3rd Day - S.Africa v Australia - Centurion

Hard to say it's overcast, as when the sun comes thru, it's v strong, but cloud buildup, may be indicative of stuff to come later.

That's not exact, but, it's the best anyone can do, in this highly volatile weather area.

S.Africa need a solid 1st hr .. Maybe the clouds will help Aus bowlers .., for now, they 250 behind, 4 wkts left, in 1st dig.

 

Johnson strikes quickly .. He really is, the best around ..

S.Africa 148-7 .. Still 250 behind.

S.Africa 7.2

Aus 1.45

Draw 5.7

 

Hmm ..a sorry, but, I must say, not unexpected take to tell.

S.Africa fold, tamely to 206 all out .. So Aus in front, by 192 .. Which looks massive.

75 overs left in the day, a total of 255 overs, left in the game.

If Aus score .. Even 200, S.Africa would have to chase a total, which looks unlikely.

S.Africa have fragile batters .. No one admits it .. But, when Amla is off form, and Kallis now gone, I wouldn't trust many of them, to score against a top quality attack.

Anyway ..

S.Africa 8.2

Aus 1.36

Draw 6.6

For me, draw should be bigger than S.Africa.

 

S.Africa get an early stick .. Hope, Joanna !!

Lunch Aus 18-1 .. Lead by 209 .. Cloud thinning if anything .. U wonder how any Clarke would set S.Africa .. 500 ? In 5 sessions ?

Surely .. Hopefully, not more.

 

Tea - S.Africa getting beaten up .. Dropped catches/sloppy fielding, but Warner batting beutifully (and quickly).

Aus 147-1 .. Lead by 338 .. 37 overs left today, cloud thin .. No rain.

S.Africa 25

Aus 1.30

Draw 5.2

 

I like Aus

 

After Tea, more of the same really .. Warner is super, and Doolan is growing in confidence ..

30 overs left.. Aus 372-1, net.

Prices pretty much static .. Not sure, how S.Africa can win .. But, plenty of time, I suppose.

Highest 4th inngs chase here .. 251 ...

 

 

 

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Day 2 - S.Africa v Australia - Centurion

Some rain has now appeared likely, towards the end of Day 2 and 3.

It's hot as anything, so, it's to be expected in this area .. Some of the thunderstorms, can be intense.

Not sure how much. The game is going to move, till Tea, unless S.Africa really make some quick inroads. It looks like Aus will score 450, and it will be up to the S.African batters, to pull he bowlers out of a hole ( for a change ).

Prices look right .. Thou, would have to lay Aus, at much shorter.

 

Morkel gone off a scan on shoulder .. Pressure on other bowlers.

On drinks, Smith goes, for a well deserved 100.

Aus 331-5

S.Africa 6.2

Aus 2.44

Draw 2.34

 

Wow .. Haddin comes in, attempts a slog to leg, and goes LBW ..

Aus 332-6

S.Africa 4.2

Aus 2.5

Draw 2.68

 

Aus 352-7

S.Africa fighting back v well ..

S.Africa 4.00

Aus 2.42

Draw 3.0

 

Lunch Aus get to 374-7 .. Another 60 could be vital.

 

After lunch, Aus don't do much, ans S.Africa wrap them up, for 397 ..

A good fight back today .. 6 wkts, for 100 runs.

S.Africa 3.85

Aus 2.48

Draw 2.86

 

Good start for S.Africa, but, Johnson gets smith with a well directed bouncer ..

S.Africa 11-1

S.Africa 4.1

Aus 2.42

Draw 3.15

 

Troubles for S.Africa .. 3 down, for not many

 

23-3

S.Africa 6.0

Aus 1.67

Draw 4.2

 

All Johnson, right now ..

 

Tea - S.Africa under the cosh - 63-4 .. 334 behind.

39 overs left in the day, cloud getting thicker, but, don't think it will rain .. Until almost close of play, if at all.

Aus have a v special bowler in Mitchell Johnson .. The extra pace he extracts, is a huge difference.

Big ask, for ABDev and Duminy now .. They need a 100 stand ..

S.Africa 5.7

Aus 1.7

Draw 3.85

 

Duminy falls .. S.Africa 110-5

S.Africa 5.5

Aus 1.64

Draw 4.5

 

Drinks .. Hot out there ..

Enjoyed Andrew Simmons radio comm .. Different gravy to the dross of SABC muppets.

S.Africa 121-5

S.Africa 6.0

Aus 1.68

Draw 4.3

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1st Test - S.Africa v Australia - Centurion

Any though of rain ( there was some, 10 days ago, has melted in the sweltering sun, and this looks a game, destinnedt I have a lot of play time)

Games between these two sides, rarely end in a draw, and it's a mouth-watering contest.

Pre-toss

S.Africa 2.08

Australia 3.05

Draw 5.0

 

 

S.Africa win toss and decide to field.

 

S.Africa 2.02

Australia 3.25

Draw 4.8

Run line forAus, about 310

 

Warner goes .. Steyn strikes !!

 

Aus 15-1

S.Africa 1.96

Aus 3.4

Draw 5.2

Morkel gets a wkt in his first over ..

