commission to big layers, but if the little fish come and nibble away, paying 5% commission on their side of the bets, why not give maybe even half of the commission to the layer. You would then in effect have NEGATIVE commission on bets in these markets to the layer, whilst a boost in turnover overall, with Betfair getting half of the commission, is better than getting none at all, surely?  .

A market maker would suddenly find that markets which were much more costly to them to price up (not just in pecuniary terms, but in time terms too) would suddenly be back in play and worthwhile participating in.

You then reduce these discounts/incentives once sizeable liquidity has been reached.

There is something intrinsically valuable to Betfair in having as many markets being offered, with as deep liquidity as possible. Ever thinner and narrower side markets drive people away. The reason side markets have shrivelled is solely because of a faulty mix of pricing/incentives to people to get involved in them.

There is also huge room for a new type of market-making. The “crack trading team” is a throwback to the stone age of bookmaking, and an embarrassment for Betfair. What is obvious, is the crack team often don’t understand pricing in the internet era. The crack trading team needs to be disbanded, it is a waste of time and money. Betfair haven’t spotted what to replace them with. I remember Betfair buying a small company/startup which analysed betting patterns (to stop linked accounts, through intelligent analysis of them..?). That is where the future of pricing is, that is where Betfair will find the answer to their liquidity problems.

A large part of me thinks the Betfair sportsbook and exchange separation is a huge mistake. Ebay made a strategic decision to show less information/clutter to new users, to keep it initially simple, but more frequent users were allowed a much more full set of information. I think the exchange and sportsbook should be merged, where someone who logs on in the UK (to keep things simple), they will see say 5/6, and take 5/6 on a bet, but behind the scenes you could actually give them 1.95 or whatever the current higher price available is on the exchange. That would keep things simple for Joe Public, but bearing in mind Yu and Morana’s epithet when they spoke together on record saying they could see that people kept coming back and playing more when they got a better run for their money (hence why Yu was in favour of the Betfair education/statistical database tools etc), this would combine great value, with simplicity. I suspect the crack trading team don’t care how profitable Betfair is, they probably care how much money is diverted onto their poor prices (often with knockback size).

Betfair should be a £5billion+ company. It should be the biggest and best bookmaker of all. I don’t even think that gambling bets should be the flagship profit for the Betfair exchange to match, but that is by the by. It would be great to see Betfair in 2015 aspiring not to be Paddy Power 2013 “Lite”, but to be Betfair 2013 “heavy”, if you see what I mean.

Graffiti understands exchanges, and acknowledges how 'used' Market Makers feel, and their general dissatisfaction, with the current pricing regime.

Why cant betfair management, see the same issues ?

Family Fun day, at Worcester ..

Was no fun ...

So, to set the scene ..

Have just spent the last 36 hours, on the road, or at Ascot, for a small profit, and now have to go and work at Worcester race-course.

The kit is different, so, obviously, we forget 2 vital screws, and we are on the back-foot.

Its raining (Cricket at Worcester, was reduced to a 16 over game), and people are few and far between.

Eventually create a work-around for the 2 missing screws .. , and we are working, trying to drum up business, from the reasonable crowd.

This was hard work .. the punters in the midlands are v price sensitive, so, in a competitive ring, u get v few mug bets.


All day, business was pathetic, taking maybe £300 a race, for the first 7 races, of the 8 race card.

Results were mixed, so, were just losing going into the last race.


We put up the prices for the last, and 1st bet we lay, is a 40/1 chance, £50 e-w.

This was solidly supported to 14/1 .. we laid a bet of £100 at 14/1, just before the off, and its a loser for us, of about £2k.

Its a active betting race, and also just before the off, we lay £200-e.w, to the owner of a 9/1 chance.

For the first time, we are holding over a £1000 in field money, but even thou the race was over 2 miles, we knew our fate a long way out, as they finished 1-2.

Its a right kick in the bollox, to lose £2k, on the last, and make it a losing week, even before expenses.

Bookmaking, is really hard - and it wasnt an especially fun drive home.

2 Day Ascot Meeting - May 10/11

2nd Day out at Ascot, which starts with a 5.30pm start on the Friday, followed by 1.30pm, on the Saturday.

