In a previous life, I was a racecourse bookie, and in some ways it was fun, others, a living hell.
Mainly due to taxation complications, of professional bookies, as opposed to professional gamblers, I moved away from the racecourse, but, 10 yrs on, Betfair has made life v hard for pro gamblers, and the racecourse is an option.
I have spent the last few weeks, looking at horse-racing in the UK.
There are about 60 horse race-courses in the UK, spread up and down the country. On any given day, there is probably an average of 3-4 meetings.
Each racecourse, have different numbers of fixtures. The all-weather tracks, like Southwell, Lingfield and Wolverhampton, have between 80-100, per year. Some have as few as 20, with an average of .. Say 25.
Raceourse bookmakers, now have to buy a 40 yr licence, to bet at each racecourse. These licences, are bought and sold, thru an auction process, for licenced bookmakers. Each licence, or pitch, as they are commonly known, is valued based on its seniority.
Seniority, is just that. Number 1 pitch, has first pick, where he wants to operate from, Number 60, has just that. So, at an average course, Number 1 pitch probably costs the bookie, £50k, Number 60, £500.
The difference in value, is just associated to what money, the bookie can hope to take, off the public.
Each bookie, will pay, to work on each day, 6 times the Tattersalls entry money .. so, if Joe Public pays, £21 to enter, the bookie will pay £126 to work.This payment, is the same, for Number 1, and Number 60.
They also, now pay a yearly marketing fee, of about 8 times, admission.
If we look at an average racecourse, where they race, 30 times a yr.
If you have number 1 pick, the cost of working on a day, is :
£50k for the licence, spread over 40 years, divided by 30 meetings .. so 50000/1200 = £400
The days licence - £121, plus marketing fee .. £8
You need .. 2 staff .. probably £100 each
The kit to operate as a bookie, costs .. £15k, so, lets take £50 a day for that.
Petrol etc .. another £50.
All-in, if you bet in a prime spot, the costs are £800. In a poor spot, £350.
Bookmaker income, is based on margin. In a good spot, you would hope to take £1000 a race, probably more, at 10%-15% margin. so 7 races, on average, you would hope to win £1100, less expenses of £800, u get £300 per day .. thou, you have a huge capital investment, in racecourse licenses, which will fluctuate in value, over the years.
A poor pitch, will take, maybe £400 per race .. at worse margin, so, its v v hard .. thou, u probably have less workmen, as its less busy.Poor pitches, only really have a value, on realy good days (summer usually), when a lot of people attend .. a racecourse might get 2000 people attending, a run-of-the-mill meetng, but, its summer days, might get 10000. On these days, all bookies will make money, off-setting, the v many poor days, where it rains, and few people attend.
Its a tough game, made harder by the effect of mobile betting, as people can now bet on their cell-phones, via apps. As a rule, people do like to bet in cash, but, in hospitality areas, the temptation not to move, to place a bet, is quite big.
Anyway, having seen quite a few raceourses over the last 3 weeks, its obviously an industry, going thru a lot of change, and is greatly affected by the strength of the local economy. South of the UK, is still fairly strong, as is the north, but the midlands, is really suffering .. (from industry moving away/closed).
IMHO, there are still too many racecourses in the UK, and the prime land, will no doubt, be lost to housing development. I would think, 40-50 racecourses would be sufficient - and more viable, for everyone.
The sheer cost, of becoming a bookie, makes fresh blood almost impossible. This is worrying, from the long term aspect, but, some bookmaking families will no doubt train off-spring. I would hate to be a new guy, starting out, with a bank, of .. say £30k. It would be v hard. With £200k to play with, you would have a chance, but .. banks, wont lend u anything, based on these licences, so, basically, getting the capital .. will prove beyond, most.
Working as a racecourse bookie, you see a lot of things, some funny, some not so.
