Too much time on your hands ? - Get a kid

I love my kids, yet, as any parent will know, they can be v demanding ...

Number 1 son, has a history ...

This story, is 7 years old now :

Tap Tap Tap, clunk,clunk

For the first night in ages, I can get a decent nights sleep, and am happily
dreaming about a Lucky 15, with 2 legs up, when, I am disturbed from this
happy place, by this irritating sound :

Tap Tap Tap, .. clunk clunk

The dogs are not bothered, so, its obviously nothing major, but WTF is it ?

It goes on for 5 mins, and now, its Really irritiating me, so, I get up.

In the kitchen, I find my 6 yr old, with a can of Just Juice (passion fruit and Mango), with no ring-pull, trying to open it with a hammer.

A couple of immediate questions come to mind here ...

Whats wrong with Fucking Tap water ?? , let alone the 20 bottles of assorted other juices, no, he has to have this one.

Anyway, hero walks over, gets a medium sized bread knife, and in one
sharp thrust, pierce the can.

A soda fountain, immediately bursts forth, and I am covered in this sticky,
goey stuff. The nipper is clever enuf, to be out of range.

Thanks Dad, takes it from my hand, and wanders back to Bed.

I go shower ..

Kids ... , remind me again, why we have them.

....

So,  yrs on, and the Toys have got bigger ..

The latest/greatest game, is Grand Theft Auto 5 - which cost $150m to make, and is now, just, available for purchase.

The shops have the game, BUT,if u download it from the internet, it will have bits and pieces that u can play on the new Playstation platform .. (to eat up more bandwidth), so, Number 1 son, must have this one.

Cue credit card.

Game is 18GB big .. thats .. BIG, REALLY, REALLY, BIG .. and in a small country, where data costs a lot, and internet speeds are relatively slow, it has currently taken 26 hours, and is 93% thru.

My internet has been reduced to a trickle .. as, he obviously gets priority ..

We are here to serve ..

Mr Grumpy

Ok, go get a coffee .. this is a long story  ..  I will wait for u.

Was busy trading Day 2 at Cheltenham, but, decided to miss the last race, in favour of going to my local casino's regular  Wednesday poker tournament.

Got there, just in time for the 7.30pm registration, and noticed that of the 60 or so players, a few superstars were missing .. so, felt it was a good omen.

Feel my game is pretty sharp right now, but, I suppose all players do .. and blame variance on bad runs.

Anyway, get a v tough table draw .. 6 of the 9 are decent, with 2 unknowns.

8000 chip stacks, initial blinds 25/50 .. one re-buy, in first 40 mins .. $125 to enter.


Almost immediately, I get involved with :

6 ♦ 7 ♦

on the button.

2 away from me raises, 3x, and I call.

Flop comes :

8♦ 5♦ 6♥

Thats a pretty good flop for me .. no shit sherlock .. and it ends up, all going in the middle, as he has

6 ♣ 5♥

I hit, the 4 ♦ on the turn, and double up.


A few hands later, I am playing a tough pro, who mainly plays cash, and likes to gamble with me ..

I have 9 ♣ J ♣ and call his raise, of 4x.


Flop comes :

J ♦ J ♥ 10 ♠

As its the sort of board, he knows I can have/or will bluff at, I bet 65% of the pot, he shoves, and I call.

He has : A ♦ A ♠   .. thats ok, am monster fav, but, he catches A ♣ on the turn .. FUCK !! and cripples me, down to below avg stack.

Mentally, thats tough. Especially, when its a guy, who has beaten you in pots, probably 8 of 9 times, in the last 3 mths, when I am normally at least 60/40 fav.

Anyway, didnt go on tilt ..


I nick a few blinds here and there, and re-build my stack, with small pots, when I get involved, with the same pro, with :

J ♦ 10 ♦

Blinds are now 100/200, and I have 6000 chips. I am in late position, so, raise to 700, he calls.

Flop is Q ♣ 8♣ 5♦

I check, he checks.

Turn is 9 ♣ .. giving me the nut straight, but, am losing to a flush. He shoves.

Thats not an easy call .. but, finally make it, and he has :

K ♠ K ♦

and win the pot/knock him out.


This is all fine, but, the dynamic of the table then changes, as 4 new people come to the table, who are all 'buddies'. They dont soft play each other, so, its ok - but, they do talk during hands.

The card room management is v poor .. and tonite, it was especially poor, as the usual guy was off.

Almost right away, 2 of the buddies got involved in a hand, and they basically talk to each other, during the hand .. which is sometimes fun, but, can create friction, when one guy, talks his 'buddy' off a hand.

Anyway, I am staying out of it, but, finally cant resist, and target - who I thought was the weaker of the 4.

I have 3 ♠ 5 ♠ .. not great, but call his raise.

Flop is 6 ♦ 7♦ 10 ♠ .. so have quite well concealed .. crap .. really.

We both check, turn is 5 ♥, so I bet ..he calls, after a deep think.