 

Aus 24-2

S.Africa 1.73

Aus 3.65

Draw 6.2

 

Aus recover a bit .. Pitch not as hard, as maybe expected, thou run line, still fairly low, at about 285

Drinks Aus 50-2

S.Africa 2.02

Aus 3.0

Draw 5.6

 

Aus building, albeit v slowly .. 72-2 ...

And then Doolan gives it away, and exposes Clarke to a tricky 15 mins before lunch.

Aus 72-3

S.Africa 1.84

Aus 3.6

Draw 5.5

Aus make it thru .. To lunch .. Aus 80-3 ..

Not sure what to make of it .. S.Africa bowled some v good lines, and u could argue, Aus tossed away, at least 1 wkt.

I sorta sense, Aus could score 350, but, could also score 250.

No real position change, from opening grief, having backed draw.

 

S.Africa 1.90

Aus 3.3

Draw 5.6

 

Clarke gets suckered into a pull .. 98-4

 

S.Africa 1.67

Aus 3.65

Draw 7.2

 

Aus return to a position they often found themselves in, re Eng. can they repeat ?

 

Seems v slow going after lunch ..

Drinks Aus 113-4

 

S.Africa 1.74

Aus 3.6

Draw 6.6

 

Pace picking up, as Smith and Marsh settle in, on a pitch, which seems to be getting easier to bat on.

Tea - Aus 175-4 .. U could argue, Aus getting the better of it.

S.Africa 2.32

Aus 3.00

Draw 4.2

 

Book slowly improving .. Need Draw at 3.6, to get level.

 

Aus progress after Tea .. 195-4

S.Africa 2.64

Aus 2.78

Draw 3.7

Book almost flat .. Joker played ...

 

Aus 214-4 ... Taking charge

S.Africa 3.10

Aus 2.6

Draw 3.4

 

Drinks .. 18 overs left in the day .. New ball, might be crucial

Aus 237-4

 

S.Africa 3.7

Aus 2.56

Draw 3.0

 

Aus steadily climb, as the new ball, fails to see much change. S.Africa have preserved it a bit, so, it's fairly new in the morning, but, really need wkts.

Aus finish, on 297-4 ... And spreads have them scoring north of 450.

Hard to see S.Africa winning this now .. And if the pitch doesn't quicken up, think the draw will go v low.

End of play prices :

S.Africa 6.2

Aus 2.32

Draw 238

 

I would prefer to lay Aus, than back .. But, for now, am flat, with small green.

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Sporting heroes

As a kid, I am not sure I had a wall .. That was my own, anyway, and never thought about putting up a picture, of someone.

I might have chosen, Bobby Charlton - or someone of that ilk, not even considering cricketers, or, anyone from a different field.

If I had to chose one now, v high on the list, would be Edward O Thorpe.

 

 

He has many claims to fame :

PhD maths / physics.

Developed first Blackjack card counting system

Developed first roulette speed measurement device, to create a 44% edge

Developed statistical arbitrage models, for the stock market

Went on to run Hedge funds, that beat the market, (at one of his former companies, for 227 months, losing in only 3)

Was one of the first, to discover Bernie Madorf was a fraud.

He has written quite a few books, or had them written about him, and would commend anyone, to read :

 

 

During the days, when he was discoveri mathematical models, for beating blackjack, he also discovered significant edges, in the Baccarat side games.

Specifically, when u can bet, the bank or house, will get dealt a natural 8 or 9.

This paper was released, a long time ago, but, it has just been turned into a book :

 

It only available in print, so, haven't got a copy yet, but, a decent analysis of the theory, is here :

http://apheat.net/2013/11/06/a-favorable-side-bet-in-nevada-baccarat-by-thorp-and-walden/

A true legend

 

There is a great interview, by Jack D.Schwager , in his book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, which, I would commend to anyone.

 

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S.Africa v Australia - Test series

( Above is pic of rain from a plane .. Just becos, I like it )

So, anyway ..

A 3 match test series starts quite soon .. With, according to test rankings, the number 1 side, playing number 3.

Number 3, (Aus), just crushed, the mighty England, 12-1, in an assortment of drubbings, so, maybe they are on form .. And it's definately possible, S.Africa are a bit rusty, as they haven't played for a short while.

The 1st test is at Centurion, where, it can definately rain, towards the end of the day.

In the recent past, it's been raining, a bit, during the day .. Which, would be v helpful for draw backers.

With 10 days to the game, rough prices are :

S.Africa 2.44. ( a lay for me )

Aus. 3.4

Draw 3.35 ( in from 3.55, which was probably too big )

 

For now, I expect a close series .. S.Africa have some questions to answer, especially with injuries maybe causing some replacements.

I have the draw onside.

 

Hmm .. 4 days before the action starts, and weather has all cleared up. Pretty much, full days play, on most days, is the current forecast, and Watson looks like missing the 1st Test.

Current prices.

S.Africa 2.30

Australia 3.30

Draw 3.90

Draw looks right, but, can't force myself to take the loss.

