The pain of a poker player

Ok, so, it's a heading full of fore boding .. But, there are some highlights.

This week, the satellites for the WPT poker events are running, for the main events next week.

I am thinking about entering the main event .. But, it's $3500 to enter, and, really, it's too much. Satellites, are $100 to enter, and I tried my hand for the 1st time on Monday nite .. But, generally played poorly, and finally went out, beaten by flush over flush, which came on the river.

My Tuesday started, with a game of golf at Observatory .. A really tough course, which u have to play well, to have even a decent score. I was playing ok .. But, no consistency, when, I came to the 4 th hole. It's a par 3, uphill into the wind, (and creek, just before the green) and, as the course was being prepared for a Tourny later that day, the tee was right at the back .. Making it 178 yards.

I topped, my drive !! .. And hit it 16 yards, just past the ladies tee. Not good, but, took my 5 iron, and absolutely nailed a career best .. 4 foot past the hole !! .. Missed the putt .. Then, 2 holes later, is a v demanding, genuine par 5, which requires a straight drive, or you put your ball in the road, a solid second, and - 3rd 130 over water into the green.

I hit 2 good opening shots, and nailed an 8 iron, which looked phenomenal in the air, to 6 feet, for the 3rd .. Again missed the putt .. But, really enjoyed those 2 shots.

Still took 51 for the 9 holes .. But, some progress.

Back to the poker ..

Tuesday, I tried again, and there were 81 entrants .. So, there were 2 places in the main event up for grabs, plus a smaller cash prize for 3rd.

Nothing really fancy happened early on, but managed to get a workable stack, with some solid cards. After an hour, re-buys stopped, and some loose plays from the fish .. And some really poor play in places, got me to the final table .. 10 players, with 20 Big Blinds .. 40k chips .. Chip leader has 140k .. But, almost 1st hand, I get

A ♠ K ♠, and all in with a short stack, and a medium stack, I get a flush on the turn, and have a v nice stack.

An ex-jockey, I know, is on my left, and gets crippled, when his A Q, gets run down, by A J , when the other guy, hits a J on the river, for a really cruel blow.

He is left with 1k chip, but, amazingly, doubles up, 5 times In a row .. It shows it can be done.

There are 2 really loose players at the table, 2 absolute nits .. So, I try and pick my spots, when, a loose foreigner .. Raises again from early position.

He has 90 k stack, and I look at A♣ J ♣ , from the big blind. The blinds were 5000/10000, and his raise of 24k, is what he has raised previously, with middle pairs.

He has folded middle pairs .. In the past .. To shoves .. So, I have a dilemma.

Do I shove, and try and chip up .. Or call, see a flop etc .. Or just fold, and wait to pick on another smaller stack ?

I am going for the seat .. And think, a double up, would make me 90% for a seat, so .. Decide to shove.

He calls, with K J offsuit .. Which is just horrible .. I am 75 % fav, but, he hits a straight on the flop, and am crippled - both chip wise, and mentally.

I went out, shortly after .. And it's crushing .. To be so close .. And get beat, when such a good fav .. But, that's poker ..

Will try again, on Thursday .. but, feel this was my shot. Won't pay the $3500 to enter, but, will play the $200 smaller event. The $6500 event satellites, have had no interest, so, expect the High Roller event will have a v small field. U can see how top pros, can pick up bracelets, when, there are only 100 or so players .. If u enter enough, eventually, by sheer chance, u almost have to win.

When u  play a lot of tourneys, u see, a lot of the time, u are folding, just crap .. And waiting for good pairs/sited connectors, in late position, with which u either try and see a cheapest flop, or try and jam.

U don't especially need fancy bluffs .. They tend to matter more, on the final table - it's just about, what cards u get, in what position, and if anyone has a hand against u.

Pokers Ups and Downs

Presently writing this, whilst plating the early stages of  $55 of an online, Multi-Table-Tournament (MTT), with currently 3500 entries. Sitting in 325th place .. but, theres a long way to go.

Early stages can be v slow .. u only should be playing premium hands, medium suited connectors in late position .. so have some time to write.

In the lead-up to the WSOP satellite next week, have been playing a fair amount, and have, by and large, been crushed, by some v odd calls.

An example :

$40 re-buy tourney, 3 hrs in :

Have 45000 chips .. about 37 Big Blinds.

Its 600/1200 blinds, with 200 antes .. so, 4400 in the pot, and find A♦, J♠ in the big blind.

I re-raise, 5000, and, just the small blind calls .. a good player, who ..has a 21k stack. Now, calling .. is a bit odd .. I would have expected a shove .. so, am on my guard.

Flop comes : A♥, Q♣, 3♦

I think I'm ahead, but, he can have AQ, but, more likely, put him on pocket 10's, J's etc.

I check .. as, am not sure what I would do, if he raises, and turn is 5♦.

Basically, its a blank, and, wanting a small pot, I check, and he also checks.

River is another blank .. 6♠ .. making the board, A♥, Q♣, 3♦, 5♦, 6♠   he checks, I bet 6k, into the 14400 pot, and he shoves all-in.

I was really surprised by this, and .. figuring to beat a pocket pair .. call .. and he flips :

2♦, 4♥   for a straight.

Now, of all the cards, he could turn, that's just about the most unreal .. thou, I suppose, if u go back thru the hand .. pre-flop .. 2, 4 is 33% against A,J .. ok, hes dead against a pocket pair .. but, maybe he had odds to call, and the check on the flop, allowed him to get there.

I am not sure, I played it that badly .. ok, a c-bet, of 6k or so, would have killed it .. but, am not sure I would have called a shove, at that stage .. anyway .. a severe dent to my stack - and has me talking to myself, for quite a while.

A bit later on, I have 35k in chips, when, in late position, I pick up Q♠, 9♠, and raise.

Blinds are 800/1600 with 200 antes, so, raise 4k. Its called, by 2 players, and comes :

9♦, J♠, 4♠

Now, I have flush re-draw, and a pair of 9's. Just about the world. I c-bet, a bloated pot, 7k, and both guys ship, .. so its a monster pot.

One flips A♦, K♦, another shows A♠, 4♣ ?? .. anyway, I am ahead, but, turn comes A♦, and didn't find a spade on the river.

These are the pots, I play aggressively, to accumulate chips, but, am not winning right now.

The absolute doozy, of the weekend, was this gem :

$300 to enter, and I have an absolute loony to my left .. which is fine, who plays any 2.

There are only 34 players, starting stack, 10k chips, in the early stages .. I am trying to only play quality stuff, as there are a few decent faces at the table, when I pick up, 10♦, 8♦, in the big blind. 

I raise, small .. blinds are just 50/100, .. we have 100 BB, to 350.

The loony calls, and the flop, is 9♦, 7♦, 4♣.

So, have the world again .. straight flush draws. I bet 600, into a pot of 1050, and just the loony calls.

The turn, is 5♠, and I bet 1400, into 2250, and he ships !!  I have to call, and he turns : 7♠, 2♣

So, he has a pair of 7's .. I mean, come on !! 

I have the following cards to hit, to beat him : Any 10, any 8, any J, any 6, and any club. Thats .. count them, 3 x 10's, 3 x 8's, 3 x J's, 3 x 6's, and 6 clubs .. 18 cards  .. let alone, how the fuck he knows, I cant beat, a pair of fucking 7's ..

Anyway, I miss, and its not right.

Ladbrokes Exchange

I am led to believe, this will be ready for launch, within a couple of weeks.

I am noticing a lot of preparation work, by Betdaq/Ladbrokes people, both on social media platforms, and internally, by people who have obviously thought things thru, pretty well.

It may be, initial seeding/offers, will just be a buffet for the professionals, but, I have always felt, Betfair would face a serious challenge, if anyone stepped up, and, am quietly hopeful.

Whether the platforms, can handle the extra traffic/be profitable, is debatable, but, just like, I think its possible, Microsoft could be gone in 10 yrs, I have always felt the same about Betfair.

2nd Test - Pakistan v S.Africa - Dubai

Will Haroon be allowed to watch ?

Anyway .. S.Africa 1 down, and havent lost a series, for a long time.

