Betdaq Cheltenham Trading Competion

Been busy etc and will do other posts, but this one crossed my desk.

Last year, Peter Webb (Bet Angel) used his trading tools to trade on all 28 of the festival races and won on every one. He did a video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehUqgO0-K6Y

This is a pretty decent effort. Its not a billion to one chance . I would take 10/1 to do it (winning 5p or something), but his numbers were v strong, so he is obviously a great trader.

Betdaq generously announced a competition :

The basic rules were you had to trade on all 28 races and your net result would be multiplied by your net win percentage.

So, if u won $3k over the week and won on 14/28 races, it would have been $3k * 50% = $1500.

First prize 1k, 700 for 2nd, 300 for third.

I very rarely trade Cheltenham but this year was able to fit it in.

Competition strategy is important. I initially expected anyone making around $7k would be close to winning but as the week progressed, my idea of what would be needed fell.

My trading strategy was to try to limit losses, but if certain horses won, put myself into the frame.

During days 1-3, I was able to limit losers to just 1 a day and had some big swings in my favour.

By day 4, I felt I was v close to winning and though I had committed to not really trading Day 4, couldn't help myself when Apples Shakira was trading as low as 2.2. Beating this probably put me well over the top.

Here are my results for the 4 days ;

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

All of this made my winnings for the competition

So, about 4820 multiplied by net win percentage of 89% (25/28) = 4289.


That got the job done.

Was pleased that Betdaq trading volumes were up .. we estimate by around 20% on the week, and Betfair fell by about 15%, year on year.

Matchbook also had very decent liquidity. It's encouraging, competition is gaining traction, especially at high profile events.


Edit : Have discovered 2nd and 3rd were low 1k profits .. which probably indicates bad Game Theory, by risking it all in the first race of Day 4.

Ladbrokes Exchange

I am led to believe, this will be ready for launch, within a couple of weeks.

I am noticing a lot of preparation work, by Betdaq/Ladbrokes people, both on social media platforms, and internally, by people who have obviously thought things thru, pretty well.

It may be, initial seeding/offers, will just be a buffet for the professionals, but, I have always felt, Betfair would face a serious challenge, if anyone stepped up, and, am quietly hopeful.

Whether the platforms, can handle the extra traffic/be profitable, is debatable, but, just like, I think its possible, Microsoft could be gone in 10 yrs, I have always felt the same about Betfair.

Ladbrokes Exchange

In the last few days, Ladbrokes have started to announce the presence of the re-branding of the Betdaq exchange.

A twiiter account :  @Ladexchange has been created, and they appear to actively creating interest.

An advert, on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC5S_bB1NVc


A tab, on the beta website, for the exchange

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/


Various social media commentators, have had their digs, about the 'about face' - from once upon a time, saying exchanges encourage corruption :

http://www.e-comlaw.com/world-sports-law-report/article_template.asp?Contents=Yes&from=wslr&ID=580


and its fair comment .. but, that was with different management, in a different era.

I for one, am glad to see competition, and see no reason, why .. if Ladbrokes try, Betfair hasn't gotten a real competitor.

Pricing/treatment of winners/liquidity etc, are all questions, to be asked down the road, but, at least now, its a road, that we can see.

Laddaq - waiting for the changes

2 weeks ago, Ladbrokes finally acquired the Betdaq exchange, for a decent sum, and I was hoping for change.

http://megarainuk.blogspot.com/2013/01/exchange-stuff.html

I havent had a job for a long time, so, may have forgotten how ridiculously slow, big companies now operate, but .. If anything has really happened (on Betdaq), I have missed it.

Liquidity, if anything, has fallen .. At least on the mkts I have watched.

Maybe they are busy setting up meetings, with counterparts etc .. And the techies are in meetings, wondering how to get the 2 companies systems to talk to each other .. Users don't know .. They tell u nothing, but expect you to waste your time, looking at markets, which are just a copy of Betfair, less 9%.

Maybe my expectations were too high .. Maybe 2 months is a more realistic time-frame .. I really hope something has happened by then.

Just for the record, Ladbrokes share price, on Jan 21 2013 - 211.66

Ladbrokes share price Feb 7 2013 - 218.34

Betfair share price, Jan 21 2013 - 664.7

Betfair share price, Feb 7 2013 - 680.6

Posted with Blogsy

Exchange stuff

So, finally, after many years of speculation, Ladbrokes have acquired Betdaq, for Euro 30M, roughly £25m.
The rationale behind the move, is stated, as being :

( I have just tried to copy / paste from an IPad .. Article, as as usual, the piece of crap that is Apple, doesn't work. I see their shares are tanking .. I hope they go bust, they are an arrogant company, who doesn't give a shit about customer service.)

So, I will have to do it manually.

Combines Ladbrokes global brand, with a scale able betting exchange. (Liquidity can hardly get much worse).
Accelerates Ladrbokes strategy to grow digital revenues.
Enables Ladbrokes to address the full spectrum of the broader sports betting market.
Further enhances Ladbrokes liability management, with more flexible and lower cost hedging. ( This is an important point. Hopefully, they will now route hedging thru the exchange, improving liquidity. I believe they had to pay Betfair, to read the data, on the site .. By, improving liquidity n Betdaq, Ladbrokes will no longer, need to review other sites as intensively )

It will be interesting to see how Ladbrokes integrate the exchange, with their High Street presence, and websites. It's possible, it could be a very useful dimension, which may give something for Betfair to think about.
Of course, it's also possible, they use the exchange to get information, of successful punters, and may limit shrewdies .. We shall see.


Crossing the wires, late in the day, was an announcement that Andrew Black (Co-founder of Betfair), has decreased his holdings from 8.87% to 7.58%.

This seems odd, as the current CEO, Breon Corcoran, and Alexander Gersh, both spent £300k, buying shares last month, at about £6.58.

Current Betfair Share price is £6.70 .. far, far away from the listing days, when £15 seemed achievable.

I wonder what he must be thinking now .. and what Betfairs response, if any, will be, to the changing landscape.

I cannot help but feel, it was a great opportunity missed.

Posted with Blogsy