Its all about solving puzzles

Life is a puzzle, and for many years, its easy to get trapped trying to solve it - rather than go with the flow, and enjoy it.

We have many demands placed upon us - which can be hard to ignore - but, I don't think u can under-emphasise, u need to do what makes u happy.

As one gets older, the rigour of travel, is less of an enjoyment - and certainly now, I prefer to be less mobile.

Poker has a lot of what I am looking for : Its a gamble, with a cast full of characters, looking to solve a puzzle, for money.

This weekend, I was able to play :

Normally I play at a certain casino - but, after a 30 minute drive, got there to discover, the poker room was being used for a private poker event - so, was turned away. I went to the blackjack pit, got the normal shit service (no one says hello, says fuck-all actually), so, I played in the same fashion, and when cashed out, and they asked for my name, picked up my chips, and left.

Drove to another place, and was lucky to find a seat at a $2/5 table. Just the one game going .. its was early Saturday afternoon, and would maybe only get 4 tables, later that evening.

The table was reg heavy .. many of which I knew, would be happy to see me .. but, was not in the mood to blast off my chips.

I bought in for $500, which was about average.

Maybe an hour in, the regs were starting to ask themselves, what was going on. I was resolutely folding out of position, just playing position, with hands of decent quality. In poker, its definitely an advantage to get premium hands, but, just as big an advantage, is position, and knowing what range of hands, both your opponents have, and what they perceive u to have.

A female lady reg, whose range is decent pocket pairs, and maybe suited connectors, got her AA cracked by a set of 7's, and left. She would be important later.

I was playing solid, good poker .. but, generally in the 1st 3 hrs or so, seeing few playable hands.

As the afternoon past into evening, the game attracted some new characters. On my immediate left, was a tight elderly dunnit merchant, who had zero chance of winning. After playing poorly to lose 2 buy-ins, he borrowed a 3rd, from someone at the table .. which surprised me a little, as thought the person loaning the money, would know better. He later blew this off, shoving A♦K♠, into a board of Q♥ 7♥ 6♠ .. which shows u etc. I later saw him in the salon prive, sitting next to a guy, with maybe $20k, watching that guy play blackjack. Maybe another loan beckoned.

There were 2 supposed 'whales' who might play/donate at my game, but so far, they had escaped the net - preferring to play baccarat.

The female lady reg returned, with a v solid reg, who I really respected, to her immediate left. They knew each other, and generally slow-played against each other, which was fine.

A short while later, I picked up Q♦8♦ in late position, which I decided to make a small raise with, and the lady reg, in BB called. Just the 2 of us. The flop came Q♥8♠9♣ and u would think, this would be good. But, as I say, she just plays a v narrow range .. so, when she raised my continuation bet, I folded and showed the table (which u shouldn't do, but, I was there to have fun). The table was frankly stunned, but, it was a good fold, as she had me coolered, with Q♣9♦. Now, this isn't a suited connector, so, am not totally sure why she was still in the hand -- but, still.

Maybe 15 mins later, I get my first premium hand, in 4 hrs. K♦K♠, and decided to flat in early position, hoping for a check-raise situation, as the table was seeing a lot of raises. Sure enough, a reg in seat 5 raised, the lady reg called, and I re-raised. All other fold, but, the lady reg, who again called.

Flop came Q♦5♥4♠ .. pretty good for my Kings .. but she can definitely have QQ, or maybe AA. I put out a decent bet, and she comes over the top, with a big raise. I felt totally in the zone, and put her 100% on AA, so again folded my KK - face up. The table was again, stunned - but, was proved right when she showed her hand. If she had flat-called, she would have got all my chips, but, the raise, told me enough, to get away.

This stellar play, was all good, but, u want to get paid for playing well. I was now seeing cards, and picked up KK again, UTG+2. My raise, was re-raised, by a v solid pro, in mid-position, and either I could shove, or, see a flop, and if no A hit, then shove, as our stacks meant, we would have little choice. The flop came K 4 10, and was lucky to have out-drawn his AA. This gave me a v playable stack, when a whale came back from the baccarat, and sat down with $1k.