Pre-toss, worries about Amla missing (wife having baby), and Steyn, who came  thru, and plays.

Prices -

Pakistan  3.85

S.Africa 2.28

Draw 3.3


A big toss, and Pakistan finally win one !!

Pakistan decide to bat, on a pitch, that looks like it will turn from day 2.


Pakistan 3.3

S.Africa 2.5

Draw 3.45


Pakistan looks a bit short to me .. and have a small position against them.


Here we go :


Wkt - 2nd Ball !!  Steyn bowls 2 beuities :

Pak 0-1

Pak 3.8

SA 2.00

Draw 4.2


Pak 8-1 .. and SA bowling well but, already signs, ball may not bounce as much, in a few hrs.

Have removed Pak red, and starting to back draw.

Pak 3.55

SA 1.98

Draw 4.5

The whole world, wants to lay the draw .. I think, if anything, its big ,,


As ever, am against the trend, but, have a nice start : Backe draw 4.5, laid SA 2.00

Drinks -

Pak 2.84

SA 2.68

Draw 3.55

Wkt - Ali - 19 from 54 .. Pak 38-2 ..

Wkt came from no-where really ..

SA 2.1

Pak 3.3

Draw 4.1



Pak 48-2 .. 30 mins before lunch, so, slow going.

SA 2.2

Pak 3.25

Draw 4.2


Wkt for Tahir  -  Pak 52-3

SA 1.78

Pak 3.6

Draw 5.6

Book caught out by the quick qkts, and wasted big green ,, waiting for lower odds. Small red now.


Steyn bowled really well, and get Younus Khan .. 10 from 26 .. Pak in trouble  60-4

SA 1.48

Pak 4.5

Draw 8.6

Fuck me .. another, before lunch, for Tahir ..

Pak 60-6

SA 1.23

Pak 6.6

Draw 25

Sick ..Lunch called ..


The torment continues : After lunch, suicidal run, and out by a mile :

Pak 64-7

SA 1.18

Pak 8

Draw 24


Hard to keep up, as 2 other games on :

Pak 82-9

SA 1.13

Pak 12

Draw 30

Pleased for Tahir, who has 5 wkts .. but, bank manager wont be happy.

Pak all out for 99 .. from being 58-2


Lets see how SA bat on this deck, from, watching, it looked pretty woeful.

Heres the reply :

SA 9-0 after 4 overs .. the odd scare, but, no joy yet for Pakistan.

SA 1.15

Pak 11

Draw 25


Pak rip up both reviews .. some team this :

SA 29-0 after 7 overs .. and spin comes on, for the 1st time.

SA 1.13

Pak 13

Draw 23

Wkt for Babar  SA 37-1   -   Petersen goes, and continues to not really impress.

prices dont budge ..

Tea .. 41-1

Inching along after Tea :

62-1 after 22 overs ..

SA 1.15

Pak 12

Draw 17

Not much interest,as Ind v Aus game, looks a cracker


78-1 and comms foccusing on cricinfo reporters falling asleep in the (comfy) stands.

91-1 Drinks

SA 1.12

Pak 19

Draw 16


Elgar goes .. 91-2

SA 1.14

Pak 15

Draw 17


////////////////////////////

SA went on to score 517 or so, and Pak, tailed off, currently 362 behind, with 3 wkts down.

The champs, have really nailed this one .. I unfortunately, didnt ..

/////////////////////////////

A day or so later, and some ball tampering .. ahem .. Pak are 179 behind, for 4 wkts, with 135 overs left in the Test.

SA 1.21

Pak 150

Draw 5.5

Mkt has been showing signs of panic .. or manpiluation .. take your pick.

Week-end Poker

Am playing more and more, in the lead-up to the WPT - World Poker Tour events, coming here from Nov 4-11.

As have only played at the Emperors Casino, a long time ago, decided to play the Saturday comp, which, is a 2 hr re-buy, shuv fest, followed by some serious poker.

The 1st 2 hrs, u should read a a book, as the blinds are low, and u can top-up, with 12k chips, for the same money as the initial buy-in, for which u get 6k chips.

Anyway .. after 3 hrs, there are 40 left, with a $10k prize pool.

The format has antes, which I like, as it encourages aggressive play, and was doing ok, - chip leader on my table, when I picked up

J♥ Q♥ in the big blind. I had 55k chips, blinds 200/400, 200 ante.

I raised 2 limpers, to 2200, and got one caller.

The flop came : 5♥, 5♦, J♠ and I checked.

He checked, and the turn came Q♠.

I put the a bet - about 3600 to see whats happening, and he flats. Now, he either has A,J, which I crush, maybe A,Q, or a random 5.

The River, was a 2♠, total blank, so, figure I'm prob ahead, and want to get paid off, by 2nd best hands, bet 6500. He calls, and shows A♠, 5♣ .. so, lose about 15k chips, and went steadily downhill from there.

The place was unbelievably noisy .. the Poker 'Room', is bang in the middle, of a v large casino, with an Elvis tribute band, singing literally 20 yards away :

Headphones, are a must, for next time.


Anyway, finally went out, in 30th place or so .. and would play again . its pretty much the same mix of regs, but, a few new faces, and .. with the structure, I like my chances.


On Sunday, I played in the $150, normal comp .. 40 players, and its amazing how hands repeat.

With an average stack .. I pick up : 5♠, 5♦, and raise, from mid-position, called, by a tight/weak, lady, in the Big Blind. We both had similar stacks.

The flop is : 5♣, 5♥, 4♣ .. and its hard not to shout out .. YAHTZEE !!

Its only the 2nd time, I have flopped quads, in about  6 mths, and manage to get all the money-in, by check calling her small bets, and letting her make a flush, which I .. naturally crush.

A while later, I had pocket Q♣,Q♠, downed, in a 3 way all-in pre-flop, by Pocket 8♦,8♠, and Pocket 10♦,10♣ .. but, still managed to survive.

I get to the final table .. with about 6 regs, and 3 unknowns. I play a very loose aggressive game, at this stage, and show bluffs, and everyone knows, I can have, almost anything.

Down to 5 players .. 5th gets $300, but 1st gets $3000, I am in 2nd place, when get pocket Aces under the gun !!

Blinds at the time, were 3000/6000 .. I have a 75k stack, and raise to 18k.

This is the normal raise, and its one, I put-in with, suited connectors/total air, or strong starting hands.

Its folded to the Big Button, the chip leader, who has 95k chips, and he calls.

The flop comes, 5♣, J♠, Q♦, and I bet 30k .. too much really .. looking back, I would have preferred 20k, and the chip leader, calls, all-in.

The 30k I have in, commits me, and I call, and he flops over, pocket 5♦, 5♥ .. and I find no miracles, to down his set.

I feel, a little unlucky, but, could have go away, if my bet on the flop, was less .. so, its a mistake.

Anyway, am playing well ..

ODI - India v Australia - Mohali

Game 3 - with series tied at 1-1.

Aus win the toss, and decide to field . for a change.

India drift, from 1.63 to 1.70

Run line, 296  .. avg score last 5 matches, 288


Here we go :

India 2-0 after 1, India 1.75

Wkt - Dhawan 8 .. India 14-1, India 1.81, after touching 1.61 in the over

India 14-1 after 2, India 1.79

India 21-1 after 4, India 1.78 .. have a small position with India

India 35-1 after 6, India 1.71

Wkt - Sharma 11 from 22, India 37-2 .. even game ..

India 41-2 after 8, India 1.94

v quick outfield .. still think 290+ is poss ..

India 60-2 after 10, India 1.75  still with India, actually pressed a bit ..

India 68-3 after 12, India 1.80

Wkt - Raina - 17 from 19, 76-3 .. Aus favs 1.91 ..

Wkt - Yuvraj .. 2 in 2 balls .. Aus 1.52 .. India in trouble now ..

Dhoni comes out, and get injured, running for a single .. trainer on .. doesn't look terminal ..

India 77-4 after 14, Aus 1.55 .. got sick book .. cant do much ..

India 86-4 after 16, Aus 1.63

India 92-4 after 18, Aus 1.63

India 103-4 after 21, Aus 1.63 and not budging, while India try and consolidate

India 117-4 after 24,  Aus 1.80 ..

