Big bash - Hobart Hurricanes v Brisbane Heat

Semi final place, up for grabs

Hurricanes win the toss and bat



Avg score batting 1st - 166

Hurricanes 1.65

Run line 161



No real opinion .. Will watch ..



Hurricanes 4-0 after 1, Hurricanes 1.73. .. No position

Hurricanes 10-0 after 2, Hurricanes 1.72

Hurricanes 15-0 after 3, Hurricanes 1.75 .. Laid them, small

Hurricanes 20-0 after 4, Hurricanes 1.75 .. Same position

Hurricanes 23-0 after 5, Hurricanes 1.83 .. They a bit lucky, not to be 1 down.

Hurricanes 36-0 after 6, Hurricanes 1.76 .. Will go flat, for small win

Hurricanes 43-0 after 7, Hurricanes 1.67 .. Still flat

Wkt - Paine 23 from 27, Hurricanes 1.82 .. Laid them again.

Hurricanes 48-1 after 8, Hurricanes 1.87

Hurricanes 59-1 after 9, Hurricanes 1.74

Wkt - Birt 32 from 25, Hurricanes 1.86

Hurricanes 67-2 after 10, Hurricanes 1.88

Hurricanes 74-2 after 11, Hurricanes 1.86ish .. API down

Hurricanes 79-2 after 12, Hurricanes 1.88ish ..

Wkt - Ponting 17 from 16

Hurricanes 84-3 after 13, Heat fav, 1.74

Hurricanes 87-3 after 14, Heat 1.79

Hurricanes 92-3 after 15, Heat 1.79

Hurricanes 106-3 after16, Heat 1.80. .. Gone flat

Hurricanes 110-3 after 17, Heat 1.64 .. API back

Hurricanes 124-3 after 18, Heat 1.75 .. Laying Heat

Hurricanes 138-3 after 19, Heat 2.00 .. Take some profit

Hurricanes finish on 150 .. Even game, got small book.

Could be a tricky chase .. Will watch for a bit.



150 or less, has never been defended at is ground ....



Here's the reply : Some cloud, rain possible

Heat 7-0 after 1, Heat 1.86

Heat 14-0 after 2, dropped a sitter, Heat 1.63

Heat 25-0 after 3, Heat 1.46 .. Good start .. Need 126 from 102

Heat 39-0 after 4, Heat 1.25 .. Looks a decent price

Wkt - lol - Forrest 17 from 10, 39-1 after 4.1 Heat 1.40

Heat 55-1 after 5, Heat 1.23 .. Have lumped on Heat

Heat 59-1 after 6, Heat 1.18 .. Still with Heat

Heat 72-1 after 7, Heat 1.08 will book some profit

Pomersbach 50 off 24... Match winning, u would think

Heat 92-1 after 8, Heat 1.01 ... GSM .. Need 59 from 72

Heat 96-1 after 9, Heat 1.01   .. need 56 from 66 ..

Pommersbach hit on toe, but, this is over ..

Heat 114-1 after 10, Heat 1.00

Had a decent game ... been a v good tourny ..

5th in Poker Tourny last nite

2nd Test - S.Africa v N.Zealand - Port Elizabeth

Philander out with an injury, and an interesting fact, that S.Africa haven't won a test here, since the turn of the century.

Does that matter ?

Sometimes yes, sometimes not. Maybe the pitch doesn't help the balance of a typical S.African side, and maybe they are playing opponents who are so inferior, it won't matter.

It's hard for N.Zealand. They are not so bad, but, omissions from their best possible team, hasn't helped, and S.Africa are by my reckoning, the best in the World, by about 5%,

It gets cold, in Port Elizabeth,but, little rain is forecast, and it's just a question of how much of a fight, N.Zealand put up.

Pre-game.

 

S.Africa. 1.24

N.Zealand. 17.0

Draw. 7.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone wins the toss.. Couldn't get ino the frigging ground, as ticket office off-line, and 100 paying public, treated pretty poorly.

