Gorgeous start to day, forecast for Monday improving, and think doom mongers for tomorrow are all wrong.
I am heavily against draw.
Draw dived to 2.40 .. Who are these idiots ?
SA declare .. Setting Aus 445 ..just before lunch .. I expecting 55 overs tomorrow, so, Aus got a sniff.
S.Africa 1.73
Aus 11
Draw 2.94
Lunch. And Aus batting well .. 31-0 .. Mkt rethinks Aus chance of winning this.
S.Africa 2.12
Aus 7.0
Draw 2.56
Drinks .. Aus 99-0 .. SA's 3 bowlers, getting nothing from pitch.
Max with Aus
S.Africa 3.75
Aus 3.75
Draw 2.24 .. Draw stupid short
Aus into 3.25, but lose Warner .. Spinners getting some turn.
Aus 127-1 .. Need 321 more
S.Africa 2.5
Aus 5.5
Draw 2.38
Run rate might slow now .. Good game
Tea .. Aus 141-1 .. Rogers hit one, but, no review by SA.
S.Africa 2.82
Aus 5.2
Draw 2.16
U could argue, all prices are wrong.
After Tea, Steyn gets some real fire, and Aus 6 down.
Aus 166-6 ..
S.Africa 1.19
Aus 140
Draw 6.2
All over .. And it never rained on Day 5 ....
Gorgeous day, and forecast is great for day 4, thou day 5, looks bad.
A little wind, so might get some swing .. Huge 1st session !
At lunch, Aus wobbling at 205-8 .. Needing 20 more, to avoid follow-on, if it's enforced.
Monday weather is key .. Any one got any ideas ?
S.Africa 1.77
Aus 17
Draw 2.62
Day kicked on, but spent most of it looking at weather charts for Monday.
At COP day 3, SA are 363-4 .. Net.
Apocalyptic weather forecasts for Monday .. Which may or may not be accurate.
Currently .. Blissful ..
S.Africa 1.57
Aus 18
Draw 3.2
V curious weather systems in this area .. Mild drizzle, 100km away, up the coast, but PE clear, and looks likely to stay that way, for at least most of the day.
S.Africa losing the 2 cheap wkts at the end, certainly affects the game, and with a new ball this morning, under some cloud think the Aussie attack, might get some sticks.
S.Africa 3.3
Australia 3.45
Draw 2.40. ?
I have draw much bigger, and have laid.
Radar has a little rain around, but think wind will blow it away, and next 2 days, look v clear, to make up any lost time, (if there is any).
Ball doing nothing ..S.Africa 240-5 .. Brighter, but looks like only mistakes will take wkts .. Not impossible, and maybe pitch will wear ..
Drinks .. S.Africa 263-5 .. Pretty good start for them .. Bowlers look flat, maybe it's the pitch .. Will be interesting to see Steyn/Morkel/Philander, especially if they have niggles.
S.Africa 3.2
Aus 7.6
Draw 1.77
Lunch .. And a session to S.Africa !!
323-5 .. ABDev 102 n.o., and JP 59 n.o.
S.Africa 2.92
Aus 14
Draw 1.69
Bright enough, so imagine lotsa play today .. Maybe S.A get 475 before the close, and get some overs at Aus.
For now, still looks a road.
Mid-way after lunch, and ABDev goes, for a well compiled 100.
374-6 .. Quite bright, thou some dark clouds from the west.
S.Africa 3.45
Aus 13
Draw 1.56
At tea - S.Africa 413-8 .. JP still there on 118, but, with only Steyn and Morkel, u would expect, maybe another 50 runs.
Some talk about a declaration, but, I can't see it.
Still fairly light, think they will go to natural close of play, or v close.
Game is really lifeless .. Prices not moving much.
After tea, S.Africa quickly 423 all out .. Leaves quite a few overs tonite, in good light.
One key thing, is the final test, is in 4 days after the end of this one .. Maybe, the fast bowlers will be looked after, if no wkts early. S.Africa didn't play a spinner, which looks odd.
At change of innings :
S.Africa 3.7
Aus 8.0
Draw 1.64
Amazing session after Tea .. S.Africa bowled with real menace . . Could have had 6, easy.
Aus 112-4 .. 312 behind ..