The very first hand, I picked up 9♦9♠ in the BB, and with a straddle on, it was pricey to call a raise from the whale, but, decided I had enough to get well-paid if a 9 hits the flop.

Sure enough, the flop comes J♦9♥5♠, and the whale shoves all-in, for about $750 effective (my stack). I called, and his A♦A♣ never improved.

Winning, maybe $1000 .. I decided to quit, and take a walk in the salon prive. As I was walking round, there was a commotion at the  3 card poker table .. a Chinese high-roller, had hit the straight flush jackpot, for $80k .. must be nice .. He handed out high-fives .. I would have preferred $100 notes, but, maybe that's being unrealistic.

It was a fun visit.

20 yrs, goes by so quickly.

Now the Global T20 has been postponed, the 'punctuation police' have had to call up re-inforcements, as I have a little more time to annoy people.

I saw a tweet from someone who had quite a knack for this :

Nick Leeson

Nikkei225 at highest level today since 1996 - probably not far off my break-even point. If only they'd waited!!

Were does the time go ? Out of interest, I looked at his bio .. and he spent only maybe 4 yrs in jail, before being released. He had colon cancer, for which the prognosis was dire, but, survived.

On my travels  there is quite a discussion re Advantage Play and whether the Las Vegas shooter - Stephen Paddock was a high level advantage video poker player. There is also discussion as to the sociopath behaviour of full-time gamblers and whether he used 'Advantage' techniques to fire off more rounds than any previous shooter, thus '' 'raising the bar' - if you like.

This is grim stuff - which I am sure we all generally want to ignore. For those interested, here is a link :

https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/the-shooter-gambler/

The comments are fascinating.

We are still awaiting the UK decision on maximum allowed gambled per spin.  Its maybe possible FOBT degenerates may benefit from an in-depth study and finally get the UK government to grow a pair.

Patience - Ignore the idiots

A few things in this post.

1. What a bunch of clowns, Cricket South Africa are. All they have to do, is be nice to people, arrange a few cricket games, and reap in the money. Due to an odd sequence of events, they are currently playing a series against Bangladesh, in the most god-forsaken outreaches of S.Africa, where, only a few (drunk) students or cattle might wander in. The level of cricket is dire, and no-one is watching (has watched).

India have long lost patience, and .. holding all the cards, have amended tours. S.Africa now get to play a 4 day test match, on Boxing day, versus Zimbabwe. Whoopee Doo.

The Global T20, is a colossal fuck-up, and, has now been postponed, 3 weeks before its due to start. Quite what, local domestic players, are supposed to do, in the interim, hasn't yet been announced. maybe they will be available, to help herd the cattle. Let alone, all the good people, who have booked flights, booked hospitality boxes, planned trips, etc etc.

Mis-management of country affairs, should be punishable. Its clearly gross mis-management. (I am sure, the ex-CSA head, Haroon Lorgat, will get a fancy settlement.) He deserves nothing.

// Moving on

2. I try to be nice to people, but, I am not giving away intellectual property for free. I have had too many free-loaders, and am calling time. If u write to me, asking for stuff, I have paid good money for, and spent many hours, working on projects, u will get a short answer, and it wont be yes.

On a forum, there was a teaser thread, where a piece of software, is trying to drum up interest, in what it deems, a new bit of software, that will change the way, trading takes place.

As people were guessing etc, someone asked for something, that I mentioned, was already available, on a rival bit of kit .. like 3 yrs ago. Instead of getting a polite PM, asking for the name etc, the requester sarcastically asked me to name it, on a rival website. I didn't, and the forum member, will again, get short shrift for me in future.

I am tired of all the parasites. The fact I knew this little known feature was available, should have comanded some respect. But, its in short supply. They can all fuck-off.

Life goes on

I am still here, but, am genuinely  getting more enjoyment from non-internet based activities, and have accordingly, greatly reduced my social prescience, and thus the blog has suffered.

The world is still an odd place, we have a President of the United States, whose own biographer, in 'The art of the deal' finds it hard to find more than 2 redeeming qualities in him - yet, the US stock market is at an all-time high, nuclear warheads are tested, with bravado, and the climate appears to have become more severe.

