Monday, 29 December 2014

Test - S.Africa v W.Indies - Port Elizabeth - Boxing Day

Waiting .. for lotsa stuff, so, gonna fill the void, with some thghts/ramblings.

To set the scene, this is the 2nd test .. test 1 at Centurion, ended in 3.3 days, with West Indies collapsing(with, it might be said, poor preparation/board troubles), like the proverbial cheap suit.

This test, saw S.Africa start a v warm 1.26 fav, and batting first,the money kept coming.

This was derailed a bit, when it rained buckets, on Day 2 and only 6 overs were played.

This rain, has proved v hard to predict - many weather websites have been wrong - some, v v wrong, and the radars have also been useless.

S.African ex-captains have tweeted no play, for hours, only to see play an hr later (tweets interestingly get withdrawn - to save face), and radio/tv commentators, promise good weather, when it doesn't come.

Blame is hard to place - Port Elizabeth is known as the Windy City - and this very wind, makes it almost impossible to forecast, when/if rain will hit, and for how long.

Often, its been a v fine drizzle, .. thou on Day 2 - it was 3 hrs of solid stuff, and the ground must be congratulated for absorbing so much .. we all know of grounds, which wouldn't have coped.

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble.

On Day 4 .. West Indies fell from 230-2, to 275-9, in 14 overs .. and are now 142 runs behind in the 1st inngs, with 1 stick left.

In theory, 98 overs can be played on the last day .. but, current forecasts are indicating rain will maybe only allow 40-75 overs.

Each day, I have driven to the ground - my commute is 80 miles, and find the drive v instructive, weather wise.

I have traded the game pretty well .. I always thought, the rain would bring an early SA declaration,
and won shed loads on various runs mkts - when they declared on 417, when 525 was traded odds-on.

If they had declared under 400, I would have won, a colossal sum.

I have a decent match odds book, which is now weighted towards the draw. This bias is just a factor of time/overs to be bowled .. I like Amla as an aggressive declaration setter, and have v little faith in West Indies batting out 50 overs.

I am posting a snapshot, of one of my books, (I may have others, similar or not), to just add validation .. to me, its pointless blogs saying they won/lost etc, without back-up.

If the overnight rain/early rain is less than on previous days, I will manoevre. In my mind, with 75 overs play, S.Africa will win v easily.

I am v aware, there is a lack of media focus/verification and any morsel of information, is heavily traded. Day 5, could be a very volatile day.I will probably tweet, v infrequently .. and with pictures, which people can interprete for themselves.

If u get misled, by feed, I am genuinely sorry .. but, cannot hold your hands.

(when I posted this on my server, Draw was 1.20 .. 5 hrs later .. 1.12)

Well, what a mess I made if this.

Car drive to ground, was in v good weather, and looking at everything, decided SA were a fair bet at 7.0.

In hindsight, just didn't know, the amount of rain that had fallen during the early hrs, and it appears the ground is saturated.

Nice enough at the ground, with no rain/drizzle for 2 hrs, but, still waiting on pitch inspections, and it's noon.

Very slim chance of a result now, and have turned £9k green, into a small red.

Not my finest hr - but, did little wrong.

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