India 136-4 after 27, Aus 1.88

Wkt - Kohli - 148-5 after 29.4, Aus 1.52, after hitting 1.94

India 153-5 after 31, Aus 1.58 .. have laid Aus more ..

Wkt - Jadeja - 154-6 - Aus 1.35 .. just Dhoni really now .. gotta hope for 250 ..

India 161-6 after 32, Aus 1.43

India 176-6 after 36, Aus 1.48

India 190-6 after 37, Aus 1.59 .. if it gets to 1.70, will reduce position .. still showing big Red

India 202-6 after 20, Aus 1.57

6,4 .. and Aus go 1.73

India 215-6 after 41, Aus 1.73 .. reducing position, for loss, but have hope .. need 2.00 for profit

Gotta admire Dhoni .. injured early, but so solid :

78 from 94 so far :

India 227-6 after 42, Aus 1.88

Wkt - Ashwin goes - 28 from 35, India 229-7 after 42.4 .. Aus 1.68  .. 4 wkts for Johnson .. who, is currently, one of the best bowlers in the world .. a cert for the Ashes, IMHO.

India 244-7 after 44, Aus 1.88

India 246-7 after 45, Aus 1.85

India 247-7 after 46, Aus 1.85 (for no runs) .. mkt will move a lot higher, with runs ..

India 256-7 after 47, Aus 1.86

100 for Dhoni .. 264-7 after 47.2 .. India favs !! 1.88

Wkt - Kumar goes - 267-8 after 47.4 .. Aus 1.95 ..took some profit, .. luckily, got smaller book now.

India 267-8 after 48 .. would like 25-30 more runs ..

Dhoni dropped by Bailey .. might be expensive ..

India 282-8 after 49, India 1.80

India finish on 303  .. India 1.60   .. shows u, catches win matches ..

Will take the green .. got a poker tourny later ..


Heres the reply ..


Aus 5-0 after 1, India 1.72

Aus 12-0 after 2, some wides, 1 false shot .. India 1.82

Aus 16-0 after 3, India 1.92

Aus 22-0 after 4, even game

Aus 29-0 after 5, Aus favs 1.95

Aus 35-0 after 6, Aus 1.92 .. flat, but, if pressed, would back Aus ..

Have to leave in 45 mins, so, not getting involved.

Aus 39-0 after 7, Aus 1.86

Aus 48-0 after 8, Aus 1.73

Aus 60-0 after 9, Aus 1.59 .. India bowlers, just not up to it

Aus 64-0 after 10, Aus 1.57

Controvesial .. maybe catch, off shoulder and bat, maybe not .. not given .. no one walked .. Indians not happy ..

Aus 67-0 after 11, Aus 1.62

I am never sure, whether, umps now, have in their mind, they maybe 'owe' a side one, and if this is in the price .. I am not sure, he does 'owe' them one, but, am sure, Kohli wasn't happy .. thou, he middled one last game, and never walked .. maybe, hes got a short memory.

Wkt - Hughes goes .. 68-1 .. even game

Aus 69-1 after 13.. even game .. leaving to play poker ..

Ladbrokes Exchange

In the last few days, Ladbrokes have started to announce the presence of the re-branding of the Betdaq exchange.

A twiiter account :  @Ladexchange has been created, and they appear to actively creating interest.

An advert, on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC5S_bB1NVc


A tab, on the beta website, for the exchange

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/


Various social media commentators, have had their digs, about the 'about face' - from once upon a time, saying exchanges encourage corruption :

http://www.e-comlaw.com/world-sports-law-report/article_template.asp?Contents=Yes&from=wslr&ID=580


and its fair comment .. but, that was with different management, in a different era.

I for one, am glad to see competition, and see no reason, why .. if Ladbrokes try, Betfair hasn't gotten a real competitor.

Pricing/treatment of winners/liquidity etc, are all questions, to be asked down the road, but, at least now, its a road, that we can see.

Pakistan in Dubai - Odds for Test 2

The 1st test is coming to a close, and, even a S.African supporter, would admit, they have been totally out-played.

We have always known, Pakistan have an outstanding bowling attack, but, their batting, has been fragile, to say the least .. so, was wondering, whether the flat pitches, which can be slower .. a lot slower, give their batters, enough time, to improve their averages.

They haven't played many Tests, at the Dubai Cricket Stadium .. the next venue :

v England - 2 tests, and they scored :

99, 365, for a win, in the 3rd test  Feb 2012

338, 15, for a win by 10 wkts, in the 1st Test  Jan 2012

v Sri Lanka - 1 test, and they scored

403, 94, for a win by 9 wkts in the test, Oct 2011

v S.Africa - 1 test, and they scored

248, 343 for a draw.

So, it seems, Pak haven't lost a Test here, for over 4 yrs ..

I am thinking, given the trouncing they gave S.Africa is the 1st test, how they will bet, for the 2nd Test.

In the 1st test, it was , after the toss

Pak 7.4

SA 2.24

Draw 2.38

...

I imagine, they would be a great deal shorter, for Test 2 - maybe :

Pak 4.00

SA 3.00

Draw 2.5

98% book

Will be interesting ...

((forgot to add, Hashim Amla's wife may be havng 2nd child .. Hash, may go home))


////////////////////


Ok, so a day later, Pak won the 1st Test by 7 wkts, and the odds for Test 2 are out.

Currently, they are :

Pak 4.2

SA 2.32

Draw 2.98


Pak captain, has publicly said, he wants a result wkt - which may have had some influence ..

I wasnt far out .. and would be willing to back Pak, if they get much bigger.

1st Test - Pakistan v S.Africa - Abu Dhabi - Day 3

Overslept a little -- energy bars, didn't really work ..

Walked in, just as Pak lose 4th wkt.

Pak 291-4 .. lead by 42 ..

Pak 1.72

SA 10

Draw 3.1

((Kallis took the catch, going 3rd on all time catchers list (195), on his 38th Birthday))


Book is still biased towards draw, and hope we see some slow scoring.

Drinks ..

302-4 .. lead by 53

Pak 1.73

SA 12

Draw 2.88  ..

Am backing SA/Draw .. more .. call me reckless ..

Caught a great wave ..

Draw crashes to 2.72 ..


Smith goes off, to see physio, after running for catch .. hope hes ok.

Pak speed up a bit ..

340-4

Pak 1.67

SA 19

Draw 2.80

With faster scoring, Draw flies out the window ..

Pak 1.61

SA 22

Draw 2.92

Almost lunch .. Satelite picture down ..


Lunch 352-4  .. Lead by 103

Smith back on, and looks fne (running for ball, on boundary)

Pak 358-4

Pak 1.61

SA 27

Draw 2.9


Wkt - leading edge

Pak 372-5  .. lead 123

Pak 1.65

SA 20

Draw 2.84


Pak slowing a bit ..

Pak 380-5

Pak 1.67

SA 18

Draw 2.88

Am laying Pak .. 1.67 .. for trade.


Drinks :

Pak 385-5

Pak 1.7

SA 19

Draw 2.74

caught another wave ...

Misbah gets maiden 100 against SA ..  394-5

and probably .. wkt, few balls later

Pak 394-6

Pak 1.69

SA 14

Draw 2.92


20 Mins to Tea :

Pak 418-6

Pak 1.63

SA 21

Draw 2.90


Pitch really slow .. middle-order playing classic shots .. still with Draw ..


Wkt - 423-7

Pak 1.67

SA 16

Draw 2.88


Wkt  on Tea  429-8

Pak 1.68

SA 14

Daw 2.92

Hope SA bat soon afte tea,and 50-1 at the close .. Draw would be an interesting price ..


After Tea .. Pak look vulnerable :

Wkt : 437-9

Pak 1.66

SA 14

Draw 2.88


All Out -- 442  .. lead 193 .. gonna be an interesting final hr or so

Pak 1.74

SA 12

Draw 2.92


Run spreads for SA 336 .. which looks low to me, and am long, and am on Draw .. might be either beans on toast, or caviar ..

Smith unsighted 1st ball, and almost gets done LBW .. wot a start ..


SA 12-0

Pak 1.87

SA 9

Draw 2.82

Have great book ..