Some of this is just fluff. Gamblers tend to be incredibly narrow-minded ..  and consider, just, what can help them, find and develop/mine an edge. This is fair enough, but, at some point, maybe a more balanced approach is needed, and we need to take a more active role, in what is actually happening in the world. But, u probably don't want to hear this .. so, will reign myself in.

Its interesting to see the US sports bodies, manoeuvring their official stance to sports betting, and how their respective codes are run. Its clear, they expect legal sports betting in the US, within maybe 3 yrs, and full-time officials, are part of the process (for fear of suits, if a referee gets a decision wrong). Its an interesting debate, whether all reviews in game, should be held at one central location. It might slow down the process, or even speed it up. What is should do, is provide more consistency .. and that's probably a good thing.

I went to a seminar (or tried to go to a seminar), on Bitcoin recently. The seminar was advertised, at a university, with an admission fee of £15. 1 student turned up (he wasn't aware of the fee), and literally ran from the building, when told. In sympathy, I took the lecturer for a burger, and got the gospel. He was a fanatic .. and I happily played devils advocate. On the day of the burger, Bitcoin was $4100 .. its now $3670 or so .. and could go anywhere. If the Chinese crypto exchanges have now sold all their currencies, the amount of influence they now have, is reduced. Its possible, it might find a support level, and go to the moon.

The Oxford union address by Tony Schwartz, in Nov 2106.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxF_CDDJ0YI

Hustle ..

So, I caught a 10.00 am train to London, expecting to get there, maybe 2 hrs, before a cricket game was starting.

I paid an extra £2, to sit in 1st class .. which, I couldnt complain about, and a young lady came and sat at the desk, to use the power outlet.

Half-way, the way train was cancelled, as someone had killed themselves at the next station. (its a bit sad, that this is the 4th one, I have been affected by, in 3 yrs -- horrible for everyone concerned, especially the train drivers/cleaners).

At the station, about 200 people looked to complete the 1 hr journey to London. A different train company, ran from a station, 10 miles away, so, I ambled over to the taxi line, where 15 people were waiting. One taxi came and went, and a new one arrived, with space for 6. I was at the back of the queue .. but, got on the taxi. I saw the lady from 1st class, and asked her if she wanted to join me .. the taxi had 1 more space, but, she seemed embaressed to jump the queue, and declined.

The train from the next station, was leaving at 12.03. The taxi ride, was due to end, at 12.04 .. just missing, but, we had all the smart-phones tracking everything, and as we arrived at the station, the train wasnt there (a good sign).

The train arrived, as we were crossing, to the correct platform .. and sprinting, just made it.

I was at the ground, 45 mins, before it started .. (and lost) .. but, dont regret the hustle.

//

One of the games, was a ladies T20, and the quality, is v basic. They have to start somewhere .. but, no-one is ever gonna pay to watch this shit.

//

I first heard of Bitcoin, on the DonkDown radio podcasts .. in 2012. At the time, in was 8 bitcoin for a $ ..

A yr ago, Bitcoin, was $600 a coin. Over the weekend, it touched $4200.

Shud, coulda, wuda etc .. but, it looks like a classic bubble.

Getting older .. and its implications

By definition, we are all getting older .. But, when u crest a certain age, new things happen to you.

In the last 3 days, I have been stuck on multiple trains/tubes, which are standing room only, baking hot, as no aircon etc .. and have been offered a seat .. some, by fairly young females.

This is a bit disconcerting.

In a local supermarket, whilst walking past a stand, it accidentally collapsed .. Honestly, I was no-where near it, and people assumed I had tripped ? or whatever, and as I was picking a few items up, many others stopped to also help, and ask if I was ok ??

In a cinema, I was asked if I wanted the senior ticket-rate ..

All of this, is disheartening .. and does affect your confidence a little, as, generally, gambling needs a little aggression, which, is probably a young-mans attribute.

To counter this, I am starting to change my betting strategies .. and actually think more, about situations.