In previous years, the off- course firms used to hedge a lot of their off- course liabilities, which may have accumulated at their betting shops, in the High Street. This hedging, would reduce the Starting Price, at which most off-course bets are settled, and everyone was happy. These days, the SP mechanism has become outdated, as its doesn't reflect betting exchanges, and less hedging takes place.
This is natural evolution, but, yet another source of income, for a bookie, that has dried up. Experienced bookmakers, with capital, will still win .. But, it's no fun. Working, when its pouring with rain, and your only cover, is an umbrella.
Sunday, 28 April 2013
Wednesday, 24 April 2013
More ramblings
Got up fairly early, to play some golf.
Noticed, (one of many Betfair RNS announcements), recently :
This one, is a directorate change :
http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/betfair/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=270&newsid=336710
Part of the announcement, says :
Commenting on his own appointment, Peter Jackson said: "Betfair is a unique brand at one of the most exciting stages in its history. I am looking forward to contributing to its continued development."
Excuse me, but, exciting stages in its history ?? .. which company, can be said to be exciting, when its going thru take-over issues, becos its management are percieved, to be doing the wrong things .. hence the take-over ?
Challenging would have been a better adjective, but, I wish him well.
Finally got to the golf course, and .. maybe I am getting morbid with old age, but, faced this, near the 1st Tee :
I am not sure I have ever seen a golf memorial .. on the course before, and didnt find anyone who knew the history .. but, it was thought provoking.
I didnt play that great, but, wouldnt blame the above ..
Over the course of the season, I expect to eat a lot of fast-food, at various prices.
Noticed, (one of many Betfair RNS announcements), recently :
This one, is a directorate change :
http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/betfair/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=270&newsid=336710
Part of the announcement, says :
Commenting on his own appointment, Peter Jackson said: "Betfair is a unique brand at one of the most exciting stages in its history. I am looking forward to contributing to its continued development."
Excuse me, but, exciting stages in its history ?? .. which company, can be said to be exciting, when its going thru take-over issues, becos its management are percieved, to be doing the wrong things .. hence the take-over ?
Challenging would have been a better adjective, but, I wish him well.
Finally got to the golf course, and .. maybe I am getting morbid with old age, but, faced this, near the 1st Tee :
I am not sure I have ever seen a golf memorial .. on the course before, and didnt find anyone who knew the history .. but, it was thought provoking.
I didnt play that great, but, wouldnt blame the above ..
Over the course of the season, I expect to eat a lot of fast-food, at various prices.
Price, varies enormously ..
Top of the range, will be the £9.20 burger at Ascot .. no, its not worth it.
Value winner, so far, is the £1 hot-dog (2 sausages), offered at a reduced price, (down from £3.20), after race 6, on a 7 race card, in the silver ring, at Stratford racecourse.
Monday, 22 April 2013
Betfair Stuff ,,
BF apparently tuned down a bid, of £8.80 a share, valuing it at £900m .. (it listed at £13)
Maybe, ongoing discussions will increase price.
This is a post, from the Betfair forum, re Betfair revenues : (frog2)
The Premium Charge is a legacy of Betfair's former management team and hopefully the new CEO has an open mind to it.
Following the 1st charge UK pre-play racing volume, which has been growing nicely, started to fall. This is a key market in terms of real commission. Even now racing makes up over 40% of exchange revenues.
Following the 2nd premium charge both revenues and amounts matched on everything bar in play sports (where millions are traded for very little revenue) have gone from growing year on year to flat lining. At the same time group revenue growth has stopped. This is after growth in the sportsbook and mobile channels.
Its not difficult to see why this is happening. Betfair has a monopoly in some markets. Where people have to use them e.g. to trade on a test match cricket or a tennis match inplay they over no other option. They either play here or stop totally. Where people can go elsewhere e.g. pre-race horses or football they will go elsewhere. The charge is simply too high.
The problem is where Betfair has a monopoly it is making a low margin (trading) and where it does not (when people want an actual bet) BF makes a higher margin. Betfair is losing its higher margin business.