 

S.africa batting .. Fire in distance .

 

At drinks .. S.Africa 45-1

 

Lunch .. Cold and windy - but no real threat of rain. SA 99-1 off 27 overs.

The odd chance, but, SA in control, on a pitch which will probably get slower and lower, as game progresses.

 

Drinks in the afternoon session .. SA 152-3 .. NZ been a bit unlucky .. Pitch definately doesn't seem to suit SA .. Price a bit low, at 1.25, but couldn't get involved.

Tea - still cold .. SA 191-3 .. 54 overs, about right - thou, with some luck, they could easily be 5 down.

 

5th in Poker Tourny last nite

Cricket saturation - random thoughts

I have had a few people contact me, on why I seem to always make profits. My general reply, is, that's the general idea ..

People who are not making profits, generally, are doing the wrong things.

There is so much cricket, u have a vast array of markets to choose from, and specialise in a form of cricket, u understand. A lot of the markets, have a bias, which sometimes is incorrect. To recognise which .. Takes some experience, but, u will get there, if u look hard enough.

I spend a lot of time reading, away from cricket, and am presently enjoying Barry Greenstein's book - "How I made my first Million from Poker".

In it, he tells, how important it is, to keep your mind fresh. With so much cricket, it's sometimes hard to keep awake, let alone, find new lines. I agree with him, 100%, that u need to take regular vacations, away from the TV, to avoid getting stale, and think about things. Your brain is a very powerful tool, but, it's often busy, doing other stuff. By switching off, u might get a "a ha" moment ..



Sitting at an airport, I just had a "a ha" moment.

It arose, as I was thinking about the value of playing random cards, against premium ones.

That's the only clue.

In future, I will assign a value, "F", to limited over games, and some Tests. F will always be a whole number. The 1st person to correctly deduce, what F is, wins .....

5th in Poker Tourny last nite

Big Bash - Adelaide Strikers v Perth Scorchers - Adelaide

Big game, with the winner hosting a home semi-final.

No Pollard for Adelaide .. And they choose 4 spinners.

Pre-toss, an absolute pick-em game.

Scorchers win the toss, and bat.

Run spreads 159

I like the Scorchers, a bit. ... Lets see what Lumpy does.



Strikers shorten a fraction, to 1.94



Here we go



Scorchers 5-0 after 1, scorchers go fav, 1.85, pitch not spinning much, and Strikers have chosen 4 spinners.

Scorchers 22-0 after 2, Nathan Lyon, v expensive .. Scorchers 1.63, will book some profit,

Scorchers 23-0 after 3, Scorchers 1.68

Scorchers 25-0 after 4, Scorchers 1.75 .. Slowed a bit, but, they having a look ... Still with Scorchers

Scorchers 42-0 after 5, Scorchers 1.63 ... Book a little more profit

Scorchers 49-0 after 6, scorchers 1.66 ..

Scorchers 56-0 after 7, Scorchers 1.60 .. Gone flat ..

Scorchers 62-0 after 8, Scorchers 1.63 .. High score pitch, all in the price.

Scorchers 73-0 after 9, scorchers 1.49 .. Laying Scorchers. With profit.

Scorchers 78-0 after 10, Scorchers 1.50 ...

Scorchers 85-0 after 11, Scorchers 1.54 .. Good platform, but, v high scoring pitch .. All in the price.

Scorchers 95-0 after 12, Scorchers 1.53 .. Gibbs gets 50

Wkt - Gibbs 54 from 35, Scorchers 1.64 .. Booking profit on lay

Scorchers 100-1 after 13, Scorchers 1.64 ... Looks a good score, but they need to kick on .. Lay now, at price, if anything.

Scorchers 114-1 after 14, Scorchers 1.53

Scorchers 124-1 after 15, Scorchers 1.41 .. Gone flat again .. Some profit.

Scorchers 140-1 after 16, Scorchers 1.31 ..

Scorchers 154-1 after 17, Scorchers 1.29 ..