So, just the 200 mile round trip x 2, and another 8 hrs wasted in the car.

The Friday night meeting starts too early, so, people cant get there from work, and even thou the price to get in, a very reasonable £13, not more than 4000 people attended.

This is v disappointing for the track, but its a theme up and down the country.

Nottingham racecourse must have gone to huge time/expense, or a similar 2 day fixture, and the crowd last night, was just pathetic.

Anyway, back at Ascot, had more trouble with keyboards not working, so had a delayed start.

Actually read the card v well, and really fancied 3 of the 6 winners. As such, even thou I only took £5k in total bets, I managed to keep £1500 of it, which was a nice change.

L-o-n-g drive home, after some traffic mayhem .. maybe getting back, at mid-nite.

Need to try and fix keyboard, for tomorrow (today), but its well knackered.

Visit a 24hr ASDA, and buy 2 usb keyboards for £10. Get that to work, have a quick look at form, for today's meetings, and hit the sack, at 1.30am .. never got to watch any of the golf, from The Players championship.

zzzzzzzzzzz


Woke up at 7am, stiff, with back-ache .. and re-start trip back to Ascot.

Load all kit, after its sat in garage re-charging, and finally meet colleagues, at 9.30 am.

I am doing the driving .. more stress, and when we get to Ascot, try and re-assemble kit.

I started, 90 mins before 1st race .. and everything is going fine, then, a software/server problem, delays everything, by 45 mins. Stress levels going thru the roof, (u can see other bookmakers taking bets, and it hurts), finally, get that fixed, and then the signals from the laptop to electronic board, get lost.

NO !!!

Re-start drivers on laptop, etc, and finally, can start taking bets, 20 mins before the 1st race.

On-course bookmakers these days, have to be computer experts, gambling experts, people persons, and be willing to get wet ..

It starts to rain ...

Some cover, but, people stay out of the rain, and business is crap.

After 5 races, battery power on 2nd laptop goes .. and I am rapidly losing it.

Get thru the day, and finish winning £900 after expenses .. big deal.

Drive home, and decide to stop in at Warwick races on the way back, as I fancy a horse in the last.

Get there for the 3d race, and just chill, till the 6th race, and my horse, drifts from 7/2 to 9/2, but wins handily !! Win £1200 on that, so, thats a pretty good end to the day.

Happy days ..

Drive home, and mind wanders, so, take-wrong turn on motorway .. finally get in a 10pm.

Been a long 2 days  ....


Off to Worcester later ..

Phil Ivey and Crockfords

So, details ares now emerging, as to how he won the money.

For those not abreast of events, Phil Ivey is a widely recognised Top 10 poker player, and obviously has fantastic memory recall/visualisation skills.

He is a huge high-stakes gambler .. some would say, de-gen .. playing sports/craps/golf for astronomical sums of money.

This life, should make it easier to actually play v big in a casino, and .. so it came to pass.

It is said, some 10's of Billions of playing cards, are used by casinos each yr, and, its natural, the manufacturing process, is occasionally flawed, so, that some cards, are recognisable, due to a design flaw on the back.

Imperfections in the backs of the playing cards, used by Crockfords, would enable someone to vary their bets, in Punto Banco, where the amount bet, is established before the start of each hand. In this game, an 8 or 9, are exceptionally valuable to a player, raising your edge in excess of 20%.

I imagine he waited for each new hand, saw what the first card was, before it was dealt, and bet, either big or small, based on this.

Over 2-3 days, you would have to win - and the £7.8million he won, shows, how .. by betting up to £150k a hand, edges multiply .. whether they be for the house, or the player.

As Crockfords provided the cards, I don't see hes done anything wrong.

I reckon, he will get paid.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214409/The-7m-streak-luck-Mayfair-casino-thinks-good-true.html

Bank Holiday Monday, at Windsor

Windsor is a lovely course, attracting good horses, and a very fair number of paying public.

