3rd Test - S.Africa v England - Wanderers

England lead the 4 match series, 1-0, after the // trying to think of the right word // , for a Test, which saw Ben Stokes score a double hundred, in super quick time, and Amla / Bavuma also creating headlines.

Lost in the plot, were a Test debut for Morris, which saw him both, at the best of times/worst of times.

Anyway ..

Onto one of my favourite Test grounds .. The Wanderers .. not least, cos its v possible to get later afternoon Thunderstorms there :

Current weather forecast :

Current betting :

SA 2.88 .. Steyn out .. been as low as 2..4

Eng 3.3

Draw 2.96


I have a big position, for one of the teams, and against Draw.

Remember being at the fixture, 6 yrs ago .. (how time flies), and Morkel/Steyn had Eng in all sorts of bother, and S.Africa won by a distance. That was 2010 ..

Nov 1999, Donald/Pollock had England 4-2 .. and Eng 122 All-out. S.Africa won by a distance.

Jan 2005, Eng .. a game I remember v well, Eng scored 411 1st dig, and S.Africa got 417. After Eng scored another 332 before declaring .. people thght it would be a draw, but Hoggard got some key wkts late, in the gloom, and Eng got up to win.



Wanderers is a result wkt .. Draw backers, need a lot of wet stuff.


///

Result .. Game over in 3 days ..

All 3 options, traded sub 2.3 ..

Another one left without me ...

I missed my flight .. Which isn't a new thing, but, it's only Jan 6, and the year is young.

Last year, I missed 21 flights .. Including one which I had somehow double-booked myself on .. Not my finest hour.

I say 21, it might easily have been 41, I sorta stop counting, like a gambler stops acknowledging losing poker sessions, preferring to let them slide.

I can't deny, this is a major leak ..

As this is confession time, I also missed about 30 pre-booked, non-changeable trains, which, oddly, I find more irritating than the planes .. 

I paid 3 accident excesses, on hired cars, and had to rip-up about £100, to a car owner, who I had backed into, and wanted to go to the police .. (The Ckt game started in 45 mins, and that wasn't going to happen)... (The scratch was minuscule .. I got severely fucked-over)

My new house build, over-ran by about 12 mths, and £50k .. If I am lucky, I also stop counting on this one - it got too depressing.

There is a pattern here .. 

Having said all the above, last yr was fantastic .. Not least, cos I shot regular sub 90's ... Nothing else really matters.

This yr, I will try miss only 10 planes, 10 trains, flatten 1 excess.

If I make only 1 out of 3, and shoot a 85 or better somewhere, I will be estatic.

S.African cricket and other stuff

As I write this, Day 2 of the Cape Town test has ended, and SA are looking to save the game, chasing the 629/6, Eng set-up in quick fashion.

Since the last test, I have learnt a fair bit, about the quota/target system, S.Africa use, and its interesting.

S.Africa itself, is in transition .. 20 odd years, since the ANC came to power. There are still some 5m white people here, but, there are at least 25-30m+ other races, and .. logically, its these people who will be sitting in the stands, in 10 yrs time.

Thus, S.African sports need to find 'Non-white, role models', who will both help sport to flourish, and encourage a new breed of spectator, to the stadia.

I can now understand, why, selectors have their hands tied by government, and its just tough tacky, that there will be some hard times, before the new super-stars are found.

As for the Test itself : The knock by Ben Stokes, was as good a knock I have seen, since KP rescued, England at Headingley. He deserves to be on the winning side. 

I think at 2.5, England are worth a bet.

// Good news, Bad news .. England started days play at about 2.4, having been down to 2.3. They finished on 11 .. so, basically, a bust.

!st Test - General thoughts

Here are some overall thoughts, which, may or may not, be relevent.

The S.African team 'color' quota, gives the selectors many headaches. I wouldnt play, Duminy or Bavuma. Van Zyl is being played in the wrong spot, because, of selection issues.

Many S.African players, have mental scaring, from India. Elgar, looked much better. Du Plessis, gets one last chance, or is dropped for Van Zyl.