Irfan being warned for his follow-thru .. if he goes off ....


SA 19-0

Pak 1.83

SA 10

Draw 2.92

Ajmal already bowling ..


SA 23-0

Pak 2.0

SA 11

Draw 2.46


SA 25-0

Pak 2.14

SA 10

Draw 2.3


Pitch isnt as slow, as I thght, but, still v playable ..


Am now flat .. have taken profits ..



Wow .. just in time .

Wkt  38-1

Pak 1.70

SA 11

Draw 3.0


Draw went to 3.2 .. and I am dragged back in .. its too big  ..

Drinks

SA 48-1 .. 145 behind

Pak 1.68

SA 10.5

Draw 3.05

With draw, but Green ....

Ajmal looking v good .. but, will need to bowl a lot of overs.

Am reducing pos with Draw ..


Wkt - Smith - Stumped

57-2

Pak 1.38

SA 12

Draw 4.6


Wkt - Kallis

58-3

Pak 1.20

SA 16

Draw 9

Looks cooked now .. Kallis had poor game, both with bat and ball ..


Flagging, at the end of a long day .. 3 Tvs showing ckt .. Need Aspirin

SA 72-3

Pak 1.29

SA 14

Draw 6.2


Flat .. tired ..


Amla goes .. SA 72-4

Pak 1.12

SA 20

Draw 14

Pak have played super ..

Energy bars

Am chomping a rum'n;raisen energy bar, which I found hidden below some other creature comforts, and its not as bad as u would think.

So far, I am struggling to fully open the ruddy thing .. as its held together, like its been encased in super-glue, but am hopeful.

My  energy levels, are as low as a marooned Starship Enterprise, after having a long weekend, and playing Poker last nite, till 2.30 am.

Getting up, 3 hrs later, for ckt, is not easy.

The poker last  nite was fun .. actually saw some cards, and had a long chat, to a succesful poker-pro from Cape Town. When u discuss hands with experts, u realise, just how badly u play some spots, but, am willing to learn.

The whole week looks jammed .. with multiple double/triple headers of ckt .. and its look like a long few weeks in progress.

Luckily, has gotten hot .. so, the pool which costs me an avg £60 a swim, to maintain, may actuatlly get some use.

1st test - Pakistan v S.Africa - Abu Dhabi - Day 2

Amla, goes, 2nd ball ..

SA 245-9 ..

Pak 2.86

S.A 2.12

Draw 5.5


Book looking v sick, but, am staying with Draw  .. probably should cut and run, but wont.

SA 249 all out ...

Pak 2.52

SA 2.36

Draw 5.7


Market has a re-think, before Pak bat :

Pak 2.64

SA 2.34

Draw 5.1

Run line for Pak .. 290 or so ..  Betdaq down


Pak 11-0 and pitch seems docile again ..like it did yesterday ..

Mkt on Draw collapses !!!

Pak 2.46

SA 2.84

Draw 4.1


Market hates SA .. as pitch looks flat .. Draw taking all the SA money ..

Pak 12-0 after 3 ..

Pak 2.46

SA 3.15

Draw 3.8

..

Book looks a lot better ..

Kallis drops a chance, at slip ..Not easy, only just carried, v low.

Pak 20-0 after 5

Pak 2.38

SA 3.05

Draw 3.85

Think draw is going v low .. but, I have thght that, for a week ..


Pak 38-0 after 8

Pak 2.28

SA 3.45

Draw 3.6

At drink, Pak move on to 43-0 .. fast bowlers will feel the heat, if no wkts, v soon.

SA have no spinner .. Pak have Ajmal .. so, Pak can def win .. not sure, SA can.


Pak get to 50, unbeaten .. must be a docile pitch !!

Pak 2.1

SA 3.9

Draw 3.7


Lunch  .. 77-0

A very pleasing morning .. time for coffee  ..

Pak 2.14

SA 4.5

Draw 3.1


After a quiet lunch, Steyn resumes :

Pak 82-0

Pak 1.98   ?? Looks low to me, and am laying

SA 5.4

Draw 3.15


87-0 and pitch not doing much ..

Big move for Pak, which has me a little surprised.

Pak 1.83


106-0 ..

Pak  1.84

SA 7

Draw 3.05


129-0 after 42

Pak 1.68

SA 9.4

Draw 3.25

Am against Pak, and would like them to slow a bit/lose wkts ..


Wkt - finally -- 135-1

Pak 1.77

SA 7

Draw 3.3


Tea : 155-1

The market, on the whole, hasn't really panicked, or done anything, too jumpy.

I keep getting the impression, modellers are having more an impact.

Pak 1.72

SA 8.4

Draw 3.25

//////////////////////////////////


Betfair had some problems, so decided to go to sleep ..

At the close, Pak 263-3 .. lead by 14.

Pak 1.64

SA 11

Draw 3.35


3 days left, but, u would think, Pak get a lead of 150-200. SA would need to dig in, and score, maybe 400, for a draw, which, would not be beyond them .. just scared of Ajmal.

Prices look right, but, am with draw.

1st Test - Pakistan v S.Africa - Abu Dhabi

Baking heat, road of a pitch ..  (not as humid as Sharjah, but, still pretty hot).

Expecting draw to trade v low, and have backed at all prices, down from 3.4


Pre Toss :

Pak 5.5

S.Africa  2.3

Draw 2.58

...

Pitch looks browner than, the last time (when they played to 2 draws), and SA have won a v good toss, and bat.

(Misbah lost 8th consecutive toss .. world record, held by Sunil Gavasker - 9)

Pak have 2 spinners, who, will be a bit of a luxury now.

Pak 7.0

SA 2.16

Draw 2.48

Run line - 380 or so, which looks low to me .. am long runs.

///

Petersen ,, who I am not a fan of, goes early ..

SA 6-1  .. but, prices don't move a huge amount.

SA 14-1 after 5 .. Amla and Smith at crease

Pak 7.0

SA 2.30

Draw 2.38

...

Smith goes - 19-2 ..

Pak 5.0

SA 2.4

Draw 2.58


SA 28-2 after 10

Pak 5.7

SA 2.3

Draw 2.58

Drinks - 40-2

Pak 5.8

SA 2.32

Draw 2.48 ..

Once shine goes, and heat gets to bowlers, draw shud go much shorter .. with draw for now ..


Wkt - which, I didnt really see coming,as ball was seeming slower off the pitch .. Kallis goes

SA 43-3

Pak 4.0

SA 2.48

Draw 2.9


Lunch 66-3

Pak 4.2

SA 2.34

Draw 2.94

Am with draw, against SA .. but, long SA runs .. so, its tricky.


78-3 after lunch, and batting already seems a little easier.

Pak 4.8

SA 2.26

Draw 2.82

Good 50 for Hashim Amla .. 89-3

Pak 6.0

SA 2.14

Draw 2.66

Still with draw ..

Wkt - stumping .. but, just poor batting.

AB Dev 19 from 76  .. SA 104-4

Pak 4.0

SA 2.32

Draw 3.05


SA 129-4   .. Amla 63 from 119 so far

Pak 4.6

SA  2.18

Draw 3.00

I make draw, consistently, much lower  .. and am still with draw ..

Tea --  152-4

Pak 6.0

SA 2.08

Draw 2.82


after Tea, SA pick up scoring pace, a bit ..

SA 174-4

Pak 8

SA 2.02

Draw 2.62

Irfan goes off .. maybe cramp .. maybe injury .. heat doesnt help etc..


SA move on .. not the fastest .. 196-4 after 69

Pak 9.2

SA 1.92

Draw 2.66

Wkt - Duminy goes


SA 201-5

Pak 6.8

SA 2.02

Draw 2.78


Wkt - SA 206-6

Pak 4.1

SA 2.2

Draw 3.3


Wkt - SA 217-7


Pak 3.00

SA 2.24

Draw 4.6


Wkt - SA 222-8  .. and this is going pear shaped ..

Pak 2.98

SA 2.2

Draw 5.3


Run lines look sick,as do draw backs .. looking for a bridge ..

SA 245-8 .. 88 overs in

Pak 3.45

SA 2.08

Draw 4.3


End of a fascinating days play .. SA 245-8  .. Amla still unbeaten, on 118.