To encourage a younger crowd, they hold "Family Fun" days. One such day, was yesterday - a Bank Holiday. (which usually makes the roads a nightmare .. and this was no different, as the journey which should take 1hr40, took me 3hrs)

I would estimate, 5-6000 people attended .. unfortunately, the majority of which, were in a section f the racecourse, called the Silver Ring .. as that was where various Family attractions were located, so, business at my end the track, was only fair.

I had 2 decent punters, betting with me ..

One guy walked up, and asked for 600 at 33/1 .. that's to lose 20k, and I halved him .. laying it to lose 10k.

This is a v decent bet to lay .. not that most punters will acknowledge you need accommodating bookmakers.

The horse in question, only beat 2 home, and on the day, I laid the punter 500 at 5 or 6/1 a horse in each race, of which, only 1 won, so I beat him.

Another punter, was also betting in 400-600 sums .. but, my total hold, on the day, was 12k, so .. you can see, just how much, of my volume, came from these 2 punters.

On the day, 3 favs won, and I lost 400, plus expenses .. which, for 12 hours work, isn't much fun.

One day, I will actually win.

On Course/Off Course thoughts

This may be a little deep, but, its a topic that needs debate.

The present UK horse-racing markets, are attended by .. an average, of say 40 licenced bookmakers per-day, who make a market for each race, and the Starting Price for each race, is derived from these (unpaid) professionals.

These bookmakers, all have access to the exchange models, which bet to 101% .. virtually an efficient market, but, have far greater expenses than the Internet, so, not unfairly, they have to build in margin.

Just how much margin, is the rub.

If they bet, for, say 2% per runner, in a 10 horse race, they make take money, but .. informed people, with access to mobile betting platforms, may decide, not to bet in cash on the course, but via their mobile, into an exchange.

If they bet for 1% per runner, they are probably likely to operate at a loss .. not good .. but, would increase the money being attracted to the racecourse, and eventually, will strengthen the rings.

The other debate, is how much money, the on-course ring, attracts from the High Street firms. I am led to believe, these firms, have all but stopped hedging back into the rings .. effectively saying, they don't care, what SP, each race is returned to.

Either, this is because the amount of money traded in betting shops these days, is in such decline, it doesn't matter, or, there are more efficient ways of dealing with it.

So, if you were an on-course bookmaker, what margin, would you put on your board .. ?

Its tricky, and a lot depends, on whether you are thinking short-term, or long-term.

I am a firm believer, rings should bet to an average 10-12% over-round .. but, understand, this is not realistic, an a cold, poorly attended day.

At some stage, racecourses may pay bookmakers to attend, or greatly reduce the costs for standing, .. or, more likely, they will do nothing, believing all bookies make money.

On-course bookies, do not operate cartels, and .. it is a free market, which, often leads to disputes. There is much jealousy in the rings .. its .. easy to take money, in good locations on the race-course, but, its almost impossible, in bad locations .. so, what do you do ?

Good location bookies, will want to bet to a good margin, making profits. Bad locations, wont care, as they take little money, at good or bad profit margins, so, .. normally, either bet to absurd margins .. good or bad.

This gives the rings a bad name .. the public often gets ripped off, knowingly or not ..

(( As an aside, its unreal, how ill-informed some people are .. obviously, they don't care .. betting for v small amounts .. but, often, have taken sizable bets, when, the bookmaker next door .. 2 yards away, is offering a better price))

The whole debate, is a minefield, with each case, aggressively argued by each vested interest.


At a later stage, I will return to this topic, to look at each area, in more detail.

Poker in the Uk

Havent played that much, thou, not for lack of choice.

The structure at my local casino is different, from S.Africa.

The Tourneys all start at 9pm, (later than I would like), and allow re-buys/re-entry, till 11pm, in most of these games, which .. with 60-100 players, means the final table is 3-4pm .. way past my bed-time.

Thats a bit of a shame, as the overall levels of play, is better, than I am used to, and am learning etc, but, the late nights are v draining .. so, have largely avoided.

Will try look for a 2 day .. tourney, which suits my schedule.

YB40 - Durham v Essex

Sunday Trains .. £150 return, for a 4 hr journey .. no thx.

