Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Zimbabwe v Pakistan - 2nd Test - Harare

This Blog is dedicated to the memory of Ray Joseph, 1939-2013  .. the_mgt, on the UBF.


I am starting to really like the Zimbabwe team, who, only have a few stars, and huge debt, so, the players don't tend to get paid, but, are playing for the thrill of playing a genuine world class side, in Pakistan.

Some might argue, only Ajmal in the Pakistan side, is truly world class .. But, each to their own.

The 1st Test, was held only a few days ago, at the same venue .. Harare Sports club .. The 2nd test was scheduled for Bulawayo, but, The Zimbabwe union reckon they could save $50k, by moving the game, so, it seemed sensible.

Some concern, the resulting pitch, may crack etc .. But, that's to be seen.

That would be especially worrying, should Zim have to bat last .. Given Ajmal took 11 wickets in the previous test ..

Anyway, Zim won the toss, and decided to bat. Taylor back as captain, after the birth of his first child.

Opening betting :

Zim 7.6
Pak 1.33
Draw 7

The draw is a huge price, as people think the pitch will become a minefield etc.

I expect Pakistan to win, and will bias my book towards them, but, wont be taking silly prices.

Day 1

At lunch, Zim 65-2.

Zim 7.2
Pak 1.47
Draw 5.2

I have some nice trades, and book is weighted against draw .. For now.

The draw has become popular, and, I just have to lay, 3.6 or so.

Heavily against the draw.

Tea, Zim 165-3

Zim 6.0
Pak 1.79
Draw 3.65

This is a decent price for Pakistan, but, they need wickets, as do my book.

Am backing Pak, laying draw, and going for a walk ..

That worked !!

Zim 234-8 at the close.

Zim 9
Pak 1.26
Draw 9

Have a very nice book, will post tomorrow, as had some bad news, and got distracted.

Zimbabwe batted on, really well, finally getting to 294.

I am pretty much flat, waiting for some more, silly prices.

Pakistan 46-1 after lunch, and they hit 1.40, after losing the 1st wicket.

The market, rightly, loves Pakistan, but, it also loves the draw.

I am taking stock, of both, at good levels, hoping to trade.

Zim 14

Pak 1.30

Draw 6.0

This is my current position on Betfair .. I have positions, elsewhere, which .. may be similar.









Pak 64-2 .

Before the wkt, I took a view .. To lay Pak at 1.30, and back the draw at 6.4.

On the wkt, I took back some 1.40 Pak, and draw is now 6.8, so, a profitable trade.

Fell asleep, and, didnt really miss much ..





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Monday, 9 September 2013

Players at the table

3rd time in a week, and almost tired of playing .. will definitely give the normal Monday nite tourny, a miss.

$200 Hold-em Tourny, which gets 40 high quality players.

Am getting to know all the players styles .. most are defensive, and its easy to see why they so dislike my aggressive style, as they want to see cheap flops, hit there hand, and get paid.

My interruptions, scupper this, and I am easily the most hated player at the table.

One or two, with WSOP experience, recognise etc, and adjust, but, most, just give me aggro, but, only call my raises, with top 5% premium hands.

Played fantastic early, and was able to get a playable stack, when my Pocket 9♦, 9♠, held up against Pocket 2♦, 2♣, and later, Pocket 7♥, 7♦, held against Pocket 6♠,6♣.

Down to 20 players, and there is a very enjoyable Israeli to my right, some v tight nits to my left, who I raise relentlessly, and a handicapped (Wheelchair) player, in seat 10 - called Jamie.

Jamie, is a good player, but a bit tight for my liking.

He is short of chips, as tight players, normally are, but wins a decent pot race against me, when his A♣,K♠, spikes an A♦, on the river, against my pocket Q♦,Q♠.

A female player to my left .. Loren, got involved in a very interesting hand, against the chip leader.

The Flop was A♦, 4♠, 7♣, with blinds 2000/4000.

The chip leader (Andre) .. a really good player, has 65k in chips. Loren has 22k.