I take this deep think as weakness, and after a blank hits the river, shove all in .. I had him covered.

At this point, hes thinking, (no one is talking), but, after a good while, he calls. I throw my cards in the muck, and he says to the dealer, he wants to see them.

I say, he cant .. I have mucked, and he says he has paid to see.

Now, I understand his point .. a bit, as I could be chip dumping, but in most places, if u just chuck your cards in .. they stay concealed.

He was quite a big guy, and grabs the cards, turning them over.

I dont like this, and call for the card room manager, who is useless, and doesnt know if the cards should be exposed or not .. I just leave it, .. hes won the hand, and 2 or 3 hands later, the guy comes over, and shakes my hand, saying 'No hard feelings' .. which I suppose, is fair enough.

So, its already been a 'tough' nite, and have a headache.

20 mins later, I have about 25k in chips, and the blinds are 300/600.

One of the 'merry/drunk' brothers is small blind, 'muscles' is big blind.

I have A ♦ K ♣ in late position.

I raise to 3000. The 'merry' brother calls, puts his 3000 chips in the middle, at which point, 'muscles; says, 'All-in'. Brother, says, 'Oh Shit', grabs his 3000 chips back, and puts his cards, face down, in the middle of the table ..  what the fuck !!

His brother, rightly says, u cant do that, and the small blind brother, grabs his cards back.

After some debate, he puts the 3000 in, and I decide to call the extra 7000 - all-in, from 'muscles'.

Back to the 'merry' brother .. and hes talking aloud, what to do. His brother says, 'U should call' - and, even thou hes not involved in the hand, I say nothing. After a good while, he puts the 7000 in, and now, both me and 'muscles' are not happy.

Before it goes any further, I ask for a ruling, as to whether, he should be allowed to retrieve his cards etc, from the middle of the table .. Card management .. say, its ok, he can do what he wants !! but, eventually, decides to fold.

'muscles' has Q ♦ Q ♠ .. about what I expected, but I hit my K, and win the pot, knocking him out.


So, its a fun table .. and my head is throbbing ..

I get moved .. YES !!, to a weak table, and a novice gives me 27k in chips, when he shoves with

K ♦ K ♠

on a board of

A ♣ 7 ♠ 8♦   ..   I have A ♥ K♥, so its an easy call, and as I say, he just gave me the chips.


There are now 11 players left, I lose some chips .. but have 55k, of the 475k in play.

We get down to 10, and a final table is called.

We move to the table, draw for seats, and someones asks for 5 mins break .. even thou, we had a break, 20 mins earlier. Everyone says ok .. and I wander off, to get a coffee.

This takes longer than it should, and am back, after maybe 7 mins .. and they have started, with me losing a small/big blind, of a total of 3000 chips.

I say .. whats going on ? No one tried to call me etc .. but these are poker players, .. its mid-nite, and even thou, I have often waited for players, and wont start a final table, till everyone is present, they basically say, 'tough shit'.

I declare to the table .. Fine .. 'No Deals' .. we will play till 4 in the morning, and slow play my hands, for the next hour - taking a minute to even look at my cards.

This naturally, amuses some/pisses off others, but, they can do nothing, and the card manager has little idea, when/if he can call a clock ..

Anyway, the tourny paid down to 7 players, and 'No deals' no one talks to me.

2 get knocked out, so .. the virtual bubble is created, when, the same guy, who asked for a deal, 2 weeks earlier, and I have said no to, re-raises my 9000 chip raise - all-in.

I have 40k chips .. to call, was 27k more .. and I have A ♦ J ♠.

Thats probably not winning, normally he plays solid, but, even thou I knew, I was probably behind, I call.

He has A ♣ K ♠ .. so, am dominated, in a v poor spot, and everyone is licking their lips.

The flop comes :

J ♦ J ♥ 10 ♦  .. Yeah baby !!, and he goes ballistic. Which is fair enough. He doesnt find the Q for a straight, so he goes out the door, with some loud expletives, more about how bad he runs, than my shit play.

I am now, 2nd in chips, there are 6 left, and I am a good thing to win.

I rob the table blind .. still didnt see a premium pair .. just had the 3  x A K all night, and we get down to 3, at which point, I suggest a deal, and we each get $1100 each.

This story, isnt over yet.



Last week, when I won, the guy in 5th place, was stopped by Police, at the first traffic light outside, and basically had to give him his money.

I went to my car, hid $1000, and left $100 in my pocket.

At the same traffic light, the cops are there again, and I get pulled over. The talk starts, I say, I have $100, can I give u $40, and he says, sure.

Not happy about the robbery .. but, realistically, will let it slide.

ODI - S.Africa v N.Zealand - Paarl

Watched some of the Aus Open Tennis, so, only got 3 hrs sleep. Have to leave for the airport at 5.30am ... Problems .. Car tire flat ... Will be touch and go if I make the flight, ... Expecting drab game, so, an excuse to go back to bed, wouldn't go amiss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Made the flight .. But got lost going to ground .. Few signs ... iPad maps - what a piece of crap that is, can't locate Boland Park.