Pak 3.5

SA 2.08

Draw 4.3


Pak bowled great, and SA looked rusty/careless at times. Book looks sick, from where it was this morning .. should have stayed in bed .. but, have some hope ..

On-line bookies margins

Let me start out, by saying, Bookmakers are generally :

* Spineless

* Clueless

* Whinging

* Lazy


So, on the whole, they have v little use for pro-gamblers, as they just wont lay u a decent bet.

There are some exceptions .. Pinnacle.com, have a very good reputation for laying sizabe wagers -- $100k on prominent NFL/Baseball/Soccer .. and ther margins, are reasonable .. maybe 4-5%.

Some on-line books, take the piss, at betting to 22% margins, and even then, are scared shitless, to acually lay a bet, to take out, maybe $300.

They are fucking unbelievable, and deserve to have their licences suspended.

ODI - India v Australia - Pune

Aus won the toss, and will bat

Run line 272

India 1.61


No position, gonna wait a while :

Aus 1-0 after 1, India 1.61

Aus 3-0 after 3, India 1.60 .. flat

Aus 13-0 after 5, India 1.60

Aus 29-0 after 7, India 1.70 .. after touching 1.50, an over before ..

Love with India, but, a few more runs, will press a small Aus back ..

Aus 43-0 after 9, taken Aus for big position ..

I would make mkt bias, about 8-12 ticks .. which, shows, if India take wkts, its well rewarded, but, Aus scoreing for fun, right now .. happy to be with Aus .. but, will take profits at 1.9x

Aus 53-0 after 11, India 1.86

(drop by Kohli .. not easy, but 8/10 taken)

Target price, hit next over (1.97) .. going flatish, bias towards Aus  62-0, after 12

Aus 73-0 after 13, Aus favs .. 1.87

Aus 86-0 after 13, Aus 1.77

Aus 95-0 after 17, Aus 1.71 .. after having touched 1.64 .. completely flat .. if anything, think Aus a lay ..

Wkt - Hughes - 47 from 53 -- Aus 110-1 after 18.1 .. Aus 1.73 .. been as low as 1.60

Wkt - Watson .. 2 from 2. silly shot .. Aus 113-2 .. India favs, 1.95

Aus 114-2 after 20, India 1.87 .. mkt love back ..

Aus 125-3 after 23,India 1.98 .. have backed India, with some of my green ..

Aus 146-2 after 27, Aus 1.95

Wkt - Finch goes .. 72 from 79, India 1.68...

Aus 150-3 after 28, India 1.79

Aus 164-3 after 30, India 1.85 .. gone flat ..

Wkt - run-out - Aus 172-4 after 32 .. India 1.72

Aus 200-4 after 37, even game .. flat ..

Wkt, after 2 6's in the over .. Maxwell 31 off 23, 214-5 after 38 .. Aus 1.98, after touching 1.70 in over.

Aus 224-5 after 40, India 1.93

Wkt - Haddin - 231-6 after 42.2.. India 1.68

Aus probably need 50 more, for an even game .. India come back well ..

Aus 234-6 after 43 .. captain Bailey, still at the crease .. India 1.66

Aus 244-6 after 44.. India 1.82 .. have laid India, small ..

Aus 251-6 after 45, India 1.87 ..

Aus 259-6 after 46, India 1.93 ..

Wkt - Bailey goes, 85 from 82, Aus 264-7 after 46.3 .. India 1.80

Aus 266-7 after 47, India 1.76

Aus 282-7 after 48, Aus favs 1.96 .. taken profit, gone flat ..

Aus 291-7 after 49, even game ..

Aus finish on 304-8 .. looks v decent .. Aus 1.90 .. worthy favs for me ..


Am largely flat, with some decent greens :


Heres the reply :


India 3-0 after 1, Aus 1.95

India 6-0 after 2, Aus 1.89

India 7-0 after 3, Aus 1.83

India 8-0 after 4, Aus 1.78

India 15-0 after 5, Aus 1.83

Wkt - India 26-1 after 6.2 .. Aus 1.58

India 29-1 after 8, Aus 1.56 .. Haddin off, with eye problem ..


.....

Fell sleep .. too early a start/long weekend ..

India collapsed .. Aus win easily.

$600 Poker-Shootout

Really enjoying my poker, and decided to go for a 'next level' jump, by playing with the big boys.

Silver Star casino, which only has 4 licenced Poker tables, hosted a $600 event, which had a little unusual structure.

It was based, on 10 man tables, with a starting stack of 15000 chips, blinds 25/50 to start, 30 min levels, and antes come in, after level 4.

The top 2 players, from each table, go forward to the final 20 .. or so, who will play for .. $80k roughly.

I decided to play in the Saturday Am, section, starting 11am.

The casino is an hr or so from me, but, easy enough to find, and its a refreshingly new/well laid out casino.

I walked in, just as my nemesis Alon Arguman arrvies, and as we draw for which of the 4 tables we are playing on, he draws the same table as me. I dont especially mind this, as I know his solid style (hes v good), and, hes a face I know.

It turns out, of the 10 players, I know 4 of them, v well, so, their are 5 unknowns, althogh I recall playing with 1 before.

So, basically, the structure is a Sit'n'Go, paying 2 places .. and read up, a lot, in the previous days, finding optimum ways to play.

I decide to just play, premium pairs, down to AQ, in early position, and small pairs/suited connecters, in mid-late position, with raises of 4x Big Blind, from early position, in the early rounds, 3xBB, in mid rounds, and 2.2 x BB, later than that, if I make it.

Early on, I see nothing, as(usual) and run a bluff, which costs me 3500 chips, which gets called by Alon, .. he has 4th pair, but, it serves me well, as it shows the table, I have a loose image (they think), and I am a target to go for.

In 5 hrs of play, I see pocket Kings once (A on the board, so win minimum chips), AK once, and mid pairs, maybe 3 times. Being totally card dead, I have to steal where I can, but, have a v decent read on 2 of the unknown players, who are weak, and often rob them of chips.

Being v desciplined, I folded to re-raises, but felt I had 2 chances, to really get chips.

One hand, I have 6♦ 6♠, with the blinds 100/200, and I raise to 900.

Its called by a reg, who only plays good face cards .. and the flop comes :  A♦ 7♥ 4♣  ..

I c-bet, 1450, and its called.

The turn, BINK !! is 6♣, giving me trips, and I hope the reg, has A J, A 10, or maybe better, so I can get well paid.

I bet the turn, 2000, and he raises, 3000 on top. I shove, almost immediately, and he folds, also, almost immediately  .. but, looking back, I wish I had just flat called, and let him bet the river, as, I dont think any card can help him.

About an hr later, my stack was back to about 20k, when I pick up A♥ J♥ under the gun. Blinds were, 200/400, and I raise to 1600, just called by Alon, in the Big blind, who, has a monster stack, from getting Pocket Aces twice, once, hitting quads.

Flop comes, A♣, 9♦, 7♥, and I bet 2500. He flat calls, and am little unsure where I am. He must have an Ace, but, could also have a pocket pair, including pocket 9's or 7's.

Turn comes K♣. and here, I make a key mistake, in checking. I should have bet, 3500 or so, but didnt.

River comes, a harmless looking 3♦, and I check, hoping to showdown, but, he bets 3k. I call, and he flips, A♦, 3♠, for 2 pair .. he hit a 3 outer on the river, and won a v decent pot, that should have been mine.

A wihle later, I picked up my dream hand .. I literally have dreams about 8♥,7♥ .. never oddly, with it finishing that I make a straight. Anyway .. in the Big Blind, 4 players called, so, I also flat call, and the flop comes :

9♥, 6♦, 4♣.

Not the worst, with 8 immediate winning outs, and some back-door flushes.

I bet, into a bloated pot, 2200, and its called by a weakish player, who has loads of chips, I have a read on - all others fold.

The turn comes, Q♣, a blank, and I check, and he also checks. I was really hoping for a 10, or 5, for my straight, but, an 8♦ comes ..  and I check. .. Board now 9♥, 6♦, 4♣, Q♣, 8♥

He bets 3k, and .. into a pot of about 11k, I was getting too good odds to fold, so, called, and he shows 7♣, 7♦, giving me a winning hand. The table is well impressed with my call - Just a pair 8's, but, with my read/odds, it was fairly easy.