An outright punter winning just over 2.5% on stakes will pay the 40% premium charge if he stakes enough. This is a very marginal system yet he still falls into the threshold.
Even if Betfair acted now they have lost so much good will. I used to do 100% of my betting on here. I have never even paid the charge but slowly I am moving my betting elsewhere. I need to keep my generate commission rate high so I avoid high margin bets on here. I use it for lower margin bets and trading that I could not do elsewhere.
I hope Betfair see sense. In 2008 the exchange was not broken. It was still growing both in revenues and amounts matched across all markets. They refused to settle for this growth and are now paying the price and must scrap the charge before its too late and the decline becomes terminal. Otherwise they will just be left with a second rate sportsbook and casino.
average daily matched all horseracing and non inplay sports year to date
Apr-07 £33,345,799
Apr-08 £45,879,142
Apr-09 £51,573,807 (1st PC 11/08)
Apr-10 £55,740,339
Apr-11 £61,204,673
Apr-12 £60,555,818 (2nd PC 06/11)
Oct-12 £61,014,819*
average daily group revenue year to date
Apr-03 £87,671
Apr-04 £186,301
Apr-05 £293,151
Apr-06 £400,000
Apr-07 £509,589
Apr-08 £668,493
Apr-09 £824,658 (1st PC 11/08)
Apr-10 £934,247
Apr-11 £1,076,712
Apr-12 £1,065,753 (2nd PC 06/11)
Oct-12 £1,090,217*
*averages half year
////////////////////////////
Revenue is basically flat, which, can easily be associated with a number of factors, including recession/PC/loss of markets in restricted counties.
Betfair is now, simply, a mid-tier betting company, drifting .. maybe they are happy.
Maybe, ongoing discussions will increase price.
This is a post, from the Betfair forum, re Betfair revenues : (frog2)
The Premium Charge is a legacy of Betfair's former management team and hopefully the new CEO has an open mind to it.
Following the 1st charge UK pre-play racing volume, which has been growing nicely, started to fall. This is a key market in terms of real commission. Even now racing makes up over 40% of exchange revenues.
Following the 2nd premium charge both revenues and amounts matched on everything bar in play sports (where millions are traded for very little revenue) have gone from growing year on year to flat lining. At the same time group revenue growth has stopped. This is after growth in the sportsbook and mobile channels.
Its not difficult to see why this is happening. Betfair has a monopoly in some markets. Where people have to use them e.g. to trade on a test match cricket or a tennis match inplay they over no other option. They either play here or stop totally. Where people can go elsewhere e.g. pre-race horses or football they will go elsewhere. The charge is simply too high.
The problem is where Betfair has a monopoly it is making a low margin (trading) and where it does not (when people want an actual bet) BF makes a higher margin. Betfair is losing its higher margin business.
An outright punter winning just over 2.5% on stakes will pay the 40% premium charge if he stakes enough. This is a very marginal system yet he still falls into the threshold.
Even if Betfair acted now they have lost so much good will. I used to do 100% of my betting on here. I have never even paid the charge but slowly I am moving my betting elsewhere. I need to keep my generate commission rate high so I avoid high margin bets on here. I use it for lower margin bets and trading that I could not do elsewhere.
I hope Betfair see sense. In 2008 the exchange was not broken. It was still growing both in revenues and amounts matched across all markets. They refused to settle for this growth and are now paying the price and must scrap the charge before its too late and the decline becomes terminal. Otherwise they will just be left with a second rate sportsbook and casino.
average daily matched all horseracing and non inplay sports year to date
Apr-07 £33,345,799
Apr-08 £45,879,142
Apr-09 £51,573,807 (1st PC 11/08)
Apr-10 £55,740,339
Apr-11 £61,204,673
Apr-12 £60,555,818 (2nd PC 06/11)
Oct-12 £61,014,819*
average daily group revenue year to date
Apr-03 £87,671
Apr-04 £186,301
Apr-05 £293,151
Apr-06 £400,000
Apr-07 £509,589
Apr-08 £668,493
Apr-09 £824,658 (1st PC 11/08)
Apr-10 £934,247
Apr-11 £1,076,712
Apr-12 £1,065,753 (2nd PC 06/11)
Oct-12 £1,090,217*
*averages half year
////////////////////////////
Revenue is basically flat, which, can easily be associated with a number of factors, including recession/PC/loss of markets in restricted counties.