S.Africa 2.12
Aus 13
Draw 2.22
Monday forecast, v ropes .. Might lose 45 overs.
Aus lead 1-0, which really doesn't do justice to how far they won by. Maybe one day, we will see bonus points.
Anyway, on to the next game, and Port Elizabeth has a reputation for being low and slow .. Which might negate Johnson.
With a few bits of rain forecast, I have built up a very big position on the draw, averaging 4.0.
This time, I am in profit, before Day 1.
Current prices :
S.Africa 2.96
Aus 2.66
Draw 3.5
Day before, and it's v overcast, with rain about.
Draw moved into 3.00 .. And is flavour of the month.
S.Africa 3.1
Aus 2.88
Draw 2.98
Match day .. Windy as anything last night, but little, if any rain.
Thin cloud for now .. Will be huge toss to win.
Pre toss
S.Africa 3.0
Aus 3.1 ??
Draw 2.8
Aus lost the toss, and Biff decided to bat first, after some drama, deciding what team to pick. Philander was in doubt, but plays, with Elgar and De Cock.
Smith and Amla, go v cheaply, and S.Africa looked in the mire again, albeit, on what seems a v docile pitch.
Faff and Elgar steadied the ship, somewhat slowly, but at Lunch, S.Africa are 64-2.
S.Africa 335
Aus 3.35
Draw 2.50
Floodlights have been on, from ball 1, and it's v cloudy, but, no rain yet, and with the wind so strong, and stuff, maybe quite short lived.
Still, I think it will be v hard work to take 20 wkts on here, and am holding on to most of my draw back.
Tea - S.Africa 145-3 .. Not the best run rate, but, largely intact.
Hard to see where this game might go. Weather forecasts improving a bit, so, might get most of the overs .. Can it be a natural draw ? Sure .. But, if S.Africa score 375+, pressure on Aus, for once.
S.Africa 3.2
Aus 4.2
Draw 2.18
Not doing much, with my pre-game position.
Game finished 7 overs early, due to bad light .. To be caught up in the morning.
S.Africa 214-5 .. If they all out for 300, I think they are in trouble.
More blue sky, which, isn't what S.Africa especially want.
Expecting to see Aus bat quite aggressively this morning, setting up a declaration, either just before, or just after Lunch .. 550 or so, ahead.
S.Africa gonna have to bat long .. Whatever happens.
S.Africa 30
Aus 1.29
Draw 5.1
Pitch maybe, has a few cracks starting :
Clarke surprises, with an early declaration .. Leaving S.Africa to score 482 .. Really surprised me.
Draw blew from 5.2 or so, to 14 ...
Decision largely based, as Clarke was batting, and couldn't lay a bat on ball.
Proved right, as S.Africa 65-3 at lunch. Looks like the game will be over, quite early.
Hard to say it's overcast, as when the sun comes thru, it's v strong, but cloud buildup, may be indicative of stuff to come later.
That's not exact, but, it's the best anyone can do, in this highly volatile weather area.
S.Africa need a solid 1st hr .. Maybe the clouds will help Aus bowlers .., for now, they 250 behind, 4 wkts left, in 1st dig.
Johnson strikes quickly .. He really is, the best around ..
S.Africa 148-7 .. Still 250 behind.
S.Africa 7.2
Aus 1.45
Draw 5.7
Hmm ..a sorry, but, I must say, not unexpected take to tell.
S.Africa fold, tamely to 206 all out .. So Aus in front, by 192 .. Which looks massive.
75 overs left in the day, a total of 255 overs, left in the game.
If Aus score .. Even 200, S.Africa would have to chase a total, which looks unlikely.
S.Africa have fragile batters .. No one admits it .. But, when Amla is off form, and Kallis now gone, I wouldn't trust many of them, to score against a top quality attack.
Anyway ..
S.Africa 8.2
Aus 1.36
Draw 6.6
For me, draw should be bigger than S.Africa.
S.Africa get an early stick .. Hope, Joanna !!
Lunch Aus 18-1 .. Lead by 209 .. Cloud thinning if anything .. U wonder how any Clarke would set S.Africa .. 500 ? In 5 sessions ?
Surely .. Hopefully, not more.
Tea - S.Africa getting beaten up .. Dropped catches/sloppy fielding, but Warner batting beutifully (and quickly).