As you get older, u care less about what people think, and break-rules. If someone complains, I can feign hard of hearing/poor eyesight etc, or just generally act like a drooler.

So, will for now, tolerate all of this - but wont say I am enjoying it.

Betfair USA Youtube channel

A lot has passed me by recently, mostly concerning honesty and honour, and its just too depressing to comment on.

A post in the Bet Angel forum, peaked my interest.

With certain legislative moves being made in the USA, with regard to sports betting, its good to see Betfair USA, working on their youtube channel .. (its a shame, they dont work as hard as Ben Keith (Star Sports), who sponsored the 2017 Greyhound Derby at Towcester, but still.

This video, raises a few questions. But, anyway, its a start :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hygtz3sL81E

Some of Ben Keiths stuff :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqWzOS1v-Ng

Windows Vulnerabilities

During my trading career, (15 yrs), I have ... knowingly, 3 times been hacked.

Once, my email was hacked, and a bank account number, I was supposed to pay £3k into, was changed, to another .. so, the hacker, got the trf. Pretty sneaky, and clever .. if u ignore the loss.

Last week, my servers were targeted, and all files were encrypted .. a message was left, saying I could get the encryption  key, for 1 bit coin .. about $2k.

I declined .. and had the server re-built.

Its a warning .. in this digital age, few things are safe. 2 factor authentication is v useful, as are other methods, of storing passwords.

The most worrying thing, was I had no idea, how they got into the servers .. as nothing was downloaded to them .. it must have been a Windows vulnerability .. and, I have now applied all patches/changed passwords etc.

Not good... but, is one of the prices, of this digital age.

//

In other news .. A certain Irish airline, had a late take-off, by about a hr. This caused me to miss the shuttle, from returning airport, to train station, which caused a further delay, in catching said train.

The survey request, from Irish airline, was completed .. not happy.

Roadblocks ..

So, there is a thread on Bet Angel, re a trader who has decided to call it quits. Hes 20 yrs old .. grew a bank from 1k to 10k, then lost all of the winnings, in 1 day.

Hes decided to quit .. and the thread has run to 5 pages.

I am now, tired/jaded and not in a good mood to be compassionate .. which, is a neg EV play anyway.

People dont like the truth. He should quit, and move on, but basically wants sympathy.

We all want sympathy. Everyone has a good story, about how hard they work. Details are just details, if u havent got the self-motivation/life skills  to be a pro-gambler, then the market will get you,

//

Am losing weight, whuch is maybe making me crotchety. How the fuck, can a muffin have 450 calories, when a Jammie Dodger has 78. How can Rhubarb yoghurt have 114 calories, when raspberry has 46. Life isn't fair .. get used to it.

Tennis Balls and High Blood Pressure

This blog hasnt re-invented itself, but, here is a health tip.

Recently listened to a podcast, where they analysed the blood pressure of ultra-fit fighter pilots.

Some had high blood pressure, some low. It seemed random, but, u would have thought, they would all have been low.

After comparison of the habits of both sets .. it was found, those pilots that gripped the joy-stick firmly, all had lower pressure.

To try and improve the blood pressure of the other group, simple exercises were created.

Get 2 tennis balls, hold one in each hand, firmly for 6 secs, then relax and repeat for 3 times. This was done for 6 sets .. so, the exercise takes maybe 5 mins max ..

After 2 weeks, all the pilots had dramatically improved blood pressure.

Try it .. whats to lose ?

Truth and Honesty

I'm in an odd spot right now, in that lots of things are passing me, which, I would normally comment on, but, its either too sensitive, or too informative, to be just passed on, to the general public.

That probably sounds pretentious .. spot on - live with it.

In a poker forum, I came across this quote/passage, which, I think applies to most things :

You will not make money in the market, unless you are smarter and more knowledgeable than the money weighted average of the market participants, in whatever niche you choose.

By commenting in a blog, my information - unless its bogus, has to increase the overall market knowledge, thereby making it harder to win. As I sell nothing, this is not my job, and its a -EV spot, to help people.

Social media is a full tapestry of people.

I was watching a cricket game in New Zealand, where the rain had been relentless, and it was fairly clear the last day of the test match would be rained out, resulting in a draw.

