On Course/Off Course thoughts

This may be a little deep, but, its a topic that needs debate.

The present UK horse-racing markets, are attended by .. an average, of say 40 licenced bookmakers per-day, who make a market for each race, and the Starting Price for each race, is derived from these (unpaid) professionals.

These bookmakers, all have access to the exchange models, which bet to 101% .. virtually an efficient market, but, have far greater expenses than the Internet, so, not unfairly, they have to build in margin.

Just how much margin, is the rub.

If they bet, for, say 2% per runner, in a 10 horse race, they make take money, but .. informed people, with access to mobile betting platforms, may decide, not to bet in cash on the course, but via their mobile, into an exchange.

If they bet for 1% per runner, they are probably likely to operate at a loss .. not good .. but, would increase the money being attracted to the racecourse, and eventually, will strengthen the rings.

The other debate, is how much money, the on-course ring, attracts from the High Street firms. I am led to believe, these firms, have all but stopped hedging back into the rings .. effectively saying, they don't care, what SP, each race is returned to.

Either, this is because the amount of money traded in betting shops these days, is in such decline, it doesn't matter, or, there are more efficient ways of dealing with it.

So, if you were an on-course bookmaker, what margin, would you put on your board .. ?

Its tricky, and a lot depends, on whether you are thinking short-term, or long-term.

I am a firm believer, rings should bet to an average 10-12% over-round .. but, understand, this is not realistic, an a cold, poorly attended day.

At some stage, racecourses may pay bookmakers to attend, or greatly reduce the costs for standing, .. or, more likely, they will do nothing, believing all bookies make money.

On-course bookies, do not operate cartels, and .. it is a free market, which, often leads to disputes. There is much jealousy in the rings .. its .. easy to take money, in good locations on the race-course, but, its almost impossible, in bad locations .. so, what do you do ?

Good location bookies, will want to bet to a good margin, making profits. Bad locations, wont care, as they take little money, at good or bad profit margins, so, .. normally, either bet to absurd margins .. good or bad.

This gives the rings a bad name .. the public often gets ripped off, knowingly or not ..

(( As an aside, its unreal, how ill-informed some people are .. obviously, they don't care .. betting for v small amounts .. but, often, have taken sizable bets, when, the bookmaker next door .. 2 yards away, is offering a better price))

The whole debate, is a minefield, with each case, aggressively argued by each vested interest.


At a later stage, I will return to this topic, to look at each area, in more detail.

Poker in the Uk

Havent played that much, thou, not for lack of choice.

The structure at my local casino is different, from S.Africa.

The Tourneys all start at 9pm, (later than I would like), and allow re-buys/re-entry, till 11pm, in most of these games, which .. with 60-100 players, means the final table is 3-4pm .. way past my bed-time.

Thats a bit of a shame, as the overall levels of play, is better, than I am used to, and am learning etc, but, the late nights are v draining .. so, have largely avoided.

Will try look for a 2 day .. tourney, which suits my schedule.

YB40 - Durham v Essex

Sunday Trains .. £150 return, for a 4 hr journey .. no thx.

Nice day, and never been to Chester-Le-Street .. one day .. when its not so cold/expensive.

Pre-match,

Durham 1.63

Essex 2.50

...  £15 enty .. was £16 yesteday at Leicester

Essex win the toss, and elect to field.

Durham .. Mustard, Collingwood, Benkenstein, Borthwick

Essex  .. Foster, Quinney, Mahmood, Bopara (Eng recall ??)

Pre-game .. £8k traded


Durham 3-0 after 1, Durham 1.80 .. no liquidity

Durham 3-0 after 2, Essex fav .. 1.90 .. v v thin

Durham 7-0 after 3, Essex 1.88ish

Durham 12-0 after 4, Essex 1.86

Durham 23-0 after 5, Durham favs, in a desperate mkt ..1.8 ? £30k traded

Durham 26-0 after 6

Wkt - Mustard 11 from 19, Essex 1.84

Durham 29-1 after 7, Essex 1.72

Durham 30-1 after 8, Essex 1.68

Durham 37-1 after 9, Essex 1.70

Wkt - Collingwood 7 from 13, Essex 1.50

Durham 39-2 after 10, Essex 1.48

Wkt - Stoneman 18 from 25 .. Essex 1.26

Durham 40-3 after 12, Essex 1.28

Durham 47-3 after 14, Essex 1.32 .. £53k traded

Durham 50-3 after 16, Essex 1.38

Durham 64-3 after 18, Essex 1.42

Durham 78-3 after 20, Essex 1.45

Durham 91-3 after 22, Essex 1.47

Wkt - Benkenstein 16 from 29

Durham 103-4 after 24, Essex 1.35

Durham 117-4 after 26, Essex 1.3x ..

Durham 127-4 after 28, Essex 1.37

Durham 139-4 after 30, Essex 1.40  .. £85k traded

Wkt - Stokes 51 from 64, Durham 140-5 .. Essex 1.32

Durham 147-5 after 32, Essex 1.2x

Durham 160-5 after 34, Essex 1.28

Durham 173-5 after 36, Essex 1.29

Durham 187-5 after 37, Essex 1.3x

Durham 196-5 after 38, Essex 1.40

Durham 200-5 after 39, Essex 1.31

Durham 209-5 after the 40 overs .. Essex 1.33


Probably 25 runs short, but, we will see.