 

 

 

Clear day expected .. Hopefully not too hot, as it can be really baking in this part of the world.

S.Africa resort to there one day side, with N.Zealand also looking a slightly stronger outfit.

Hard to see it being a contest thou, and S.Africa solid favourites a 1.22

 

 

 

 

 

 


Well, that was how it normally goes .. But, let me tell you a story.

 

I am a fond believer in a strong work ethic, which, is sometimes at odds with the life of a trader ... and that chance favours the prepared.

 

In a different life, I used to trade horses .. Every day, I would get into the motor, and travel 1-2 hrs, just to ern a crust. This was a long time ago, before markets were as efficient as they are today, but, I could usually manage to win, lets say 20x a day, where x is undisclosed.

One day, in a week of bad weather, I had a 3 hr journey, to get to a racetrack. The 1st race was at 12.30, so, it meant leaving, pretty early.

I got up, turned on the radio, and wasn't surprised to discover, their was a track inspection, scheduled for 9.00. This wasn't much good to me, as it's. long jounrney, so, decided to start off, and try and pull over, after an hr.

I did this, only to hear, the 1st inspection was unclear, and a new one was schedule for 10.30. This was a problem. Do I decide to drive on, and probaly waste the petrol / time / effort. After much soul-searching, I did drive on,and got to the track at 12.00, to discover, the good news, the meeting would go ahead.

As I got out the car, I did notice it was very windy, but, gave it little thought, as my mind was on the Cornish pasties, this racetrack excelled at.

Anyway, the meeting went ahead .. And, in the 1st race, prices did not seem accurate. This rarely happens for long .. Efficient markets catch up, but, this day, they stayed in-efficient .. So much so, that I won .. 8x in the first race.

This was a good start, but, wasn't that unusual, so, gave it little thought.

The markets stayed inefficient in race 2 and 3, and now, I was really confused. I started questioning my software .. But, was winning, 35x, so, although puzzled, boxed on.

I got a phone call after the 4th race, from a colleague, asking how things were going. By this time, I was winning 50x, and explained this to my friend .. At which point, the penny dropped, when he told me, the high winds had blown away the Race Transmission transmitter, and all the country was both without pictures, and a lot of betting information.

I went on, that day, to win 80x, ... 4 times the norm, and I just use this story, as a guide, to what can happen, when normally efficient markets, get distorted.

 

Back to the cricket.

 

At the game S.Africa scored a below par ?, 208. It's a bit debateble if its below par, as .. Average score batting 1st there, is 187 ..but, there haven't been that many games there, and last yr, S.Africa scored 300 against Sri Lanka.

I only just managed to get to the game, after a few mishaps in the morning, with the inclement weather, causing delays. I made it .. When, I could just as easily, have decided to bail, and watch India v England, and the Big Bash final on tv.

During the chase, at one stage NZ were 35-3, and priced at about 1.34, which for the non-traders, means NZ would be expected to win 1 game in 3.

For a bizzarre 10 minute period, the NZ price, crashed to 1.25, then 1.16, then 1.10. At 1.10 you are basically saying NZ would win the game, once, in 10, which, I am sure they would be v unhappy about, and was clearly wrong.

I did not know why the market had become so inefficient. I could understand, other cricket was being played .. Even more high profile games, so, many traders would be focused elsewhere, but, this was a massive move.

Twitter is a superb tool, to discover what's happening .. And a few tweets, quickly established TV pictures were being interrupted, at which point, the general power at the cricket ground, failed.

Now, if u are a trader, and, suddenly .. Lets make an analogy :

If bread is normally £1.00 a loaf .. And suddenly, it becomes 40p, what do you do ?

 

 

 


You might want to to buy a great deal, but, you have to both store it, and then sell it, before it goes stale. In the same way, a price for a cricket match, can quickly go, from being huge value, to worthless, so, this is where staking plans, and esoteric discussions of Kelly ( a staking system, based on edge), normally kick in.

Kelly will normally say, bet 2% of your bank. So, lets go back to the bread analogy .. Lets say, u have a bank of £1000 .. and u buy 20 loaves each day at £1, so u can sell them, at £1.10. (I know this only makes u £2 profit .. But, just bear with me).

Now, if the price of Bread goes to 40p, how many loaves should you buy ?

Many people will have different answers, and there is probably no right answer, although I could argue, there are some wrong ones.

Anyway, at the cricket, I had this opportunity/dilemma, and aggressively used it. Many times, I have gone the same route, only to find the bread is full of imperfections, and only fit for the birds. This time, I was able to hold my position long enough, before the market became semi- efficient again, and I could cash the profit.

 

On many occasions, I have gone the extra mile, only to get a kick in the nuts.

Days like these, make them more palatable.

 

Lost all of the money in Poker Stars .. Will reload