Pre-flop, Andre bet, 11k, called by Loren. So, its a very decent pot .. 450,000 chips in play, and its checked by both players on the flop.

The turn is 8♠, and Andre bets, enough to put Loren all-in. He is gob-smacked, to see his A♠, 4♥, - two pair, totally outgunned by her Pocket 8♦, 8♣ - trips.

He loses the chip lead, and quite quickly, is eliminated.

He didn't do much wrong .. he knows she never plays 5,6 .. and quite reasonably, puts her on a good Ace, or a high pair .. it shows u, slow-play, can really bite.

Anyway, there are about 14 players left, and Jamie puts another bad beat on me, when he hits a flush on the river, against my flopped trips (all-in), on the flop.

We make the final table .. and its good money .. $3000 for 1st, down to $200 for 6th.

I get a fairly decent table draw .. most of the players are known, nits, but, to my right, is a guy called James, who I played golf with, the previous week, and hes the best player at the table, but, has no chips.

I have 60k, blinds are 3000/6000, so, I obviously attack the blinds, non-stop.

Everyone comments, about my play, but, I say v little - there is no point.

One of my 17k raises, gets called by a short-stack of 14k, with K♦, 8♠ ? .. but, he beats my A♣, 7♣, when he hits the 8♠.

This is the price of being so aggressive, and from having a 60k stack, almost guaranteed a top 3 finish, I end up, finally going out in 8th place .. with no money.

I dont really mind this .. I am playing for the top 3 places, and know, sometimes, I wont get there .. but, like my aggressive style .. thou, after 5 hrs work, it can be mentally draining, to go home with nothing.










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Friday, 6 September 2013

Back to Back

After Mondays success, I had to try go for the double.












The Wednesday Tourny, is much tougher .. $150 to enter, 55 players, starting stacks 8000 chips, blinds 50-100, with 40 minute levels.

Nothing much happened early on, thou did get a good table draw, and was able to establish some table prescience, by re-raising a min-raise, which he put down. I had pocket Kings, so, suppose I wish he had called, but, Kings don't always hold up.

I got to about 14000 chips, when I get dealt :

A ♣ , 3 ♣  in late position.

It's checked to me, so, I raise 2.5x, and get one caller.

The board comes    2 ♦, 4 ♦, 3 ♠ ..

First to act, I check, and he bets 900, into a pot of 1300.

I decide to re-raise, 2600 more, and he ships, all-in.

It's about another 3400 to me, to win, 8200, and as I have the chips, and figure my outs are ..

Any Ace, Any 3, any 5, and back door flushes.

He has an over pair .. Pocket 9,s, and I get there on the turn .. 5 ♥, so it's all over.

My stack is now 21k, and it's all good.

The table breaks .. There are 34 players left, and I get some ridiculous bad-beats .. AK beaten by A,6, A 10, beaten by Jack 10, and then, the last hand before the break, there is a monster pot.

I have A♦, K♦ , under the gun, but know, the last hand before the break is normal very wild, so, just flat call.

Sure enough, 2 limpers, then, the big blind shoves, for 8k chips.

 In all, there is 28k in the pot, once I re-raise, and he turns over A♣, 7♠ , but hits his 7

I have a diamond re-draw, but miss, and go into the break, with about 15k chips ..a huge difference, from 43k or so, .. Total chips in play 450k.

I box on, and without seeing any real hands, pick up chips here and there.

The short stack to my left, goes all in for 3700 chips, I flat, and it's also flatted by the table chip leader.

I have J♦ 10♥ , and the board comes a lovely, J♠, J♣, 4♥,.

I check, and he checks.

The turn is the 9♥, which puts a flush draw out there,  and, some possible straights, so, I bet 10k, int the 10k pot, expecting to pick it up, right there.

He thinks for a good while, and calls.

The K♥ arrives on the river, completing the flush .. He checks, and shows the flush.

He was getting 2/1, about a 4/1 chance, but cripples me, down to 11k chips, but, say nothing, thou, the general feeling around me, was he shouldn't have been in the hand.