Aus 147-1 .. Lead by 338 .. 37 overs left today, cloud thin .. No rain.
S.Africa 25
Aus 1.30
Draw 5.2
I like Aus
After Tea, more of the same really .. Warner is super, and Doolan is growing in confidence ..
30 overs left.. Aus 372-1, net.
Prices pretty much static .. Not sure, how S.Africa can win .. But, plenty of time, I suppose.
Highest 4th inngs chase here .. 251 ...
Some rain has now appeared likely, towards the end of Day 2 and 3.
It's hot as anything, so, it's to be expected in this area .. Some of the thunderstorms, can be intense.
Not sure how much. The game is going to move, till Tea, unless S.Africa really make some quick inroads. It looks like Aus will score 450, and it will be up to the S.African batters, to pull he bowlers out of a hole ( for a change ).
Prices look right .. Thou, would have to lay Aus, at much shorter.
Morkel gone off a scan on shoulder .. Pressure on other bowlers.
On drinks, Smith goes, for a well deserved 100.
Aus 331-5
S.Africa 6.2
Aus 2.44
Draw 2.34
Wow .. Haddin comes in, attempts a slog to leg, and goes LBW ..
Aus 332-6
S.Africa 4.2
Aus 2.5
Draw 2.68
Aus 352-7
S.Africa fighting back v well ..
S.Africa 4.00
Aus 2.42
Draw 3.0
Lunch Aus get to 374-7 .. Another 60 could be vital.
After lunch, Aus don't do much, ans S.Africa wrap them up, for 397 ..
A good fight back today .. 6 wkts, for 100 runs.
S.Africa 3.85
Aus 2.48
Draw 2.86
Good start for S.Africa, but, Johnson gets smith with a well directed bouncer ..
S.Africa 11-1
S.Africa 4.1
Aus 2.42
Draw 3.15
Troubles for S.Africa .. 3 down, for not many
23-3
S.Africa 6.0
Aus 1.67
Draw 4.2
All Johnson, right now ..
Tea - S.Africa under the cosh - 63-4 .. 334 behind.
39 overs left in the day, cloud getting thicker, but, don't think it will rain .. Until almost close of play, if at all.
Aus have a v special bowler in Mitchell Johnson .. The extra pace he extracts, is a huge difference.
Big ask, for ABDev and Duminy now .. They need a 100 stand ..
S.Africa 5.7
Aus 1.7
Draw 3.85
Duminy falls .. S.Africa 110-5
S.Africa 5.5
Aus 1.64
Draw 4.5
Drinks .. Hot out there ..
Enjoyed Andrew Simmons radio comm .. Different gravy to the dross of SABC muppets.
S.Africa 121-5
S.Africa 6.0
Aus 1.68
Draw 4.3
Any though of rain ( there was some, 10 days ago, has melted in the sweltering sun, and this looks a game, destinnedt I have a lot of play time)
Games between these two sides, rarely end in a draw, and it's a mouth-watering contest.
Pre-toss
S.Africa 2.08
Australia 3.05
Draw 5.0
S.Africa win toss and decide to field.
S.Africa 2.02
Australia 3.25
Draw 4.8
Run line forAus, about 310
Warner goes .. Steyn strikes !!
Aus 15-1
S.Africa 1.96
Aus 3.4
Draw 5.2
Morkel gets a wkt in his first over ..
Aus 24-2
S.Africa 1.73
Aus 3.65
Draw 6.2
Aus recover a bit .. Pitch not as hard, as maybe expected, thou run line, still fairly low, at about 285
Drinks Aus 50-2
S.Africa 2.02
Aus 3.0
Draw 5.6
Aus building, albeit v slowly .. 72-2 ...
And then Doolan gives it away, and exposes Clarke to a tricky 15 mins before lunch.
Aus 72-3
S.Africa 1.84
Aus 3.6
Draw 5.5
Aus make it thru .. To lunch .. Aus 80-3 ..
Not sure what to make of it .. S.Africa bowled some v good lines, and u could argue, Aus tossed away, at least 1 wkt.
I sorta sense, Aus could score 350, but, could also score 250.
No real position change, from opening grief, having backed draw.
S.Africa 1.90
Aus 3.3
Draw 5.6
Clarke gets suckered into a pull .. 98-4
S.Africa 1.67
Aus 3.65
Draw 7.2
Aus return to a position they often found themselves in, re Eng. can they repeat ?