Nice day, and never been to Chester-Le-Street .. one day .. when its not so cold/expensive.

Pre-match,

Durham 1.63

Essex 2.50

...  £15 enty .. was £16 yesteday at Leicester

Essex win the toss, and elect to field.

Durham .. Mustard, Collingwood, Benkenstein, Borthwick

Essex  .. Foster, Quinney, Mahmood, Bopara (Eng recall ??)

Pre-game .. £8k traded


Durham 3-0 after 1, Durham 1.80 .. no liquidity

Durham 3-0 after 2, Essex fav .. 1.90 .. v v thin

Durham 7-0 after 3, Essex 1.88ish

Durham 12-0 after 4, Essex 1.86

Durham 23-0 after 5, Durham favs, in a desperate mkt ..1.8 ? £30k traded

Durham 26-0 after 6

Wkt - Mustard 11 from 19, Essex 1.84

Durham 29-1 after 7, Essex 1.72

Durham 30-1 after 8, Essex 1.68

Durham 37-1 after 9, Essex 1.70

Wkt - Collingwood 7 from 13, Essex 1.50

Durham 39-2 after 10, Essex 1.48

Wkt - Stoneman 18 from 25 .. Essex 1.26

Durham 40-3 after 12, Essex 1.28

Durham 47-3 after 14, Essex 1.32 .. £53k traded

Durham 50-3 after 16, Essex 1.38

Durham 64-3 after 18, Essex 1.42

Durham 78-3 after 20, Essex 1.45

Durham 91-3 after 22, Essex 1.47

Wkt - Benkenstein 16 from 29

Durham 103-4 after 24, Essex 1.35

Durham 117-4 after 26, Essex 1.3x ..

Durham 127-4 after 28, Essex 1.37

Durham 139-4 after 30, Essex 1.40  .. £85k traded

Wkt - Stokes 51 from 64, Durham 140-5 .. Essex 1.32

Durham 147-5 after 32, Essex 1.2x

Durham 160-5 after 34, Essex 1.28

Durham 173-5 after 36, Essex 1.29

Durham 187-5 after 37, Essex 1.3x

Durham 196-5 after 38, Essex 1.40

Durham 200-5 after 39, Essex 1.31

Durham 209-5 after the 40 overs .. Essex 1.33


Probably 25 runs short, but, we will see.


Heres the reply ..

Essex 8-0 after 1, Essex 1.20

Essex 16-0 after 2, Essex 1.15

Essex 24-0 after 3, Essex 1.10

Essex 26-0 after 4, Essex 1.09

Essex 35-0 after 6, Essex 1.10

Essex 48-0 after 8, Essex 1.08 .. no atmosphere, and Tv comms seemed bored.

Essex 60-0 after 10, Essex 1.07


I seen enough .. going to hit some golf balls.


Tiny trades .. small loss ..   £140k traded .. IPL £12m .. so far ...


Hit the ball ok ...

Essex 166-3 after 32, Essex 1.05  .. £270k traded

Essex 178-3 after 34, Essex 1.03

Essex trying to make this harder than it should be :

Essex 199-6 .. need 11 from 17  , Essex 1.04


Essex win

YB40 - Leicesteshire v Gloucestershire

2nd YB 40 game .. Both sides, weakish, with star names of Sarwan, Cobb, Obrien

Bowling on both sides, looks v light.

Some rain around, but it's only thin stuff, and expect a full game.

Leic 1-0 after 1 over, 1.72 Glouc favs .. Overcast

Leic 10-0 after 2, 1.78 gloucs

Leica 20-0 after 3, leic favs 1.88

Leic 34-0 after 4, leic 1.74

Leic 41-0 after 5, leic 1.68 .. V thin mkt

Leic 50-0 after 6, leic 1.64

Leic 52-0 after 7, leic 1.66

Leic 63-0 after 8, leic 1.54 .. Cobb and obrien battin well

Leic 67-0 after 9, leic 1.54

Leic 71-0 after 10, leic 1.55 .. Best start by leic, for a long time - 275 looks possible

Leic 74-0 after 11, leic 1.57 .. No mkt - 98k matched

Leic 83-0 after 12, leic 1.51

Leic 85-0 after 13, leic 1.51

Leic 89-0 after 14, leic 1.52

Leic 103-0 after 15, leic 1.48 .. Cobb 54, obrien 48

Leic 110-0 after 16, 50 for obrien, leic 1.42

Leic 126-0 after 18, leic 1.30

Leic 142-0 after 20, leic 1.25

Leic 162-0 after 22, leic 1.20 .. Not sure gloucs have any ideas, how to stem, coming onslaught.