Anyway, I still recover, winning some decent blinds, and have about 22k chips, when the last 2 tables are formed.

I have Pocket Kings cracked by A 3, and have 14k left, when I shove all-in, with a bluff .. 9♠ Q♥, on a board of 5♣,6♦ J♠.

I am called by A♦ J♣, but hit a miracle straight, when the 7♥, comes on the turn, and a staggering 8♥, comes on the river. I didn't even see it straight away, but, am happy to win the 30k pot.

The night is v hard work, but, make the final table, with about 50k chips, and want to get into the money (top 6), at least.

The table is fairly good quality players, but, the best, are short stacked, and I nick blinds here and there.

I get to about 95k chips, when, I re-raise the big blind with 8♠ 10♥ offsuit, and he calls .. Having 25 k chips left.

The board comes 4♥,8♣,Q♦ .. He checks, and I check.

The turn is the 4♠, and I figure I am good, so bet 20 k, into a 26k pot.

He thinks, and then calls.

The river is the  7♥ ,and I check, wanting to see a cheap showdown, but, he bets 20k, leaving himself 12 k or so.

I think he's bluffing, but, he might have a Q and decide to lay it down .. Which I regret, thou, I don't know what he had.

Anyway, we got down to 6 players, and the money, then 5, then 4.

The pay jumps now, are quite decent .. $500 for 4th, $700 for 3rd, but, am the joint short-stack, with 9 big blinds, when I shove with KQ, and am called by pocket Jacks, and miss my draws.

So, I finished 4th .. Another late nite, but, still a win .. And am feeling pretty good about my game right now.




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Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Back to the Tables

Have been spending some time away, for many reasons, not least, summer is a good time to play golf.

I wont bore u with the trials and tribulations of my golf swing, but, one of the unchecked items on my 'bucket list' is to break 90, at a regular 72 handicap golf course, and realistically, I am a few years away.

There is hope, and I am working at it, but, its not in place yet ...
















As a distraction to the golf, I am playing more poker, with mixed results.

My game has become less aggressive, which I don't really like, but, am valuing tournament life more, and waiting for later stages, before really, hitting the screws.

Still not seeing cards !! but, as ever, its not about the cards .. well it is sometimes ..


Regular Monday tourney, $80 freeze-out, has become less popular, and last nights event had maybe 35 runners.

Normal mix of regs and fish, thou, the fish are becoming better, and younger, graduating from the on line
economy.

Starting stack is a very restricting 5000, blinds 25/50, levels increase every 40 mins.

This tends to run v fast, till the last 2 tables, even final table, which can take ages.

Key hand, on my 1st table.

Stack - 6400 .. just above average, 31 players left.

In late position, I get 6♠, 8♠.

I call a min raise, of 125, so, with 4 players, there is 600 in the post.

Board comes down :   5♣, 7♥, A♠

Initial opener, bets, 225, and 3 callers, so, am priced in, even thou, its more chips than I want to use on a draw.

Turn is a meaningless, J♠, and the pot is 1600.

Initial raiser bets again, something like, 450. I know he has top pair, and if I hit my draw it will be good, and when the middle 2 players, fold, feel, I have to call, as I know I will get his chips, if I hit one of my 8 outs.

The river is a pretty looking 4♥, he checks, I bet 1500 into a pot of 2500, and he calls/mucks.

So, a good start.

The table then breaks, and I get moved next to my new nemesis, a v decent Indian player, who Carry's cards like he has them up his sleeve, and wont be put down, top 2.

I am concentrating my moves, in late position, and again in a 4 way pot, call an chunky pre-flop raise, with

6♦ , 9♦ 

 Flop is, 6♠, 6♣, 10♦, which looks pretty good to me.

 Its checked to me, and I bet, as people know, I am prone to do.

 It eventually, gets all in, as he has the case 6♥, but his kicker is 5♥, and my 9 outkicks him, giving me 30k in chips, about 20% of those in play.