It will be an interesting series, between bat and ball. It seems, both sides have better bowlers, than batters, so, big partnerships may not be the order of the week.

Still, am gonna wait, before taking the red.

2 days to go.

Pitch looks green, at least now, but am sure sun will have an impact. Watson definately out .. Maybe Hughes will replace him.

S.Africa 2.26

Australia 3.1

Draw 4.3

Am backing draw at bigger prices .. And will take my lumps.

 

 

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2014 .. A year to enjoy

Been having a break, after a lot of 'stuff' during December.

Poker in Macau, is my main focus for Jan, thou, some other things have hit my radar.

Was v sorry to see 'Trigger' from Only Fools and Horses has died, from Pancreatic Cancer. It has left me faintly stunned, as, I sat next to him, for a good bit of a Test at the Oval, and he seemed in fine spirits. Shows just what a cruel disease, cancer can be.

Managed to hit a few golf courses, and have a 92 in the books. 90 is within sight, and would be well chuffed to card it somewhere.

The casino scene in Macau, is both amazing and, frankly depressing. Its just about casinos .. being a 1hr Ferry ride from Hong Kong, thou, the delays in hotel shuttles/passprt control, make the travel time, nearer to 2 hrs. The casinos themselves, are replicas of the Las Vegas parents, with the only real difference, being the restaurants themed towards Asians, and the table limits, being 2-3 times higher.

The casinos, assign most floor space to Punto Banco, which seems to be the favoured game of the locals, with no Racing/Sportsbook, and only a token interest in providing Blackjack/Roulette/Other Table games. 2 casinos .. the City of Dreams and Wynn, have Poker Rooms, but, not many, and an average wait of 2 hrs for a game, seems the norm. They just not interested .. and u can see why, when so many 'high rollers', sit with $100k plus in front of them, playing punto banco.

I saw 30+ players, have over $200k in front of them, and this wasnt even in private High Limit areas. It, just stunning .. but, u wonder how long it can last, as, lets face it, the casino is fav.

Day 5 - Test - S.Africa v India - Kingsmead

So, the last day, of what's has been an intriguing, and highly competitive 2 match series.

The politics of why its a 2 match series, are frankly beyond me, but I do wonder, about the hold, India appears to have on World cricket.

The last day appears .. Weather wise .. V good.

Not sure of the exact amount of overs to be bowled - it must be 94 or so, will confirm in the morning.

India, currently -98/2 .. So,batting at 3 an over, probably need to see out, 70 overs or so ..

On a 5th day pitch, with S.Africa cautious about conceding cheap runs, it's an intriguing contest .. Especially as S.Africa are clearly so 'up' for it .. Being Kallis's last test.

There has been a marked move, since COP, for the home team.

The current market :

 

S.Africa 2.90

India 100

Draw 1.55

 

The India tail, has proved v fragile .. It may well come under pressure again.

 

07.00 Local

Glorious blue sky, and sun shining brightly.

Should be a full days play .. Hot, bright, with no cloud or rain.

May the best team win ...

 

S.Africa 2.42

India 150

Draw 1.70

Current deficit 98 .. 98 overs left in day.

Wkt !! 1st ball ..Steyn gets Kholi caught for 11 .. India 68-3 ..

Replays suggest he got a bad decision .. But, etc . India, DRS, etc

Steyn remover strikes again !!

Pujara goes for 32 .. India 71-4, 96 overs left, and in big trouble ..

 

 

 

India 80

S.Africa 1.44

Draw 3.2

Heavily with S.Africa ...

 

Wind prevailing from East .. Which is good for no rain .. Cloud cover thin, we should be ok, till v late.

 

Drinks .. India 91-4 .. Trail by 75, 88 overs left.

S.Africa 1.75

 

Sharma goes for 25 .. India 104-5 .. 84 overs left, trail by 60

S.Africa 1.43

 

Drinks 136-5 behind by 30 .. 76 overs left ..

Trying to think, how many India need, to be safe.

If light holds, which is likely, as wind is from east, they probably can't allow S.Africa to bat more than 20 overs. So, if u give S.Africa 100 in those 20, India need to score 130, in next 56 overs or so.

S.Africa 1.54

Dhoni plays a poor shot, and goes for 15 .. India in a heap of trouble.

India 146-6 .. Trail by 20

S.Africa 1.21

Jadeja comes in, hits a 6, then skies one .. India 154-7 ..

S.Africa 1.06

Lunch .. India lead by 7 .. 66 overs left .. 3 wkts needed ..

Weather won't help India ..

India 189-8 .. Lead by 22, 55 overs left .. Not long now ..

Drinks after lunch .. India 197-8 .. Lead by 31, 52 overs, in glorious sunshine.

S.Africa 1.05

India 204-9, lead by 43 .. 50 overs left.

S.Africa 1.02

 

India 223 all out .. S.Africa need 59 to win, in 48 overs ..

///////////////////////////

Just thinking about man of the match, and man of the series. They are both good contests ..

Not sure who I would give nod to .. Cos players have excelled in one game, nothing in another.

I think u have to give it to a S.African player .. Maybe Steyn, maybe Peterson.

Tricky

 

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