Being there Live, I know this post by Morty, was a blatent falsehood .. but, its interesting, the tweet, caused the draw price to spike to +/- 1.50, which was just theft.

This was reality :

And, 1.15 the draw, was if anything, a good price.

I dont think people should be allowed to get away with this. Morty has a history,  of doing this shit, and, its wrong. Weather u can sue, for posting known lies, is a bit debateable, but, I think people should be aware, what can happen.

The Feds finally got Billy

Billy Walters is a legendary sports bettor in Las Vegas, and has been hounded by the authorities for many years.

He has been accused of many infractions of the law, over his 70 yrs, but, this is the first time, hes been found guilty. Am sure he will appeal .. likely to get 5 yrs+, as it stands.

(Phil Mickleson - who I once saw in a UK betting shop, asking what 'cartoon racing' was .. maybe dodged a bullet, by paying an admission of guilt fine, a yr or so ago)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/billy-walters-win-streak-ends-with-insider-trading-conviction

White Flag .. if I can find one (everything sold, to pay margin)

Ok, enuf.

I have been destroyed by the inexorable rise in stock marjets, since Trump took over, and, its time to retreat, and lick my wounds.

I need a industry size licker .. one of those they use for postage stamps (remember them ?) ..

So, am now out of everything, and have turned my phone off. Dont call me, and dont leave any messages. - Oh, and dont mention me, in random blogs, who know nothing.

In other news, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

5 yrs ago, I came to Dunedin, to watch a pedestrian test match, where the run-rate crawled along, and rain threatened .. finally killing the last day, and a draw ensued.

Fast forward, the ground has been modernised, the students have got louder, but the run-rates are still low, and day 5 is again washed out.

If we are still here in 5 yrs time, we can get out of it, backing the draw.

$400 Trillion buys u a lot

Reading Edward Thorp's new book ... 'A man for all markets', is a joy, as he knows his subject, like inside out, and relates it well, to the average reader.

Reading books, I often find cross-referencing .. and, sometimes, I can either agree, with what was written elsewhere, or pause.  (Especially, when the authors are now dead), there are disputes, as to the truth. For instance, Kerry Packer,('The rise and rise of Kerry Packer') was obviously an extremely wealthy man, who liked to gamble, gave huge tips, but, sometimes, did not pay his gambling debts. This I found odd. In Bill Waterhouses book, in 2009 'What are the odds', he gave his account, of a dispute with Kerry, and how he could have handled it better.

In just about all life, there are 3 sides to any story .. your version, his version, and the truth, which maybe in between.

In Edward Thorps book, he puts the value on the earth, at $400 trillion. I am sure he is right .. this man makes few mistakes, and Warren Buffet put the value of the world gold value, (in 2009), at $7 trillion, and the value of the US stock market, about $20 trillion. So, I can see, that the numbers make sense.

What doesnt make a great deal of sense to me .. is the prices for cricket hospitality in the UK.

Its looking like a v busy summer of cricket, and I am being inundated with offers .. last chance !! to buy hospitality, ranging from $340 to £500 for a days cricket.

The cheapest I have actually paid for a ticket (many places were free), is $0.25c, to watch an international match in Sri lanka, on the concrete steps. Sure, its uncomfortable .. but, u get what u pay for. At £400 for a ticket, u would have to drink, an awful lot, to realise anything like value, and your body, may take offence.

I hope people stay away .. but, fear, they will not.

Time resource and Social Media

Listening to an Alec Torelli (poker player), Youtube, talking about currencies of a Poker Player, and how he rates Money/Time/Mobility/Influence.

Having been up all night, trading a Completed Match Market, which, ended NO .. game was abandoned without a ball bowled, I was struck by a few chords.

Over the last 2 days, I lost money, following an Apple short. It wasnt much money, and, sensibly, I cut the position, once the immediate results were out, as, I would have lost a bit more.

During the CMM, twitter can be alive and slow. I follow a few people, a few people follow me. In the olden days, if I posted a picture of weather conditions, it would move the market .. so, I stopped.