 I get moved to the final table, and tangle almost immediately, with some of the smaller/weaker stakes.

 Again in late position,  I get 4♣, 5♠.

Its cheap enough, so, I decide to raise. I get 3 callers.

Flop comes, a scary looking 10♠, 9♦, K♣

Everyone checks, I have uber-nothing, so, also check.

Turn comes, 4♠, and I decide to bet, and get one caller.

Obviously behind, probably tailed-off, the river, is 4♥, giving me trips, and clearly the best hand.

I bet 7000 chips, into a pot of 9000, and a pretty young women, who thinks I am bluffing, re-ships on me, for 15k more. I instanta call, show her the trips, the table gasps, and people really stay away from me, after that.

Top 4 places paid, and, at one stage, I had 45% of the chips in play, but, despite having 5 chances, to kill players off, the flips always went against me, and had to settle for an equal 1/3rd share, for about $400, at 2 a.m.

I would have played on, but had a golf game booked for 7am,  and I need my rest ...



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Monday, 26 August 2013

Ashes Review

Haven't much energy these days, for what seem to be boring/repetitive games, but, felt I missed a major opportunity in the 5th and final Test.

After 3 days, a draw was looking v likely, with rain forecast to fall all day, on the 4th day.

In the evening of the 3rd day, the draw was trading at 1.08/1.09, and thou it looked v likely, I didn't feel the rain would be as heavy as expected, and left up a speculative lay, of £50k, at 1.06 - liability £3k.

In the wee hours, the draw drifted to 1.10, so, I cancelled the trade, only to see the draw trading at 1.03, pre day 4, as the weather moved in.

Day 4 was a washout, and the draw traded £2m at 1.01, and England traded 660/1 .. Which, it was a mistake, not to get involved with.

Day 5, saw an early dec by Clarke, and England went as low at 1.5,before finally falling short, by 20 odd runs, due to bad light.

I won smalls on the test, but, have the feeling, one got away.

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Sunday, 11 August 2013

4th Ashes Test - Durham - Day 4/5

Radar seems to indicate rain will likely fall, after 2pm, on the 4th day.

This might not be terminal, but, if England are still batting, will throw various spammers into the works.

 

Some jumpy market moves, already.

Draw down to 3.75, in the early horse, back to 5.0 at the start, and within 3 overs, back to sub 4.0.

Eng 248-5. Lead by 216 .. Rain probably in 2 hrs.

Eng 1.76

Aus 5.2

Draw 4.0

 

Bell goes to a grub-hunter, 251-6, lead by 219

New ball

Eng 1.77

Aus 3.45

Draw 6.6

 

And then, next ball, another.

Eng 1.77

Aus 2.86

Draw 12

 

Drinks

Eng 306-8. .. Some v quick runs for England, mainly from Bresnan.

Eng 1.58

Aus 3.4

Draw 12 .. Which, is absolute madness

 

England 330 all out, lead by 299

Just before lunch, and no rain yet. Tomorrow looks reasonably clear, but draw, as ever, refuses to go away ...

Eng 1.59

Aus 3.1

Draw 17.5 ???

 

Aus 10-0 .. Eng lose a review .. One day, these will get priced in, properly.

Rain delay, but not for too long. Draw backers a bit unlucky, as some really heavy stuff, just slid by. Eng bowlers look a trifle unlucky, and Hill still getting a few wrong, but Aus so far, survive.

Aus 50-0

Eng 2.18

Aus 1.98

Draw 24

 

Aus 97-0

 

Eng 3.75

Aus 1.40

Draw 48

Aussie game to lose now .. Rain keeping away .. Tea in 20 mins, and light might start to go, but, Aussie doing it easy.

 

Aus 111-1

 

Eng 3.2

Aus 1.48

Draw 48

 

Aus 151-2

 

Eng 4.7

Aus 1.28

Draw 75

 

Aus 168-3 .. Good knock by Warner, maybe some life in this game.

