3rd Test - Ashes - England v Australia - Manchester

After the 2-0 appetisers, we get to the main course section, where people really start to get twitchy.

Careers are broken, and contracts can be on the line.

After the 2nd convincing win, some pre-game idiots, had England as short as 1.80.

I tucked into this, as saw v little downside, especially as it seems to always rain in Manchester.

A week to go, and they bet :

England 2.04 .. Australia 6.0Draw 2.94

This makes more sense .. And it somewhere near, I would have put it.

(I suppose its easy, being a smart-arse, after the event .. but, if u had laid Eng, in both Tests, at odds-on, u could easily have made money, thru trading).

 

 

 

 

 

 

The series score market, is an interesting diversion, if u have time to waste.

With England leading 2-0, there are many journos/commentators, who are thinking ahead, and trying to get to a 5-0 whitewash.

This was priced at 5.4, earlier in the week, but, now with some rain maybe expected during the Manchester test, has drifted to 6.2.

This is priced more accurately .. As, simple backing of England, for each game, gives 2.0 x 1.8 x 1.7 = 6.12 .. That's assuming my prices for the 4th and 5th test are somewhere near right ..

I have never felt England are really so far ahead of Australia .. But, have confidence, and a better team spirit .. However, backing odds on chances, in tests, has never been my cup of tea, and expect England to get unstuck somewhere, with Aus getting a draw - maybe at Manchester or Durham, which can also, be pretty wet.

 

 

So, the day has arrived, and weather forecasts have been all over the place.

Currently, thinking is day 1-3 look ok, but 4/5, look wet ..

Pre toss :

 

Eng 188

Aus 4.9

Draw 3.75

 

Aus win a good toss, and decide to bat.

 

Eng 1.94

Aus 4.4

Draw 3.8

 

No real position yet, and couldn't lay Eng at so big a price, just yet.

 

Drinks on Day 1, Aus 49-0

 

Eng 2.92

Aus 3.6

Draw 2.62

 

Seamers not really getting much help .. Pitch might be two-paced, Aus score of over 350 looks likely.

Am against Aus at about 4.0.

 

Aus lose the 1st, at 76 .. Watson, out to a good ball, from Bresnan.

 

Eng 2.7

Aus 3.7

Draw 2.74

 

Unreal DRS decision, sees Aus 2 down at lunch.

89-2 seems okish, but, they have failed from here before, and Swann will be v hard to play, later.

Eng 2.32

Aus 3.8

Draw 3.25

 

At the prices, I like Eng a lot. Aus seems to me, a v cheap lay.

 

Aus progress, but lose Rogers on 84, Aus 131-3

 

Eng 2.28

Aus 3.5

Draw 3.55

 

Tea - Aus 180-3

 

Eng 3.1

Aus 3.2

Draw 2.68

 

Hot sun, but maybe showers Sat and rain Monday.

 

Some more crap umpiring, and Aus progress to 303-3 at the close.

Over a Test series, there will be swings and roundabouts, but the standard of umpiring / DRS seems well below what you would expect.

Aus can maybe post 500, and try bowl Eng out. Its likely 30 overs + will be lost to bad weather, so, maybe the draw, is the most likely result, but, it's well in the price.

Eng 9.0

Aus 3.05

Draw 1.78

 

Am against the draw, and have a crap book.

 

Day 2

 

Some light rain in the morning, pre game, and draw crashed to 1.66, and, with an on-time start, and sun, plus runs for Aus, draw went further south, to 1.5x.

2 wkts, and it's back to 1.8x, volatile enough.

Lunch - 392-5

Eng 11

Aus 3.0

Draw 1.72

Have recovered book a bit, and pitch is proving it may well deteriorate quickly on day 4/5, .. Thou rain is forecast etc.

Still against Draw.

 

Aus declare, a few overs after tea .. 527-7

Eng 16

Aus 2.9

Draw 1.68

 

Quite an attacking dec from Clarke .. Would like to lay draw, in the 1.5x area.

Day 3 .. Weather for today, looks ok, but, MondY especially, looks worse.