ABd is pure class. Steyn  got the key wkts on Day 1, and Eng would have scored 50-100 more, if he hadnt played. Morkel bowled v good, Piedt got a 5 for, and seems better than Tahir.

The pitch was 6-8 mph slower than usual. Which didnt help SA bowlers .. but, also didnt really help Eng.

S.Africa fielded poorly, Amla is not a captain .. he is anonymous on the field, and has poor form to contend with, let alone all the media, that he is not a natural for.

Eng played v well, and look on the up. With Anderson back, probably for Woakes, I would be happy to back them.

My S.African team for CT would be :

Elgar
Cook
Amla
Abd
De Cock
Du Plessis
Rouseau
Abbott
Piedt
Rabada
Morkel

But, that doesnt fit the quota .. so, wont happen.

Betting markets loved S.Africa, for most of Days 1 -3, then, sorta woke up.

I hope they love them again in CT .. for me, they are a maximum punish (at wrong odds).


Thx for all the postive feedback on twitter and her. Its nice, but, as a v wise old bookie once
told me, 'There no praise like that u can put in your back pocket'.

Its true .. manage your own positions, and pay your own bills. Nothing else matters.

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 4 Trading

Book brought forward :

SA -£2900

Eng +£7200

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6200

Ok, what have we seen so far ?

IMHO, a very well disciplined England team, who batted ok, and bowled with great lines/fielded well, and generally, played pretty good.

A ragged S.African team, who, clearly rely too much, on 2-4 individuals, who fielded poorly, and may be on a downward curve.

England lead by 261, with 7 wkts left. I am sure Cook will be cautious, but expect a declaration, maybe 40 mins before Tea .. setting S.africa 400+.

Trading wise, the first 3 hrs will probably be pretty dull - unless England really bat quick, or S.Africa get a heap of wkts.

Current Prices

S.Africa 15

England 1.47

Draw 3.9

I have no wish to get involved, but, would back the Draw at bigger.


Oh, and BTW, think the Barmy Army are well below par .. v few songs .. they need to up their game a bit.

In the 4 hrs before the game, the Eng price has gone from 1.47, to 1.42 and back to 1.49.

Someone, taking it for a walk ...

Eng lose 2 wkts .. 197-5, lead by 286.

SA 8.6

Eng 1.47

Draw 4.8


New ball due in 2 overs .. if they take it , as this one is reversing. England looking to get on with it.

Some of these comments never showed 'live' .. dunno why.

Trade - lay 3000/750 draw 

Wkt - Taylor - Eng 224-6 

SA 5.5

Eng 1.47

Draw 7.4

Trade - back draw 3000/460



Eng 242-6 .. lead by 330

Eng crash to 1.37 ?

Trade - lay Eng 1750/5000

Someone got the muchies fir Eng 1.33 ?? .. shuda laid this price.

lead 350-6

15 mins to lunch

SA 12

Eng 1.37

Draw 5.1

Wkt - on review - Ali - Eng 361-7 ..net.

SA 8.6

Eng 1.37

Draw 6

Radio _2000 commemtator says dec imminent .. expletives required .. pick your own.

Lunch

book

SA +£2390

Eng +£5740

Draw +£10900

Equity +£6400

Will look to get back on Eng, but think price wrong.

Eng lead 404-8

SA 16

Eng 1.36

Draw 4.8

Wkt - Broad 404-9

SA 12

Eng 1.35

Draw 5.3


Eng 416 all out ..net.

SA 9.4

Eng 1.35

Draw 6.6

370 in a losing cause been scored here before, batting last.

SA need a good start etc .. not totally happy with my book, but, cant do much, st these prices.

SA 2-0

Saa 6.4
Eng 1.5!!
Draw 5.7

Trade back Eng 2000-4000


Solid start - SA 26-0 .. which is promising for them going forward, as Van Zyl could easily have been a basket case.