Betfair is now, simply, a mid-tier betting company, drifting .. maybe they are happy.
Saturday, 20 April 2013
Betfair puzzles ..
The overall quality of blog posts, re gambling, has been steadily improving, and 2 of real quality, deserve special mention :
Mark Davies .. former Media Man at Betfair .. at a time, when 'getting the message out/across', was not easy, has always had his finger on the pulse, and his 2 articles re the CVC bid, need referencing :
http://www.markxdavies.com/2013/04/20/thoughts-on-the-betfair-bid/
http://www.markxdavies.com/2013/04/20/fantasy-betfair/
This is a 2 part summary, of lots of things, and anyone with a related interest in exchange gambling, should read them.
This other item, writes about the industry, from a compilers perspective :
http://gemsandrhinestones.com/2013/04/10/dispelling-some-myths/
Also, well worth a read.
Mark Davies .. former Media Man at Betfair .. at a time, when 'getting the message out/across', was not easy, has always had his finger on the pulse, and his 2 articles re the CVC bid, need referencing :
http://www.markxdavies.com/2013/04/20/thoughts-on-the-betfair-bid/
http://www.markxdavies.com/2013/04/20/fantasy-betfair/
This is a 2 part summary, of lots of things, and anyone with a related interest in exchange gambling, should read them.
This other item, writes about the industry, from a compilers perspective :
http://gemsandrhinestones.com/2013/04/10/dispelling-some-myths/
Also, well worth a read.
Thursday, 18 April 2013
Getting the Value
Decided to go to Cheltenham races for the day .. despite the rain and cold.
Its been miserable in England . and really windy. Played The Belfry golf course yesterday, and, the intense cold and gusts of wind, made the course almost unplayable for the good golfers, let alone hackers like me .. lost about 6 balls, which was about right.
Anyway, got to Cheltenham, and had a right result, getting in ...
Its normally £20 for a mid-week meeting, and the usual touts are hanging around. I wont use them, unless absolutely desperate .. preferring to pay the course, full price, than saving .. say £5.
Anyway, as I make my way to the kiosk, I can see a guy, looking for someone he can give a spare ticket to .. so, I help him out !!!
I get in ok .. and ask him, if he has any tips .. he says, no .. so, I tell him to back the fav in the 2000 guineas trial, at Newmarket .. Toronado - at 4.05, which is about 1.80 .. and, I know will win.
I v rarely tip horses, or anything, as I hate the grief when they lose (as, they can do) .. but, this was a special case.
It duly hacked up, and is a very serious horse/contender, for everything.
I enjoyed the racing at Cheltenham, but was v sorry to see champion jockey, Tony Mccoy, have quite a serious injury, from a fall. Hes a model professional, who I hold in the highest regard, and wonder how many more years, he will put his body, thru everything, a steeple-chase jockey, lives with.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/22208974
It will be a sad day, when he retires, but, overall, hes been a lot luckier than most, with injuries.
Its been miserable in England . and really windy. Played The Belfry golf course yesterday, and, the intense cold and gusts of wind, made the course almost unplayable for the good golfers, let alone hackers like me .. lost about 6 balls, which was about right.
Anyway, got to Cheltenham, and had a right result, getting in ...
Its normally £20 for a mid-week meeting, and the usual touts are hanging around. I wont use them, unless absolutely desperate .. preferring to pay the course, full price, than saving .. say £5.