Wkt - Voges 35 from 18, Scorchers 1.33 .. 157-2 after 17.3

Scorchers 164-2 after 18, Scorchers 1.28

Wkt - Marsh 79 from 60, Scorchers 1.23. 178-2 after 18.5

Wkt - Triffitt 0 from 1

Scorchers 178-4 after 19, Scorchers 1.28 .. Looks right

Scorchers finish on 189 ... Some run spread bettors happy, some not.

Feel they have a chance to chase this, but, not really involved.



Here's the reply :



Wkt - Klinger 0 from 2, Scorchers had. Plumb LBW turned down 1st ball, so, justice .. Scorchers 1.11

Strikers 5-1 after 1, Scorchers 1.11

Wkt - Head 4 from 5, Scorchers 1.06

Strikers 7-2 after 2, Scorchers 1.07

Strikers 13-2 after 3, Scorchers 1.07

Strikers 21-2 after 4, Scorchers 1.07

Strikers 25-2 after 5, Scorchers 1.06

Strikers 28-2 after 6, Scorchers 1 05

Wkt - Ludeman 28-3 after 6.1, Scorchers 1.02 .. Looks GSM

Wkt - 30-4 after 7, Scorchers 1.00. .. I seen enough, off to Gym.



Had a small win.

5th in Poker Tourny last nite

Big Bash - Sydney Sixers v Melbourne Renegades - Sydney

7 teams with a mathematical chance of getting to the finals, but Sixers know they have to win .. Big. .. Probably by 60 runs, or get the chasing total, in 12 overs.

Renegades already in the finals.

A few team changes .. Hales gets off a plane, and bats - No Finch for Renegades.

Renegades win toss and bat ..

Sixers shorten, from 1.83 to 1.71 .. Which seems v low.

Run line - 150 initially, revised down 147

Avg 1st Inngs score here - 148

Money keeps coming for Sixers .. 1.66 ??



He's the start .. Sixers 1.64. Have to lay this price.



Renegades 2-0 after 1, good over by Lee .. Dropped sitter, Sixers 1.59

Wkt - Harris v poor - 1 from 9, Sixers 1.41

Renegades 2-1 after 2, Sixers 1.38 ..

Lumpy got this right .. Harris out of form, Hales just off plane .. Still have laid Sixers more, avg now 1.52

Renegades 5-1 after 3, Sixers 1.35

Renegades 11-1 after 4, Sixers 1.38 .. Not sure what to do .. So, gonna stick with lay .. Could be v wrong, or v right .. #gamble

Renegades 33-1, 22 off the over, and dropped last ball .. Hales batting well, Sixers 1 68

Wkt - Doolan 5 from 4, out to a loosener .. Sixers 1.51

Fast moving game .. Tried to back Sixers at 1.7x, and missed.

Renegades 38-2 after 6, Sixers 1.55 ... Can get out, for a draw .. Don't really want to ..

Lee stays on, as Sixers need wkts .. If none this over, will try lay Sixers more.

Renegades 46-2 after 7, Sixers 1.58

Renegades 53-2 after 8, Sixers 1.65 .. Reduce Red a little ..

Renegades 60-2 after 9, Sixers 1.70 .. Reduce red a little more .. Book ok.

Renegades 65-2 after 10, Sixers 1.65 ..low to me, thou Sixers missed 3 decent chances so far.

Renegades 82-2 after 11, Renegades fav 1 84 .. Nice Book - Hales 52 from 36

Renegades 91-2 after 12, Renegades 1.71

Renegades 102-2 after 13, Renegades 1.60 .. Decent price.

Renegades 111-2 after 14, Renegades 1.51 ..