Leic 178-0 after 24, leic 1.18 .. Leic bowling not the best, but .. This is a big total coming ..

100 for obrien, from 79 balls.

Wkt - obrien 104 from 84, leic 193-1 after 26.2 .. 1.18

Leic 212-1 after 28,leic 1.14

Wkt - Sarwan 8 from 9,leic 1.18

Leic 216-2 after 30, leic 1.20

100 for Cobb, 224-2 after 31.2 .. Leic 1.19

Wkt - Ekersley 10 from 11, 232-3 .. Leic 1.21

Leic 234-3 after 33, leic 1.23

Wkt - Cobb 107 from 99, leic 241-4, after 33.3 .. Leic 1.23

243-4 after 34, power play taken, leic 1.26

Wkt - Thakor 2 from 4, leic stumbling a bit .. 248-5 after 35.2 .. 1.28


Leic 261-5 after 36, leic 1.25

Leic 269-5 after 37, leic 1.26

Wkt - Thornely 4 from 5, 271-6 after 37.2 .. Leic 1.27

Leic 274-6 after 38, leic 1.24

Wkt - Boyce 28 from 20, leic 1.27

Wkt - Sykes 0 from 1, leic 1.29

Leic 279-8 after 39, leic 1.31

Leic finish on 289 .. Not bad, but short of what looked likely, after a v decent start.

Might be a game. Leic 1.27

Have a decent book, £226 k matched so far on Betfair .. IPL getting all the traders .

Klinger and Marshall open for Gloucs

Here's the reply.

Gloucs 2-0 after 1, leics 1.28

Wkt - Marshall 1 from 5, leics 1.17

Gloucs 8-1 after 2, leics 1.17

Gloucs 14-1 after 3, leics 1.14

Wkt - run- out .. Dent 4 .. Gloucs 15-2 .. Leics 1.06

Gloucs 19-2 after 4, leics 1.06

Wkt - Gidman 4 from 1, Leics 1.04

Wkt - another run- out, and this is done.

Klinger 15 from 10, 27-4 after 5,leics1.01

Gloucs 38-4 after 8, leics 1.00


Seen enough ..

Just seen a fantastic link from the Leicestershire foxes, 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU4lHaWqadM

This is the first time I have seen social media used in this way ..

Great work.

YB40 - Essex v Hampshire

1st game of the new season :

Traded / matched figs on Betfair ..

30 mins before the start ..£ 3k

Hampshire probably win the toss, (am not really watching), but have shorted from 1.85 to 1.76

5 mins to go .. £12k traded .. this is poor ..

Hampshire did win the toss, and elected to field.

9 overs in, Essex 39-0 .. 1.88 .. £26k traded .. which, is eye-wateringly low.

For a game on sky etc .. IPL major draw .. market-makers/seeders required, but, they have no reason for doing so, so, dont.

Essex scored a decentish, 244 .. on a high-scoring, small ground, and Carbury/Vince, just toy with the the opposition, to get Hampshire home, with 10 overs to spare. Huge win for Hampshire.

Total matched, £1m.

 

Posted with Blogsy

Ascot

This is a proper Grade 1 Track ..

We got in, 2 hours before racing .. (Bookies need to be there, 1 hour before racing, to be able to 'claim' your pitch ..), and it is great, they now have a drop-off point, where bookies can drop off all the kit, and not have to lug it all from the car-parks.

This kit, normally includes ;

A Digital Board
1 or 2 heavy duty batteries, to power the board/printers
Assorted printers
Assorted signs / name plates
Sometimes, a joint .. which self-assembles .. thou you can rent, for £25 a day

We had a fair drive thru, negotiating via some back-roads, which only taxi-drivers and bookies know.