Eng 3.4

Aus 1.43

Draw 60

 

I left to go play cards, as didn't want to ruin my book, and Aus v tamely folded, to lose, almost embarrassingly.

You could feel for the coach, who is a new guy, and deserved to get at least one win.

The side does look short of runs .. And Eng got the game, from no-where, with the highlight, being the superb bowling of Broad, who took 11 wkts in the game.

Sometimes, he's v average, but, when he's good, he's v good.

Anderson looks a bit tired .. After having a great season.

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Friday, 9 August 2013

4th Ashes Test - Durham

Series score 2-0, following the rain draw at Manchester.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some rain probable, during the 5 days at Durham, but, given the Aus need to play aggressively, I think u have to be against the draw.

Pre-toss ..

England 2.14

Aus 3.85

Draw 3.85

England win toss and bat

After a very slow session, Eng finish at Lunch on 57-1

Eng 2.07

Aus 5.1

Draw 3.0

I am with England, at avg 2.20 .. Okish book.

 

Tea - 155-4

Eng 2.14

Aus 3.75

Draw 3.75

Ball starting to spin, so, have gone against draw.

 

Cue wkt .. 5 down

 

Eng grind themselves into a corner ..

Eng 199-8

 

Eng 2.74

Aus 1.98

Draw 7.6

 

Average its inns score here, in 5 1st class games this yr, all about 250, so, this score isn't desperate, but, 104-1, to this, it ain't.

England lost their mo-jo, but, have to lay Aus, sub 2.0.

 

So, COP ..

Eng 238-9, which maybe isn't so bad.

Eng 2.56

Aus 2.15

Draw 6.8

 

Interesting days play, and u get the impression the Eng batters find it hard to play against bowling which is naggingly accurate, and give away their wkts.

Maybe the bowlers, will come to the rescue again.

 

Day 2

Anderson gets hit on the head, and succumbs to a straight one, a few balls later.

Eng 238 all out.

Eng 2.72

Aus 2.02

Draw 7.0

 

Run line, is about 300 .. Think they will get more, and a 100 run lead, may well be the match.

 

Warner goes early, 12-1.

Eng 2.34

Aus 2.18 (1.91, pre)

Draw 8.0

 

Some volatile trading, as Aus lose 2 then 3 wkts, but Rogers steadies the ship, and after tea, Aus are 203-4.

Just 35 behind, and thou bad light may be an issue, rain is staying away.

Eng 4.9

Aus 1.74

Draw 4.6

 

Day 3

 

An early wkt, for England, with Aus 7 behind, 3 wkts left.

Eng 2.78

Aus 2.1

Draw 5.9

 

The draw price, is being held in place, by the light/rain, which may come later, but right now, it's sunshine.

 

Aus all out, with the last review, really funny, as the players accept it's out, and walk off, to leave the umpire to raise his finger (he got it wrong, again), to no- one.

Eng 2.26

Aus 2.68

Draw 5.3

 

Draw refuses to go away, with showers maybe tmrrw.

 

After lunch, Eng 48-2, 16 ahead.

 

Eng 2.26

Aus 2.38

Draw 7.6

 

No rain yet, and sunshine now.

Tea - Eng 123-3 91 runs ahead.

Some dark clouds about, but, they keep missing !!

Game really moved on, after lunch, with some quick wkts, but Bell and Pietersen has moved the game, firmly to England.

 

Eng 2.06

Aus 2.94

Draw 5.7

 

Have had some nice trades, and am an Draw lay, at 2.1 avg.

 

An hour or so left in the day, if light permits. The weather has been v tricky, with pixels fading away, and rain falling, for literally seconds.

Eng 176-4

 

Eng 1.95

Aus. 2.92

Draw 6.8

 

The test seems to be heading England's way, with a lead of 144, and it looks like 225, would be challenging.

 

COP Eng 234-5. Lead by 202

 

Eng 1.76

Aus 4.2

Draw 5.0

 

Sme thoughts, there will be some rain tomorrow, and might lose 40 overs.

I had one bad trade, which set me back quite a bit, but, have ok book.

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