Seems v slow going after lunch ..
Drinks Aus 113-4
S.Africa 1.74
Aus 3.6
Draw 6.6
Pace picking up, as Smith and Marsh settle in, on a pitch, which seems to be getting easier to bat on.
Tea - Aus 175-4 .. U could argue, Aus getting the better of it.
S.Africa 2.32
Aus 3.00
Draw 4.2
Book slowly improving .. Need Draw at 3.6, to get level.
Aus progress after Tea .. 195-4
S.Africa 2.64
Aus 2.78
Draw 3.7
Book almost flat .. Joker played ...
Aus 214-4 ... Taking charge
S.Africa 3.10
Aus 2.6
Draw 3.4
Drinks .. 18 overs left in the day .. New ball, might be crucial
Aus 237-4
S.Africa 3.7
Aus 2.56
Draw 3.0
Aus steadily climb, as the new ball, fails to see much change. S.Africa have preserved it a bit, so, it's fairly new in the morning, but, really need wkts.
Aus finish, on 297-4 ... And spreads have them scoring north of 450.
Hard to see S.Africa winning this now .. And if the pitch doesn't quicken up, think the draw will go v low.
End of play prices :
S.Africa 6.2
Aus 2.32
Draw 238
I would prefer to lay Aus, than back .. But, for now, am flat, with small green.
As a kid, I am not sure I had a wall .. That was my own, anyway, and never thought about putting up a picture, of someone.
I might have chosen, Bobby Charlton - or someone of that ilk, not even considering cricketers, or, anyone from a different field.
If I had to chose one now, v high on the list, would be Edward O Thorpe.
He has many claims to fame :
PhD maths / physics.
Developed first Blackjack card counting system
Developed first roulette speed measurement device, to create a 44% edge
Developed statistical arbitrage models, for the stock market
Went on to run Hedge funds, that beat the market, (at one of his former companies, for 227 months, losing in only 3)
Was one of the first, to discover Bernie Madorf was a fraud.
He has written quite a few books, or had them written about him, and would commend anyone, to read :
During the days, when he was discoveri mathematical models, for beating blackjack, he also discovered significant edges, in the Baccarat side games.
Specifically, when u can bet, the bank or house, will get dealt a natural 8 or 9.
This paper was released, a long time ago, but, it has just been turned into a book :
It only available in print, so, haven't got a copy yet, but, a decent analysis of the theory, is here :
http://apheat.net/2013/11/06/a-favorable-side-bet-in-nevada-baccarat-by-thorp-and-walden/
A true legend
There is a great interview, by Jack D.Schwager , in his book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, which, I would commend to anyone.
( Above is pic of rain from a plane .. Just becos, I like it )
So, anyway ..
A 3 match test series starts quite soon .. With, according to test rankings, the number 1 side, playing number 3.
Number 3, (Aus), just crushed, the mighty England, 12-1, in an assortment of drubbings, so, maybe they are on form .. And it's definately possible, S.Africa are a bit rusty, as they haven't played for a short while.
The 1st test is at Centurion, where, it can definately rain, towards the end of the day.
In the recent past, it's been raining, a bit, during the day .. Which, would be v helpful for draw backers.
With 10 days to the game, rough prices are :
S.Africa 2.44. ( a lay for me )
Aus. 3.4
Draw 3.35 ( in from 3.55, which was probably too big )
For now, I expect a close series .. S.Africa have some questions to answer, especially with injuries maybe causing some replacements.
I have the draw onside.
Hmm .. 4 days before the action starts, and weather has all cleared up. Pretty much, full days play, on most days, is the current forecast, and Watson looks like missing the 1st Test.
Current prices.
S.Africa 2.30
Australia 3.30
Draw 3.90
Draw looks right, but, can't force myself to take the loss.
It will be an interesting series, between bat and ball. It seems, both sides have better bowlers, than batters, so, big partnerships may not be the order of the week.
Still, am gonna wait, before taking the red.
2 days to go.
Pitch looks green, at least now, but am sure sun will have an impact. Watson definately out .. Maybe Hughes will replace him.
S.Africa 2.26
Australia 3.1
Draw 4.3
Am backing draw at bigger prices .. And will take my lumps.
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