Anyway, I boxed on, and players got knocked out, so there were 4 of us left .. top 2, going thru. 2 players, were regs I play with, (including Alon,) and an unknown. I was short stacked, 12 Big Blinds or so, but, won chips here and there, till, Alon shoves, on my big blind, when I pick up K♠, J♦.

I only have 7 BB left so call, and he flips 8♣,8♠ .. hes 55% fav, but flop comes :

3♦, K♦, 7♥ .. and I have solid 90%  lead, to finaly win against my nemesis, but, the turn is 8♠, and I have no outs.

Its a cruel end, but, suppose it played itself.

I feel I  played really well, with nothing, and am looking forward to some WSOP events, in early Nov.

T20 - India v Australia - Rajkot

A great match-up .. 2 v high class teams.

Maybe India a little stronger on paper ..

Pre-toss, India 1.67 .. India win toss, and decide to field.

India 1.69

Aus run line, about 165

No Clarke or Warner for Aus, as expected .. Some really new players for Aus .. Putting pressure on established players.

Love the balance of the Indian side, and have backed them.

 

Some rain around, CMM 1.06 Yes, but, no problems with the start.

 

Here we go :

 

Aus 9-0 after 1, India 1.83

Ball not doing too much, might be a very high scoring game.

Mkt wants to get with Aus.

Aus 19-0 after 2, Aus favs 1.91 ...

Aus 36-0 after 3, Aus 1.67 .. Flying start by Aus ..

Aus 48-0 after 4, Aus 1.55 .. Have laid Aus more .. Pretty Red right now ..

Wkt - Maddison 34 from 16, 56-1 , Aus 1.65 ..

Aus 60-1 after 5, Aus 1.58

Aus 74-1 after 6, Aus 1.54 .. Bowling isn't the worst, Aus batters, just hitting it in the middle.

Aus 82-1 after 7, Aus 1.54

Wkt - Watson goes - 84-2 after 7.2 , Aus 1.66 .. LBW, looked out, Watson not happy.

Wkt - Phew .. Saved me book .. 84-3 after 7.5 .. Even game

Aus 86-3 after 8 overs, Aus 1.95

Aus 90-3 after 9, Aus 1.95

Aus 114-3 after 10, Aus 1.57 .. Some poor balls from Ashwin ..

Aus 124-3 after 11, Aus 1.47 ..

Looking like 210+ .. Won't be an easy chase .

Wkt - Maxwell 27 from 12, after 11.2 .. Aus 1.65

Aus 129-4 after 12, Aus 1.66 .. Still with India, at 1.8 avg

Aus 143-4 after 13, Aus 1.57

Wkt - Haddin goes - 146-5 after 13.3, Aus 1.63

Aus 151-5 after 14, Aus 1.59

Aus 157-5 after 15, Aus 1.61

Aus 172-5 after 16, Aus 1.46 .. Finch playing the same role, as at Aegis Bowl ..

Wkt - unreal caught & bowl .. Finch 89 from 52, 174-6 After16.3, 1.62

Big wkt, might save India 20 runs ..

Aus 176-6 after 17, Aus 1.68

Wkt - 180-7 after 17.4 .. Aus 1.76 .. India bringing it back.

Aus 182-7 after 18, Aus 1.77

Aus 190-7 after 19, Aus 1.70

Aus 201-7 .. 6 off the last ball .. Aus 1.68 ..

 

Looking at a big red .. Will hang on ..

 

In the interval,some discussion as to whether there is dew or not ..

Aus drift slightly, 1.70

 

Here's the reply :

 

Watson to open the bowling ..

India 2-0 after 1, Aus 1.56 .. Some good balls, and run rate climbs.

Some market love for India, with big swings on boundary.

Gonna stay in this, and basically hope.

Wkt - Sharma goes - India 12-1, after 1.5 .. Aus 1.5 after hitting 1.77

India 14-1 after 2, Aus 1.54

India 25-1 after 3, Aus 1.60. .. Thinking more and more, India will get this easily, or will be well short. Hopefully, it's the former.

India 39-1 after 4, Aus 1.95 .. Will reduce red .. Phew !

India 44-1 after 5, Aus 1.77

Wkt - Raina goes after a 6, 50-2 after 5.3 .. 1.50

Ind 53-2 after 6, Aus 1.48

India 59-2 after 7, Aus 1.43

India 74-2 after 8, Aus 1.73

Wkt - Dhawan 32 from 19, Ind 80-3, 1.52

India 83-3 after 9, Aus 1.52

India 91-3 after 10, Aus 1.53 . Think Aus are a lay at this price ..

India 100-3 after 11, Aus 1.67 .. Touched 1.85 after 6 1st ball

Wkt - Kohli goes on boundary, 100-4 after 11.1 Aus 1.38

India 106-4 after 12, Aus 1.35 .. India need 12 an over ..

India 115-4 after 13, Aus 1.43 .. Still got medium Red .. Need Dhoni magic.

6,6,4 .. India favs ..

India133-4 after 14, Aus 1.90 .. But huge swings each ball.

Small red now ..

India 146-4 after 15, India favs 1.75

India 153-4 after 16, India 1.75 .. 2 good overs from Doherty

India 173-4 after 17, India 1.24 .. 29 needed from 3 ..

India 187-4 after 18, India 1.05 .. 15 wanted from 12 .. Amazing game .. Played a joker ...

India 195-4 after 19,India 1.04 .. Need 7 from 6

 

India win ... Great game, with huge volatility ..

 

 

 

 

 

Posted with Blogsy

Test Match - Bangladesh v New Zealand - Chittagong

10 tests played here, of which 2 were draws.

I don't think NZ have ever lost to Bangladesh here, and pre-game, a lot of focus is on the rain,which may or may not come, pre-game/Day1, and towards the end of the Test.

Pitch looks fairly dry :

Bang 7.0

NZ 2.9

Draw 2.00 or so ... been all over the place.


NZ win the toss and bat :

They were going well, at 172-1, but finished the day on 280-5. Given the middle order, can be v soft, this isn't, yet, a winning score.

No rain yet ..

At COP  (Close of Play)

Bang 15

NZ  2.4

Draw 1.92


I have a biggish book against the draw, as, NZ have a decent bowling attack, and dont really respect many Bang batters.


.......

Day 2 .. NZ currently 404-9, half way into the day .. recovering from 340-9.

Draw spiked higher, and .. asleep .. did some good trading ..

Currently :

Bang 15

NZ 2.46

Draw 1.88

Still have book against draw, but, at v good avg.

..........

NZ last wicket partnership went on forever, and they finished on 469 -- which can be pretty demoralising for the fielding side.

Bangladesh were 8-2 at one stage, but recovered to 103-2 at the close, and the draw has predictably nose-dived.

Storms are still forecast for the last 2 days -- coming from the Sea, and if Bang score another 200 tomorrow, a draw does look v likely.

At the close :

Bang 25

NZ 2.76

Draw 1.69

Could well see, the draw shorten further.

On-line streams

Am currently watching 2 streams :

pokerstars.tv   which is showing Day 3 of the EPT Poker tour in London. I watched a lot of it yesterday, as I had 5% of a player ..

There were 800 entrants, who paid the £5500 to enter, making 87th place getting £9k, and 1st, a cool £500k.

Sadly, my horse went out, in 175th or so, but, it was interesting.

The quality of the stream, is phenomenally good .. I suppose its great advertising for Poker Stars, but, even so, it shows what can be done.

The 2nd stream, is of the Bangladesh v New Zealand test match, on Cricvid.com.

This stream, is 5 minutes behind live .. cricinfo, has ball-by-ball, miles in front, and the stream is almost useless, apart from showing pitch/weather condiitons.

Now, there are differences .. one stream is 100% legal, the other, might not be .. but, it shows how the interent has advanced, and how fast streams can be sent, at high quality, if the desire is there.


I have a book on the test match, which I will try and update .. busy times ..