SA 5

Eng 1.59

Draw 5.6

Mkt going into meltdown

SA 49-0

SA 3.55

Eng 1.66

Draw 7

hmm ... The rapid start, with all the time available, has some traders v worried.

Wkt - Van zyl bowled for 33 - SA 53-1

SA 5.3

Eng 1.42

Draw 8.4


Tea - SA 65-1 .. need 351 more, in 4 sessions .. 120 overs or so.

SA 5

Eng 1.45

Draw 8.8

Interesting game .. and fair play to Van Zyl , who played v positively.

Book.

SA + £3350

Eng +£6700

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6000

Sa 82-1 .. mkt will get v twitchy, if Amla gets to 30 odd not out .. presently on 12

SA 3.4 .. they couldmeasily be odds on tomite ..

Eng 1.66

Draw 12  friendless .. rightly

Its 3.20 local .. play till 5.00 .. 30 more overs apprix .. they could be 200-? at close ..


Fllodlights coming on .. but not dark ..

Wicket - Amla chases one .. poor shot .. 85-2

SA 5.6

Eng 1.4

Draw 7.8

Wkt -Elgar goes, then a brief shower .. all hell let loose

cant keep up, 93-3

SA 12

Eng 1.28

Draw 7

Getting dark, but brighter in distance .. take your pick.

Drinks .. 19 overs left in day, but, not likely to see them all.

SA 113-3 .. need 290 more ..

all,about ABd and Du plessis ..

SA 7.6

Eng 1.31

Draw 9.2

looks right ..

SA 120-3 .. v little intent from SA .. blockathon.

batters look solid .. draw at 6.0 has some appeal.


Wicket - du plessis with 3 overs to close - SA 136/4

Massive Wkt, with, as it turns out, just 3 balls or so, left in the day.

SA 16

Eng 1.21

Draw 8

Abd is absolute class, but cant fo it by himself.

Steyn comes in as night watchman

Final Book :

SA + £3350

Eng +£6700

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6000

I will leave it like this. I dont feel I traded optimally today, there were some clear opportunities I didnt take .. and u could argue, I should have just left my position, as it was, on Day 1.

Still .. 

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 3 Trading

Prices at COP  (Close of Play)

SA 2.2

Eng 2.84

Draw 5.0

My Book :

S.Africa -£800

England +£14200

Draw -£12000

Equity -- +£2200

Lets think about this :  S.Africa are 166 behind, with 6 wkts left. Run lines make them likely to get 310. 

There are 298 overs left in game, time allowing. Weather seems ok.

If Eng go back in to bat, say, an hr after lunch, their run line will prob be about 275 (maybe less).

Its clear, Draw at 5.0 is barking, but so, is SA at 2.2.

If I wasn't constraining my exposure to £20k, I would  lay another chunk of the draw.

I make the betting, something like :

S.Africa  2.5

England 2.4

Draw 8,0

So, have not changed the basic flavour of my book, if anything, added to Eng.

Some reports that both Abd and Steyn are considering retiring from Test ckt. This cant help team morale .. the team is forced to field players of 'color' - who will need time.

Win or Lose this Test, I think S.Africa are on a downward curve,  and an auto lay, going forward.

6am Local .. Day 3

I wrote that last night, as a draft. And sure enuf, mkt has moved.

Mkt now :

S.Africa 2.36

England 2.50

Draw 5.7

At these new prices, current equity in book, £3200

Just before play starts, Eng go fav - as they have hit my tissue price :


Trade - Lay Eng 5000/3500


Wkt - Bavuma 2nd ball of day

SA 2.56

Eng 2.00

Draw 8


Trade - back draw 6000/1000

Wkt - Duminy 152-6

Sa 3.1

Eng 1.8

Draw 8

Wkt - Abbot 156-7

SA 3

Eng 1.72

Draw 9.4

All good   --  at this stage, I thought it was v possible SA could totally collapse, and was happy to sit on my book.


Drinks - SA 178-7 .. these last 3 wkts/runs, will be v important.