After Lunch, Eng 148-4 .. Pietersen got a 50, and looking to take the game away from Aus, but, if they get him, the follow-on, looks decidedly possible.

Have worked away at my book, and now it's just against Eng, who I can't see winning.

Would like to back the Draw, but, no value, at 1.5x

Eng 36

Aus 3.05

Draw 1.54

Hope the draw goes much bigger, on wkts.

 

No wickets, and pretty poor session for Aus, with a DRS wicket, not taken, and poor new ball bowling.

Not totally convinced weather for Sunday is that bad, but, this is looking v drawing, with Eng only 110 away from avoiding follow on.

Tea - 211-4 , 315 behind.

Eng 20

Aus 6.6

Draw 1.24

 

Day 4 - Eng 303-7 .. Need 30 more, to avoid follow on, but, rain threatens to intervene, with a lot coming after lunch, and even more on Monday.

Pre play ..

Eng 28

Aus 5.5

Draw 1.26

..

Eng score runs quickly, and easily avoid the follow on.

337-7 .. 190 behind.

 

Eng 16

Aus 14

Draw 1.14 .. After having touched 1.11

 

Lunch Aus 24-1 .. Lead by 183

Eng 15

Aus 6.2

Draw 1.28

 

No rain yet, but likely to be some, in the next 90 mins .. Thou, heavy stuff, may miss to east.

Book is improving, laying 1.11 / 1.2x .. Which was a gamble, but still.

 

End day 4, and it's easy to heap some blame on the Umpires, for going off early, but, rain was coming later, and u could argue, Clarke should have declared earlier.

The whole series has been best with poor umpiring and DRS technology, and it should even itself out, but, it's easy to think, Aus have been hard done by.

Tomorrow will probably see only 60 overs of play, and a draw will no doubt result .. So, England retain the Ashes.

Congrats to them, but, it somehow feels v hollow.

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The Ashes - so far - Ramdom Thoughts

Pre series, I thought Aus would struggle to win a game, and almost wrote an article, on a new website, but, it never happened.

The 1st game, would have had me worried, but, the second, has reinforced my view, and, thou I still believe England are over-rated, just can't see a historically poor Aussie team, beating them.

The weather has been blissful so far, but, am hopeful the rains will come for Manchester, and we get some weather trading.

I like the way Cook leads England, and,thou by a few accounts, he needs some presentation / motivational speaking skills, to be enhanced, it's clear the team has a few characters, and a general good team spirit.

I suppose it's fairly easy to have this, when u are winning, but it's stil nice to see.

Ticket touts have been doing a great business, and was asked to pay £275 for a Day 1 ticket at Lords .. I didn't .

The grounds are doing far more to engage the public, which is great .. Someone is listening.

 

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Social Media

Sorry not to have done much blogging lately, just been really lazy, and some of my thoughts, would have really pissed off some people.

This is it my intention, but, sometimes, u just can't help it.

Social Media is a lot like that. People want info, but your stuff gets repeated, people get jealous, and start calling u names. It's tedious, but that's the downside to having a social media prescience, and now Block idiots a lot quicker.

Sometimes, experience pros, lose their rag, and it's hard to fathom. All I can think, is that they are having a bad trot ( P/L ) wise, and lose their sense of balance.

When this happens, it's sad .. But, it's easier for all concerned, just to block them, ( on twitter ) for a cooling off period .. And let them back later, if they want .. Maybe, they don't, which is also fine.

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WSOP - 2013

Have been wasting huge swathes of time, watching both the live feeds, and on-demand output, from the 60 odd bracelet events, in this years competitions.

ESPN hold the rights, and the coverage is v good, with only some moans, arising from occasional sound/picture loss, and a few events, missing key parts.

The coverage is mainly final table,and shows hand-by-hand,for between 5-8 hrs,depending how the events take.

The final table money ladders, are often v considerable, ranging from say $50k, in 9th place, to $300k in 4th, and $750k to the winner, so, bad beats etc, are v costly.