Heres the reply ..

Essex 8-0 after 1, Essex 1.20

Essex 16-0 after 2, Essex 1.15

Essex 24-0 after 3, Essex 1.10

Essex 26-0 after 4, Essex 1.09

Essex 35-0 after 6, Essex 1.10

Essex 48-0 after 8, Essex 1.08 .. no atmosphere, and Tv comms seemed bored.

Essex 60-0 after 10, Essex 1.07


I seen enough .. going to hit some golf balls.


Tiny trades .. small loss ..   £140k traded .. IPL £12m .. so far ...


Hit the ball ok ...

Essex 166-3 after 32, Essex 1.05  .. £270k traded

Essex 178-3 after 34, Essex 1.03

Essex trying to make this harder than it should be :

Essex 199-6 .. need 11 from 17  , Essex 1.04


Essex win

YB40 - Leicesteshire v Gloucestershire

2nd YB 40 game .. Both sides, weakish, with star names of Sarwan, Cobb, Obrien

Bowling on both sides, looks v light.

Some rain around, but it's only thin stuff, and expect a full game.

Leic 1-0 after 1 over, 1.72 Glouc favs .. Overcast

Leic 10-0 after 2, 1.78 gloucs

Leica 20-0 after 3, leic favs 1.88

Leic 34-0 after 4, leic 1.74

Leic 41-0 after 5, leic 1.68 .. V thin mkt

Leic 50-0 after 6, leic 1.64

Leic 52-0 after 7, leic 1.66

Leic 63-0 after 8, leic 1.54 .. Cobb and obrien battin well

Leic 67-0 after 9, leic 1.54

Leic 71-0 after 10, leic 1.55 .. Best start by leic, for a long time - 275 looks possible

Leic 74-0 after 11, leic 1.57 .. No mkt - 98k matched

Leic 83-0 after 12, leic 1.51

Leic 85-0 after 13, leic 1.51

Leic 89-0 after 14, leic 1.52

Leic 103-0 after 15, leic 1.48 .. Cobb 54, obrien 48

Leic 110-0 after 16, 50 for obrien, leic 1.42

Leic 126-0 after 18, leic 1.30

Leic 142-0 after 20, leic 1.25

Leic 162-0 after 22, leic 1.20 .. Not sure gloucs have any ideas, how to stem, coming onslaught.

Leic 178-0 after 24, leic 1.18 .. Leic bowling not the best, but .. This is a big total coming ..

100 for obrien, from 79 balls.

Wkt - obrien 104 from 84, leic 193-1 after 26.2 .. 1.18

Leic 212-1 after 28,leic 1.14

Wkt - Sarwan 8 from 9,leic 1.18

Leic 216-2 after 30, leic 1.20

100 for Cobb, 224-2 after 31.2 .. Leic 1.19

Wkt - Ekersley 10 from 11, 232-3 .. Leic 1.21

Leic 234-3 after 33, leic 1.23

Wkt - Cobb 107 from 99, leic 241-4, after 33.3 .. Leic 1.23

243-4 after 34, power play taken, leic 1.26

Wkt - Thakor 2 from 4, leic stumbling a bit .. 248-5 after 35.2 .. 1.28


Leic 261-5 after 36, leic 1.25

Leic 269-5 after 37, leic 1.26

Wkt - Thornely 4 from 5, 271-6 after 37.2 .. Leic 1.27

Leic 274-6 after 38, leic 1.24

Wkt - Boyce 28 from 20, leic 1.27

Wkt - Sykes 0 from 1, leic 1.29

Leic 279-8 after 39, leic 1.31

Leic finish on 289 .. Not bad, but short of what looked likely, after a v decent start.

Might be a game. Leic 1.27

Have a decent book, £226 k matched so far on Betfair .. IPL getting all the traders .

Klinger and Marshall open for Gloucs

Here's the reply.

Gloucs 2-0 after 1, leics 1.28

Wkt - Marshall 1 from 5, leics 1.17

Gloucs 8-1 after 2, leics 1.17

Gloucs 14-1 after 3, leics 1.14

Wkt - run- out .. Dent 4 .. Gloucs 15-2 .. Leics 1.06

Gloucs 19-2 after 4, leics 1.06

Wkt - Gidman 4 from 1, Leics 1.04

Wkt - another run- out, and this is done.

Klinger 15 from 10, 27-4 after 5,leics1.01

Gloucs 38-4 after 8, leics 1.00


Seen enough ..

Just seen a fantastic link from the Leicestershire foxes, 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU4lHaWqadM

This is the first time I have seen social media used in this way ..

Great work.

YB40 - Essex v Hampshire

1st game of the new season :

Traded / matched figs on Betfair ..

30 mins before the start ..£ 3k

Hampshire probably win the toss, (am not really watching), but have shorted from 1.85 to 1.76

5 mins to go .. £12k traded .. this is poor ..

