Industry roundup

A very good blog, www.sportismadeforbetting.com, by Scott Ferguson, has a great write-up on the state of the industry :

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/12/the-regular-industry-roundup.html

Makes some v good points about 2 favorite topics of mine, US gaming legislation, and Betfair trading outlooks.

Well worth a look.

(Betfair share price, down to £7.22, from £7.70, when half-yr tradng results came out, a week ago).

Big Bash - Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes - Docklands

Covered roof, so, no problems with rain.

Renegades won the toss, and elected to field.

Hurricanes 1.88

Renegades 2.14

Run line - 162

Renegades had 2 fairly day games, but Hurricanes will be harder. All games in this league, have been won by chasing sides so far .. This, might be different.

Am with the Hurricanes, early.

Here we go :

Hurricanes 6-0 after 1, Hurricanes 1.72 ..

Lumpy looks to be with Hurricanes ...

Hurricanes 16-0 after 2,Hurricanes 1.59 .. This is too low, so have taken Green. Lumpy really distorts some mkts.

Hurricanes 19-0 after 3, Hurricanes 1.68 .. Price better, but can't be with them, at this price.

Wkt - Payne 5 from 9, Hurricanes 1.88 21-1 after 3.3

Hurricanes 22-1 after 4, lumpy love has Hurricanes fav at 1.98 .. Not for me.

Hurricanes 25-1 after 5, Renegades 1.90 .. Am with Renegades

Wkt - Birt 5 from 7, 27-2 after 5.2 .. Renegades 1.63

Hurricanes 30-2 after 6, Renegades 1.64

Hurricanes 35-2 after 7, Renegades 1.63 .. Looks poor start, on a 170 pitch.

Hurricanes 45-2 after 8, Renegades 1.66 .. 6 from Ricky, then 4 past keeper.

Wkt - Ricky - 25 from 24, 46-3 after 8.2 .. Renegades 1.52 .. Poor choice of shot, reverse sweep a ball from Murali ... Not easy ..

Hurricanes 47-3 after 9, Renegades 1.47. .. Gone flat.

Wkt - Bailey - 2 from 3, 50-4 after 9.2 .. Renegades 1.31

Hurricanes 50-4 after 10, Rengades 1.33

Wkt - Styris - 1 from 2, 51-5 after 10.1 . Murali !! Renegades 1.20

Hurricanes 57-5 after 11, Renegades 1.24 .. Using some green, to lay Renegades ..

Hurricanes 61-5 after 12, Renegades 1.28

Wkt - 62-6 after 12.5 .. Renegades 1.20

Hurricanes 64-6 after 13, Renegades 1.20

Hurricanes 69-6 after 14, Renegades 1.18 .. Need to find 130 from somewhere.

Hurricanes 75-6 after 15, Renegades 1.22 .. Laying Renegades small.

Wkt - 75-7 after 15.5 .. Well bowled by Samuels .. 1.16

Hurricanes 78-7 after 16, Renegades 1.18

Hurricanes 81-7 after 17, Renegades 1.15

Wkt - Shah 14 from 28 .. Poor .. Renegades 1.09

Hurricanes 86-8 after 18, Renegades 1.09

Wkt 87-9 .. Renegades 1.07

Hurricanes 93-9 after 19, Renegades 1.08

Hurricanes finish on 102-9 .. renegades 1.09



Another low score. One reason why the chasing side, is winning so many (all) games this yr. - average 20 over score last hr, was 162. This yr, it's 125. Small sample, but..

Renegades 10-0 after 1, Renegades 1.06

Wkt - Harris 3 from 6, Renegades 1.13. 10-1 after 1.5

Renegades 10-1 after 2, Renegades 1.14

Renegades 20-1 after 3, Renegades 1.07

Renegades 27-1 after 4, Renegades 1.06

Wkt - Samuels 21 from 9, Renegades 1.06 .. 40-2 after 4.4

Renegades 44-2 after 5, Renegades 1.04

Renegades 50-2 after 6, Renegades 1.03

Renegades 65-2 after 7, Renegades 1.01



Game looks over, pitch not that bad, Hurricanes just batted poorly.



