An Apple a day ..

The Gambling Commission has appointed a new Chairman :

Bill Moyes, who has been heavily criticised in his role as Chairman of the Dental Council.

Quite what, Teeth, and Gambling have in common, I am not sure .. but, maybe, we shall see the GC take a bite out of the Bookies.

Hes got the gig for 5 yrs .. 55k a yr ..

Betting Podcasts

As regular subscribers of this podcast will know, I like Podcasts.

A new one has come on the horizon : https://soundcloud.com/user-384487594 which shows a decent amount of ingenuity from Matchbook, which, is a site, I am gaining a degree of respect for.

I am fairly active on some of the Matchbook markets .. it will be interesting to see if they dissect some of my trades ..

Anyway, new content is always welcome .. especially if its well produced, and has decent participants.

I wish them well.

Wacky Races

Its been a hell of a week.

They say a week is a longtime in Politics, and I can see why.

Clinton once looked clear, and only had to jump the final fence, but, now, the exchange markets, have drifted her from 1.45 - maybe 2 weeks ago, to 1.65 or so, on the back of coughing/collapsing, and Trumps' marketing savvy.

Lets be clear, I think Clinton is a v weak candidate - has little personal appeal, and clearly has issues with the truth .. but, Trump, says things, which just make no sense, and are both politically naive, and incorrect.

Trump is presently available to lay . in as much size as most would want, at 2.94. Clinton is 1.62.

The markets are a traders dream .. and if u have a view, and want to market-make .. u can make a decent book. (That is .. if u live outside the US .. u cant bet on politics in the land-of-the-free).

A v respected website, which has called the last few US elections, almost perfectly .. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ , makes Clinton / Trump 60:40.

That makes Clinton 1.6x .. which equates to the betting markets, but, I feel there is a disconnect.

I have heard stories, that it costs relatively little, for campaign managers to pump money into betting markets, distorting things. Its more natural, to expect it to happen, closer to the race .. but, $25m traded on Betfair .. is peanuts  .. considering presidential elections cost, literally billions. (2012 cost $2 billion, and this yrs, is expected to cost $5billion)

Conspiracy ?

Who knows ? All I know .. is that I have waited all yr, to Lay Trump. At sub 3.0, I have had to get involved.

For those who want to listen to excellent political podcasts, take your pick .. its a big market:

https://player.fm/en/featured/election-2016

Setting fire to money

In a different life, I was invited to lunch, with a legend of bookmaking. ( I was a peanut, and was .. frankly, in awe of him)

These lunches, tend to be v long, with a v big bill at the end, and u are never allowed to pay.

One day, I decided to take a stand, and try to pay.

The bookmaker, took out a roll of 50 pound notes, placed them in a pile, on a plate in the table, and took out his lighter.

He said, I had a choice, let him pay the bill, or watch, 2x the amount, go up in smoke.

I was thinking this thru, when, he took out a lighter, and lit the corner of the first 50 pound note. It quickly took .. and flames started. It wasnt my money, but, felt it wrong, to let them burn.

So, I put them out.

I was reminded of this, listening, to a podcast, where the main guest, was Alan Boston.

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2016/09/episode-186-alan-boston-fixed/

I have often listened to his interviews, and found them informative,honest and entertaining.

He seems to have been a great friend to many, and hope he gets a few breaks .. we all need them.

Gambling Commission - In-Play (in-running) betting : position paper

As it says on the tin :

Overview of their position :

In-play betting

What is in-play betting?

In-play betting (or in-running or live betting as it is also known) is betting while the event is actually taking place, for example, placing a bet on a horserace while the race is being run, or on a football match whilst it is being played. This form of betting takes place mainly, but not exclusively, on sporting events.

In-play betting is predominantly an online activity with bets being made via the internet using either a betting exchange or a traditional bookmaker’s website, but it also takes place in betting shops or over the phone.

What are the risks to the licensing objectives from in-play betting?

We do not consider, at this time, that in-play betting represents a significant risk to the licensing objectives over and above any other type of gambling. We do however acknowledge that, like other forms of gambling, in-play betting potentially raises a number of issues that could impact on the licensing objectives. These issues can be distilled into three groups:

• fairness and transparency of the betting
• integrity of the betting
• risk of harm within the betting medium.

Fairness and openness

With regard to the issues potentially affecting fairness and openness, such as speed of feeds or use of ‘bots’, in-play betting does not appear to generate specific risks to the licensing objectives as long as bettors are sufficiently aware of their position and the respective positions of other bettors and the betting operators.

This includes ensuring that any information deficit is clearly understood, as are any built-in time delays to operator systems. We do not consider it necessary to intervene to prevent some players using technology advantages, such as faster connectivity speeds, to gain a competitive edge provided it is clear to all players that this can be done.

Betting integrity

In relation to betting integrity, there is potential for individuals to exploit in-play betting for criminal or otherwise inappropriate gain. However, other forms of betting also have similar potential for exploitation. We do not consider that in–play betting requires further regulatory controls to those already applied within our wider efforts to maintain integrity in sports betting.

Risk of harm

People who bet in-play may place a higher number of bets in a shorter time period than people who bet in other ways, as in-play betting offers more opportunities to bet. Some studies have shown that placing a high number of bets can be an indication that a bettor may be at risk of harm from gambling. We do not consider that someone who bets in-play is automatically at increased risk of harm from gambling, but expect that licensees will monitor all bettors for signs of risk as required by our Licence conditions and codes of practice (LCCP).

We conclude that the risk to the licensing objectives from in-play betting is appropriately managed through the current regulatory framework and controls applied by licensees. We will continue to monitor in-play betting for fairness and openness as part of our overall betting compliance programme, and take its particular characteristics into account in our wider work on integrity in sports (and other) betting and gambling related harm.

Full paper can be downloaded here :

http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/pdf/In-running-betting-position-paper.pdf

Tipping isnt so hard .. u just gotta be lucky

Still on holiday .. and sort of whimsical .. especially reading some of the entertaining slanging matches, on offer, on certain blogs.

I have never belonged to a tipping service, and never wanted to start one .. but, I was sufficiently impressed by the ingenuity of Bfbotmanager (which, I dont use), to start a tipping account, on tippingsports.com

After hours of research (ok, maybe 5 mins), I have stuck up 7 tips, under the disguised tipster account, of Mr-Cricket, and gone 6 out of 7, with the only loser, trading evens, from 3.75 advised.

The tips are showing a 5.34 unit level stake profit.

I am not sure what to do now. Do I just quit ? Become v selective .. so, users are begging for more ? or rock on, and go for the home-run ?

Will have to have a deep think.