Anyway, as I make my way to the kiosk, I can see a guy, looking for someone he can give a spare ticket to .. so, I help him out !!!
I get in ok .. and ask him, if he has any tips .. he says, no .. so, I tell him to back the fav in the 2000 guineas trial, at Newmarket .. Toronado - at 4.05, which is about 1.80 .. and, I know will win.
I v rarely tip horses, or anything, as I hate the grief when they lose (as, they can do) .. but, this was a special case.
It duly hacked up, and is a very serious horse/contender, for everything.
I enjoyed the racing at Cheltenham, but was v sorry to see champion jockey, Tony Mccoy, have quite a serious injury, from a fall. Hes a model professional, who I hold in the highest regard, and wonder how many more years, he will put his body, thru everything, a steeple-chase jockey, lives with.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/22208974
It will be a sad day, when he retires, but, overall, hes been a lot luckier than most, with injuries.
Wednesday, 17 April 2013
Puzzles ..
I like doing puzzles, and have run the full gamut of different types :
From the very basic, 1983 Ascii type game, of Enchanter ..
Which, as u can see, is a very old game .. but was fun ..
To : 7th Guest , which, in its day, was the dogs ..
The spooky staircase, in the puzzle laden house.
To, Apple IOS games, like The Room :
These puzzles have an ending.
The puzzle, that is Betfair, never seems to :
Its a long story, but, founders/shareholders/users/employees .. all have different paths to follow, and many, just seem dead-ends, like many of the puzzles, above.
The latest chapters, have seen rumours of Ladbrokes making a bid (why??), and a private investment vehicle - CVC - apparently thinking about making a bid, to turn Betfair private :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2013/apr/15/cvc-unlikely-offer-betfair-enough
This makes no sense to me .. but, many things in the financial world, are far more wacky .. however, I do think, this is a puzzle, that will run and run ..
From the very basic, 1983 Ascii type game, of Enchanter ..
Which, as u can see, is a very old game .. but was fun ..
To : 7th Guest , which, in its day, was the dogs ..
The spooky staircase, in the puzzle laden house.
To, Apple IOS games, like The Room :
These puzzles have an ending.
The puzzle, that is Betfair, never seems to :
Its a long story, but, founders/shareholders/users/employees .. all have different paths to follow, and many, just seem dead-ends, like many of the puzzles, above.
The latest chapters, have seen rumours of Ladbrokes making a bid (why??), and a private investment vehicle - CVC - apparently thinking about making a bid, to turn Betfair private :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2013/apr/15/cvc-unlikely-offer-betfair-enough
This makes no sense to me .. but, many things in the financial world, are far more wacky .. however, I do think, this is a puzzle, that will run and run ..
Monday, 15 April 2013
Ding Dong, the Witch is dead.
Back in December, I wrote :
http://megarainuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/stock-portfolio-outlook.html
That gold was a sell at $1700 ..
I have been beaten up, by Golds rise, over the last 2 yrs, and .. the last qtr, has been pay-back.
Its now . $1350, and dropping fast.
The gold mines are in trouble, and expect more strikes/closures in many gold producing areas in Africa.
Gold has much further to fall, IMHO, but, I know nothing.
Equities have had a fantastic run .. its v possible, a correction, is coming.
Do your own reasearch, and consult your financial advisor.
http://megarainuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/stock-portfolio-outlook.html
That gold was a sell at $1700 ..
I have been beaten up, by Golds rise, over the last 2 yrs, and .. the last qtr, has been pay-back.
Its now . $1350, and dropping fast.
The gold mines are in trouble, and expect more strikes/closures in many gold producing areas in Africa.
Gold has much further to fall, IMHO, but, I know nothing.
Equities have had a fantastic run .. its v possible, a correction, is coming.
Do your own reasearch, and consult your financial advisor.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)





