So, at end of day 3, India lead by 320, with 8 wkts left.
There have been some wild moves, each day. I am involved, but, the mkts seem 100% right, given known, knowns.
After 3 days :
These are a portion of my positions : Elsewhere, I may have losses.
I really think India will win .. but, its just my view.
Day 4Glorious Blue skies .. No Rain here.
There has been some debate on twitter, re inaccurate info.
I appologise, but, this is weather .. It's not an exact science.
If u suffer losses, I do not want abuse - in the same way, I don't really expect thanks - I am trying to grow markets, by sharing info.
Megarain is a ramp free brand .. Pictures tell the story, most of the time - the rest is interpretation. Any negativity for the brand, will always lead to a block on Twitter.
Drinks .. Just as Pujara is out in 153 .. Good knock
India 315-3 .. Lead 351
Prices barely moving .. 31 runs in 1st hr .. So, a bit slow .. Pitch basically ok, odd one low or bounce.
Lunch - India 358-6, lead by 394 .. 152 overs left in game.
India shortening on wickets, which is always a good sign.
Think draw is just a bit short, thou, if they lose wkts quickly, they might block.
Dhoni at the crease .. Think he will try for quick runs, and either declare/be all out, 20 mins before tea .. With a lead, of hopefully, 480.
They probably already have enough .. No one ever chased this score, in the last inngs if a Test match here ..
With India ..
Amazed India never declared .. Anyway ..
India 421 all out .. Lead by 457 .. 42 overs left today, plus 90 tomorrow.
Draw crashed on some weather ramping on TV .. But, I don't subscribe to that.
I think India win, fairly easy.
Tea - S.Africa 38-0 .. 420 more needed in 124 overs.
Some cloud, but see no reason why it should rain.
Think draw is far too low, and have to lay.
Drinks - 17 overs left in Day .. S.Africa 92-0 .. Need 366 more
V bad session, as backed India sub evens. S.africa looking a possibility .. World Record etc
132–2 .. Light going
Dhoni bowls spinners, to avoid going off.
Light not deteriorating
They got thru to the end, and, it even got lighter, after it finished.
So, S.Africa finish needed another 320 runs, for an unlikely victory, or hold on for the draw.
It's a tough betting situation, and am struggling to find a hold, as to which way to go.
For now, am pretty flat.
Some talk of the possibility of afternoon showers/thunder showers, has seen the mkt, push S.Africa to 14 .. But oddly, India have shortened to 2.04, and draw is static.
I don't necessarily agree it will rain .. It clear at the mo, but Highveld is always hard to predict.
Official weather sites,say 30% chance of thunderstorm, between 3pm and 7pm.
Tricky .. U can see some cracks in the pitch .. India need an early wkt.
On no day in this test, has anyone scored more than 285 .. 320 will be a v big ask, especially if rain curtails overs.
S.Africa lose Petersen .. 151-3 .. 84 overs left
I have lost patience with the Radio 2000 commentary, it is so condescending, so uninformed, I would rather listen to horns blaring ... They should all be fired.
Drinks - Kallis putting on runs quickly, maybe ..
S.Africa 194-3 .. Need 264 in 76 overs. Skies look clear .. Maybe etc
Against Draw ..
Kallis goes .. Unlucky .. LBW, but got inside edge.
202-4 ..need 256 more, in 74
Still against Draw ..
Lunch - S.Africa 236-4 ..need 222 more, in 61 overs
Clouds starting to build .. Maybe get some Draw pressure, in 2 hrs ..
Have reduced Draw exposure ..
Clouds over golf course, appear worse than actual .. But, might spook mkt.
Picture to East
Draw moved to 2.50 during lunch ...
Gone quite light again ..but, in 2 hrs, maybe different story .. Maybe wont matter ..
New ball taken .. S.Africa 247-4 .. Need 211 in 55
Thunder spotted 15 km away .. Doesn't look so bad here, but, it can come quickly, or miss .. Sheer gamble.
Vv volatile .. Rain missed, and AB D batting v well.
Need 178 more, in 47 .. Gone light again.
Draw 2.16 .. Went to 1.75
Drinks .. This is as tricky as can be .. B v v careful
S.Africa getting some breaks .. 15 overs into new ball, Indian bowlers tiring.
Need 160 more, in 41 .. Tea in 35 mins
Over rate is v fair .. Should finish on time, or close to it .. May make a difference
S.Africa 330-4 , need 128 from 31
And that's Tea ... 127 more wanted in final session ..
Not sure I will post much after tea .. It will b too volatile ..
Notes .. I made, but, wil not post till after game.
I think, no rain or light till close to end.
Expect Indian to try slow things down/bowl negatively
SA need 78 off 17, lights on, but light fair.
69 to win
Drinks 1 hr left, 15 overs to get 66 .. SA 392-4 .. AbDev 100, Faff 116
Have moved all green to SA
Wkt - AB dev out .. 402-5
That's not good ..
56 wanted off 13, gloomyish
Unreal game ..
430-6 5 overs left
20 wanted off 24 6 down
Still with SA ..
Some incredible prices traded .. Before last session, I had
India at 180
S.Africa at 80
Draw at 30
Which makes the statement below, all the more, distressing :
Sigh .. S.Africa lose another wkt, and decide to play for the draw.
V expensive for me .. And after 5 days, managed to lose.