As the pay jumps are so big, ICM, (independent chip model), has great usage, as players have to be v aware, of playing marginal hands, or even strong hands, where variance can be either extremely costly or rewarding.

It's notable, a lot of the tables are mainly male, normally, young males, who have all paid between $1k and $111k, to pay each event. The $111k event, - the "One Drop", supports a water charity, and 11k per entry, is donated.

Field size has been v good, and this years $10k main event, had 6500 entries .. That's a big prize pool, with the top 10% getting paid.

On-line poker has just about begun in New Jersey, and Las Vegas is not far behind. The sites are rushing to finish the products, and its a question, of whether u want to be first to market, or have the best product. I hope the products are good - for now, only state-wide is legal, so, someone in Texas can't play with someone in Vegas, but, hopefully, things will change a the federal level, fairly soon.

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The Ashes - 1st Test - Trent Bridge

And so it starts.

I think Darren Lehman will prove to be a good coach .. so long as Aus are playing well ..

Not sure, they have the team, to be all that competitive, despite the fact, I think Eng are a tad over-rated.

Price ,, pre- Day 1 - No weather issues .. should see full 5 days.

Eng 1.95

Aus 4.1

Draw 3.95

Traders expecting no draw, as pitch will deteriorate quickly, days 4/5.

Am playing golf, all of Day 1, so wont be doing much, but have left up some lays of the draw, below 3.0.

End Day 1 .. didn't watch much, but golf was fun.

Eng were 215 all-out, and Aus 75-4 in return.

Eng 1.76

Aus 2.76

Draw 17

Lunch Day 2 .. Aus fly, then fall, now flying again

Aus quickly scored 35 runs, and moved to almost favs, before losing a clutch of wkts, for a few runs, and at 117-9, 100 behind, they were in huge trouble, and Eng, 1.2x or so.

An unreal partnership, .. which is still going, now sees :

Eng 1.75

Aus 2.72

Draw 16

Broad is 95% a passenger .. but still think Aus will struggle to win .. pitch looks a belter now ..

Am against Aus, at good average.

End day 3, and have been dipping in and out, at various times.

Eng 260-6 net, on a wearing pitch, with some chance of rain, after tea on Day 4, but, time can be made up on Day 5, which looks clear.

Eng 1.33

Aus 5.6

Draw 13

Highest 4th inngs chase .. at Trent Bridge is 284 .. so, chasing even 260, will be tough.

Flat book, for now, but will lay draw, if it goes sub 10.

 

Interesting twists to the game, not least The Tie, traded at 11.0.

 

England are the better side. Not sure Aus will win a game.

 

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Telegraph article - re courtsiders / data mules

Interesting article, by Nick Hoult

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10158493/Cricket-crackdown-on-fans-who-pass-information-to-bookmakers.html

I am not sure, what .. Any cricket union can really do. If the data mules are banned from grounds, they will just go outside, or , somewhere close by, and get the 'live' radio feeds, which, equate to the same thing.

Are the ECB gonna stop radio comms .. ? Or delay them ? .. And really, how hard is it, to employ a student , to watch the game, playing with a mobile phone, which everyone seems to do.

Very hard to police .. In my view, the feeds should be open, and the ICC should release as much inf as possible .. Including light meter readings/weather info/injuries/Duckworth Lewis calcs/ etc. Give it to everyone, and make it value less ..

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Barny Boatman - WSOP bracelet

So, at 58, Barny finally wins a much coveted WSOP bracelet, in the $1500 No-limit Hold-em event, winning some $500k in the process.

I couldn't be happier for him .. hes a trier, who has consistently railed Brits, and often been the first to congratulate others.

There was a boisterous rail, uniquely British, with the humorous chanting, and the 3 hour-heads up phase, will make great viewing.

I am watching a lot of the stuff, via the Espn.com/poker on demand application, which, allows access for £3 a week. Have watched many hours of the stuff, and the commentary has fantastic insight.

If you listen to Barnys interviews afterwards, you see, just how classy he is .. congratulating his opponent, etc .. a top guy.