SA 3.45

Eng1.69

Draw 8.2

Trade - lay eng 1000-1400 .. just tidying book up

current book

SA win +£3100

Eng win +£7200

Draw lose -£1100

Book equity £3700

Elgar gets 100 .. well played - which surprised me, as I havent been a fan .. may have to re-rate him.



SA 200-7

SA 2.58

Eng 2.1

Draw 7.2

SA still 100 behind, its clear, they need another 50 runs minimum .. or batting last, they will be a deep hole.


Wicket - Steyn SA 210-8

SA 2.84

Eng 1.81

Draw 9

SA 214 all out

Eng lead by 89 .. which is pretty big.

Can see eng being all out for 250, so, its whether u believe SA can score 350 or so, batting last.

SA 3.3

Eng 1.64

Draw 11  ?????  ... I should have backed this, but did nothing .. poor on my part.

Equity in book, £5200

England run line about 275 .. domestic games, have seen decent scores batting last .. so.
we shall see .. would look to lay Eng sub 1.4 .. but for now sitting on unchanged book.

Eng 12-0 .. Steyn goes off .. maybe shoulder .. had groin issues, in leadup to game.

SA .6

Eng 1.59

Draw 5.1

Wkt - Cook lbw - Eng 13-1 lead by 102

SA 3.4

Eng 1.75

Draw 7.2 (which has gone as low as 5.2)

Trade - back draw 6000/1000

Compton came in for Cook .. and, hes not perceived as a fast scorer. Maybe, the draw is an auto-back, when he comes in.


Steyn back after shoulder scan .. SA keeping Eng scoring rate slow .. which may aid draw price.

Just tinkering now, my work looks done here.

(I largely intended to now stay out, or work on a 2nd Book,, but just as I thought I was out, they dragged me back in)


Drinks eng 28-1 .. lead 117 - pitch doing lots for the spinners.

SA 3.55

Eng 1.7

Draw 7.2

Tea - Eng 58-2 .. leaad by 147 .. prob unlucky not to take more wkts.

Book now :

SA win +£2100

Eng win +£6200

Draw lose -£1100

Book equity £4900



SA 3.7

Eng 1.68

Draw 7

Steyn came and went for a shoulder scan .. bowled about 5 overs, and looks like he has a problem. Came back later, so, might be able to bowl tomorrow .. I would rest him, SA need him badly.





Drinks final session

Eng 111-2 lead by 200

SA 10

Eng 1.5

Draw 4.1


10 overs left in day, 245 in front-3

Eng 1.5 looks too big to me - but will resist temptation ..

The market then went a bit crazy offering some juicy prices :

Trade -lay 15000-2000 SA wtf ???

Trade -back 10000-1000 SA ???

Almost nothing happened .. Draw shot out to 5.3, from 4.0 or so .. should have had £5k on this, but didnt.

COP

Eng lead by 261-3.

Steyn injured.

2 days left ..

SA 13.5

Eng 1.49

Draw 3.85

A lot will depend how long Eng bat for .. probably a bit too long, but, 3.85 is low enough.

Book :

SA -£2900

Eng +£7200

Draw +£5900

Equity +£6200

Am happy with the book .. and I have some great trading strategies lined up for future Tests.

///
play starts in v humid conditions .. No Steyn, wont play anymore this game.

wkt - Root - Eng 193-4 .. lead by 286 .. mkt, rightly , doesnt care.

1st Test - S.Africa v England - Durban - Day 2 Trading

Its not much fun, when u compose posts, and the app u are using finds a way to either lose them or garble them so badly, they are unreadable.

That happened too many times yesterday, and ... alrhou I badly needed sleep last night, spent a few hrs, looking for an alternative solution. I sorta found one, but, it is limited .. in that I cant post pictures .. thou, I can obviously add them after play, at a laptop.  (May have found a way to post some pics .. amazing what u learn, when in need)

So, this is an interim solution. Sorry if it looks bad.

Play starts early today, trying to make up, the 25 overs lost from Day 1.

The weather forecast for the rest of the test is good, and thou it does get gloomy after Tea, am hopeful the overs can be made up.