Hales going ballistic .. 83 from 50 .. Renegades 1.25 .. #bigwin 26 off over

Renegades 137-2 after 15, Renegades 1.18

Wkt - Hales 89 from 51, Renegades 1.26

Renegades 146-3 after 16, renegades 1.27

Renegades 154-3 after 17, Renegades 1.26 .. Sixers gonna need 185 or so, in 12 overs to qualify .. Gonna stay in my position, for now. Avg price 2.8

Rohrer gets 50 from 32

Renegades 164-3 after 18, Renegades 1.26

Wkt - Rohrer 57 from 37, Renegades 1.33

Renegades 170-4 after 19, Renegades 1.28

Wkt - 171-5, 3 balls to go, Renegades 1.35

Renegades 178-5 ... Renegades 1.29 .. Might green up, but for now, this is my position on Betdaq ... Can't show BF.

Here's the reply .. Sixers need 178 in 12 overs, to qualify

Sixers 8-0 after 1, Renegades 1.29

Wkt - Maddinson 9 from 8, renegades 1.20

Sixers 13-1 after 2, Renegades 1.18

Sixers 25-1 after 3, Renegades 1.25 .. Gonna go flat

Sixers 38-1 after 4, Renegades 1.43 .. They might get close #flat

Sixers 41-1 after 5, renegades 1.39

Wkt - Lumb 21 from 14

Wkt - Hughes 7 from 12, Renegades 1.07. GSM

Sixers 43-3 after 6, Renegades 1.08

Wkt - Henreiques 0 from 2, Renegades 1.03. 46-4 after 6.4

Sixers 49-4 after 7, Renegades 1.04

Sixers 54-4 after 8, Renegades 1.02

Sixers 61-4 after 10, Renegades 1.03

Wkt - 66-5 after 10.4. Renegades 1.01

Sixers 67-5 after 11, Renegades 1.01

Sixers 77-5 after 12, Renegades 1.01

Sixers 93-5 after 13, Renegades 1.04

Sixers 100-5 after 14, Renegades 1.04

Sixers 111-5 after 15, Renegades 1.05

Sixers 119-5 after 16, Renegades 1.04. .. Need 60 from 24

Wkt - 120-6 .. Renegades 1.01

Am done with this, had a v decent game.

Computers Killed in Action Last Year - 4

Big Bash - Melbourne Stars v Sydney Thunder - Melbourne

Stars look to be without Malinga.

Late stages of the Tourny now, and lotsa "must-win" games .. This time, it's for the Stars .. Thunder have lost 7 from 7, and are playing for wages/jobs.

Stars aren't so great, but Thunder are poor.

Pre-game .. Stars drift from 1.50 to 1.57 ... Prob cos of Malinga.



Stars win toss and bat

Run line - 163



Gayle plays for Thunder .. And to say he owes em 1, is an understatement.



Small lay of Stars, initially. (Betdaq offline)



Changed my mind, got tiny position with Stars.



Looks a good pitch .. Think Lumpy will try get with Stars.



Here we go ..



Stars 3-0 after 1, Stars 1.61

Stars 13-0 after 2, Stars 1.53. .. With the Stars, at 1.64 avg

Wkt - Wright runs himself out .. 6 from 9, Stars 1.63

Stars 18-1 after 3, Stars 1.62 .. I make them bigger, so have taken, v small profit, and am trying to lay Stars, at lower levels. Lumpy is in the house.

Stars 25-1 after 4, Stars 1.68 .. Which is a tad low, but, couldn't have a bet.

Stars 28-1 after 5, Stars 1.70

Part-time bowler on .. Gets hit for 2x4, then, wkt

Wkt - Quinney 22 from 19, Stars 1.75

Stars 37-2 after 6, Stars 1.77 .. About right .. No position

Stars 47-2 after 7. Stars 1.72 .. But low, laying small.

Stars 55-2 after 8, Stars 1.63 .. Laying a bit more.

Stars 63-2 after 9, Stars 1.57 .. Some rain coming in .. Light stuff

Stars 70-2 after 10, Stars 1.63 .. Hard to get a position, at these prices.

Stars 77-2 after 11, Stars 1.61 .. V slight rain on Radar, shud be ok

Free hit, followed by 4,6 .. Lumpy back on Stars big.