Wkt - Rorher 18 from 10 ... Is there a twist ? Still 1.01

Renegades 71-3 after 11, need 32 from 72, 1.01

Renegades 78-3 after 12, need 25 from 66, 1.00

Renegades 81-3 after 13, need 22 from 60, 1.00

Renegades 87-3 after 14, need 16 from 54, 1.00

Renegades 97-3 after 15, need 6 from 48, 1.00



Renegades win. ..



I had a good position, but, gave most of it back .. No harm done.

Posted with Blogsy

Big Bash 2012 - Brisbane Heat v Perth Scorchers - Brisbane

Some rain around, and v humid.

Probably get a shortened game.

Pre-toss, Heat 1.80 .... Scorchers win the toss, Heat drift to 1.90

without Voges (batter).

Run line .. rain affected 153

I think scorchers have been playing poorly, but, managed a win last time out, so, maybe can get a run together.

The weather map, doesn't look too bad .. CMM 1.34



Ball swinging early, but no rain yet. Start on time.

Wkt - Pomersbach 0 from 1, Scorchers 1.85

Lumpy likes Scorchers ... He's right.

Wkt - Hopes 5 from 4

Heat 5-2 after 1 over, Scorchers 1.57

Heat 15-2 after 2 overs, Scorchers 1.66 ... V fast outfield.

Heat 19-2 after 3 overs, Scorchers 1.77

Wkt - Burns 10 from 8, Scorchers 1.53

Heat 20-3 after 4, Scorchers 1.54

Heat 28-3 after 5, Scorchers 1.51

Heat 29-3 after 6, Scorchers 1.53

Heat 45-3 after 7, Scorchers 1.73. .. Chris Lynn, scoring 6.4.4

Heat 50-3 after 8, Scorchers 1.64

A few drops .. No fav, on CMM

Heat 68-3 after 9, Heat fav 1.98 ... CMM 1.8 No

Heat 81-3 after 10, Heat 1.63

Heat 97-3 after 11, Heat 1.34. CMM 1.80 No

Wkt - Lynn 51 from 28, great knock .. Heat 1.46 .. CMM 1.8 No

Heat 103-4 after 12, Heat 1.45

Heat 109-4 after 13, Heat 1.60 .. CMM 1.71 No .. Rain all around.

Off they go .. Lightning in background. Heat 1.67

If they don't come back,DL targets would be about :

51 from 5, 70 from 7, 88 from 9, 104 from 11.

Heavy band of rain going thru, but,better behind that. I think they will get back on, to finish.

8.00 local .. Radar looks much better, cut-off prob 9.30 .. CMM 1.43 Yes

Cut-off 9.12 local.

8.23 local, and umps out, but, v light rain, comes again. Radar is v positive, so, thou there's not that much time, still v hopeful. 1.64 Yes on CMM

8.33 local and light rain, which is not on radar. CMM no, went 1.6 fav, now Yes fav.

Some v jumpy moves, but CMM yes, now 1.40.. 8.45 local. Match odds, Heat 1.73

Looks like a 7 over chase .. Maybe 67 or so, even game, IMHO.



Sme v odd moves in this game .. For a protracted stop, the Heat was a freeish lay at 1.6x, chasing sides, who have 5 overs, always favoured.



Anyway, playt to resume at the cut-off, 9.12 .. Perth need 51.

Perth fav 1.74

Gibbs faces .. Looking past his prime.

Scorchers 5-0 after 1, Gibbs past it .. Thou Roach was quick.

Scorchers 16-0 after 2, Gibbs still past it.

Wkt - Gibbs caught on boundary , 9 from 9, in a 5 over chase isn't good enough.

Scorchers 22-1 after 3, Heat 1.30

Scorchers 43-1 after 4, scorchers 1.21 .. Need 8 from 6 .. Shows u now bad Gibbs was (Coulter-Nile hits 23 from 6 balls)

Scorchers win ..with 4 balls to spare .. odds go from 1.2 Heat, to 1.2 Scorchers, in 6 balls.

Won on both CMM and Match odds .. Happy days

On reflection, it also shows, how contrived D/L is .. chasing 51 in 5, with no regard to wkts, is just too easy a chase for the majority of sides .. the only question really, is how Heat stayed at 1.6x for so long, when it was known, a longly delay/DL chase was in the offing.

Posted with Blogsy

Stock portfolio - outlook

What to do with spare resources, is a theme not many have the need to contemplate.

