Its been a while since the English were here .. 2011 I think, when the local currency was a tad stronger (11 Rand to the Pound .. its now 22 ... how times flies).
Its also been a while since I have done a trading thread .. so, although I wont update the thread each session, I will post my positions, up until at least end Day 4.
A week ago, some traders priced up S.Africa as strong 2.1 favs. I have eaten all of this, and my present book, is something like :
S.Africa -£7000 (laid 2.2 avg)
Eng + £5500 (backed 3.5 avg)
Draw +£5700 backed 3.7 avg)
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.44 (Big driffy .. Steyn prob plays, but Philander out)
Eng 3.2
Draw 3.65
Current Equity
+ £350 (I never knew, how to calculate this.. but, someone kindly told me)
Its current position/Current price .. total all 3 outcomes.
So, 7000/2.44 = -2943, 5500/3.2 = 1719, 5700/3.65 =1524. (-2943+1719+1524=350)
I think the current prices are better, but, would still have S.Africa bigger, and the draw shorter.
Above posted, 5 days before game.
Some recent Test 'form' :
In Tests since 1994 : S.Africa v England stats courtesy of S.Rajesh (cricinfo) @rajeshstats
In South Africa .. 19 tests, SA won 5, Eng won 4, Draws 10
In England .. 20 tests, SA won 8, Eng won 6, Draws 6
Total .. 39 tests, SA won 13, Eng won 10, Drawn 16
Playing at home, there tends to be results .. just 6 draws, in the last 47 tests in S.Africa (thou that number maybe looks low, as SA played some real rubbish opponents.
//////
Eng won the warm-up game ina a canter, and it doesnt look like any of those S.African 'possibles' will get the nod for the 1st 2 Tests, at least.
Some drizzle today in Durban .. the draw went 3.8, and I added to my position/backed Eng.
Currently, v similar to last night :
S.Africa -£8100
Eng + £7400
Draw +£5100
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.28 .. went to 2.5 during the day.
Eng 3.3
Draw 3.55
Current Equity
+ £300
//// - Wee hrs, Wednesday morning .. Appears Anderson Doubtful
So, this is not good, at least for my position.
S,Africa 2.22 in a thin mkt
England 3.75
Draw 3.45
Current Equity
-£300
The question is now, whether to panic .. or at least, would like to panic, as the mkt wont let u do much, at 3 am.
Will wait ..
////
Test starts on Sat .. hope for some early disruptions .. thou, u should be aware, the last 8 tests at the ground have produced results, and .. in general, there are less draws in S.Africa, than other major centres. - Centurion and Johannesburg have only had 1 draw each, out of 19 Tests in the last 10 yrs.
Source : Cricinfo
The pitch looks pretty benign ..
Source : bbctms twitter
On the strength of the above, plus some belief the start will see some poor weather, I added to my draw bias.
S.Africa -£10800
Eng + £9000
Draw +£8000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.42 .. interesting move, and might highlight weakness during test
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.3
Current Equity
+ £500
This is probably as big an exposure I will trade, pre-game.
//
Evening - Test starts in 57 hrs :
In previous trading threads, I have posted pics of my positions on various exchanges.
This yr, its gonna be harder, as I am trying to reduce my use of Betfair .. and using more external sources.
I have 5 main outlets .. and I may decide or not, to picturise my positions. It will be v time consuming to take pics of everywhere .. thou, I understand, the pics add legitimacy.
I will mull over it, but, right now, dont hold your breath.
What makes it harder, is there are exchange biases .. I have no doubt, Betdaq will be biased towards England, and against the draw. Matchbook will generally follow Betfair. Indian mkts, dont exist, so, I wont be using those, either.
I should also add, my positions are v v fluid. I have a tissue (prices), which I work to .. when they get to these, I cut-back or extend my position. I wont flip excessively, but, dont be surprised, if my book come Day 4, is v dissimilar to todays. I will try to explain my rationale as the Test goes along, but, I do a deal of market making .. and its not always easy to post etc.
Anyone who follows these positions, for their own book, are naive/stupid.
Based on the ground stats, the amount time that can be made up etc (thou bad light may curtail this), my percieved weakness of the S.African batting .. I would expect my final book to be v lopsided against S.Africa, and maybe 75/25 in fav of Eng, over the draw. But, I have no set-in-stone convictions.
My bank for the game, is £20k.
Some local sports books in S.Africa have decent arbs, (no Tax on wins), but, will limit u pretty quick, unless u have a losing history. A lot of work, but, maybe worth it.
////
Evening, 24th
Anderson confirmed out.
Weather picture. arguably, improved.
I have tinkered a bit, but, nothing really dramatic. I might cut-back my S.African exposure by 2k or so, but, not at 2.30.
S.Africa -£8800
Eng + £7700
Draw +£6000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.3 ..
Eng 3.5
Draw 3.5
Current Equity
+ £580
////
Ahem, this is a stuff-up. The Current Equity figs are wrong ..
Current equity is + 110
///
Xmas morning, and its raining in Dueban, albeit lightly. This was expected, so a little surprised to see the draw crash thru 2.8.
Morning of Day 1 looks like being disrupted, but, I cant have these prices, and have re-arranged some deckchairs..
S.Africa -£7800
Eng + £8800
Draw +£4000
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.52 .. touched 2.6x ??
Eng 4.0 .. v weak ..
Draw 2.74
Current Equity
+ £560 .. This fig is right, my excel calc, was adding in a rogue figure.
England posted picture from Kingsmead . doesnt seem so bad :
.
I am laying Draw at 2.9 .. this price is just wrong (IMHO), will make it level.
Just laid some 2.7 Draw .. now a loser, for me, but, good equity in book.
Odd tinge of green in the pitch .. happy to lay draw at these levels, thou nagging worry, who is taking these prices ??
Root has recovered from stomach illness, and will play.
Woakes confirmed as replacement for Anderson.
Almost time for Xmas dinner .. so, as will likely not post before Midnite, lets tie things off.
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.46
Eng 4.0
Draw 2.88
Current Equity + £480
Am tempted to lay 2.9 draw, for Bigs, but, its Xmas.
The price makes little sense, compared to previous evenings, and expect it to meander back to above 3.3.
I have some orders left open, in various places.
///
Xmas Day eve ..
Well, whoda thght it. Draw price corrected :
Rain may be around before play starts, but, shouldnt last too long. I would have draw 3.75+
Current Book :
S.Africa -£5400
Eng +£11000
Draw -£300
Current prices ;
S.Africa 2.32
Eng 3.65
Draw 3.3
Current Equity + £640
Happy with balance of book, thou, could have laid more draw, at 2.7 this morning.