Stars 94-2 after 12, Stars 1.35 .. Against Stars at 1.48 avg ..not happy, but, will let it go

Wkt - Hodge 39 from 26, Stars 1.46

Stars 100-3 after 13, Stars 1.40 .. Mkt expecting 170

Wkt - Hussey 32 from 28 , Stars 1.51 .. Will reduce Red ( at profit)

Stars 108-4 after 14, Stars 1.52

Stars 118-4 after 15, Stars 1.44 .. About right, but 170 is only Par

Wkt - Maxwell -7 from 12, Stars keep losing wkts, but still 1.43

Stars 127-5 after 16, Stars 1.44 .. Against Stars BIG .. At 1.34 avg

Stars 132-5 after 17, Stars1.54 .. They need 170, to justify this price

Wkt - Take that Lumpy ! Stars 1.67. 16 balls left, 133-6

Stars 135-6 after 18, Stars1.84 .. Got v nice book

Stars 140-6 after 18, Thunder 1.98 .. Thunder great price

Wkt - 141-7 after 19.2 .. Thunder 1.80 .. Taking some profit

Wkt - 143-8 after 19.5 .. Thunder 1.68

Stars finish on 145 .. Thunder 1.66 ...


Will show position on Betfair as well as Betdaq, as Betdaq offline, for majority of game :

Will stay with Thunder, for a bit, as have wiggle room.



Here's the reply :



Thunder 7-0 after 1, Thunder 1.64 .. 1 good shot from Gayle, 1 avg one

Thunder 15-0 after 2, Thunder 1.45 .. Gayle nails a 6

Wkt - Keen 4 from 2, Thunder 1.55 (went 1.36)

Thunder 21-1 after 3, Thunder 1.60 .. Laying to reduce Red .. Small

Phone call, I had to take .. Distracted

Thunder 40-1 after 4, Thunder 1.36

Thunder 52-1 after 5, Thunder 1.20

Thunder 59-1 after 6, Thunder 1.16 .. Back with this now .. Thunder had some luck .. Missed catches etc .. Will lay. Small, to reduce red

Thunder 61-1 after 7, Thunder 1.20

Wkt - Prior 7 from 16, Thunder 1.37 .. If Gayle goes, this will be even game

Thunder 66-2 after 8, gone more or less flat .. Taken some tie insurance

Thunder 73-2 after 9, Thunder 1.23

Thunder 77-2 after 10, Thunder 1.24

Thunder 82-2 after 11, Thunder 1.37 .. Mkt expecting implosion

Thunder 91-2 after 12, Thunder 1.19 .. Gayle 64 from 41

Wkt - Gayle 64 from 42 ... Thunder 1.44 ... Grubbing v poss

Thunder 100-3 after 13, Thunder 1.25 (1.48 after wkt ) .. Still flat

Wkt - Khawaja - 23 from 18, game on , Thunder 1.53

Thunder 102-4 after 14, Thunder 1.52 ...need 44 from 36

Wkt - Abbott - 3 from 4, Thunder 1.98 .. Fancy Stars now .. 105-6, need 40 from 32

Thunder 107-5 after 15, Stars fav, 1.84

Thunder 109-5 after 16, Stars 1.46 .. Good price if anything, but, out of this game now. .. Need 38 from 24

Wkt - 110-6 .. Stars 1.22

Thunder 113-6 after 17, Stars 1.20

Wkt - suicidal run-out .. 118-7 after 17.5 .. Need 28 from 13, Stars 1.04

Thunder 118-7 after 18, Stars 1.04

Wkt - 122-8 .. Stars 1.01

Thunder 128-8 after 19, Need 18 from 6, Stars 1.02

Need 14 from 4, Stars 1.01

Wkt ..

Stars win ....


Had a decent enough game ; Hard to believe Thunder couldnt win this one, but, losing can become a habit.

Computers Killed in Action Last Year - 4

Big Bash - Heat v Sixers - Brisbane

Both need teams to win, to have a chance to be involved in finals, so, it should be game on.