Champions League T20 - Final - Mumbai Indians v Rajastan Royals

So, the finale or the competition.

Pre-toss, Mumbai 1.73 .. and they drift slightly, after losing the toss (batting), and Mitchell Johnson not playing.

Run-line 159 ..

A fascinating match-up, of fairytale endings, with Tendulkar for Mumbai, Dravid for Rajastan, playing, late in their respective careers.

Mumbai bowling a bit weak, but, lets see what they score :

Here we go :

Mumbai 6-0 after 1 over , Mumbai 1.79

Mumbai 8-0 after 2 overs, Mumbai 1.80

Have small position over 150 runs .. LBW for Sachin turned down ..

Mumbai 17-0 after 3 overs, Mumbai 1.76

Mumbai 27-0 after 4, Mumbai 1.67

Wkt - Sachin goes - 15 from 13 balls, 35-1 after 4.3 .. 1.67

Mumbai 40-1 after 5, Mumbai 1.70

Mumbai 46-1 after 6, Mumbai 1.66

Mumbai 51-1 after 7, Mumbai 1.71

Mumbai 54-1 after 8, Mumbai 1.74

Mumbai 57-1 after 9, Mumbai 1.80

Mumbai 60-1 after 10, Mumbai 1.85

Mumbai 75-1 after 11, Mumbai 1.64

Wkt - Smith 44 from 39, 77-2, Mumbai 1.84

Mumbai 82-2 after 12, Mumbai 1.76

Mumbai 98-2 after 13, Mumbai 1.51 .. looks an imposing score, on the way ..

Wkt - 104-3 after 13.4 .. Mumbai 1.53 Pollard comes in ..

Mumbai 104-3 after 14, Mumbai 1.56


///////////////////////


Sorry, had to go out, and didnt finish this :

Mumbai scored 202, which was a pretty good finish, from 152-1, after 17.1 ..

This was good for my run-lines bet, and it proved a few too many for RR, even thou, at times, RR threatened to get close or even win.

A great finale for Sachin .. and few could say, he doesnt deserve it .. during the tournament, he passed 50,000 runs, in all forms of cricket ..

General Grief ..

Am sitting in a hospital cafe, waiting for son to come out of surgery for an appendix. He was admitted the previous night, so, he should be well taken care of, but, it's still a worry.

It's a bit of a stressful time right now, as trying to sell my house, and estate agents want 7.5% comm, which, we have negotiated down to 5.5%. It's still too much, especially when a buyer wants to pay 10% less than our asking price, and want to include clauses which will cost us more.

Am not keen, and have told everyone so .. But, not sure anyone really cares.

Golf yesterday was a little better. Shot 101 at Dainfern, and 99 at Woodhill, so, 90 is back on the radar, just.

Realistically, I make myself a 10s chance, to ever do it, on a long course .. Gotta find a short course, and have a day, where everything clicks. Will keep trying.

It's gonna be a busy day, with some Ckt, and a key rugby game tonite .. S.Africa v New Zealand, so, will c how long the hospital takes ..

Posted with Blogsy

Swing in Progress ..

After the 2 disastrous rounds, shooting 114 and 116, I have made some radical changes.

Those games, made me depressed, and it was affecting my work life, so, had to do something.

I now have a longer back swing/follow-thru for my drives, coupled with a wider address. My irons, have a much narrower address, and less follow thru, but, it feels more controllable.

Am playing today and tomorrow, so, will post the results.


The poker has been going great. I came 5th in the Sunday $300 competition, and won the $100 last night.

This must be the 7 th or 8th time I have won in the last 3 mths, and people are starting to steer clear of me, (not raising my blinds), which, means I can steal even more !!

Its fun, when u get a decent stack, and can play with the table. I am developing some table talk .. there are 2 world-class talkers to learn from, in the usual games, and its a big help to your game.

Of the people I am now regularly final-tabling with, 4 have had scores of over $30k-$75k, and am looking forward to some WSOP events in November.

I have found a nice app, for calculating chip-chops at the end of tournaments .. Its called Poker Cruncher ICM, from the same stable as Poker Cruncher - an odds calculator, and its well worth the £2 or so.

I still dont do deals, until the last 3-4 people, but, it lets u realise, what your stack is worth, in relation to the final pay-outs.

Champions League T20 - Chennai Super Kings v Trinidad & Tobago

Trinidad need to win, or lose by a small margin, to qualify for semis.

Pre-toss : Chenna 1.46

T&T win the toss, and decide to field .. Chennai 1.50

Chennai run-line, 164

Have to respect Narine etc for T&T, but have backed Chennai at 1.50

Here we go :

Chennai 2-0 after 1, CSK 1.55

Wkt - Hussey goes, 1 from 2, 7-1 after 1.4 .. CSK 1.65

Chennai 8-1 after 2, CSK 1.66

Chennai 15-1 after 3, CSK 1.60  .. still with CSK

Chennai 25-1 after 4, CSK 1.54 ..

Chennai 36-1 after 5, CSK 1.48 .. looks big, if anything ..

Chennai 49-1 after 6, CSK 1.36 .. take small profit, but, think price still too big ..

Chennai 54-1 after 7, CSK 1.40 .. not getting many LB decisions .. 2 might have been given ..

Chennai 62-1 after 8, CSK 1.40 .. run line, 170 .. price 5 ticks too big, for me .

Wkt - Vijay - 27 from 24, 62-2 after 8.1 .. CSK 1.45  .. Dhoni walks in ..

Chennai 66-2 after 9, CSK 1.45 .. still with CSK

Chennai 72-2 after 10, CSK 1.45

Wkt - Raina goes, 38 from 29,

Chennai 78-3 after 11, CSK 1.55

Chennai 83-3 after 12, CSK 1.58 .. got small position, at current mk avg ..

Wkt - Bravo goes - 84-4 after 12.2 .. CSK 1.74 .. need some runs, but, ball staying low ..

Chennai 87-4 after 13, CSK 1.77 .. taking loss ..

Wkt - run-out Jadeja -- 88-4 after 13.4 .. T&T favs 1.82

Chennai 88-5 after 14,  T&T 1.91 ..

Chennai 93-5 after 15, T&T 1.84

Chennai 94-5 after 16, T&T 1.74

Wkt - Dhoni goes - CSK 102-6 after 16.5 .. T&T 1.56 .. tricky now ..

Chennai 102-6 after 17,  T&T 1.49

Chennai 106-6 after 18, T&T 1.44 ..laying T&T small ..

Wkt - Morkel misses a straight one .. 106-7 after 18.2 .. T&T 1.33

Wkt - run-out .. Chennai 116-8, after 19, CSK 1.36

Wkt - 117-9 after 19.2 .. T&T 1.36

Chennai finish on 118 .. lowest total, batting 1st, in Champions Trophy .. T&T 1.28


Heres the reply :

T&T 7-0 after 1, T&T 1.24 ..

T&T 12-0 after 2, T&T 1.25 .. price is sticky, as 2 chances ..

T&T 15-0 after 3, T&T 1.23 .. They look to win, but, fancy a twist .. Lendl Simmons badly out of form, and ball taking spin ..

T&T 28-0 after 4, T&T 1.13

T&T 34-0 after 5, T&T 1.14 .. doing it fairly easy, with no really wild shots ..

T&T 45-0 aftrer 6, T&T 1.07

T&T 48-0 after 7, T&T 1.09

T&T 57-0 after 8, T&T 1.05 .. poor bowling lines .. no real pressure .. looks cooked

T&T 60-0 after 9, T&T 1.05

T&T 79-0 after 10, T&T 1.01

Small loss.

Going to play poker

Champions League T20 - Mumbai Indians v Perth Scorchers

Key game, at least for Mumbai.

To qualify for semi-finals, they need to win by 34 balls (as they have won the toss, and will field).

Pre-toss, Mumbai 1.28 .. no change on toss .. Maxwell comes in for Johnson, to add batting power, but, if Scorchers get a decent total (unlikely), as Voges/Davis missing, their bowling will be really tested.

No position at the prices .. but, would be fairly keen to back Scorchers, if they score big.

Run Line - 142.

Here we go :

Scorchers 1-0 after 1, Mumbai 1.25

Ball turning, and holding .. wont be easy to score big .. run lines coming down ..

