Brexit - Decent Arb

Since the tragic death of Jo Cox, sterling has had a fantastic run, gaining 600 basis points, from 1.40, to 1.46.

Some forecasts from the city, worked from options, seems to indicate an implied probability of Britain staying in Europe, of about 1.2x.

Current price on Betfair, is 1.40. Looks too big, whichever way u gonna vote.

//

1 pm, Next day, Remain on Betfair 1.28, after pound went higher.

Ching, ching !!!

Quality

We spend most of our lives, running the treadmill of life.

At times, it seems a long, uphill, unequal struggle .. and I have many sympathies for people who have an unfair start (by the sheer randomness, of being born in the wrong country).

This has started out quite miserable, which, wasnt my intention .. but maybe highlights, just how happy u should be, when you happen to come across sheeer quality, whether it be in the arts or anything.

World class, is just that .. World class, and I have often watched superstars in different fields, than I am used to, and admired their talents.

Chris Gayle, is a superstar of cricket - but got involved in a sexism row, when interviewed by a female reporter last yr. I heard a podcast recently, where he defended himself .. I thought correctly (I thought the whole issue was well over-blown - if that makes me sexist, I can live with that) .. and defended himself/his brand/image, which may have lost value, as a result.

I thought no more about it, but, last night at Taunton, he was due to play, but the game was rained out. Waiting for the game to be called off, I spoke to someone, who was one of 500 people who had attended a charity cricket game, held at the weekend, which Gayle attended.

Chris mingled with the crowd, and was genuinely approachable. He wasnt supposed to play, but, pads were found, and played the last 4 overs (Got 60 for fun), but the nice thing was, when someone caught one of his sixes in the crown, he got down on his knees, and did the "I am not worthy, rasing arms thingy" .. which was genuinely funny.

http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-06-13/chris-gayle-hits-half-century-for-charity/

The bowling was rank, but, it was probably supposed to be ..

Driving all over the country

In Poker, 'rounders', or professional poker players, consider the daily grind to be pretty tortuous, with late starts, sitting at the table, trying to beat the rake/boredom/mental issues, of making a living at the game.

I appreciate its not easy .. But, in the last few days, have probably logged 12-14 hrs each day, of driving/watching cricket, and it's tough.

With every day, stock markets become more efficient, and, it's probably also true of sports betting markets. 

So, u need a fresh brain, and, that's not always easy to achieve, if u have been stuck in traffic/had a delayed connection. The absolute worst, would be getting there, and seeing the game .. A one-way train .. Or worse, called off.

My lifetime worst for this .. Was an hr drive, from Malaysia to Singapore airport, a 4 hr flight to Hong Kong, a 1 hr commute to the race track .. To find, racing was at a different venue, 2 hrs away .. Which I couldn't get to.

Not a good day.

Startup

Ok, so, it's been a while.

There are many reasons why. Sure, I've been busy, but, also, a little disappointed, in lots of things, and writing about them, just makes me uncomfortable.

So, I waited for a happier subject.

I spend a lot of time, driving or commuting .. And aiding in this, huge amount of dead time, I listen to books, or podcasts.

Startup, is a podcast, I heard mentioned by a poker interviewee, and went to look.

It's simply stunning .. Entertaining, evocative, relevant.

Take a look .. You won't be sorry .. And the whole archive, from April 2014, is available.

Start with epsisode 1, I am on episode 8, and all are fantastic.