The game above, was supposed to be 50 overs a side, but, it can be reduced to 20 overs a side, so, the 8 hrs allotted, can be cut, to about 2 hrs. After 4 hrs of waiting, the CMM, has traded from a v heavy favourite, of Yes, there would be a game, to No, being a heavy fav, at about 1.30.

It was 6pm local time, and a final inspection had been called for 6.30pm. Nothing can be done - match wise, till they have the final inspection.

One of my twitter .. lets call him Marty - posted 'Game Abandoned - more to follow'.

Almost instantly, £20k appeared wanting to back No game, at 1.01. Even sleep deprived (this was in the wee hrs), I had to lay my share, and took profits, when people realised, this was a pretty big mistake, by someone.

The game was finally called off, 45 mins later ..

The point I am trying to make .. is that, my using Time, to look at Social Media, is both good and bad. Its a balance. You will win some, lose some. Maybe refinement of the followers, and heavy diltuion of what some people say, is part of the process, to what it takes to win .. but, thats the game.

Apple Update - Lost again ..

The YOLO (You only live once) .. am I the only one, who has to google what these newer acronyms mean ?, wasnt a spectacular fail, but, a fail never the less.

The live results conference call, was hosted on Youtube, by our friend the Wolf .. who appears to have a  Canadian accent, and gathered 14k viewers.

It was almost certainly a demo account .. If he was getting a kick-back, from spread companies, who make money, on the bid/ask spread, I would be impressed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ilpE7caEXU

In researching this short, there are other funny videos on youtube .. from -- supposed ex-employees, making fun at the design of Apple products. It does make sense, but, maybe, with the fires from rival competitors, now, was not the best time to short. Ipad sales are off .. and likely to stay low .. maybe next time :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrpsA98DhCI

Apple earnings .. Turning $2.5 into dust ..

In a different life, I have done my absolutes, shorting this (which was dumb, but, was a re-active condition, after massive poor service).

Apple is due to report earning, tomorrow.

This is an interesting read, about someone, left $2.5m, has lost $2.15m of it, and is now, shorting the stock, hoping to get even.

I would love him to be right :

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/5qhzcy/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

Basin Reserve (Wellington) - off my Xmas card list

When someone asks me, which is my favourite cricket ground/racecourse, I normally answer, based on past betting highlights. Oddly, both Taunton cricket ground and racecourse, have been good to me .. I dislike v few (obviously, Edgbaston is right up there), but, starting to get some traction, is the Basin Reserve, in Wellington.

I have some history, with this ground. 4 yrs ago, (it seems like a lifetime), I was watching S.Africa play N.Zealand at this ground, and, pretty much as usual, it was raining. It was the 4th day, of a 5 day test. I was happy to see it rain, I had backed the draw v heavily, and it was all good. It was banging down, an hr before the game was due to start - which was impossible, given the rain/state of the ground, but, I had a ticket etc, and .. with a good book, was happy to sit in the stand, and watch the ducks play.

It took some time to get into my alloted seat .. the section i was in, had been padlocked, and .. no-one had the key, as they didnt expect customers etc .. but, I finally got in. As it happened, my seat was quite close to the umpires locker room, and they saw me reading my book, as they ventured out, to look at the pitch. After 2-3 inspections, an umpire maybe thought I had better things to do, and said, I could probably go home in an hr, as they were likely to call the game off, for the day. This was cool .. I backed the draw some more ..

As the umpire disappeared into the changing room, the rain stopped, the sun came out, and literally, they were playing, 45 mins later. Luckily, I was able to salvage my book, but, Wellington, got a black mark.

Fast forward 4 yrs.

The N.Zealand / Bangladesh test, looks a certain draw, especially, as its raining v heavily on day 4.

Players havent left the hotels - radio stations, asking local residents, to a man, say, no play before lunch .. and once again, I back the draw.

Once again, the sun comes out, the rain misses the ground, and players were 5 mins late, starting - with little warm-ups, they were so-caught out.

This time, I couldnt recover my book, and lost, pretty heavily.

Not a great start to the year -- I did little wrong, but, paid the price, of listening to 'Joe Public'.