We had high hopes .. as the car-parks were v busy, 2 hours before the first race.

Our kit, had some issues .. the bracket which holds the digital joint, was badly drilled, so it wouldnt fit properly. There is no-wi-fi on the course .. at least for us, and getting a cell-signal, is v tricky. The laptop software, was faulty .. so, all these problems, were both draining and an inconvenience.

Unfortunately, 'free' day, encourages locals to have a day-out in the sun, and just cruise, and it wasn't really a betting crowd .. so, although we had paid £60k for our pitch .. (14 days racing, a year), takings were v average, and results were poor, (including a winner for The Queen), so, we lost. It didnt help, about 70 other bookmakers turned out .. encouraged, as it was free-to-bet .. there were just too many bookies, for the crowd.

Am not really sure, the £60k was a good investment .. there are 2 meetings, next Friday night/Saturday, which will be a better guide, but, at this stage, its a disappointment.

All-in, we left, at 9.00am, and got back, at 8pm. Spent £700 in expenses, and lost betting .. so, have some headway, to make-up.

Racecouse thoughts

On the way to Ascot .. got a very decent pitch, in tattersalls, and its fee entry for the public.

This is a big deal, for racecourse's ..

Currently, most racecourses charge between £12 and £26 for Tattersalls entry, with just Towcester racecourse, to my knowledge, being free entry, every day. (I am a big fan, of Towcester .. its a v well run course, who get good attendances, and make a return from a great hospitality business, and selling the picture rights/food concessions).

As this is the fist race day of the season, Ascot have given locals, free entry passes, and a big crowd, of maybe 10000, is expected .. especially as summer, may be finally on its way.

Ascot is a grade 1 track, which spent .. maybe £40 million on a re-design, some years ago, and really decent races are run. We have only occasionally, bet there before, and it will be an interesting day .. especially as its a southern track, and people who come, might be expected to have a few bets.

There are many things currently wrong with the racing structure in the UK. Each vested interest, will have their own favourite, but some of mine, are :

1. Starting Price .. manipulation.

The reader should understand, betting shops are relayed the current betting prices, on events such as greyhounds/horses, from the bookmaker's working at those meetings.

These bookies, work to a betting over-round, of probably 1-2% per runner .. so, a 6 horse race, might have a 10% over-round, whilst a 20 runner race, might be 20%.

A 6 dog greyhound race, will always have an over-round of 20%, and its just theft.

On many occasions, a dog will be showing .. say 4/1, and this is the price, that's being bet, up and down the country, in the 8000 betting shops. On Betfair, the dog will usually be bigger, sometimes much, much bigger.
Last week, I saw a dog, that was 17/1 on Betfair .. and just 7/2 in the shops.

This cannot be right .. its blatant theft.

I understand a bookie has to have a profit margin, but, the un-informed many, need to be protected.

SP has to include the betting exchange mechanism, like it or not.


2. Bookmakers terms, are not uniform.

Generally, in a 8 horse race, each-way terms, are 1/5th the price, for a place. Some races, (normally, when the favourite is odds-on, these terms are unprofitable for bookmakers), and racecourse bookies, can legally change the terms .. as long as they are displayed. So, they might go, 1/7th the odds a place .. which is probably more realistic.

The problem is, all bookmakers bet differently, and its easy for the general public to get ripped-off - especially if they are casual punters. I am sure, standardised each-way terms will come, soon .. but, its already been too long.

3.Betting shops, wont lay a bet.

This a a thorny one, as these firms are now run by bean counters, who understand, their overheads, and want to dissuade professionals from betting, with them.

The bean counter will say, he wants to lay, the horse, or whatever, to a regular mug, who will more than likely, lose it back, on other bets. This makes business sense, but, gives the racing industry, a bad image ..

If a horse is available, at 7/2, to a mug, it should be laid to lose .. say £50, to anyone. I understand, people can walk round, the v many betting shops, placing bets in each one, and v significant liabilities can accrue, but, that's a process, the betting shops, need to manage - thru the pricing mechanism.