Hampshire did win the toss, and elected to field.

9 overs in, Essex 39-0 .. 1.88 .. £26k traded .. which, is eye-wateringly low.

For a game on sky etc .. IPL major draw .. market-makers/seeders required, but, they have no reason for doing so, so, dont.

Essex scored a decentish, 244 .. on a high-scoring, small ground, and Carbury/Vince, just toy with the the opposition, to get Hampshire home, with 10 overs to spare. Huge win for Hampshire.

Total matched, £1m.

 

Posted with Blogsy

Ascot

This is a proper Grade 1 Track ..

We got in, 2 hours before racing .. (Bookies need to be there, 1 hour before racing, to be able to 'claim' your pitch ..), and it is great, they now have a drop-off point, where bookies can drop off all the kit, and not have to lug it all from the car-parks.

This kit, normally includes ;

A Digital Board
1 or 2 heavy duty batteries, to power the board/printers
Assorted printers
Assorted signs / name plates
Sometimes, a joint .. which self-assembles .. thou you can rent, for £25 a day

We had a fair drive thru, negotiating via some back-roads, which only taxi-drivers and bookies know.

We had high hopes .. as the car-parks were v busy, 2 hours before the first race.

Our kit, had some issues .. the bracket which holds the digital joint, was badly drilled, so it wouldnt fit properly. There is no-wi-fi on the course .. at least for us, and getting a cell-signal, is v tricky. The laptop software, was faulty .. so, all these problems, were both draining and an inconvenience.

Unfortunately, 'free' day, encourages locals to have a day-out in the sun, and just cruise, and it wasn't really a betting crowd .. so, although we had paid £60k for our pitch .. (14 days racing, a year), takings were v average, and results were poor, (including a winner for The Queen), so, we lost. It didnt help, about 70 other bookmakers turned out .. encouraged, as it was free-to-bet .. there were just too many bookies, for the crowd.

Am not really sure, the £60k was a good investment .. there are 2 meetings, next Friday night/Saturday, which will be a better guide, but, at this stage, its a disappointment.

All-in, we left, at 9.00am, and got back, at 8pm. Spent £700 in expenses, and lost betting .. so, have some headway, to make-up.

Racecouse thoughts

On the way to Ascot .. got a very decent pitch, in tattersalls, and its fee entry for the public.

This is a big deal, for racecourse's ..

Currently, most racecourses charge between £12 and £26 for Tattersalls entry, with just Towcester racecourse, to my knowledge, being free entry, every day. (I am a big fan, of Towcester .. its a v well run course, who get good attendances, and make a return from a great hospitality business, and selling the picture rights/food concessions).

As this is the fist race day of the season, Ascot have given locals, free entry passes, and a big crowd, of maybe 10000, is expected .. especially as summer, may be finally on its way.

Ascot is a grade 1 track, which spent .. maybe £40 million on a re-design, some years ago, and really decent races are run. We have only occasionally, bet there before, and it will be an interesting day .. especially as its a southern track, and people who come, might be expected to have a few bets.

There are many things currently wrong with the racing structure in the UK. Each vested interest, will have their own favourite, but some of mine, are :

1. Starting Price .. manipulation.

The reader should understand, betting shops are relayed the current betting prices, on events such as greyhounds/horses, from the bookmaker's working at those meetings.

These bookies, work to a betting over-round, of probably 1-2% per runner .. so, a 6 horse race, might have a 10% over-round, whilst a 20 runner race, might be 20%.

A 6 dog greyhound race, will always have an over-round of 20%, and its just theft.

On many occasions, a dog will be showing .. say 4/1, and this is the price, that's being bet, up and down the country, in the 8000 betting shops. On Betfair, the dog will usually be bigger, sometimes much, much bigger.
Last week, I saw a dog, that was 17/1 on Betfair .. and just 7/2 in the shops.

This cannot be right .. its blatant theft.

I understand a bookie has to have a profit margin, but, the un-informed many, need to be protected.

SP has to include the betting exchange mechanism, like it or not.


2. Bookmakers terms, are not uniform.

Generally, in a 8 horse race, each-way terms, are 1/5th the price, for a place. Some races, (normally, when the favourite is odds-on, these terms are unprofitable for bookmakers), and racecourse bookies, can legally change the terms .. as long as they are displayed. So, they might go, 1/7th the odds a place .. which is probably more realistic.

The problem is, all bookmakers bet differently, and its easy for the general public to get ripped-off - especially if they are casual punters. I am sure, standardised each-way terms will come, soon .. but, its already been too long.

3.Betting shops, wont lay a bet.

This a a thorny one, as these firms are now run by bean counters, who understand, their overheads, and want to dissuade professionals from betting, with them.

The bean counter will say, he wants to lay, the horse, or whatever, to a regular mug, who will more than likely, lose it back, on other bets. This makes business sense, but, gives the racing industry, a bad image ..

If a horse is available, at 7/2, to a mug, it should be laid to lose .. say £50, to anyone. I understand, people can walk round, the v many betting shops, placing bets in each one, and v significant liabilities can accrue, but, that's a process, the betting shops, need to manage - thru the pricing mechanism.