During the campaign, both have been a little short, with Heat winning 3 from 6, Sixers just 2.

Heat win the toss and bat.

Avg 1st inngs score .. 169

Heat 1.80

Run line 163



Here we go

Heat 0-0 after 1 over of spin .. Heat 1.91

Wkt - Hopes 0 from 8, horror inngs .. Sixers fav 1.79

Heat 7-1 after 2, Sixers 1.73

Heat 13-1 after 3, Sixers 1.79

No real position yet

Heat 16-1 after 4, Sixers 1.74

Heat 21-1 after 5, Sixers 1.69 ..would like to be with Sixers, but, want 1.75+

Heat 30-1 after 6, Sixers 1.74

Have backed Sixers at 1.80 avg

End of power play ..

Heat 36-1 after 7, Sixers 1.69

Heat 47-1 after 8, Sixers 1.79

Heat 57-1 after 9, Heat fav 1.88 .. Wkts in the shed, and back on track for 160

Wkt - Burns 27 from 20, Sixers 1.79

Heat 59-2 after 10, Sixers 1.74 .. Backed Sixers more ..

Wkt - Pomersbach 37 from 34, Sixers 1.58

Heat 66-3 after 11, Sixers 1.58 .. Will take some profit - Sixers avg now 2.4

Wkt - Christian 2 from 3, Sixers 1.41

Heat 70-4 after 12, Sixers 1.40 .. Got nice book

Wkt - 70-5 .. Sixers 1.26

Heat 74-5 after 13, Sixers 1.26, gone flat

Heat 77-5 after 14. Sixers 1.27

Heat 86-5 after 15, Sixers 1.30 .. If they score 50 off last 5, might be a game.

Wkt - Heat 90-6 after 15.4 .. Sixers 1.24

Heat - 96-6 after 16, Sixers 1.25

Heat - 99-6 after 17, Sixers 1.24

Price seems a little stuck, and get the impression, it wants to go bigger, rather than shorter. Have green book, with profit more on Heat.

Wkt - 109-7 .. Sixers 1.24

Heat 118-7 after 19, Sixers 1.27

Heat finish on 127-9 .. Prob not enough, but am finished with this game.



Here's the reply ..



Sixers 12-0 after 1, Sixers 1.11

Sixers 15-0 after 2, Sixers 1.13

Wkt - Haddin - 16 from 12, 20-1, Sixers 1.21 .. Another now, would be nice.

Sixers 20-1 after 3, Sixers 1.22

Sixers 29-1 after 4, Sixers 1.18

Sixers 37-1 after 5, Sixers 1.16

Sixers 49-1 after 6, Sixers 1.08 .. Need 79 from 84

Sixers 56-1 after 7, Sixers1.06

Wkt - Maddinson 17 from14, Sixers 1.10

Sixers 58-2 after 8, Sixers 1.13 .. Mkt sensing something ?

Sixers 62-2 after 9, Sixers 1.14

Laying Sixers small

Sixers 70-2 after 10, Sixers 1.09

Sixers 74-2 after 11, Sixers 1.09

Sixers 76-2 after 12, Sixers 1.15 .. This may have a twist .. Need 54 from 48

Sixers 83-2 after 13, Sixers 1.12

Wkt - Henriques 12 from 17, Sixers 1.24 .. Need 45 from 41

Sixers 85-3 after14, Sixers need 43 from 36, Sixers 1.28 ..nervy times ahead.

Roach spills a hard chance, and it goes for 4 .. Probably the game.

Sixers 99-3 after 15, Sixers 1.07

Wkt - next ball, Sixers 1.16 ..need 29 from 29

Sixers 106-4 after 16, Sixers 1.05

Sixers 108-4 after 17, Sixers 1.15 .. Need 20 off 18

Wkt - 111-5, Sixers need 17 from 14, Sixers 1.32

Sixers 119-5 after 18, need 9 from12, Sixers 1.03

Sixers win, by 5 wkts

Had a decent game.

Computers Killed in Action Last Year - 4