It's fairly clear, if you are paying 10% paying interest on a mortgage, then, unless you have significant reasons to believe you can beat the market by at least 12%, you would be far better paying surplus monies into these debts, than going chasing other opportunities.

However, property .. And in particular, which location of the property, is not clear for many people, as this world gets smaller, so .. I do own a few shares.

My chief holding is Google, as I believe it has, as was once described, "the biggest moat, of any company". In my view, it has no competitors, and have been holding the shares, for over 7 yrs, from $400 up. It's now $700. For me, it's a long term hold.

I am very anti Gold, and have made significant losses/profits, over the last few yrs, as it traded upwards. At $1700 an ounce, I am a seller, but, understand, everyone has a diverse view.

I like smart phone providers, and picked up both Nokia and Research in Motion (blackberry), at distressed levels, a few months ago. They have made good returns, and have v important product launches in the new year. If they go well, the stocks will flourish, if not, in all likelihood, all they have left, are the patents.

Markets fluctuate, but, have a positive outlook for next year.

I will update my portfolio here, from time to time, but, everyone should do their own research .. And invest accordingly - consulting their financial advisor etc.

Posted with Blogsy

India v England - 4th test - Day 5 - Nagpur

Be v surprised if I bother to get up for this bore vest, but, hey, it's what sad do,s do, so, we will see.

Hard to see a result, unless England lose 2/3 wkts quickly, and gets the shits.

Not sure India deserve anything, and full credit should be given to Eng for over achieving in this series.

 

As expected, Match Drawn ..

Won on the game, but, it was hard on the body. Congrats to England.

Posted with Blogsy

India v England - 4th Test - Day 4 - Nagpur

Overnight, Mr Draw has found some love, and prices now, are

India 3.65

Eng. 6.4

Draw. 1.73



Suspect draw will go a tad shorter, but, am happy to stagger a few small lays in, at this level.



Negative / Slow approach by India .. Not taking singles, have forced Mr Draw into 1.55.

Curious approach by India .. In the first 20 NZ, 5 overs, for 4 runs .. Can't fathom this.

Well, seriously taking about going back to bed.

307-8 .. 30 mins in .. 10 runs added.

India 4.2

Eng 9.2

Draw 1.51



And 5 mins later, Draw 1.45



I go back to bed ....



Turgid ckt, and didn't miss much. At Tea, Eng 81-2, lead by 85.

India 5.8

England 14

Draw 1.30



Draw want to 1.18 or so, but, they lose Pietersen, and suddenly, a game result is possible.

Eng 94-3,

India 4.0

Eng 13

Draw 1.45



This game has been a draw trap .. Am led to believe, there has been no non-rain affected draw all year - this will be the first .. Which makes it expensive for habitual draw backers - thou, there have been many ran affected ones, in a V wet yr.

114-3 ... draw 1.30



Some loud appeals, and umpires put under extreme pressure. Not easy, without DRS .. And we know whose to blame for that.



Run rate all game, has been deplorable, 1.96 per over, bores the crap out of everyone.



Eng finish on 161-3 ... I wasn't watching.

Posted with Blogsy

Momentum One Day Cup Final - Reserve Day - Wanderers

Take 2, and the weather forecast from mid- day, looks decidedly dodgy. They start early at 10 am local, but, thik the rain will hit, as the 2nd team get to bat.

Lions bat 1st, and manage 234.

Levi and Puttick get Cobras off to a flying start, but. Tahir .. Remember him, gets 2 quickl wkts, before the wind gets up, it goes cold, and #megarain arrives, 11 overs in.

20 overs needed for a game .. Not sure, they will get them.

 

3.15 local ... Banging down. Need to get back by 5.45 for 20 over game.

 

Power tripped ... Again

 

Gloomy overhead.

 

Serious lakes on outfield, which will take 90 mins to clear, IMHO.

This will be close.

 

3.30 local.

 

 

Soppers out .. Will be a while .. Lots fell :

 

3.50 local .. Some progress .. Some rain in distance ..

 

4.00 local ... PA bashing out ear splitting music, but, as ever, they say fuck-all to the paying public. They are a fucking disgrace.

 

4.25 local .. Grd looks ok, but still v wet. Umps doing lots of pointing, which is not a good sign. Rain still on way .. Think this has problems ... #doomed

20 over target is 134 .. Will need 65 from 54, if they get back on.

 

 

Posted with Blogsy