Eng finished on 179-4, after being inserted on a tricky pitch. The run lines have England making about 340 .. which suggests there will be regular wkts.

Overnight, the prices haven't moved too much :

S.Africa 2.6

England 4.1

Draw 2.7

My current book .

S.Africa -£3400

England +£24000

Draw -£12000

Equity +£100

This is a super volatile position, but, apart from wanting to lay more draw, am happy with it.

I should be able to update the blog during breaks.

//

Sun burning off all the cloud - shud be a batting day. May try and lay S.Africa early, after maybe 5 overs, if no wkt.

Will be interesting to see how the mkt views a decent start by Eng .. the draw may shorten.

Stokes plays an aggressive shot, and puts one in the air. You can argue its a poor shot, but, its the way he gets on with it.

Eng 196-5

S.Africa 2.14

England 4.5

Draw 3.1

Mkt loves S.Afr

Trade --.. laid 3100/3000 .. new ball due in 8 overs, but, think price wrong.

Drinks Eng 232-5

S.Africa 2.56

England  3.75

Draw 2.82

Trade -- Lay 5500/2000 Eng to take some profit/reduce book exposure

//

Wkt --Compton goes - Eng 247-6

SA 2.32

Eng 4.1

Draw 3

will updates positions at lunch

253-7

SA 1.87

Eng 4.6

Draw 3.7

253-8

SA 1.66

Eng 5.5

Draw 4.4

Good last stand by Broad and Finn .. Eng finish just over 300, slightly higher than avg 1st inngs score.

At the inngs change,

S.Africa 1.73

England  4.6

Draw 4.7

S.Africa -£4700

England £21600

Draw -£12000

Equity -£250

At one stage, equity was positive, for over a grand .. so, maybe shuda cuda.

England blow during change to 5.7, S.africa, which the mkt has just lived all game, in to 1.61. This was just crazy .. in hindsight, these were just mistakes, and should have been punished.

Run line for s.africa about 380.

This is not a typical test for durban, and am a bit confused. cant bail on eng at this price, would rather back it.



Will sit tight, and cross fingers/ do my money.


Lunch still going on, and prices bouning from a low on SA of 1.6 to 1.75 now.
Eng now 4.3 .. fuck all has happened.


SA 1.77

Eng 4.3

Draw 4.8


Wkt   --  Van Zyl leaves one, and SA 0-1

SA 1.98

Eng 3.2

Draw 5

Trade - Lay 4400/2000 Eng

Wkt -- Amla goes, SA 14-2

Commentators say SA in all sorts of trouble, but, mkt still sees them as favs.

SA 2.2

Eng 2.78

Draw 5.4

Trade - Back SA 2400/2000


SA 22-2

Trade - lay Eng 4300/2000

Drinks - equity in book over 2k, but not cashing in

Devilliers given not out, by 3rd umpire .. big swing in equity for book, but, v hard for 3rd upire to give.

Tea S.Africa 55-2

S.Africa 1.82

England 4.2

Draw 4:5

book

S.Africa -£300

England +£15200

draw -£12000

Equity £550

Wkt -- Broad finally gets ABd .. now 8 from 11, times he has taken his wkt.

SA 103-3

SA 1.94

Eng 3.45

Draw 5

Drinks .. equity back to 1700 .. think Eng big price, and u have to lay S.Africa

Trade - Lay 4000/4000 SA

Wkt -- Du Plessis - 113-4


SA 2.26

Eng 2.4

Draw 6.6

Trade  -- Lay 5000/3500 Eng .. just to lock in profit ...

COP

SA 137-4 .. 166 behind .. in 152 overs, which I dont really understand .. should be 180 overs in 2 days, so, we are still down 28 overs .. Early start tomorrow, but still .. why not play on tonite ?

SA 2.2

Eng 2.84

Draw 5.0

My Book :

S.Africa -£800

England +£14200

Draw -£12000

Equity -- +£2200


So, can book decent profits, but, not sure I want to ... will think about it.