Scorchers 6-0 after 2, Mumbai 1.25

Scorchers 12-0 after 3, Mumbai 1.26 .. no position yet ..

Scorchers 22-0 after 4, Mumbai 1.29 .. gone long on runs, at 130 ..

Scorchers 28-0 after 5, Mumbai 1.32 .. 2 run-out chances already missed .. pressure ??

Scorchers 29-0 after 6, Mumbai 1.29 ..

Scorchers 35-0 after 7, Mumbai 1.26 .. seems v slow from Perth, no sixes yet ..

Scorchers 47-0 after 8, Mumbai 1.26 .. some runs at last !!

Easy stumping missed .. fielding errors, mounting ..

Scorchers 51-0 after 9, Mumbai 1.26 .. might be a small lay, as so many wkts in the bank ..

Wkt - 55-1 after 9.2 .. Mumbai 1.23

Wkt 56-2 after 9.5 .. Mumbai 1.17 .. bith Agar and Katich go .. mkt love for Mumbai, rewarded.

Scorchers 57-2 after 10, Mumbai 1.16

Scorchers 61-2 after 11, Mumbai 1.16 .. clear LBW turned down ..

Scorchers 72-2 after 12, Mumbai 1.19 .. no real interest here yet ..

Scorchers 84-2 after 13, Mumbai 1.23 .. poor fielding .. gives 5-7 runs there ..

Scorchers 95-2 after 14, Mumbai 1.33 .. 140 would be an interesting chase, in 15 overs ..

Scorchers 113-2 after 15, Mumbai 1.56 and in trouble .. run lines over 130, looking v good.

Small lay of Mumbai ..

Wkt - 114-3 after 15.3 .. Mumbai 1.39

Wkt 114-4 after 15.4 .. Mumbai 1.33 .. touch and go LBW .. Billy gives it ..

Scorchers 114-4 after 16, big over .. Mumbai 1.30

It definately seems, bowling full and straight, is best ..

Scorchers 120-4 after 17, Mumbai 1.31 .. looks low enough, .. but can Perth get 25 off last 3 ?

Scorchers 129-4 after 18, Mumbai 1.35

Wkt - 130-5 after 18.3 .. Mumbai 1.30

Scorchers 137-5 after 19, Mumbai 1.31 ..could be a big last over, for everyone ..

Wkt - 143-6 after 19.3 .. Mumbai 1.33

Scorchers finish on 149-6 .. not too bad, on a tricky pitch .. Mumbai 1.41 looks low to me ..

Need to score the runs, in 14.2 overs to qualify ..


Heres the reply :

Mumbai 11-0 after 1, Mumbai 1.25 .. have to lay this price ..

Wkt - Sachin goes .. Mumbai 16-1 after 2, Mumbai 1.33

Mumbai 21-1 after 3, Mumbai 1.32 .. small position against Mumbai ..

Wkt - Maxwell goes .. 34-2 after 4, Mumbai 1.35 .. if Perth get Smith quickly, this will be their game to win.

Mumbai 47-2 after 5, Mumbai 1.24 ..

Mumbai 66-2 after 6, Mumbai 1.07

Wkt - Smith goes for 48 off 25, 72-3 after 6.2 .. Mumbai 1.11 .. Pollard comes in ..

Mumbai 74-3 after 7, Mumbai 1.11 .. big ask now, to qualify .. 75 in 44 balls ..

Mumbai 86-3 after 8, Mumbai 1.04 ..

Mumbai 100-3 after 9, Mumbai 1.02 .. taking small loss ..

Mumbai 117-3 after 10, Game over .. Hard on the Volts .. but, they gonna miss out.


Small loss ..

Champions League T20 - Rajastan Royals v Otago Volts

Inriguing game .. given Royals home record, and the Volts flair for attacking batting.

Pre-toss, RR 1.80 .. they win the toss, and field.

Royals shorten to 1.72 .. Run Line, 158

Think 1.72 is a lay, and have a big position against RR to start.

Market moving back to 1.75/6 ,, and taking a little profit.

1.80 now .. a nice 8 tick move, for a good start.

Ok, here we go :

Otago 9-0 after 1, Otago favs .. yes favs .. 1.93 .. 31 tick profit, booked ..

Otago 10-0 after 2, RR favs, 1.89 .. flat ..

Otago 16-0 after 3, RR 1.92 .. flat ..

Wkt - 16-1 after 3.1 RR 1.71

Wkt - 20-2 .. Mcullum goes, RR 1.49 .. flat

Wkt - 20-3 .. wot an over, Shukla has 3 .. turned game on its head .. 1.32

Otago 20-3 after 4, RR 1.33 .. laying RR small

Wkt - 21-4 .. wow, looks almost game over .. RR 1.19

Otago 22-4 after 5, RR 1.21

Otago 29-4 after 6, RR 1.26

Otago 32-4 after 7, RR 1.23 .. expected runs now 130, still against RR

Otago 40-4 after 8, RR 1.26

Otago 48-4 after 9, RR 1.27

Otago 50-4 after 10, RR 1.26 .. still against RR, (small)

Otago 66-4 after 11, RR 1.38 .. taking profit on 1.31 lay .. flat ..

Otago 74-4 after 12, RR 1.39 .. flat

Wkt - 74-5 after 12.2 RR 1.26

Otago 80-5 after 13, RR 1.28

Wkt - 81-6 after 13.3, RR 1.15

Otago 81-6 after 14, RR 1.13 .. flat

Otago 89-6 after 15, RR 1.15 .. flat

Otago 97-6 after 16, RR 1.19 .. flat, but long on runs over 130

Otago 114-6 after 17, RR 1.30 .. good for the runs ..

Otago 120-6 after 18, RR 1.25 .. flat

Wkt - 120-7 after 18.2, RR 1.21

Otago 126-7 after 19, RR 1.22

Tricky to know if Otago are still trying to win the game, or, get enuf score, so Mumbai have harder task to qualify, if front of them ..

Otago finish on 139-7, RR 1.26

It doesnt look enough, but, we shall see.


Heres the reply :

RR 15-0 after 1, RR 1.11

RR 22-0 after 2, RR 1.10 .. flat ..

RR 31-0 after 3, RR 1.07

RR 33-0 after 4, RR 1.08 .. flat ..

RR 39-0 after 5, RR 1.08 ..

RR 43-0 after 6, RR 1.09 ..

Wkt - 49-1 after 6.4 .. Dravid goes, 10 from 17, RR 1.11

RR 49-1 after 7, RR 1.12

RR 53-1 after 8, RR 1.13 .. They should win, but, price doesnt appeal .. need 87 from 72

RR 62-1 after 9, RR 1.09

Wkt - 67-2, after 9.3 .. RR 1.13

Watson comes in to bat .. if they get him quickly, this might be interesting ..

RR 67-2 after 10, RR 1.13

Otago need to keep the runs down, to keep the game fairly close, even if they lose ..

RR 69-2 after 11, RR 1.17

Wkt - Watson goes !! RR 71-3 after 11.3 .. RR 1.40 .. laid chunks at 1.08, but bought it back 1.09 ..sigh,
but got nice book.

RR 72-3 after 12, RR 1.40 .. tempted to lay RR if anything .. but, flat .. 9 an over wanted.

Wkt - RR 72-4, Binny goes for 1, RR 1.70 .. game on ..

RR 75-4 after 13, RR 1.61 .. one more wkt, and this flips ..flat ..

RR 80-4 after 14, RR 1.67 ..

RR 93-4 after 15, RR 1.42 .. good game ..

RR 106-4 after 16, RR 1.18 .. looks over now ..

Wkt - 116-5, last ball of the over .. Rahane 52 from 47 ..

RR 116-5 after 17, RR 1.19  .. Need 24 from 18

RR 130-5 after 18, RR 1.01 .. Just 10 needed from 12 balls .. flat, havent done much 2nd inngs.

Wkt - 130-6 after 18.2 .. RR 1.07

RR 138-6 after 19, RR 1.01 .. 2 needed to win ..

RR win  .. Otago kept it quite close, and for a while, had a chance to actually win, after a low total.


Won a few quid.